Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously overhauled facilities have resumed operation, leading to a slight increase in domestic urea production. With 2 companies' facilities planned to shut down and 1 shut - down facility possibly resuming production this week, considering short - term malfunctions, the production change is expected to be limited [2] - Recent reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily [2] - Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are in the final stage of shipping. Main production and sales areas' mainstream urea factories have slightly accumulated inventory this week, but Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are still showing obvious destocking due to reserve demand from the northwest and northeast. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the short - term order intake of urea factories is good. There is a possibility of further destocking [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, with a 16 - yuan increase; the 1 - 5 spread is - 37 yuan/ton, with a 6 - yuan increase [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 64839 lots, a decrease of 17154 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11394, an increase of 3340 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 11202 sheets, a decrease of 12 sheets [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1700 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Anhui is 1660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 347.5 US dollars/ton and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, remaining unchanged [2] - The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons from last week, a 4.42% decrease. The inventory decline is mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China [2] - As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous period, a 17.14% increase. The current export land collection and port - calling process has slightly accelerated, and some ports have received goods successively [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate has widened month - on - month. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire manufacturers are cautious in replenishing stocks, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment and low overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, the resumption of production by previously overhauled enterprises has driven a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous rise of finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises undergoing maintenance or reducing production in the later stage. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,650 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,390 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,570 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,820 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146,495 lots, up 14,415 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 61,828 lots, up 2,594 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,266 lots, up 1,040 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,485 lots, up 428 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 87,160 tons, up 2,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 59,573 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,930 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 545 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.36%, up 0.67 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.76%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises may still show a slight accumulation in the short - term. The port inventory of methanol decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but the shutdown and maintenance of an olefin plant in Zhejiang continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic trade vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was acceptable, and the inventory increased slightly. The market should continue to pay attention to the unloading of foreign vessels. - The operation of MTO industry declined. Although the production load of the newly - put - into - operation MTO device of Lianhong Gerun will gradually increase in the short - term, considering the previously shut - down and overhauled devices, the industry operation is still expected to decline. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2180 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 874,732 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21,895 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 133,848 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,709, a week - on - week decrease of 726. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1955 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 245 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 830,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 7.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 0.55%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25%. - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,400 tons. - Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the production capacity output due to recovery, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant. Affected by the previous snowfall and the concentrated return of goods from downstream enterprises during the week, the loading and shipping rhythm of upstream enterprises slowed down. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. The Ningbo Fude plant was under maintenance, and the Qinghai Salt Lake plant was shut down after a short - term start - up, resulting in a decline in the operation of the MTO industry. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and there are rumors of increased future supply. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply structure due to the failure of China - Canada trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs and oil mills being shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase with Australian rapeseed arrivals and rumors of inquiries for Canadian rapeseed. The ample supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, with the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil down 35 yuan/ton and that of rapeseed meal up 10 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders decreased. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 50, and that of rapeseed meal remained at 0 [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu, average rapeseed oil price, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05. The basis of the main rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal contracts increased. The spot prices of substitute products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal decreased, and the price differences between rapeseed oil and its substitutes also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 1.31 million tons. The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 0, a decrease of 11.53 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased by 0.1 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 2 tons, while the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 6.29 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal and East China's rapeseed oil inventories decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas remained unchanged and that in South China increased. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil increased by 0.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.45 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed decreased by 171.7 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil decreased by 67.4 tons. The monthly retail sales of catering increased by 690.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal decreased, while the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed meal increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed oil also increased [2]. Industry News - On December 16, the ICE rapeseed futures continued to decline, with the most actively traded March contract down 4.00 Canadian dollars. During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The US soybean futures price has fallen from its high due to China's slowdown in procurement [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed meal is tightening domestically, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakened by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed oil is structurally tightening, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed oil is mainly at a basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices remain low and the breeding end is still in a loss state, with poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is favorable for forward prices. However, the current in - production inventory of laying hens remains high, the elimination of old hens has slowed down slightly, and high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contract may be in a wide - range shock state, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3092 yuan/500 kilograms, down 22 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 40001 lots, up 752 lots; the monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of egg futures is - 443 yuan/500 kilograms, down 23 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 76366 lots, down 1830 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.09 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 4 yuan/500 kilograms, up 22 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.24 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.02; the national eliminated laying hen index is 114.44 (with 2015 = 100), down 10.19; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, down 0.05 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 67.09 (with 2015 = 100), down 9.56; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the breeding profit per laying hen is - 0.36 yuan, down 0.06 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.94 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan; the average age of eliminated chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.43 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.93 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.82 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, down 0.04 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, down 0.05 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7127 tons, up 12 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.84 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - Globally, the U.S. corn is in the export season with high supply pressure, and the global and U.S. corn supply - demand is still relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the U.S. corn's 2025/26 carry - over inventory forecast supports U.S. corn prices [2] - In China's Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in December supports the market bottom, but high prices limit buyers' enthusiasm, and the release of grain sources due to rumors leads to a price decline In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers' selling enthusiasm increases slightly, and prices fluctuate slightly [2] - Corn futures prices have fallen from high levels recently after an unexpected increase, with high short - term volatility, so it's recommended to wait and see [2] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure As of December 17, the national corn starch inventory has increased However, the upcoming festivals may boost demand, and the price increase of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3] - Affected by the decline in corn prices, corn starch prices have also fallen, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2206 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2512 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 16 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 988,605 lots, up 543,683 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 132,098 lots, down 5,695 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 96,862 lots, up 6,528 lots; for corn starch: - 33,511 lots, down 193 lots [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 54,440 lots, down 1,790 lots; for corn starch: 2,500 lots, unchanged [2] - CS - C price difference of the main contract: 333 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 436 cents/bu, down 3.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,616,139 contracts, up 13,001 contracts [2] - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 120,900 contracts, up 77,887 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,350.78 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,120.47 yuan/ton, down 2.11 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - International freight of imported corn: 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; basis of the main corn starch contract: 88 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 144.78 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 466 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,517.78 yuan/ton, down 0.89 yuan; price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 725 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - Price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the U.S. (monthly): 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in China (monthly): 295 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 31.5 tons, down 20.2 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 294 tons, up 18.6 tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 152 tons, down 11 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 107.4 tons, up 2.5 tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 tons, up 30 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19.17 tons, up 6.39 tons [2] - Monthly feed production: 2,957 tons, down 171.7 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong (daily): - 8 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei (daily): 74 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 141.67 tons, down 0.09 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin (daily): - 53 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 68.22%, down 2.06%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 62.31%, down 0.53% [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 11.72%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.45%, down 0.03% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 1.48%, down 7.11%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 5.17%, down 3.41% [2] Industry News - On December 16, CGSGB invited bids for the sale of imported corn, with 103,129 tons of 2021 U.S. corn planned for auction, all of which were sold The auction reserve price was 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,070 - 2,085 yuan/ton, and the premium was 70 - 85 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.68%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index rebounded 1.46 points from last week, up 0.1% month - on - month. The improvement in the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices. The geopolitical situation has reached a stalemate, and its impact on freight rates has weakened in the short term. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1699.800, down 11.7; EC second - main contract closing price: 1124.1, down 6.3. EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 416.10, up 19.3; EC2602 - EC2604 spread: not provided; EC contract basis: - 189.34, down 13.00. EC main contract open interest: 31971, down 512 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 924.34, down 36.15; SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1510.56, up 1.46. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1506.46, up 108.83; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1118.07, up 3.18; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1470.55, up 22.99. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2204.00, down 11.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1577.00, up 67.00. Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 30050.00, down 1393.00; average charter price (Panama - type ship): not provided. Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.07 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central economic work conference in 2025 aims to expand domestic demand as the top priority next year, and boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. It also plans to stabilize the real estate market from both ends. The Trump administration threatens to take retaliatory measures against the EU for taxing US technology companies. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.2, a new low in 8 months; Germany's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 47.7, the worst in 10 months; France's manufacturing PMI rises to 50.6, a 40 - month high [1] 3.4 Spot Freight Quotes - Maersk's 52 - week 40 - foot container quote is 2300 US dollars, PA Alliance maintains 2800 - 3000 US dollars, MSC's spot quote is 2640 US dollars, and OA's quote is 2400 - 2700 US dollars. All shipping companies' quotes have increased compared with early December. Maersk plans to raise the 40 - foot container price to 3500 US dollars in January, and MSC plans to raise it to 3700 US dollars [1] 3.5 Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has entered its 4th year, with battlefield confrontations and negotiation games proceeding simultaneously. Western aid to Ukraine has decreased, and the counter - offensive has not made breakthrough progress. The geopolitical conflict remains in a stalemate [1] 3.6 Economic Situation in the Eurozone - The economic climate in the eurozone continues to recover. With the boost of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, Germany's service industry continues to recover strongly, the composite PMI runs stably above 50, and the inflation sub - item continues the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" stance [1] 3.7 Key Data to Be Released - UK central bank interest rate decision as of December 18; Eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of December 18; US November unadjusted CPI annual rate; US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending December 13 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10. The supply pressure increases as the production profit of stainless steel plants improves and the decline in production is limited. The downstream demand turns to the off - season, the export volume decreases, and the market trading is average. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the whole country shows a seasonal slight decline, and there is support at the previous low of 13,000 level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,103 lots, a decrease of 387 lots. The main contract position is 136,601 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 58,647 tons, a decrease of 1,156 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 115,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool, the 12 - month Markit composite PMI hits a six - month low, and the eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerates contraction. The Philippines enters the rainy season, the nickel ore grade declines, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tight, but the Indonesian nickel - iron output remains high. Central Financial Office says investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year [2]

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 328600 | 7980 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -740 | -100 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 40955 | -140 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 32130 | -155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -498 | -234 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3815 | 20 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7391 | 526 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 155 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7497 | 34 | | | | | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 325800 | 5300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 325580 | 7040 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22970 | -60 01-02月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -5 | 10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3035 | -60 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 194756 | -12790 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 2722 | -4540 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 80577 | -11339 LME库存(日,吨) | 95550 | 31075 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23020 | -160 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22750 | -60 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 50 | -100 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -16.47 | 15.14 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 20 ...