Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term considering potential enterprise malfunctions. Although it's the off - season for agricultural demand, there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection situations. Affected by market sentiment, urea factory orders are progressing, and factory shipments are improving. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to decline. After the end of the environmental protection warning, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may rise. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1735 yuan/ton, with no change; the 5 - 9 spread is 34 yuan/ton, with no change. The main contract's open interest is 194,803 lots, an increase of 1,149 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 25,071 lots, a decrease of 1,392 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 10,750 lots, with no change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton, in Henan is 1710 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton, all with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, and FOB China Main Port is 390 US dollars/ton, both with no change [3]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons (28.26%); enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons (9.39%). The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Urea export volume is 60 million tons, a decrease of 60 million tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [3]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, an increase of 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [3]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons (9.39%). As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons (28.26%), and exports were being shipped to ports steadily. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a decrease of 325 million tons (2.38%) from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period. There were new device overhauls, and the output continued to decline. There were no planned device shutdowns this week, and 3 - 5 shutdown devices were expected to resume production [3]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 118,820.00 | -11700.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -128,305.00 | +897.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 512,345.00 | -64690.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -700.00 | +380.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 18,191.00 | +330.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 118,000.00 | +6100.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 115,000.00 | +5750.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -820.00 | +17800.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,430.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market price increased. Imported rubber market offers rose, with traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse exchanges. The restocking sentiment in January was strong, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Domestic natural rubber spot offers also increased following the market, but downstream demand did not improve significantly, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see approach and maintaining rigid demand procurement, resulting in weak actual order transactions [9]. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan producing area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still tapping, but due to rainfall, the raw material output on the island has further decreased, and local private processing plants have gradually shut down. It is expected that the producing area will basically stop tapping in early January and completely stop in mid - January. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand month - on - month. The arrival and warehousing of overseas mixed rubber have increased, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and the overall outbound volume is lower than expected. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises has decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market price increased this week. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers also increased. Downstream demand remained weak [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan's output is decreasing. Qingdao Port's inventory is accumulating, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and they are in the seasonal off - season [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,400 - 16,000, and the nr2602 contract between 12,400 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.88% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 3.2% week - on - week. As of December 25, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt was 93,230 tons, an increase of 6,070 tons from last week; the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 57,960 tons, a decrease of 1,008 tons from last week. As of December 26, the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 30, and the 20 - rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 [12][22][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 25, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The 20 - rubber basis was 433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week [29][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of December 26, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (- 1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 51 (+ 0.25) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton from last week. As of December 25, the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and Yunnan was in the non - tapping period [39][42]. - **Import Situation**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [45]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate [49]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [55]. - **Domestic Demand**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [58].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 26」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场继续强势运行，沪银主力合约录得上市后单周最大涨幅。在实物库存持续紧 张的支撑下，白银市场挤仓行情延续，多头情绪占据主导，大量空头受"挤压"离场进一步助推银价上 行动能，金银比持续回落。宏观数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得近两年以来最快增速， 其中消费支出为主要拉动项；同期核心PCE物价指数符合市场预期，显示通胀压力趋于缓和。特朗普近期 多次表示，期望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现稳健的背景下继续推行降息，这在一定程度上强化 了市场对未来流动性保持宽松的预期。综合来看，就业数据持续走软、通胀走势平缓，叠加市场对美联 储可能扩表并维持宽松流动性的预期，共同巩固了货币政策趋向宽松的宏观叙事。在此背景下，美元指 数短期预计延续弱势，贵金属的看涨逻辑尚未出现明显松动，但近期价格连续快速拉升，市场波动显著 放大，价格已一定程度偏离基本面支撑，需警惕技术性回调风险。此外，金银比价已回落 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting No. Z0021558 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a strong fluctuation. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. Although the actual export volume has not shown obvious abnormalities recently, market sentiment has been repeatedly affected by export expectations, which has stimulated downstream purchasing to some extent [6]. - Recently, some new device overhauls have led to a continued decline in domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of an increase in production is relatively high [6]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui may increase slightly, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased slightly this week due to local environmental protection warnings, and it may fluctuate slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [6]. - Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factories have continuously advanced orders and improved shipments. At the same time, affected by local environmental protection warnings, some urea devices have reduced production, leading to a continued decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories. In the short term, as environmental protection warnings end and urea production rebounds, inventories are expected to rise [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was strong this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Market sentiment was affected by export expectations, which stimulated downstream purchasing [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production may increase next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, with local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui possibly increasing slightly and commercial reserve demand slowing down. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants may fluctuate slightly. Urea enterprise inventories may rise as production rebounds after environmental protection warnings end [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of December 26, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, a decrease of 226 compared to last week [19]. Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [25]. - **External Price**: As of December 25, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the urea basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to last week [33]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [36]. Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of December 25, China's urea production was 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend [39]. - **Inventory**: As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.26%; as of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 9.39% [40]. - **Export**: According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [45]. Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Start - up Rates**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - The port methanol market continued to be strong this week, while the inland market remained weak. Inland enterprises had high inventories due to poor sales, and price cuts to reduce inventory were the mainstream operation [8]. - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. With increased market supply, port goods continued to flow into the inland, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level, reducing procurement enthusiasm. Inland projects continued to operate stably, and inland enterprise inventories increased this week. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, the weak winter demand expectation was unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventories were expected to increase overall. Port inventories increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will still be high, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [8]. - The operating loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. In the short term, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland market was weak, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland inventories increased, and port inventories were expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry was expected to decline slightly [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 26, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 14 [16]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, there were 6748 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 41 from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of December 24, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 252 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The NYMEX natural gas closed at 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of December 25, China's methanol production was 2072175 tons, an increase of 16200 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80%. As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 40.40 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 19.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.68 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.25 million tons, an increase of 19.37 tons from the previous data. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 141.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1269.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of December 25, the methanol import profit was - 6.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.1 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54]. - **Downstream**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 88.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of December 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 991 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market may oscillate. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply may increase slightly while demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile due to positive macro expectations. For alumina, it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [4][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material alumina price is low, and smelting profits are good. Supply increases slightly, demand weakens in the off - season, and inventory accumulates slightly. The price remains high and volatile [4]. - **Alumina**: The impact of seasonal factors on imported ores is weakening, and port inventory is rising slightly. Supply may decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High aluminum prices support the cost of cast aluminum. Production may decrease due to environmental policies and raw material supply issues. Demand weakens in the off - season, and it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum (SHFE) was 22,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from December 19; LME aluminum was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 1.76% from December 18. Alumina futures price rose 3.17%, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract rose 0.73%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 1.01%, and the spot price of alumina in some regions declined [10][14][32]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.53 on December 26, down 0.32 from December 19. The copper - aluminum futures spread increased by 5,320 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc futures spread decreased by 115 yuan/ton [11][23]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE aluminum position increased by 2.96%, and the net position of the top 20 increased [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of December 24, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.28%; as of December 19, SHFE inventory increased by 0.43%; as of December 25, domestic social inventory increased by 10.98% [35]. - **Raw Material Import**: In November 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 2,619 million tons, up 3 million tons month - on - month [39]. - **Waste Aluminum**: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong rose by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. In November 2025, the import of aluminum waste increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 1.7% [45]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, alumina production increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The import increased by 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year, and the export decreased [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.5% year - on - year. The import decreased by 2.79% year - on - year in November, and the global supply gap from January to October was - 108,700 tons [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, the production of aluminum products decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, the built - in capacity of cast aluminum alloy increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and production increased by 7.12% [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, aluminum alloy production increased by 17% year - on - year. Imports decreased, and exports increased [65]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from the previous month. The new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13%. In November 2025, automobile sales increased by 3.4% and production increased by 2.76% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai nickel, it is expected to have a wide - range adjustment in the short - term. Pay attention to the MA5 support and the 130,000 - yuan resistance level [7]. - For stainless steel, it is predicted that the futures price will adjust at a high level. Focus on the MA5 support and the 13,200 - yuan resistance level [7]. Summary of Each Section 1. Week - to - Week Summary Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 8.17% and an amplitude of 12.20%. The closing price was 126,750 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro aspect, the US ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. Fundamentally, the nickel ore imports are expected to decline as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, causing concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting sector, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase; multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the output is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. In terms of demand, the price of nickel - iron, the cost of stainless steel, has decreased, and the steel mills' profit has improved, with a high expected production schedule; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. Technically, trading volume has increased, and the position is at a high level, with greater differences between long and short positions [7]. Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 1.85% and an amplitude of 3.14%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,955 yuan/ton [7]. - In the raw material aspect, as the Philippines gradually enters the rainy season and the nickel ore grade declines, the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening; Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year will put pressure on nickel - iron production due to the shrinking raw material supply. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend, and the impact of the previous extrusion of exports is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also limited, so the national stainless - steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has adjusted, with a cautious long - position sentiment [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Price - As of December 26, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 905 yuan/nickel, up 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 126,750 yuan/ton, up 9,570 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,955 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from last week [13]. Basis - As of December 26, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 129,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,950 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 595 yuan/ton. This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel rose, and the basis of stainless steel fell [18]. Price Ratio - As of December 26, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.78, up 0.57 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67 yuan/ton, down 0.26 from last week [25]. Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of December 26, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 47,699 lots, a decrease of 18,647 lots compared to December 22, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 13,994 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots compared to December 22, 2025 [31]. 3. Industrial Chain Supply - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Electrowinning Nickel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the nickel ore inventory at major ports nationwide was 13.7647 million tons, a decrease of 626,700 tons from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,000 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Imports**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [43]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of December 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 44,454 tons, a decrease of 826 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,696 tons, an increase of 2,214 tons from last week [50][51]. Demand - **Stainless Steel Production and Exports**: In November 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4931 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 689,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.042 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. In November 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55]. - **300 - Series Stainless Steel Inventory in Foshan and Wuxi**: As of December 26, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless - steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the stainless - steel production profit was 98 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Real Estate and Home Appliance Industries**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68]. - **Automobile and Machinery Industries**: In November 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View - This week, the egg market showed an oscillating upward trend. The market is currently in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate widely, while the far - month contracts are expected to perform better under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed at 2988 yuan/500 kilograms, up 42 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens culled has increased, and the egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased. The current spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the culling of old hens has slightly slowed down, which restricts the performance of the near - month market price. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions**: The March contract of egg futures oscillated upward, with a position volume of 190,633 lots, an increase of 16,051 lots from last week. The net position of the top twenty was - 44,991, compared with - 52,210 last week, and the net short position decreased [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2972 yuan/500 kilograms, down 148 yuan/500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 16 yuan/ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 598 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of December 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.44 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.75 yuan/kg [32]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The national new - born chick index was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen culling index was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 500 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Price Trends**: As of December 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2338.04 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan/ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of December 19, 2025, the breeding profit per egg - laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan/kg [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices**: As of December 19, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.90 yuan/kg [57]. - **Monthly Egg Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Enterprise - No in - depth analysis of the representative enterprise (Xiaoming Co., Ltd.) is provided except for showing the change of its price - earnings ratio.