瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 铝类市场周报 情绪释放消费淡季，铝类震荡波动剧烈 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较高，生产开工情况仍 保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。需求端，铝价受宏 观情绪以及消费淡季影响大幅波动，下游采买情绪逐渐谨慎，现货市场成交逐渐清淡，下游消费受长假以及淡季影响偏弱运 行，社会库存持续累库。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求尚弱阶段。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线冲高回落，周涨跌幅+1.11%，报24560元/吨。氧化铝先涨后跌，周涨跌+1.62%，报2768元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐降低发运回升，土矿价格因为供给回升而有 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 铁矿石市场周报 港口库存再创新高 铁矿期价震荡偏弱 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2394.3万吨，环比增加147.6万吨。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至1月30日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为791.5（-3.5）元/吨，青岛港60.8%PB粉矿841（-7）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+48.5万吨。2026年1月19日-1月25日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量2978.3万吨，环比增加48.5 3. 到港：本期47港到港量-272.2万吨。2026年01月19日-01月25日中国47港到港总量2625.5万吨，环比减少272.2万吨；中国45港 到港总量2530.0万吨，环比减少129.7万吨；北方六港到港总量1238.1万吨，环比减少204.8万吨 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 生猪市场周报 节前供应施压，关注需求表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 行情展望：2月份出栏时间较少，虽然部分企业惜售挺价，但是市场整体在节前预计保持出栏节奏， 节前供应压力增加，关注养殖端出栏情况。需求端，南方交通恢复，屠宰开工率回升，节前备货预期， 但学生放假，短期需求增幅有限。总体来说，需求虽然有回升，但增幅受限，节前市场供应压力较大， 施压生猪价格偏弱调整。 本周期货下行 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单0张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.0 ...

瑞达期货研究院 终端需求韧性较强 热卷期价区间整理 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 「2026.1.30」 热轧卷板市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至1月30日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3288（-17），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3310（-10）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量上调。309.21（+3.8），（同比-14.22）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求提升。本期表需314.16（+5.82），（同比+11.6）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库降。总库存355.58（-2.81），（同比-33.03）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少9.53个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | 0.04 | -1.32 | 4711.0 | | | IH2603 | 1.19 | -1.64 | 3074.0 | | | IC2603 | -3.42 | -2.07 | 8362.4 | | | IM2603 | -3.01 | -0.84 | 8260.6 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 0.08 | -1.00 | 4706.34 | | | 上证50 | 1.13 | -1.43 | 3066.50 | | | 中证500 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 螺纹钢市场周报 需求下滑&炉料反弹 螺纹期价区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 价格及价差：截至1月30日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3128（-14），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（-30）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量增加。199.83（+0.28），同比（+22.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需176.4（-9.12），（同比+168.65）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库双增。螺纹钢总库存475.53（+23.43），（同比-177.6）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少9.53个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75% ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,157.00 | +34↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1785380 | +40974↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25175 | +56921↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 38283 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 151 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,300.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,385 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,170.00 | +10↑ | | | RB 主力合约基差 ( ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium and long term. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2800 per ounce and the lower support level of $2600 per ounce; the London palladium should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2100 per ounce and the lower support level of $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 714.10 yuan/gram (up 13.60), and the closing price of the palladium main contract is 526.60 yuan/gram (up 15.10). The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00), and the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 703.90 yuan/gram (up 33.45), and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 502.00 yuan/gram (up 42.00). The basis of the platinum main contract is - 10.20 yuan/gram (up 19.85), and the basis of the palladium main contract is - 24.60 yuan/gram (up 26.90) [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00 (down 243.00), and those of palladium are 3003.00 (down 342.00). The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80), and the total supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00). The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60), and the total demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00) [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.35 (up 0.59), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.90% (unchanged), and the VIX volatility index is 16.35 (up 0.20) [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he doesn't believe the Fed will lose its independence and will advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics. - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next attack on Iran will be more severe and a large fleet is heading to Iran. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook meets expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates. Members agreed that even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates at this meeting, the monetary policy environment will remain loose. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in total by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in total is 2.0% [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Boosted by the overall optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market, the London platinum and palladium markets strengthened with fluctuations. At the macro level, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, and there is still an expectation of gradually restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in the recent overall increase of domestic platinum and palladium prices being weaker than that of the external market. The EU officially postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and simultaneously strengthened automobile exhaust emission standards, bringing higher platinum loading intensity. The substitution demand for platinum in automobile catalysts is expected to increase by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales volume is moderately adjusted downward due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - and long - term demand curve for platinum. The latest hydrogen energy outlook from the IEA also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential elasticity for the platinum price [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On January 29th, 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30th, 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 1.59%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 6%. The far - month contracts had larger increases due to geopolitical factors. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1,859.31, down 94.88 points from the previous week, a 4.9% week - on - week decline. The cancellation of full - refund VAT for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but the price increase may be reversed later, and the spot - end support has weakened, causing the futures price to decline. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December 2026, which may be related to the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. It is expected that China's exports will maintain a high growth rate in 2026. The spot freight rates of some shipping companies have different trends, with Maersk's price reduction pressure slightly improving, while others continue to lower prices. The expectation of resuming shipping in the Red Sea has improved, and the market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in time [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1,249.700, up 19.5; EC second - main contract closing price: 1,576, up 86.90. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 326.30, down 62.10; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 395.70, down 63.90. - EC contract basis: 609.61, down 20.70. - EC main contract open interest: 39,669, down 477. [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1,859.31, down 94.88; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1,294.32, down 10.95. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1,457.86, down 116.26; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1,227.97, up 0.17. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1,208.75, down 1.10; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1,588.19, up 5.59. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2,016.00, down 17.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1,681.00, down 56.00. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, up 0.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 24,823.00, up 5,025.00. [1] 3.3 Industry News - US President Trump threatened Iran again, and Iran's foreign minister said the armed forces were on high alert. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut, in line with Trump's nominee Milan. The unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic uncertainty is still high. - The German government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% from 1.3% due to under - performing infrastructure investment and weak exports caused by high tariffs. [1] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - January 30, 07:30: Japan's December unemployment rate. - January 30, 14:30: France's preliminary Q4 GDP annual growth rate. - January 30, 16:55: Germany's seasonally - adjusted January unemployment rate. - January 30, 17:00: Germany's preliminary Q4 un - seasonally - adjusted GDP annual growth rate. - January 30, 18:00: Eurozone's December unemployment rate. - January 30, 21:00: Germany's preliminary January CPI monthly rate. - January 30, 21:30: US December PPI annual growth rate. [1]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-01-29 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 郑棉价格或震荡偏上运行。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14910 | -30 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20700 | -25 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -142853 | 25 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -1958 | -101 | | | 主 ...