Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for fiscal and tax system reforms, including zero-based budgeting and adjustments in consumption tax collection[2] - Zero-based budgeting aims to enhance the efficiency of fiscal fund usage rather than merely increasing or decreasing funds, aligning with the goal of improving investment effectiveness[2] - A more pronounced expenditure exit mechanism is being established, as seen in Anhui's policy to limit special fund budgets to a maximum of three years, breaking the previous "fixed pattern" of funding[2] Group 2: Budgeting and Funding Strategies - Project-based operations are prioritized, with departments competing for budgets based on project readiness and urgency, as demonstrated in Guangzhou's approach[2] - The integration of scattered fiscal funds into 15 special funds in Anhui aims to improve the efficiency of fiscal fund allocation through cross-departmental coordination[2] - Zero-based budgeting reform is expected to lead to a reduction in redundant expenditures, with Jiangsu saving approximately 1 billion yuan by eliminating duplicate funding applications[2] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The central government is anticipated to further expand fiscal support in 2025, with a focus on enhancing local government financial capacity and ensuring basic service guarantees[2] - The recent pilot projects in Zhengzhou have resulted in a budget reduction of 3 billion yuan, achieving a cut rate of 39% for project expenditures[2] - The emphasis on optimizing budget support models suggests that efficiency improvements will be prioritized over mere increases in total funding, which may have significant long-term impacts on macroeconomic growth[2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with external pressures and the potential inadequacy of domestic reform implementation[3] - The central government's increased fiscal input may not fully offset the larger contraction at the local level, potentially affecting infrastructure and manufacturing investments[3]

- The report highlights the performance of quantitative products, with active quantitative products achieving an average weekly return of 0.04% and quantitative hedging products achieving 0.11%[20][22] - Year-to-date, active quantitative products have delivered an average return of 6.59%, while quantitative hedging products have shown a negative average return of -1.74%[24][25] - Among active quantitative funds, the top performer year-to-date is "Tongtai Financial Selection A" with a net value growth rate of 43.74%[24][26] - For quantitative hedging funds, "Guangda Sunshine Hedging Strategy 6-month Holding A" leads year-to-date with a net value growth rate of 3.89%[24][26] - In the category of index-enhanced funds, "Chuangjin Hexin Beizheng 50 Component Index Enhanced A" has achieved the highest relative benchmark excess return year-to-date at 23.56%[24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, emphasizing a "stop decline and stabilize" policy direction [32]. Core Insights - Since September 24, a series of policies have been introduced, focusing on inclusive policies and aiming for a "stop decline and stabilize" goal. The effectiveness of these policies is noted to be stronger than those from May 17 but weaker than the early 2023 recovery [12][48]. - The new policies have significantly boosted new home sales, with transaction volumes in October and November showing substantial increases compared to September [12][48]. - The report highlights the importance of regulatory adjustments and land exchanges as effective measures for inventory reduction, which could enhance the competitiveness of new homes and activate old land stock [39][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Developments - A series of inclusive policies have been implemented since September 24, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates and adjustments to down payment ratios for second homes [12][15]. - Local governments are encouraged to utilize special bonds for acquiring idle land and stockpiling existing homes, which is expected to improve cash flow and reduce hidden debts [12][15][37]. 2. Market Performance - New home transaction volumes in major cities have shown a significant increase, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month rise of 82% in October and 9% in November [12][19]. - The report indicates that the sales volume in October and November was markedly higher than in September, reflecting the positive impact of the new policies [12][48]. 3. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a critical year for the real estate industry, with expectations of narrowing declines in key indicators such as sales area and investment completion [49]. - The potential for further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and accelerated urban village renovations is highlighted as a means to stabilize the market [49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that property management companies with strong cash flow and resilience to market fluctuations are likely to maintain stable growth and high investment value. Specific companies recommended for investment include Poly Property, China Resources Mixc Life, and Wanwu Cloud [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the textile and apparel industry [20] Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, awaiting clarity on domestic demand fundamentals [15][29] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36% last week, while the textile and apparel industry index fell by 4.01%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext indices [23][22] - The report highlights that the current market activity in the consumer sector is primarily driven by policy expectations, with a potential recovery in the fundamentals of leading consumer stocks as domestic policies continue to focus on boosting domestic demand [22][26] Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.36%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22%. The textile and apparel industry index (CITIC) fell by 4.01%, with the textile manufacturing sector down by 4.3% and the branded apparel sector down by 3.75% [15][23] - Among the covered stocks, Shenzhou International, Lao Feng Xiang, and Huali Group achieved positive returns [15][23] Industry and Company Updates - Major updates include: - Zhou Dazheng plans to open a counter in Chongqing and a specialty store in Wuhan [24] - Xtep International announced a leasing framework agreement for 2024 with Tiger Century [15] - Huali Group is changing the implementation method of part of its fundraising projects without altering the total amount of raised funds [15][36] Recommended Stock Portfolio - The report suggests a stock portfolio including: - Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003, Buy) - Proya Cosmetics (603605, Buy) - Shenzhou International (02313, Buy) - Baoxini (002154, Buy) - Bosideng (03998, Buy) - The performance of the recommended stocks last week varied, with Shenzhou International gaining 3% while others like Baoxini and Proya Cosmetics saw declines [15][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 117.52 [4][6] Core Views - The company's FY2Q2025 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion (+5.2% YoY), slightly below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 239.4 billion, while adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion (-9.1% YoY), slightly above Bloomberg consensus of RMB 35.6 billion [1] - The company continues to optimize its business environment, reduce merchant costs, and enhance user experience, leading to stable profitability and significant shareholder returns through buybacks [1] - Taotian Group's revenue grew by 1.4% YoY to RMB 99 billion, with adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY), driven by increased user investment and improved monetization potential [1] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion, with adjusted EBITA up 89% YoY to RMB 2.7 billion, driven by strong growth in AI-related revenue [1] - International Digital Commerce revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 31.7 billion, with strong performance in cross-border businesses [1] - Cainiao's revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB 24.6 billion, supported by cross-border logistics services [1] - Local Services revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB 17.7 billion, with narrowed losses due to improved operational efficiency [1] - Digital Media and Entertainment revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 5.7 billion, with reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] - The company repurchased USD 4.1 billion worth of shares in FY2Q25, reducing total shares outstanding by 2.1% [1] Business Segment Analysis Taotian Group - Revenue: RMB 99 billion (+1.4% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY) [1] - GMV growth was offset by a decline in AOV, while CMR revenue grew 2.5% YoY to RMB 70.4 billion [1] - User growth: MAU reached a record 944 million, with 88VIP users exceeding 46 million (+50% YoY) [1] - Organizational restructuring: Integration of domestic and international e-commerce under a unified business group [1] - Outlook: GMV is expected to grow steadily, with monetization potential from full-site promotion and service fees [1] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue: RMB 29.6 billion (+7% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 2.7 billion (+89% YoY) [1] - Public cloud revenue grew double-digit YoY, with AI-related revenue growing triple-digit for five consecutive quarters [1] - The company launched the Tongyi Qianwen 2.5 AI model, reducing API call rates to improve cost-effectiveness [1] International Digital Commerce - Revenue: RMB 31.7 billion (+29% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 2.9 billion [1] - Strong growth in cross-border retail, with AliExpress and Trendyol driving performance [1] - International wholesale revenue grew 9% YoY to RMB 6.1 billion [1] Cainiao - Revenue: RMB 24.6 billion (+8% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 60 million [1] - Focus on building a highly digitized global logistics network and enhancing cross-border e-commerce synergies [1] Local Services - Revenue: RMB 17.7 billion (+14% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 400 million [1] - Improved operational efficiency and order growth in Ele.me and Amap [1] Digital Media and Entertainment - Revenue: RMB 5.7 billion (-1% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 200 million [1] - Reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts FY2025-2027 revenue at RMB 10,036/10,916/11,831 billion and adjusted net profit at RMB 1,512/1,715/1,919 billion [4][6] - The company's valuation is estimated at RMB 2,073.8 billion, with a target price of HKD 117.52 per share [4][6] - Taotian Group is valued at RMB 1,352.1 billion using a 9x PE multiple for FY26 [8] - Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at RMB 195.5 billion using a 24x PE multiple for FY26 [66] - International Digital Commerce is valued at RMB 315.1 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [69] - Cainiao is valued at RMB 15.4 billion using a 12x PE multiple for FY26 [43] - Local Services is valued at RMB 150.3 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [12] - Digital Media and Entertainment is valued at RMB 45.5 billion using a PS multiple and market capitalization approach [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the paper and light industry in China [30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment themes in the post-real estate cycle: 1) Focus on the clean appliance sector with significant growth potential and market penetration, recommending companies like Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Ecovacs (603486, Buy); 2) Attention to stable growth companies with high dividend ratios and low historical valuations, recommending Supor (002032, Accumulate), Oppein (603833, Buy), and Sophia (002572, Buy) [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2024/12/23-2024/12/29) - The report notes that all sectors in the post-real estate cycle, except for white and black appliances, underperformed the market. The CSI 300 index rose by 1.36%, while white and black appliance sectors increased by 2.20% and 1.91%, respectively [58]. 2. Domestic Real Estate Demand - In November 2024, the national residential sales area increased by 4.2% year-on-year. However, the cumulative sales area from January to November 2024 decreased by 16.0%. The report also highlights that the residential completion area fell by 40.1% year-on-year in November [68][69]. 3. Retail Tracking - In November 2024, furniture retail sales reached 19 billion yuan, growing by 10.5% year-on-year, while home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales totaled 120 billion yuan, increasing by 22.2% year-on-year [48][59]. 4. Export Performance - The report indicates that in November 2024, home appliance exports grew by 10.1% year-on-year, while furniture and its parts exports decreased by 2.7% [10][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong commitment of technology companies to "All in AI," with a continuous demand for computing power [20][26]. - ByteDance is significantly increasing its investment in computing power and has become the second-largest buyer of NVIDIA chips globally, showcasing the strength of Chinese tech companies in the global AI competition [20][52]. - The AI large model and application sectors are expected to benefit from ongoing iterations and increased investments from various companies [20][52]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Strong Commitment to AI and Computing Power Demand - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of computing power infrastructure, with companies like Xiaomi and Li Auto committing to "All in AI" strategies [20][47]. - Xiaomi is building a GPU cluster and has increased its AI large model investments, with plans to reach R&D expenditures of 24 billion yuan in 2024 and 30 billion yuan in 2025 [20][28]. - Li Auto has transformed into an AI company, aiming to be a top player in the domestic large model sector [20][29]. Section 2: ByteDance's Investment in AI - ByteDance's Volcano Engine has released the Doubao visual understanding model, which has seen significant growth in application scenarios and usage [20][30]. - The Doubao model's daily token usage has exceeded 4 trillion, marking a 33-fold increase since its launch [20][50]. - ByteDance's procurement of approximately 230,000 NVIDIA chips this year positions it as a major player in the AI chip market [20][52]. Section 3: Investment Strategies and Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI large models and applications, including Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and others [20][33]. - For domestic computing power and EDA, companies like Huada Jiutian and Haiguang Information are recommended [20][33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Shandong Publishing with a target price of **15.60 RMB** based on a 2025 P/E multiple of 15x [3][109] Core Views - Shandong Publishing is a leading publishing and distribution company in Shandong Province, with a core focus on textbook and supplementary materials, while actively exploring diversified business layouts [2][3] - The company has a complete industry chain covering publishing, distribution, printing, and material trade, with innovative businesses such as digital publishing, study tourism, smart education, and media integration [2][32] - From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from **9.767 billion RMB** to **12.154 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **5.62%**, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased from **1.544 billion RMB** to **2.376 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **11.37%** [2][40] Business Performance Textbook and Supplementary Materials - The textbook and supplementary materials business has shown steady growth, with publishing revenue CAGR of **10.55%** and distribution revenue CAGR of **7.18%** from 2019 to 2023 [2][75] - The student population in Shandong Province is stable, with **101 million** permanent residents in 2023, ranking second in China, which supports the growth of the textbook business [2][52] - The proportion of middle and high school students in the K12 population increased from **41.1%** in 2016 to **43.6%** in 2022, which is expected to drive demand for supplementary materials [2][54] General Books - The general book market has been relatively weak, with a CAGR of **-2.8%** from 2019 to 2023, but the company's general book publishing and distribution business grew at a CAGR of **3.45%** during the same period [2][88] - In 2023, the company's market share in book retail was **1.39%**, and it has been actively promoting online sales through digital transformation [2][116] New Business Layouts - The study tourism business grew rapidly, with revenue increasing by over **60%** in the first half of 2024 [2][119] - The company is developing smart education projects, such as the "Homework + Learning Diagnosis Big Data Feedback" project, which integrates textbook publishing with big data technology [2][123] - The company is also exploring new service scenarios in bookstores, such as "Senior Citizen University" and "Xinhua Study Room" [97][126] Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, the company's gross margin remained stable at **36%-39%**, while the net margin increased from **15.8%** to **19.5%** [68][70] - The company has consistently increased cash dividends, with the dividend payout ratio rising from **43.25%** in 2019 to **49.19%** in 2023 [45][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of **1.957 billion RMB**, **2.177 billion RMB**, and **2.314 billion RMB** in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of **0.94 RMB**, **1.04 RMB**, and **1.11 RMB** [3][25] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of **6.9%**, **4.3%**, and **4.2%** from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins remaining stable at around **37.6%-37.8%** [106][108]

孙怡萱 sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 居民购房更加关注实得面积 | 2024-12-23 | | 中央经济工作会议强调稳楼市 | 2024-12-17 | | 上海政策效果持续性强 | 2024-12-10 | 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 ⚫ 第 52周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-4.9%。沪深 300 指数报收 3981.03，周度涨幅为 1.4%；创业板指 数报收 2204.90，周度涨幅-0.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2225.78，周度涨幅为 -3.5%。 ⚫ 中央政策方面。全国住房城乡建设工作会议提出 2025 年要大力实施城市更新谋划 实施一批城市更新改造项目。地方政策方面。桂林、淮南市、北海市等对住房公积 金政策进行了优化，包括取消异地购房提取限制、提高租房提取额度、降低首付比 例等；襄阳市、成都双流区等提供了购房补贴；太原市出台措施规范房地产 ...

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