苹果产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -138 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9380 | | 109486 | 3227 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | -513 | -1242 | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.2 | 元/斤) 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 | | | | | | -0.05 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) 全国苹果冷库总库存(周,万吨) -2 ...

免责声明 铝类产业日报 2026/2/2 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,035.00 | -1525.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,772.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -1,335.00 | -1395.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -162.00 | -4.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 238,005.00 | -46894.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,783.00 | -67133.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 菜籽类市场周报 政策层面仍然存忧 推动菜油价格补涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收涨，05合约收盘价9380元/吨，较前一周+389元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。且美国总统特朗普表示， 如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议并予以推进，他将对加拿大征收100%的关税。对加拿大菜油出口 较为不利。不过，中加贸易关系缓和，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面， 美国生柴政策可能利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十五日出 口明显增加。另外，印度取消豆油买船，或转向性价比更高的棕榈油，给市场提供额外支撑。国 内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑，菜油基差维 持高位。同时，美国对加拿大施压，对此引发市场对中加贸易协定最终能否完全落地存在疑虑。 不过，路透社消息称，中国进口商获得了多达10船加拿大油菜籽船货，预 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 30」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 「 期现市场」 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 市场回顾：本周，伴随贵金属市场波动继续放大，黄金白银均创下历史新高，但多头高位获利了结叠加避险对 冲需求同时抬升，导致多空博弈显著加剧，周五盘中海内外贵金属市场大幅回调，短线市场情绪趋于谨慎。美 联储方面，FOMC议息会议如期维持利率按兵不动，符合市场预期。会议声明指出，经济活动保持稳健扩张，就 业增长温和，失业率初现企稳，通胀仍略高于目标。从议后市场反应来看，利率期货显示今年3月FOMC降息预 期减弱，但仍维持下半年逐步重启50-75基点降息的预期。继美国向欧洲八国进行关税威胁后，美方上调针对 韩国的关税税率，叠加美联储新一任主席政策立场的不确定性，以及市场对于美国债务问题持久化的担忧情绪， 推动贵金属市场大幅走高。美伊局势持续升温，美国总统特朗普表示正考虑对伊朗发动新的重大打击，伊方领 导人给予强硬回应，市场避险情 ...

瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「2026.01.30」 玉米类市场周报 续涨动能略显不足 玉米期价高位回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收跌。主力2603合约收盘价为2271元/吨，较上周-29元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米供需格局较为宽松，继续牵制国际玉米市场价格，国际市场潜在的进口压力仍 存。国内方面，东北产区基层余粮持续消耗，干粮价格高企导致发货情况不理想，剩余粮源相对 集中于种植户及贸易环节，随着春节前下游备货的启动，种植户售粮心态有所松动，出粮速度较 前期偏快，贸易商对优质粮源存囤积意愿偏强，下游产品进入消费旺季，深加工企业为保障生产 连续性，加大玉米收购力度，玉米现货价格总体受到支撑。盘面来看，受现货偏强支撑，近期盘 面维持偏强震荡。不过，上方压力仍然较大，短期有望高位震荡。 「 周度要点小结 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market this week saw the futures price of the 2603 contract close lower at 3002 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market sentiment has slightly improved as the continuous losses of farmers have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and an increase in the number of old hens being culled, resulting in a continued decline in the inventory of laying hens. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, leading to a decrease in inventory at all levels, with some inventories being cleared. Traders are more actively purchasing, and the turnover speed has accelerated, causing a significant increase in egg prices and an improvement in farmers' profits. This has led to an increase in the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and a slight slowdown in the enthusiasm for culling old hens, weakening the expectation of a decline in inventory. From the perspective of the futures market, the market is caught between the boost from the continuous increase in spot prices and the pressure of high inventory, adding to market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The egg futures price of the 2603 contract closed lower at 3002 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The inventory of laying hens has declined, but the current high inventory, combined with the Spring Festival stocking peak, has led to increased egg prices and improved farmers' profits. This has affected the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and culling old hens, weakening the expectation of a decline in inventory. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract closed lower with a trading volume of 200,487 lots, a decrease of 70,495 lots from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 decreased from +10,286 to +2,490 [13]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of eggs was reported at 4,111 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 204 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at +1,109 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The spread between the March and May contracts of eggs was reported at - 416 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of January 29, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.6 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.58 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Laying Hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen culling index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national average culling age of hens was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of January 29, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,376.67 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,140 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of January 23, 2026, the breeding profit per laying hen was reported at 0.11 yuan, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.1 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.06 yuan per kilogram [59]. - **Monthly Egg Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and an increase of 1,853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information on Xiaoming Co., Ltd. includes a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - The domestic methanol market shows a split between the port and the inland. The port market oscillates, while the inland price continues to decline. The overall domestic methanol production is increasing, and the inventory shows different trends in different regions. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - Market performance: The port methanol market oscillates, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. The inland price continues to decline, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The domestic methanol production increases. The inland enterprise inventory decreases slightly, the port inventory accumulates, but the port inventory is expected to decline next week. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillates and closes up, with a weekly increase of 0.96% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30th, the MA 5 - 9 spread is - 24 [16] - Position analysis: As of January 29th, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 7410, a decrease of 335 compared to last week [25] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of January 29th, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The spread between East China and Northwest is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of January 29th, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The spread between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of January 29th, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of January 28th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of January 29th, China's methanol production is 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [45] - Inventory: As of January 28th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, while that in South China decreases [52] - Import volume and profit: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume is 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume is 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of January 29th, the methanol import profit is - 12.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94 yuan/ton compared to last week [57] Downstream - Operating rate: As of January 29th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices is 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO devices of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continue to be shut down, while the Ningbo Fude device restarts, but the weekly average operating rate still decreases [60] - Profit: As of January 30th, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 936 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1830区间波动。 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.30」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 4 「 期货市场情况」 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场呈现冲高回落，截止周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1740-1780元/ 吨，均价环比上涨45元/吨。本周期国内尿素企业陆续进入春节收单阶段，农业需求的跟进以及市 场情绪的带动，尿素工厂收单较为顺利，并未出现明显降价吸单现象，下游跟单积极性尚可。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，1-3家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比下滑，部分地区受到环保预警等影响，装置出现降负荷情况，工业需求对尿素支持减弱。 本周国内尿素企业库存波动较小， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 策略建议： br2604合约短线预计在12800-14000区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周顺丁橡胶主流供价及市场价格均大幅上涨，主要受到海外丁二烯资源供应偏紧价 格上行后，国内丁二烯出口、转口成交消息持续带动影响，以及商品氛围偏强带动作用影响。山 东市场顺丁橡胶价格大幅上行后高位震荡，现货价格区间在12300-13100元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，原料丁二烯价格超预期上涨带动顺丁橡 胶行情走高，但高价使得买盘跟进偏慢，同时顺丁橡胶生产仍明显亏损，部分华北地区民营企业 存在不同程度降负，本周生产企业库存下降，贸易企业库存总体略有增加，短期预计变动有限。 需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置 排产稍有提升，对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分 ...