证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 24 年 12 月全球半导体销售 570 亿美元，同比增长 17% ——机械行业周报（02.03~02.09） 相关研究： 1.《20250120湘财证券-机械行业： 2024年12月我国金切机床产量8万 台，同比增长35%》 2.《20250205湘财证券-机械行业： 1月我国PMI为49.1%，同比下降0.1 个百分点》 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7.0 7.6 18.5 绝对收益 10.0 2.4 34.2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 行业评级：买入（维持） 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 ❑ 上周机械设备行业上涨 5.5%，跑赢大盘 3.5 个百分点 上周，机械设备行业上涨 5.5%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.5 个百分点。机 械行业中表现较好细分板块为工控设备（12.0%）、机器人（11.2%）、机床 工具（9.0%），表现靠后细分板块分别 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 | 《节前行业小幅上涨，成本端支撑尚可，钕 | | | --- | --- | | 铁硼价格趋稳》 | 20250206 | | 《上周行业延续反弹，成本端坚挺支撑下钕 | | | 铁硼跟涨上调》 | 20250122 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 上周稀土原料价格全面上调，成本端支撑下钕铁硼价坚挺上行 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 10 0 37 绝对收益 12 -6 53 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 上周稀土永磁行业上涨 3.4%，跑赢基准（沪深 300）1.84pct。行业估值 （市盈率 TTM）回升 2.95x 至 89.59x，升至 98.5%历史分位。 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：上周稀土永磁材料行业上涨 3.4%，跑赢基准 1.84pct ❑ ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钢铁行业周报 供增需降，累库持续 相关研究： ❑ 供增需降，累库持续 | 1.《冬储意愿偏弱，钢价震荡下 | | --- | | 行》 2024.12.24 | | 2.《去库持续，关注冬储进程》 | | 2024.12.30 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 3 -1 -10 绝对收益 6 -6 6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 钢铁(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王逸奇 证书编号：S0500524080002 Tel：(8621) 50293519 Email：wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：钢铁板块上涨 2.72%，估值上升 上周钢铁板块（801950.SI）上涨 2.72%，同期沪深 300 上涨 1.98%，行业 跑赢基准指数（沪深 300）0.74 个百分点。钢铁行业板块 PE 估值为 15.5 倍，处于 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 8 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业报告 春节消费氛围浓厚，大众品表现活跃 相关研究： | 1.《酒企加大分红力度，关注新 | | | --- | --- | | 渠道红利》 | 2025.01.06 | | 2.《旺季催化，关注板块性价比 | | | 优势》 | 2025.01.14 | | 3.《烟酒类增速环比改善，关注 | | | 白酒配置机会》 | 2025.01.20 | 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 | 行业评级：买入（维持） | | --- | 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4.8 -5.9 -25.7 绝对收益 -1.5 -9.2 -8.1 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 核心要点： ❑ 春节消费氛围浓厚，电影票房创历史新高 2025 年春节消费市场整体表现回暖，旅游、电影、餐饮等领域表现较优。 与 2024 年相比，2025 年春节消费市场在规模和质 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业事件点评 1 月小松中国挖机开工 66.2 小时，同比下降 17.3% 相关研究： 1《. 20250108湘财证券-机械行业： 12月我国挖机销量约1.9万台，同 比增长16%》 2.《20250110湘财证券-机械行 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -5.0 7.9 -8.5 绝对收益 -9.7 3.5 6.3 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 1 月小松中国挖机开工小时数为 66.2 小时，同比下降 17.3% 近日，小松公布 2025 年 1 月各地区挖掘开工小时数情况。其中，中国 地区 1 月挖 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The total bidding amount for UHV equipment in 2024 reached 27.16 billion, with a focus on the acceleration of grid construction in 2025 [1][3] - The competitive landscape for UHV equipment is concentrated, with the top five companies holding a market share of 63.0% [2][13] - In 2024, the investment in China's grid construction reached 608.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [3][15] Summary by Sections UHV Equipment Bidding - In 2024, the State Grid planned 26 batches of UHV project procurement, with a total bidding amount of 27.16 billion for UHV equipment and 7.53 billion for UHV materials, both showing a decline compared to 2023 [1][7] - Major components in UHV equipment bidding include converter transformers (25.8%), converter valve systems (23.2%), and combined electrical appliances (18.4%) [1][9] Competitive Landscape - The top five companies in UHV equipment bidding include China XD Group (19.7%), Guodian NARI (14.0%), Shandong Electric (11.6%), Pinggao Electric (9.2%), and Tebian Electric (8.6%) [2][13] - The competitive landscape for UHV materials is more fragmented, with the top five companies holding a market share of 31.7% [2][13] Future Procurement and Investment Outlook - The State Grid's investment in 2025 is expected to exceed 650 billion, focusing on optimizing the main grid and enhancing the distribution network [3][15] - The 2025 procurement plan includes 6 batches for UHV equipment, 5 batches for UHV materials, and 12 batches for UHV services [3][17] Investment Recommendations - Long-term investment opportunities are highlighted in domestic grid investments and overseas grid construction, particularly in developed countries [4][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.26 billion to 1.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% [1]. - The industry demand is recovering, driven by domestic machinery updates and policies, with excavator and loader sales expected to grow by 11.7% and decline by 3.9%, respectively [2]. - The company is enhancing its profitability through dual drivers of electrification and internationalization, with overseas revenue increasing significantly from 3.38 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.46 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.89 billion, 31.66 billion, and 35.17 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 9.6%, and 11.1% respectively [10]. - The net profit is expected to be 1.43 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.20 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 64.9%, 25.5%, and 22.7% respectively [10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.44 yuan in 2023 to 1.13 yuan in 2026 [10]. Industry Analysis - The domestic demand for earth-moving machinery is stabilizing, with a recovery trend observed in the market [2]. - The company is responding to both domestic and international market opportunities by enhancing operational efficiency and implementing strategic innovations [2]. Internationalization and Electrification - The company is deepening its international presence through local production and R&D facilities, resulting in a significant increase in overseas revenue share [3]. - The sales of electric loaders in China are projected to grow by 211.8% in 2024, with the market share rising from 3.5% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Views - China Shenhua's 2024 performance is expected to be stable, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 57 billion to 60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% to an increase of 0.5% [3][4] - The coal division's profit decline is the main factor affecting the overall net profit due to a decrease in average coal sales prices [4] - The company has announced a high dividend payout policy, distributing no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in cash for the years 2022-2024, with an increase to 65% for 2025-2027, highlighting its investment value [7][9] Summary by Sections Recent Company Performance - Over the past 12 months, China Shenhua has experienced a relative return of -8.25% over one month, 0.78% over three months, and -11.40% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [2] 2024 Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57 billion to 60 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 27 million to an increase of 3 million yuan year-on-year [4] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 58.5 billion and 61.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% to an increase of 2.2% [4] Coal Production and Sales - In 2024, the company anticipates a coal production of 327 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a sales volume of 459 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The fourth quarter saw a decline in sales volume due to lower-than-expected demand from a warm winter [5] Acquisition and Resource Expansion - The acquisition of 100% equity in Hangjin Energy for 853 million yuan will increase the company's coal reserves by 3.841 billion tons and the recoverable reserves by 2.087 billion tons, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy supply [6] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a stable and predictable profit distribution policy, which is expected to attract long-term capital and enhance investment value [7][9] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 57.1 billion, 56.9 billion, and 58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.88, 2.87, and 2.92 yuan [9]

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 05 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 1 月我国 PMI 为 49.1%，同比下降 0.1 个百分点 ——机械行业周报（01.27~02.02） 相关研究： 1《. 20250113湘财证券-机械行业：24 年11月全球半导体销售578亿美元， 同比增长21%》 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 上周机械设备行业下跌 2.2%，跑输大盘 1.7 个百分点 上周，机械设备行业下跌 2.2%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.7 个百分点。机 械行业中表现较好细分板块为工程机械整机（0.1%）、能源及重型设备 （0.0%）、轨交设备Ⅲ（-0.5%），表现靠后细分板块分别为机器人（-6.2%）、 其他自动化设备（-5.0%）、激光设备（-4.2%）。 ❑ 通用设备：1 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.1%，同比下降 0.1 个百分点 2.《20250120湘财证券-机械行业： 2024年12月 ...