锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/10 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,724.00 | -8.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,434.00 | -28.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 630,101.00 | -6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand weakness. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, but the demand is also weakening as the first shipment of Australian rapeseed may be crushed this month and the demand for aquaculture decreases with the temperature drop. Additionally, the domestic soybean auction news is negative for the domestic meal market, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and whether the China - Canada trade policy can make a breakthrough [2] - The rapeseed oil market continues to digest the negative news of the higher - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production and the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Although the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to supply restrictions, the sufficient supply of soybean oil with a good substitution advantage keeps the rapeseed oil demand at a rigid level. As a result, the futures price of rapeseed oil continues to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9443 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2329 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 633.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.4 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5508 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 290 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 69 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 90128 lots, down 18419 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 579248 lots, up 26385 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 19107 lots, down 4591 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 89134 lots, up 4358 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3490 sheets, down 231 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7708.91 yuan/ton, up 60.44 yuan; the spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.96, down 0.04; the basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0 tons, down 100 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 449 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4276 thousand tons, down 67.4 thousand tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.93%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79% [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 10.4%, down 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.71%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 9.72%, down 1.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.96%, up 0.17% [2] Industry News - On December 9 (Tuesday), the ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, ending an eight - day losing streak. The January rapeseed futures contract closed 6.20 Canadian dollars higher at 619.90 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 5.70 Canadian dollars to 631.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans have entered the export season with sufficient supply in the short term, and the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and the price of US soybeans has fallen from recent highs [2] - The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market forecast of 2.66 million tons. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days is still declining, and the export is still weak, which drags down the price of Malaysian palm oil [2]

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-12-10 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 进一步减少对纯碱的重碱需求。不过，目前玻璃厂家库存多降至低位，价格稳定为主，若下游采购情绪改 善，可能对纯碱需求有一定带动，但整体来看，玻璃对纯碱需求的拉动作用在短期内较为有限且存在下行 风险。今日纯碱继续下行迹象，跌破前期低位支撑，整体受到需求不佳影响，后续关注整数关口1000支撑 位。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1094 130 | -31 玻璃主力合约收盘价( ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 117090 | -260 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -150 | 120 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14750 | -135 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 102583 | -5403 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -21430 | 4631 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 252528 | -816 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 42508 | 1726 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 9054 | -882 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 34235 | -126 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 119150 | -1200 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 119050 | -1400 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Suggest light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 183,582 lots, down 781 lots; the position of the main contract was 605,453 lots, up 30,032 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was - 760 yuan/ton, down 2,100 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZEX was 13,680 lots/ton, up 760 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, down 3,230 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,170 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 10,025 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume was 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2] Option Situation - The total call position was 114,079 lots, up 6,315 lots; the total put position was 77,882 lots, up 3,650 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 68.27%, down 0.6136%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Qinghai Province plans to build a world - class modern salt - lake industrial system and develop a salt - lake resource industry worth hundreds of billions [2] - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2] - In 2025, global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of 2.2 trillion US dollars) to a record of 35 trillion US dollars [2] - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the retail industry should focus on quality and service - driven development [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, up 2.56% at the close. The position increased, the spot was at a discount to the futures, and the basis weakened [2] - On the fundamentals, the price of lithium ore weakened slightly. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand has become more active [2] - In the option market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines near the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2]

铝类产业日报 2025/12/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,935.00 -130.00 | +160.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -40.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,477.00 -51.00 | -69.00↓ -14.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 185,806.00 | -9920.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 278,854.00 | -3226.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 37,900.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 259,955.00 | -903.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,845.50 | -41.00↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 523,300.00 | -2500.00↓ | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of industrial silicon continued to decline due to supply factors today, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From the supply side, in Southwest China, the dry season in Yunnan and Sichuan has led to a significant increase in electricity prices, high production costs, and a sharp decline in the operating rate. In Northwest China, production maintains a high - operating state, offsetting the output contraction in the Southwest. However, it is necessary to focus on whether there are fluctuations in the operating rate in the Northwest next week [2]. - From the demand side, the actual demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon, organic silicon, and exports is insufficient, and only the demand from the aluminum alloy field is relatively stable, but it is difficult to change the overall weak demand pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 171,757 lots, a decrease of 13,514 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 29,059 lots, an increase of 91 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots; the price difference between the January - February contracts was - 10 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 950 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 451,660 tons, an increase of 48,860 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 22.28 tons, a decrease of 1,917.57 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.34 tons, a decrease of 25,159.39 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 16.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons, an increase of 7,427.67 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Several Measures for Promoting High - Quality Green and Low - Carbon Development (Version 2.0)", which mentioned promoting the large - scale development of distributed photovoltaics, with the proportion of photovoltaic installation on factory roofs in new industrial plant projects not less than 50% [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) 605 | 55915 | 305 1月-2月合约收盘价价差 | 185 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) 47665 | 54959 | -13915 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 395 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) -3615 | 52300 | 0 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -305 | | | 平均价:N型硅片:210R(日,元/片) 6.5 | 1.18 | 0 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) 45073.34 | 8250 | -90 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | -25159.39 | | | 品种现货价:工业硅(日,元/吨) 22.28 | 9200 | 0 进口数量:工业硅(月,吨) | -1917.57 | | | 工业硅:产量(月,吨) 55.2 | 451660 | 48 ...

波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10605 | 155 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 80546 | 4137 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -30 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 4340 | 0 | | | | 10500 | 0 | 10450 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term industrial compound fertilizer has high operation rate and continuous demand. There are still some reserve gaps, and the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2]. - The reserve demand has temporarily stopped to wait and see due to the too - fast increase in urea prices. The compound fertilizer operation rate has increased month - on - month, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand gradually increases [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1645 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, up 0.644 yuan; the position volume is 142,791 lots, down 7,855 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5,324; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11,228 sheets, down 249 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract basis is 55 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operation rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operation rate is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the melamine operation rate is 61.66%, up 0.86% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2342 billion tons, down 563,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5%. There are expectations of continuous container collection for exports, but due to restrictions such as the flow of goods and factory inspections, the current container collection rhythm is still slow, and the arrival volume at most ports has not been concentrated [2]. - As of December 4, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3851 billion tons, down 319,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate is 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period, and the trend continues to decline [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operation rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]