| 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 14040 -845 | 270 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 12145 -60 | 335 -15 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1895 | -65 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 165921 | 9883 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51687 | -2789 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -10486 | 6525 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -4983 | 3723 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 192050 | -190 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 28525 | -505 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | | | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 13850 1685 | 5 马标 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - On Thursday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased again, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%. Factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, and the total inventory increased by 0.99 million tons. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, terminal demand is resilient, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke in furnace materials supports steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are consolidating at a low level with the green bar shrinking. Operationally, conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,103 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,510,669 lots, up 263 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net position: 106,068 lots, down 352 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 70,514 tons, down 1,779 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 700 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 138.9416 million tons, down 0.3898 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 811,200 tons, down 60,400 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3401 million tons, down 87,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.84%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.81%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2724 million tons, up 0.0179 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.59%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 782,200 tons, up 17,000 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6294 million tons, down 7,100 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 86.55 million tons, up 0.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 10.1 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; factory inventory was 782,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons; social inventory was 2.6294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons; total inventory was 3.4116 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0099 million tons; apparent demand was 3.2625 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0444 million tons [2] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. At the same time, relevant parties will be coordinated to formulate monthly and weekly plans for using national subsidy funds in different fields to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the high uncertainty in the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Thailand's ban on the transit of Burmese tin ore, the supply of tin ore imports is restricted. Although the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, the processing fees for tin ore remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, smelting enterprises in Yunnan face raw material shortages and cost pressures, while those in Jiangxi have a stressed scrap recycling system and a high risk of capacity exit. On the demand side, the consumer electronics industry is in a seasonal off - season with weakening orders. Technically, the long - position strength has increased, breaking through the MA60 resistance and testing the previous high. It is recommended to either wait and see or go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, up 4,270 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,140 US dollars/ton, up 680 US dollars - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 10,817 lots, down 2,260 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures traders for Shanghai tin is 1,727 lots, down 564 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 700 tons, up 40 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warehouse receipts are 6,591 tons, up 119 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 3,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,960 yuan/ton, up 4,850 yuan - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 1,470 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan; the LME tin (0 - 3) spread is 15 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars [3] 3.3上游情况 - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,790 yuan/ton, up 2,080 yuan - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base its decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts. The US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said that the development of stablecoins presents both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus is needed on effective regulation - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, build a new real - estate development model, and develop new - quality productive forces [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach. The current situation shows a weak supply - demand balance in the short term. The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight situation. The smelting end faces profit losses, leading some non - integrated smelters to cut production. On the demand side, stainless steel mills' profits are compressed, and the 300 - series is being converted to other products. Although the demand for new energy vehicles is rising, its impact is limited. Domestic inventory is decreasing while overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, the short - selling pressure has weakened with a reduction in positions, and the price has broken through the MA10 resistance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,230 yuan/ton. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,075 US dollars/ton, up 170 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Nickel is 80,909 lots, an increase of 44,607 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 9,125 lots, an increase of 4,288 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 204,216 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,304 tons, a decrease of 389 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 12,264 tons, a decrease of 1,410 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,263 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,650 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 123,100 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 197.69 US dollars/ton, up 0.7 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, an increase of 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 739.24 million tons, an increase of 17.37 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, an increase of 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is - 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, and the inventory is 62.53 million tons, an increase of 0.61 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts. The US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point. - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said that the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and effective global regulation is needed. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and develop new - quality productivity according to local conditions [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term enterprise malfunctions are expected to have little impact on production. Agricultural demand is currently lukewarm, with agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation to continue next week. Domestic industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises continues to decline. Enterprises are promoting autumn pre - sales, and raw material prices are stabilizing. It is expected that some enterprises with planned maintenance will resume production, but overall, there are still more maintenance activities, and the capacity utilization rate will remain low. Recently, urea has continued to be shipped to ports, which has accelerated the sales of some urea enterprises. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline, but overall inventory reduction is limited. The UR2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1724 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 233,314 lots, down 21,922 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5183, down 9688. The exchange warehouse receipts are 500 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei are 1790 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Jiangsu 1780 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Shandong 1800 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and in Anhui 1800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic are 375 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port are 372.5 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 29.5 million tons (up 5 million tons), and enterprise inventory is 109.59 million tons (down 4.01 million tons). The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.28% (up 0.48%), and the daily output is 204,400 tons (up 2500 tons). Urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 6,293,230 tons (up 448,150 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.82% (down 1.99%), and the melamine operating rate is 64.32% (up 0.55%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 186 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 484 yuan/ton (down 194 yuan). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 480.9 million tons (down 104.17 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons (up 300 tons) [2] Industry News - As of June 25, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 109.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.01 million tons or 3.53%. As of June 26, China's urea port sample inventory was 38.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 million tons or 29.15%. As of June 26, China's urea production enterprise output was 1.3902 billion tons, a decrease of 40.5 million tons or 2.83% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 85.78%, a decrease of 2.50% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2] Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions as the futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover after reaching the low - valuation area [2] 2) Core View of the Report - After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - season. With a high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, egg supply is sufficient. The storage cost increases due to the rainy season, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. However, the process of culling old hens has accelerated after the price reached a relatively low level, reducing the inventory expectation [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3,550 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 11 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,481 lots, down 88 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 19 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 11 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 234,921 lots, down 2,313 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The egg spot price is 2.84 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 709 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national egg - laying hen inventory index is 110.89 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.46; the national culled egg - laying hen index is 108.68 (with 2015 = 100), up 11.92; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 4 yuan per chick, down 0.1 yuan; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (with 2015 = 100), down 31.9; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.74 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, up 0.08 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.88 yuan per kilogram, down 0.24 yuan; the national average age of culled chickens is 506 days, down 4 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.31 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.38 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.42 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, down 0.01 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, down 0.11 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales area is 7,527 tons, down 667 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from the previous day. After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - season, with sufficient supply, increased storage costs, and cautious purchasing by downstream dealers [2] Viewpoint Summary - Egg supply is sufficient, prices are at a relatively low level, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, the culling of old hens has accelerated, and the futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover, suggesting a light - position trial for long positions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Corn**: US corn has a good excellent rate, and the trade relationship between China and the US has eased, leading to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the supply in the Northeast is tightening, and traders are bullish on the future. However, the expected impact of wheat substitution has slowed the rise of corn prices. The corn futures price has recently fallen from its high and is in a high - level oscillation, suggesting short - term trading [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively good, and the industry inventory has been declining. Recently, it has weakened along with the fall of corn prices, also suggesting short - term trading [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is 107 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is 7895 hands, and the net long position of corn is - 39278 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 217440 hands, and that of corn starch is 23174 hands [2] - The main contract CS - C spread is 350 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of CBOT corn is 405.25 cents/bushel [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn total position is 1592477 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 107244 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2430 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1899.63 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 0 US dollars/ton [2] Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2446.11 yuan/ton, and the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and the predicted output is 44.3 million tons [2] - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 113.5 million tons, and the deep - processed corn inventory is 459.2 million tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports is 382 million tons, and the starch enterprise inventory is 130.9 million tons [2] - The import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the export volume of corn starch is 2664 tons [2] - The output of feed is 27.78 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 81 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The deep - processed corn consumption is 117.62 million tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.8% [2] - The starch enterprise operating rate is 51.15%, and the sample feed corn inventory days is 33.07 days [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.54%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.7% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.07% [2] Industry News - Analysts expect the US corn sown area in 2025 to be 95.35 million acres, and the soybean sown area to be 83.65 million acres [2] - Analysts expect the US corn inventory on June 1 to be 4.641 billion bushels, a 7.1% decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of June 22, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material side is affected by policies, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply and intensifying raw material disturbances; the decline in ferronickel prices weakens cost support [2] - On the supply side, steel mills maintain normal production, cut 300 - series stainless steel production, but the supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and poor domestic inventory reduction [2] - Technically, the short - selling force weakens with reduced positions, and it breaks through the MA10 pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,635 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 95 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is - 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,172 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,738 lots; the main contract position is 117,031 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 42,963 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 112,446 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 421 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,375 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 235 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 23,900 metal tons, with an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, with a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, with an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,650 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel output is 1.7847 million tons, with a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 625,300 tons, with an increase of 6,100 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, with an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, with a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed hopes to base decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts; the US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [2] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and there is a need for more global consensus on effective regulation [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand, boost consumption, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and effectively respond to external shocks [2]