本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水下调，国内库存 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 增加；LME锌库存持稳，现货升水维持低位。技术面，持仓减量价格下跌，多头氛围下降。观点参考：预 计沪锌震荡调整，关注MA10支撑。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24450 | -300 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -40 | 35 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3209 | -105.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 232277 | -20708 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to be adjusted strongly, with attention paid to the MA5 support, in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants, and the planned reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia next year will bring production cut pressure to ferronickel production. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, with supply pressure still existing. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing. The market procurement willingness is not high, but the social inventory of stainless steel in the country maintains a seasonal slight decline due to limited arrivals. Technically, the position increases and the price is strong, with a strong long - position atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,631 lots, an increase of 170 lots; the position of the main contract is 141,891 lots, an increase of 2,178 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 295 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 145,900 yuan/ton, down 3,450 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and Canada issued a joint statement. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, with the tax rate reduced from 100% to 6.1%. - Trump said that from February 1st, tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries until "completely acquiring Greenland"; many EU countries are considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to Europe; Canada is considering sending troops to Greenland. - The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairman has changed. Trump hopes that Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor; reports say that Riddell of BlackRock has a rising voice in the campaign for the Fed Chairman, and he had a smooth meeting with Trump on Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for iron ore prices, advising attention to risk control. The port inventory continues to accumulate, with relatively sufficient spot resources but uneven variety distribution. The arrival of the first 200,000 - ton shipment of Simandou iron ore in China may put short - term pressure on ore prices. The I2605 contract's 1 - hour MACD indicator shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 794.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the position is 616,341 lots, down 32,521 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 11,895 lots, up 6,714 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 800.00 lots, down 700.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 104.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.69 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 857 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines is 853 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 59 yuan, up 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.55 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fines is 3.04, up 0.03. The estimated import cost is 855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 million tons, down 251.10 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) is 2,897.70 million tons, down 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 million tons, up 244.26 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 million tons, up 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) is 22.00 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 million tons, up 0.81 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 million tons, down 0.49 million tons. The BDI index is 1,567.00, up 35.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 19.56 US dollars/ton, up 0.30 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.45 US dollars/ton, up 0.23 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.51%, up 1.75 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.99%, up 1.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.01%, up 3.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 24.41%, up 7.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. Also, on January 17th, local time, US President Trump announced that starting from February 1st, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the US from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, and the tariff will be increased to 25% by June 1st [2].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,299 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1502009 | -12645↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -19,032 | -5898↓ HC5-1 ...

白糖产业日报 2026-01-19 糖进度较快，销量稍好于去年同期，整体数据中性偏空。不过下游备货陆续启动，食品加工企业采购有所 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 增加，但整体增幅有限。基于增产预期背景下，短期糖价仍缺乏反弹动机，短期维持震荡偏弱可能。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5244 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support from tight ore supply for copper prices remains. Supply is relatively sufficient, but affected by the off - season and high previous copper prices, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to continuous accumulation of refined copper social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades when the price is low, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,180 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,841 dollars/ton, up 38 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 180 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 217,432 lots, down 8,501 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 51,946 lots, up 8,753 lots. The LME copper inventory is 143,575 tons, up 2,450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 49,575 tons, down 525 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 152,655 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,940 yuan/ton, down 915 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,805 yuan/ton, down 1,005 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 28 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 1,325 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 61.52 dollars/ton, up 23.92 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons; the weekly rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,540 yuan/metal ton, down 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,240 yuan/metal ton, down 540 yuan. The weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - The weekly social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,690 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,300 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative monthly completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.90 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly completed investment in real estate development is 82,788 billion yuan, up 4,197.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810,000,000 pieces, up 418,000,000 pieces [2] 期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.11%, down 0.10%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.35%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.54%, down 0.0098%; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, up 0.1004 [2] 行业消息 - In 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.2%, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.4%. The output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively. In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 451.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 5,012.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The GDP in 2025 was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% at constant prices. The Fed's Vice - Chair Jefferson said the interest rate is in a range consistent with the neutral level; Fed Governor Bowman said that if the employment situation does not improve, officials should be prepared to further cut interest rates [2]

35%，样本点库存环比下降。当前红枣进入备货高峰期，下游客户拿货积极性提升，关注年前备货情况。 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 红枣产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8815 | -60 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 128541 | 4240 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -19547 | -64 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 3298 | 27 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 324 | -27 | | | | 现货市场 | | 6.5 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.1 | 0 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.040 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 52248 | -16762↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | 43774 | -19513↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.400 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 23651 | -10268↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 110.920 | -0.22% TL主力成交量 | 78148 | -15821↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -2.88 | 0.22↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.06 | +0.01↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.26 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.03 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton commercial inventory is continuously rising, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The arrival of Brazilian cotton at ports increases the inventory. The downstream demand is generally weak, but the yarn price remains stable due to cost - driven factors. The growth in textile and clothing export in December supports the market. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and the market is expected to be in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 14,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 161,092 hands, an increase of 7,703 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 1,365 hands, an increase of 102 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 801,019 hands, down 21,592 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 14,778 hands, down 437 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,658 sheets, down 8 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 70 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,582 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,722 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,556 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,209 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.039 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,731,408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 13.35%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 13.35%, down 0.19%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.02%, an increase of 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.12%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 8, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 339,700 bales, reaching the annual high, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 156,100 bales, a 1% increase from the previous week and an 8% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11705 | -275 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 154389 | -7106 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 433 | -382 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49295 | 2242 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13300 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13100 | 500 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 1000 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 1595 | 375 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42967 | -713 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 3961 | -29 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) ...