Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of the futures price, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous freight rate increases to be partially reversed. Although the overall market sentiment has improved, the boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined. The EC2602 contract had a weekly increase of 6.03%, while far - month contracts had increases of 1 - 2% [10][12][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the details of the 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with the key territorial issue remaining unresolved. The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months. The U.S. Q3 real GDP had a significant annualized quarterly - on - quarterly increase of 4.3%. The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested integrating incremental and existing policies, and the EU extended sanctions against Russia [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week. The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, with a slight recovery in European - line capacity. The BDI and BPI declined, and the charter price of Panamax ships dropped. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [23][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. The latest SCFIS European - line settlement freight rate index increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week. The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight improvement in November, and terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. Only MSC and MSK have announced feasible spot quotes for January. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation has improved, and the euro - zone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength. However, the boosting effect of the peak season may be weaker than expected, and investors should focus on shipping companies' price - increase announcements [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level this week. The price has slightly increased, but the terminal procurement is weak. The inventory of producers is expected to stay high, while that of traders is expected to decline slightly [8] - The tire enterprises in China have flexible production arrangements this week. The semi - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has increased slightly, and the all - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has decreased. The enterprises are in the seasonal off - season with slow sales and rising inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - Market situation: Domestic butadiene rubber supply is high. The price in Shandong market has risen, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina are between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: Supply will remain high. The price is supported by the increase in the mainstream supply price, but due to sufficient resources and year - end production and sales pressure, producer inventory will stay high and trader inventory will decline slightly. Tire enterprises' production is flexible, with semi - steel tire operating rate rising and all - steel tire operating rate falling. The overall sales are slow and inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has risen by 5.58% this week [12] - Position analysis: No detailed information provided - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 26, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 5 [18] - Warehouse receipts: As of December 25, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - Price: As of December 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week [24] - Basis: As of December 25, the basis of butadiene rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last week [24] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 540.25 US dollars/ton, up 6.33 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene is 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week; the port inventory is 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons from last week [30] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In November 2025, domestic butadiene rubber production is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization is 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week [33] - Production profit: As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from last week [36] - Inventory: As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, up 530 tons from last week; the producer inventory is 28,850 tons, up 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, down 720 tons from last week [40] 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of December 25, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month - on - month and down 8.37 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [43] - Tire export volume: In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, up 5.40% month - on - month and up 1.82% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export volume is 7.7321 million tons, up 3.51% year - on - year [47]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed a generally strong trend, with their prices gradually diverging. Platinum demonstrated greater resilience, while palladium repeatedly rose and then fell during the session, confirming the market's expectation of "strong platinum and weak palladium." - In the future, platinum may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support [7]. - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Platinum's price elasticity has significantly increased due to the shortage of physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading. The London platinum lease rate has continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings have increased, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. - The high domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity. - Next week, the upper resistance level for London platinum spot is $2500 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2000 per ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is $1800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the platinum and palladium markets on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued their strong upward trend, with their prices continuing to diverge. - As of December 26, 2025, the main 2606 contract of palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 515.65 yuan per gram, up 7.38% for the week, and the main 2606 contract of platinum was at 705.30 yuan per gram, up 32.19% for the week [8][10]. - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, a 12.82% increase from the previous period, while the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, a 36.05% decrease from the previous period [16]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened, and their inventories increased. As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, a 3.32% increase from the previous period, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, a 4.81% increase from the previous period [17][25]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, and the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices also increased. Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [26][30][34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts has marginally weakened. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium has declined [38][43][53]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased slightly [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][10]. - The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved significantly, and the end - of - season inventory in the 2025/26 period has increased, which continues to restrain its market price. The high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has declined in the first 25 days, and the export data has improved, but there are doubts about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, which supports its price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased [8]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China is moving forward steadily towards its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is still restricted. The supply is tight due to the shutdown of oil mills, and there are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased. At the same time, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, which weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed oil - **Market review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market outlook**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and the end - of - season inventory has increased. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production and an improvement in exports, but there are doubts about Indonesia's B50 plan. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is destocking, which supports the price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure [8]. Rapeseed meal - **Market review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market outlook**: During the US soybean export season, there is abundant supply, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans. China is approaching its goal of purchasing US soybeans. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, resulting in tight supply. There are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures price trends - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 192,235 lots, down 15,944 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 650,686 lots, up 52,198 lots from last week [15]. Top - 20 net open interest changes - This week, the top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed oil futures was - 27,854, and last week it was - 27,499, with little change in net short positions. The top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed meal futures was - 32,331, and last week it was - 74,459, with a significant reduction in net short positions [21]. Futures warehouse receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,456 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [25]. Spot prices and basis trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,690 yuan/ton, significantly rebounding from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 644 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2,460 yuan/ton, slightly rebounding from last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 69 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures inter - month spread changes - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 32 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [46]. Futures - to - spot ratio changes - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.783, and the average spot price ratio was 3.94 [49]. Rapeseed oil - soybean oil and rapeseed oil - palm oil spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated and widened this week. The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 478 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated this week [58]. Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 399 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was reported at 670 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, compared with 819,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 50,000 tons. As of December 5, the estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026 were 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 420,000 tons respectively. As of December 25, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,254 yuan/ton. As of the 51st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 200 tons, a decrease of 70,590 tons compared with 70,790 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and the import volume in the previous month was 0 tons [68][72][76][80]. Rapeseed oil - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with 384,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.74%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with 200,000 tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 15%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with 140,000 tons in the previous month [84]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with 54,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% [88][92]. Rapeseed meal - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with 92,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5,900 tons compared with 220,600 tons in the previous month [96][100]. - **Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [104]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 26, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 18.08%, a rebound of 1.59% from 16.49% last week, at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - A-shares and stock index futures rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chips. The external environment had a greater impact on A-shares due to a lack of macro data. Expectations of a Fed rate cut weakened the US dollar, which supported the stock market sentiment. The market trading activity rebounded significantly [6][12] - The bond market saw continued loose liquidity, with overnight weighted interest rates falling, supporting short-term bonds and guiding long-term interest rates down. Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on structural tools and a more cautious approach to overall easing [6] - Commodity indexes are expected to strengthen further as precious metals and crude oil remain relatively strong, despite weak economic data and deflationary pressures [6] - The US dollar is likely to remain weak in the short term due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the euro and yen may strengthen due to interest rate differentials [7][11] Summary by Section This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stocks**: A-share major indexes rose collectively, with most gains exceeding 2%. Stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. The external environment had a greater impact on the market due to a lack of macro data. The expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened the US dollar, which supported the stock market. The trading activity rebounded. Recommendation: Buy on dips [6][12] - **Bonds**: The bond market had loose liquidity, with short-term bonds supported and long-term interest rates guided down. Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on structural tools. Long positions have weak momentum, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. Recommendation: Range trading [6] - **Commodities**: Economic data was weak, and deflationary pressures remained. However, commodity indexes are expected to strengthen as precious metals and crude oil remain strong. Recommendation: Wait and see [6] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar is likely to remain weak due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the euro and yen may strengthen due to interest rate differentials. Recommendation: Cautious wait-and-see [6][7] Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting maintained a moderately loose tone, with a focus on structural tools. Hainan Free Trade Port's full-island customs closure operation started, expanding the "zero-tariff" commodity range. The government strengthened price regulation of internet platforms. Beijing optimized housing purchase restrictions [14] - **International**: Ukraine announced a "peace plan" draft, but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Trump wants the next Fed chair to cut rates, and the EU extended economic sanctions against Russia. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 30-year high [16] This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The one-year loan prime rate remained unchanged at 3%. The year-on-year growth of total social electricity consumption in November slowed to 6.2% from 10.4% [17] - **US**: The initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than expected. The initial quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 3.5%, also higher than expected [17] Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - **December 30, 2025**: US October S&P/CS 20-city unadjusted home price index annual rate [76] - **December 31, 2025**: China December official manufacturing PMI; US weekly initial jobless claims [76] - **January 2, 2026**: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, and US December manufacturing PMI final values [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.96%. From the current supply - demand situation, the supply of sub - standard products has increased significantly. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.30% week - on - week and increased by 37.17% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the processing enterprises are speeding up production and sales. The sales area is entering the peak consumption season, and the short - term decline in jujube prices may slow down [9][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.96% - As of December 25, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17% - The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end. Processing enterprises in Xinjiang and the mainland are actively arranging production and accelerating the pace of shipment. The market arrival volume is gradually increasing. The sales area is entering the peak consumption season, and the short - term decline in jujube prices may slow down [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.96% [10] - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 15,321 lots [13] - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 1,092 [17] - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 250 yuan/ton [18] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 580 yuan/ton [23] - **Purchase price of bulk jujubes in the main production areas**: As of December 26, 2025, the bulk jujube price in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26] - **Spot price of first - grade jujubes**: As of December 26, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.20 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin [30] - **Spot price of special - grade jujubes**: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.56 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.7 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17% [39] - **Supply side - Production decline possibility**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [43] - **Demand side - Export volume**: In October 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with an export value of 35,238,139 yuan and an average export price of 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 was 25,753,622 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.18% [47] - **Demand side - BOCE Xinjiang jujube trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had a small amount of orders [52] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Relationship - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is summarized here - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but no specific analysis data is summarized here

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. Apple产区 has seen a slight increase in the number of buyers, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is limited. The in - warehouse packaging and shipping have increased. As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas in China was 7.4404 billion tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, with a slower de - stocking speed than the same period last year. The sales area has seen an increase in arrivals. Driven by festivals such as the Winter Solstice and Christmas, the sales have improved slightly compared to the previous period, but there is still pressure on digestion. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate. Future trading should focus on fruit prices and consumption. [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. The number of buyers in apple production areas increased slightly, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods was limited. The cold - storage inventory decreased, but the de - stocking speed was slower than last year. The sales in the sales area improved slightly. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate. Future trading should focus on fruit prices and consumption. [4][6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. As of the end of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 4,848 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0. [6][13] - **Spot Market**: As of December 26, 2025, the mainstream price of fruit farmers' goods of Shandong Yantai Qixia paper - bagged Red Fuji apples above 80 and of the first - and second - grade was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of Shandong Yiyuan paper - bagged Fuji apples above 75 was 2.60 yuan per catty. [16] 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas in China was 7.4404 billion tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, with a slower de - stocking speed than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 52.98%, a decrease of 0.43% from last week, and that in Shaanxi was 56.84%, a decrease of 0.58% from last week. [24] - **Demand Side**: - As of December 25, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0). - As of December 19, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.30 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.30 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 yuan per kilogram. - As of December 19, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.61 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 yuan per kilogram. - In October 2025, China's apple export volume was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.29%, and the export value was 779.12 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%. [26][31][35][39] - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is provided, but specific data is not described in text. [40] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable is presented, but specific analysis is not provided. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply pressure of live pigs is alleviated as the large - scale farms' slaughter progress is normal in the second half of the month, the slaughter pressure at the end of the month decreases, the supply of fat pigs is low, and some second - fattening farmers' willingness to enter the market increases. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage are increasing, and there is stocking demand before the New Year's Day, so the terminal consumption is good, which supports the price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern improves in the short - term, boosting the short - term strong - side oscillation of live pig prices. In the medium - term, the supply pressure still exists, and as the price rises further, the acceptance of the demand terminal will decline, and the attitude of second - fattening farmers will become more cautious, so the medium - term upward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 2.83% weekly [6][10]. - In the near term, the supply - demand situation improves, but in the medium - term, the upward space is limited [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - The futures price rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 2.83% weekly [10]. - As of December 26th, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 5323 hands to 51717 hands, and the number of futures warrants was 863, an increase of 40 from the previous week [16]. - The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1120 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - This week, the basis of the live pig 1 - month contract was 500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3 - month contract was 155 yuan/ton [26]. - The national average price of live pigs was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [36]. - As of the week of December 18th, the national average pork price was 22.53 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [40]. - As of the week of December 10th, the pig - grain ratio was 5.18, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In October 2025, the number of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%, falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the number of live pigs was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - In November, according to Mysteel data, the number of commercial pigs slaughtered in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%, and in small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from the previous week [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of December 26th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 162.8 yuan/head, a reduction of 26.7 yuan/head, and the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, a reduction of 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 broilers was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average of 83,600 tons per month. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - As of the week of December 26th, the price of白条鸡 was 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of December 25th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [73]. - As of December 26th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3174.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2338.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - As of December 26th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 894.54, and the price of finishing pig feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [81]. - In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 52nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous week [92]. - As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.98% and 33.31%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not give specific analysis [98][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals showed marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. Financial data in November was structurally differentiated, with social financing increment exceeding expectations due to direct financing, but credit continued to weaken, and the demand for long - term corporate investment remained weak. CPI continued to improve, while the decline of PPI widened slightly. Overseas, the US economy maintained resilience with strong consumption, but the job market cooled. The market's expectation of future interest - rate cuts increased. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the urgency of short - term interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts rose by 0.27%, 0.14%, 0.08%, and 0.06% respectively. The trading volume of the TS main contract increased, while the trading volumes of the TF, T, and TL main contracts decreased slightly. The open interest of the TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts all increased [13][16][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On December 22, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, with cumulative decreases of 10 basis points this year. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to optimize real - estate policies. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in the fourth quarter emphasized maintaining capital - market stability. The Ministry of Finance and other 9 departments formulated the enterprise climate - information disclosure guidelines. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to regulate the "new three items" industries [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter annually, and consumer spending was the main driving force. Japan's 2026 fiscal - year preliminary budget reached 122.3092 trillion yen, a record high [34][35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the TF and TS, T and TF main contracts widened. The 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' near - far month spreads all widened [43][49][53][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main - Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [67]. - **Interest - Rate Changes**: Overnight and 2 - week Shibor rates decreased, while 1 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52%. The short - end yields of Treasury bond cash bonds were strong, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing by 1.10 - 6.75bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 0.5bp to 1.84% and 2.22% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [69][74]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 210 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed deposits this week, with 457.5 billion yuan in reverse - repo maturities and 120 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposit maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.8 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52% [78]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 983.033 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 1081.165 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 98.132 billion yuan [82]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0358, with a cumulative increase of 192 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The domestic economic internal driving force needs to be boosted. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the short - term urgency of interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99].

进口玉米成交较好 提振盘面震荡收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 玉米类市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡上涨。主力2603合约收盘价为2222元/吨，较上周+30元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。不过，美玉米出口状况良好，且USDA将 2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳，低于分析师预 期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方面，东北产区今年售粮进度同比偏快，粮质 整体较好，基层种植户售粮意向一般，火运发运量明显减少，下游需求支撑不足，粮点及烘干塔 随行出货为主，上量较为有限，成交情况不理想。受畜禽养殖行情不景气。饲料企业补库积极性 减弱，深加工企业库存水平相对安全，对高价玉米接受 ...