Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the discretionary cosmetics industry Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival showed robust growth, with total sales across integrated e-commerce, instant retail, and community group buying reaching 855.6 billion yuan, 29.6 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 18.7%, and -9.1% [1][17] - The overall transaction volume of major platforms increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with Taobao/Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou accounting for 48.7%, 19.3%, 18.4%, 10.1%, and 3.6% of GMV respectively [1][17] - The beauty category on major e-commerce platforms achieved a GMV of 60-70 billion yuan during the 618 period, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the 618 festival from May 13 to June 18, 2025, reached 855.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% across major platforms [1][17] - Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10% year-on-year, with 453 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2][18] Platform Insights - Douyin saw over 60,000 brands doubling their transaction amounts year-on-year, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2][18] - JD.com led the industry with over 100% growth in user orders, achieving a record high in daily active users [2][18] Market Share and Brand Rankings - Tmall maintained a 41.3% market share in the beauty category, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD.com at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][19] - The top brands in the beauty and skincare category on Tmall included Pechoin, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Skinceuticals, with Skinceuticals entering the top five for the first time [1][19] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the makeup and perfume category was intense, with YSL topping the list, followed by Caitang and Mao Ge Ping [1][19] - On Douyin, the beauty and skincare category saw 34 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a significant increase of 88.9% year-on-year [1][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly for low-priced consumer goods and imported durable goods due to ongoing uncertainties and potential economic risks [5]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index rebounded significantly in June, reaching 60.5, up 15.9% from May's 52.2, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8][9]. - Retail sales in May 2025 were $715.42 billion, a 0.9% month-over-month decline, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [9]. - Inflation data showed a mild increase in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations, but long-term inflation risks remain [11][13]. - Employment data showed a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, but revisions indicated a slowdown in job growth [15][19]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index rebounded in June, reflecting a recovery from previous declines, with inflation expectations decreasing from 6.6% to 5.1% [8]. - Retail sales data for May showed a significant decline, particularly in durable goods, as the demand normalized following a previous surge [9]. - Inflation data indicated a mild increase, with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, but long-term inflation concerns persist due to potential tariff impacts [11][13]. - Employment data showed a stable job market, but with signs of sectoral divergence, particularly in manufacturing and services [15][17]. Essential Consumption - Beverage and tobacco sectors outperformed the market, with beverage sales showing resilience, while alcoholic beverages and dairy products continued to underperform [2][34]. - Alcoholic beverage retail sales in April were $5.63 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, but overall sales volume continued to decline [2][29]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a stable but lackluster performance [34]. - Beverage shipments reached $11.97 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, showcasing strong demand in essential categories [34]. Optional Consumption - The restaurant sector showed resilience with retail sales of $97.36 billion in May, a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, but a month-over-month decline of 0.9% [39]. - Department store sales in May were $76.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, but a continued weakening trend [42]. - Apparel retail sales reached $26.18 billion in May, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, but a decline in momentum due to the end of pre-tariff purchasing [44]. Market Performance - The consumer sector saw a broad rally in May, with significant gains in essential and discretionary categories, although valuations remain at historical highs [4]. - The consumer discretionary ETF saw a net inflow of $553 million, while the essential consumer ETF had a net inflow of $522 million, indicating investor interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a cautious approach towards the consumer sector, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic growth [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Gujing Distillery Company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2]. Core Views - The baijiu industry maintains its rigid demand attributes, with long-term strategies focused on creating high-quality famous baijiu. Despite facing cyclical adjustments, the social and cultural significance of baijiu ensures its essential demand [3][12]. - The company plans to optimize its product structure and enhance its high-end offerings to capture the upgrading consumer demographic while reinforcing the banquet attributes of its products [3][12]. - Historical revenue and profit performance have been strong, with total revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 20% from 2021 to 2023. Although growth is expected to slow in 2024, the company remains a leader in the industry [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are Rmb 23.58 billion, Rmb 24.15 billion, Rmb 25.43 billion, and Rmb 26.79 billion, respectively, with a growth rate of 16% in 2024 [2][10]. - Net profit is expected to be Rmb 5.52 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 20% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 79.9% to 79.6% from 2024 to 2027 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain a revenue share of over 60% in its home province of Anhui while expanding its market presence in key regions such as Henan and Jiangsu [4][15]. - The focus will be on consolidating its market position in Anhui and gradually expanding to other provinces using a targeted approach [4][15]. Dividend and Valuation - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 57.5%, with a projected increase to over 70% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield exceeding 5.4% [5][16]. - The target price for the company is set at Rmb 191, based on a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending attention to high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [5]. Core Insights - The AI technology giants are adjusting their investment pace in data centers, with Microsoft delaying some early projects but expected to resume construction after the fiscal year ends, potentially driving demand in 2025 [2][15]. - The U.S. gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stable demand in the industrial sector [3][56]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted a strong recovery in the commercial aviation market, with significant orders reflecting the industry's resilience [23][24]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Major cloud service providers are adjusting their investment strategies, with Microsoft and Amazon accelerating procurement for large clients while Google increases its hosting expenditures [15]. Energy Construction - Michigan regulators are pushing for reliability improvements from Consumers Energy and DTE Electric, emphasizing the need for better vegetation management and equipment replacement [19][20]. - The UK government announced a £14.2 billion investment in a nuclear power plant to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, with a capacity of 3.2GW [21]. Aerospace - The Paris Air Show showcased advancements in military aircraft and green aviation technologies, with a focus on sustainable solutions [23][24]. - The U.S. aircraft engine manufacturing price index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand in the aerospace sector [25][28]. Defense - The report notes significant defense contracts, including the potential $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, which could become one of the largest defense contracts globally [33][34]. - The EU's new defense funding plan aims to streamline investment rules to enhance member states' defense capabilities by 2030 [33]. Robotics - The global installation of industrial robots in 2023 was 541,302 units, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [36][42]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a modest increase, indicating stable market conditions for industrial equipment [37]. Industrial Equipment - The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. rose by 2.5% month-on-month in May 2025, reflecting increased production costs [43]. - China's transformer exports reached 45.8 billion yuan in April 2025, marking a 34% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand in international markets [65].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Great Wall Motor, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Viewpoints - Great Wall Motor emphasizes a long-term strategy focused on building a high-value vehicle portfolio for global expansion, prioritizing product and service reliability over rapid growth [2][7]. - The company aims to deepen its multi-powertrain platform strategy, promoting "one vehicle, multiple powertrains" to cater to diverse market needs, especially in regions with limited electricity infrastructure [2][8]. - In 2024, Great Wall anticipates vehicle sales of 1.23 million units, a 0.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue projected at RMB 202.2 billion, reflecting a 16.7% growth, and net profit expected to reach RMB 12.69 billion, marking an 80.8% increase [2][7]. - The company's globalization strategy focuses on "ecological overseas expansion," with over 1,400 overseas sales channels and cumulative exports surpassing 1.9 million units, targeting over one million units in overseas sales by 2030 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Strategy - Great Wall Motor reaffirms its commitment to long-termism, aiming for high-quality market share and product reliability, even at the cost of slower growth [2][7]. - The company plans to launch several key models in 2025, including the Tank SUV for urban markets, alongside expanding its product matrix with WEY, Haval, ORA, and pickup series [2][8]. Performance Metrics - In 2024, Great Wall expects to achieve vehicle sales of 1.23 million units, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, with revenue projected at RMB 202.2 billion, up 16.7%, and net profit anticipated at RMB 12.69 billion, an increase of 80.8% [2][7]. Brand Development - WEY, as a key brand in Great Wall's premium strategy, has shown significant growth, with May sales reaching 6,161 units, a 115.3% year-on-year increase, and cumulative deliveries of 24,297 units in the first five months, up 44% [3][9]. - The brand is enhancing its product and design competitiveness through increased R&D and marketing investments, and is expected to drive growth through product diversification and ecological globalization [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the industrial software industry, actively promoting AI-enabled innovations in the steel industry and building a self-controlled industrial software system through its self-developed platform [1][17] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 147.38 billion, 163.47 billion, and 183.68 billion yuan respectively [3][12] - The report highlights the company's focus on AI applications in the steel industry, integrating vast amounts of data and expertise to create comprehensive AI solutions [7][22] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 12,916 million yuan, with a slight decline of 1.8% from the previous year, followed by a growth of 5.6% in 2024 [3][26] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 2,554 million yuan, with a significant increase of 16.8% from the previous year, but a decline of 11.3% is anticipated in 2024 [3][26] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.84 yuan, with a projected increase to 1.18 yuan by 2027 [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - Software development business is the main revenue source, expected to generate 99.11 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 72.64% of total revenue [7][11] - Service outsourcing business is projected to contribute 36.56 billion yuan in 2024, representing 26.80% of total revenue [8][11] - System integration equipment business is a non-core segment, expected to generate only 0.65 billion yuan in 2024 [9][11] Growth Drivers - The company is leveraging AI to drive innovation in the steel industry, with over 100 AI application instances developed [7][22] - The industrial robot market is expected to grow at an annual rate of over 15%, with the company actively developing humanoid robots for various applications [40] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-controlled industrial automation as a core guarantee for development [39] Valuation Analysis - The report uses both PE and PS valuation methods, estimating a reasonable valuation of 969.99 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 33.64 yuan per share [12][14] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the market due to its strong self-developed platform and strategic positioning in AI and industrial robotics [14][22]

Investment Rating - Rating: Outperform [1] - Target Price: RMB 114.94 [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on AI and cloud computing, with both sectors contributing nearly half of its revenue. The launch of the AICP platform and products like XaaS and security GPT are key developments [1][5] - The company is expected to maintain growth driven by increased demand for cloud services and a turning point in cybersecurity, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at RMB 0.77, RMB 1.18, and RMB 1.54 respectively [5][15] - The report highlights a recovery in growth for Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year revenue increases and a focus on enhancing product quality and innovation [5][16] Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a slight decline in 2024 to RMB 7.52 billion, followed by growth to RMB 8.08 billion in 2025, and reaching RMB 10.07 billion by 2027 [3][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly from RMB 197 million in 2024 to RMB 649 million by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][6] - The company’s gross profit margins for security and cloud services are 79.31% and 44.24% respectively, indicating robust profitability in these segments [5][17] Strategic Focus - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in XaaS and AI, while also expanding its market reach to key industry clients and overseas markets [5][19] - Future strategies include focusing on key production lines, promoting innovation in AI and cybersecurity, and strengthening organizational capabilities [5][20] - The company aims to deepen its channel system and improve management efficiency to boost profitability over the next 3-5 years [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.59 CNY per share based on a 2026 PE valuation of 80 times [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic digital technology sector, with a forward-looking layout in the legal fintech sector. The rebound in core business, efficiency improvements from AI mediation, and the rapid expansion of diversified dispute resolution services are expected to drive performance growth beyond expectations [1][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 9.41 billion, 11.53 billion, and 13.77 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.07, 0.27, and 0.46 CNY [3][5]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 25% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 34.6%, 22.5%, and 19.4% in the subsequent years [3][5]. Business Segments - The company focuses on three main business segments: Smart Scene Solutions, Smart Building Solutions, and Big Data & Cloud Platform Services. Each segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with Smart Scene Solutions projected to recover and grow rapidly [9][24]. - The diversified dispute resolution platform launched in 2022 has seen explosive growth, with revenue from mediation services expected to exceed 45 million CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of over 220% [5][9]. Strategic Collaborations - The company is actively participating in the construction of digital courts in collaboration with various courts and the Supreme Court, leveraging AI technologies to enhance judicial processes [5][9]. - A strategic partnership with Alibaba Cloud has been established to create an AI innovation base for the judicial industry, aiming to develop AI-driven solutions for legal applications [5][9]. Market Positioning - The company has a strong market presence with over 20 branches nationwide and a workforce of more than 700 employees, focusing on sectors such as government, judiciary, education, healthcare, and finance [20][24]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to integrating new technologies like big data, blockchain, and AI into its service offerings, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating and adjusts the target price to RMB 290.30 [4][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of the database industry, with significant growth projected in revenue and net profit for 2024 and 2025 [4][10]. - The report highlights strong performance in the energy and transportation sectors, with notable increases in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 [4][10]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation, particularly in distributed databases, AI, and cloud-native technologies, which are driving product upgrades [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 794 million in 2023 to RMB 1,044 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from RMB 296 million in 2023 to RMB 362 million in 2024, a growth of 22.2% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 4.32, with a projected price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 25x [4][10]. Business Performance - In 2024, the company's main business segments, including government, energy, transportation, and finance, are expected to see growth, particularly in energy and transportation [4][10]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is anticipated to increase by 36.95% year-on-year, driven by higher sales returns and order growth [4][10]. - Revenue from software authorization is projected to grow by 22.79%, while maintenance services revenue is expected to increase by 38.50% [4][10]. Technological Development - The report notes successful R&D progress in distributed databases, with practical applications and further developments in high concurrency and multi-tenancy technologies [4][10]. - The company aims to enhance its database technology through AI and cloud-native innovations, focusing on integrated distributed architecture and multi-modal data fusion [4][10].