Summary of Conference Call on Express Delivery Industry in Guangdong Province Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in Guangdong Province is experiencing a collective price increase among major companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Yunda, driven by rising costs and upcoming social insurance policies [1][25]. - The average daily express delivery volume in Guangdong Province is 129 million packages, with significant contributions from Guangzhou (60 million), Shenzhen (35 million), and Jieyang (30 million) [2][20]. Key Points and Arguments Price Adjustments - Major express companies have raised their minimum prices to above 1.4 yuan per kilogram, with a 15-day price lock period to stabilize the market [1][6]. - Zhongtong's minimum price increased from 1.48 yuan to 1.4 yuan, while Yuantong's rose from 1.45 yuan to 1.4 yuan [9][30]. - The price adjustments are expected to last until the end of the year, with potential for a new price war in 2026, particularly for packages weighing between 0.4 to 3 kilograms [34]. Market Dynamics - Different companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the price hikes. For instance, Yuantong has canceled its excess return policy to enhance profitability, as small packages constitute a significant portion of its business [7][8]. - The price increase may lead to a shift in e-commerce logistics, with manufacturers potentially relocating warehouses to lower-cost regions like Hebei and Henan [1][18]. Regulatory Oversight - The State Post Bureau has established supervisory groups to monitor compliance with the new pricing policies, focusing on data analysis rather than extensive on-site inspections [12][13]. - The regulatory framework aims to prevent price gouging and ensure fair competition among express delivery brands [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is expected to intensify in the higher weight segments (above 0.3 kg) during the price lock period, despite the minimum price regulations for lighter packages [11][16]. - The express delivery market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected daily volume of 560 million packages by 2025, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [26][27]. Additional Important Insights - The price differences among companies are minimal, which may limit the potential for significant profit margins and complicate market dynamics [14][30]. - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a necessary step to prepare for the implementation of new social insurance policies, which could further impact operational costs [25][34]. - The potential for market consolidation exists, but the current growth rate and capacity constraints suggest that no single brand will dominate the market [26][27]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in Guangdong is undergoing significant changes due to price adjustments and regulatory oversight, with implications for market competition and logistics strategies. The expected growth in delivery volume presents both opportunities and challenges for the companies involved.

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a rise of over 1%, with expectations for increased refrigerant demand as the new cooling season begins, despite a seasonal decline in August [1] - Hong Kong's banking stocks experienced a rally, with Agricultural Bank (01288) up over 2%, and other banks like ICBC (01398) and China Merchants Bank (03968) also gaining over 1%. The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, and profit growth is expected to continue [1] - In the gold sector, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose over 3%, with other companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) and Shandong Gold (01787) also seeing significant gains, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. job growth data which increased interest in gold [3] Group 2: Company Announcements - InnoCare (02577) surged over 8% after being named the only Chinese chip company in NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture collaboration, indicating a significant partnership in AI data centers [2] - Derun Shipping (02510) announced a profit forecast of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a 220% to 255% increase compared to the previous year [2] - China Eastern Education (00667) reported an expected profit increase of no less than 45% for the first half of the year, driven by a 7% increase in new student registrations and effective cost control [3] Group 3: Financial Results - Amazon (AMZN.US) reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with AWS revenue growing 17% year-over-year, but the third-quarter profit guidance fell short of market expectations [5] - Coinbase (COIN.US) saw a 16.7% drop after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.5 billion, which was below analyst expectations, despite a significant profit increase due to investments [5] - Moderna (MRNA.US) experienced a decline of over 10% due to delays in vaccine shipments, leading to a downward revision of its revenue forecast for 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of August 4, 2025, highlighting significant players in the industry and their respective valuations in billions of USD [1]. Group 1: Top Companies by Market Capitalization - TSMC leads the ranking with a market capitalization of $121.99 billion [3]. - Tencent Holdings follows in second place with a valuation of $63.46 billion [3]. - Alibaba ranks third with a market cap of $27.92 billion [3]. - Xiaomi Group is fourth with a market capitalization of $18.07 billion [3]. - Pinduoduo holds the fifth position with a valuation of $15.62 billion [3]. Group 2: Additional Notable Companies - Meituan ranks sixth with a market cap of $9.45 billion [4]. - NetEase is seventh with a valuation of $8.06 billion [4]. - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) is eighth with a market cap of $5.24 billion [4]. - Dongfang Fortune ranks ninth with a valuation of $5.11 billion [4]. - JD.com is in tenth place with a market capitalization of $4.46 billion [4]. Group 3: Rankings and Changes - Kuaishou is ranked eleventh with a market cap of $4.16 billion [5]. - Tencent Music holds the twelfth position with a valuation of $3.18 billion [5]. - Baidu is thirteenth with a market cap of $2.96 billion [5]. - Li Auto ranks fourteenth with a valuation of $2.70 billion [5]. - Beike is fifteenth with a market capitalization of $2.17 billion, showing an increase in ranking by 11 spots [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]

| ZTO 中通快递 | | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | | １９．６９０ ↓ -0.290 -1.45% | | | | 20.610 ↑ 0.920 +4.67% | | 盘前价 08/01 04:15 美东 | | 盤 ½ 24 じ Ｓ Ｓ 同 ♥ 自选 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 19.830 | 开盘价 19.300 | 成交量 280.09万 | | 最低价 19.030 | 昨收价 19.980 | 成交额 5490.96万 | | 平均价 19.604 | 市盈率 TM 12.45 | 总市值 157.47亿 (…) | | 振 幅 4.00% | 市盈率(静) 13.25 | 总股本 8亿 | | 换手率 0.68% | 市净率 1.822 | 流通值 80.69亿 | | 52周最高 26.960 委 比 -- | | 流通股 4.1亿 | | 52周最低 16.019 | 量 比 1.22 | 色 手 1 股 | | 历史最高 35.363 | 股息TTM 0.957 换股比率 1.00 | | | 历史最低 9.624 | 股息率TM 4.860% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the State Post Bureau highlighted two major issues in the express delivery industry: escalating "involution" competition and persistent illegal charges in rural areas [1][3][4] Group 1: Involution Competition - The State Post Bureau has reiterated its stance against "involution" competition, emphasizing the need for express companies to enhance compliance awareness and establish long-term mechanisms to mitigate risks [4][6] - The price war in the industry has severely impacted profit margins, with the average express delivery price dropping by 8.2% year-on-year to 7.5 yuan in the first five months of 2025, despite a 19.3% increase in business volume [6][7] - Historical context shows that the price war began in 2005 and has intensified over the years, particularly with the entry of new players like Jitu [6][10] Group 2: Rural Delivery Issues - Illegal charges in rural express delivery have become a significant concern, with various forms of unauthorized fees being reported, such as forced delivery charges and unreasonable fees for package retrieval [8][9] - The issue of "last mile" delivery in rural areas is critical for enhancing the quality of life for farmers and promoting rural economic development, as highlighted in the central government's policy [9][10] - Recent actions by postal management departments across multiple regions aim to address the issue of illegal charges, with significant penalties imposed on violators [10][11][12] Group 3: Industry Responses and Innovations - Leading companies are exploring differentiated strategies to overcome the challenges posed by involution competition, with Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics being a notable example [10] - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are leveraging technology to improve service efficiency and delivery capabilities, moving towards value creation rather than price competition [10][11] - Local governments are focusing on building comprehensive logistics service stations in villages to address the "last mile" delivery challenges and improve service quality [11][12]

华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 智通财经获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿港 元。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿 港元。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 ...