乘联会预估 12 月行业销量同环比继续增 长，问界 M9 大定突破 20 万辆 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，近期较多车企及重点新能源车型销量表现亮眼，预计后续汽车以旧换 新政策对车市的拉动效果将持续释放；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面 领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强对外合作 等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及华为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链及机器人产业链公司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆科技、精锻 科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛 西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃等。 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 中性 （维持） | | 国家 / 地区 | ...

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2012/022012/062012/102013/032013/072013/112014/042014/082014/122015/052015/092016/022016/062016/102017/032017/072017/112018/042018/082018/122019/052019/092020/022020/062020/102021/032021/072021/112022/042022/082022/122023/052023/092024/022024/062024/10 造纸及纸制品业:产成品存货（亿元） 机制纸及纸板制造:产成品存货（万吨）（右轴） ⚫ 宏观经济增速放缓、终端需求下滑幅度超预期的风险：若欧美或国内宏观经济增速发生较大 波动，则木浆需求将受到较大影响，木浆价格具备下跌风险；若终端需求下滑幅度超预期， 则成品纸价也将存在下跌风险，造纸企业盈利存在大幅波动的风险。 Tabl e_Disclai mer 分析师申明 买 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating optimism about future growth prospects [41]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing a rebound in sentiment, with the AI application landscape showing strong user growth and commercial viability. The report highlights that AI applications are becoming essential for users, particularly in practical scenarios, and that the commercialization of AI is accelerating in both domestic and international markets [67][23]. - The demand for AI computing power is robust, driving the need for domestic alternatives in AI chips and EDA software, especially in light of increasing restrictions from the U.S. on China's access to advanced computing capabilities [67][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, and notes that the development of the HarmonyOS ecosystem is gaining momentum [67][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview and Future Outlook - The computer industry index has shown volatility in 2024, with a significant rebound following a downturn in Q1. The overall sentiment in the industry is improving due to macroeconomic policy adjustments [53][67]. - The report notes that the computer sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 784.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while net profit saw a significant decline of 50% [54][67]. 2. AI Product Usage and Commercialization - Global AI product usage continues to rise, with significant performance from U.S. AI application companies. The report highlights that practical tools and vertical applications are becoming essential for users, driving the acceleration of commercialization [60][67]. - The report identifies that AI Agents are emerging as a new wave of technology with substantial potential for monetization, gaining traction in both consumer and business markets [67][10]. 3. AI Computing Power and Domestic Alternatives - The demand for AI computing power remains strong, with ongoing investments in intelligent computing centers across China. The report indicates that over 250 intelligent computing centers are currently established or under construction [26][67]. - The report discusses the challenges and opportunities in the EDA sector, noting that domestic companies are accelerating their development efforts in response to U.S. export controls [67][19]. 4. Self-Sufficiency and Ecosystem Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in response to U.S. sanctions. The development of the HarmonyOS ecosystem is highlighted as a significant advancement, with a growing number of devices and applications [67][19]. - The report suggests that companies involved in the domestic software and hardware ecosystem are likely to benefit from these trends, particularly in the context of national support for self-reliance in technology [67][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1721.90 CNY per share [27][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to increase the supply of its 1000ml Moutai liquor, reinforcing its position as a key product in its portfolio. The sales volume for Moutai liquor is projected to see a slight increase in 2025 [24]. - The company aims for a sales growth rate of no less than 15% for its Moutai sauce-flavored liquor in 2025, with a significant increase in marketing expenses to strengthen brand recognition [24]. - The company is likely to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a current valuation at a low point and a generous dividend yield of 3.3%, providing a strong margin of safety for investors [24]. Financial Projections - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 67.48 CNY, 73.25 CNY, and 81.50 CNY respectively, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from previous estimates [25][31]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 170,836 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [26]. - The company's operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 116,708 million CNY, with a growth rate of 12.5% [26]. Valuation Metrics - The company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated to be 10.00% [31]. - The estimated enterprise value is 2,106,192 million CNY, with an equity value of 2,163,046 million CNY [2].

| --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------| | | | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照： BSW124 | | 谢雨辰 | xieyuchen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860524090001 | 1.1 二级市场表现： 2024 年轻工制造板块表现弱于大盘，造纸、家居细分板块龙头表现相 对较好................................................................................................................................5 1.2 行业基本面回顾：需求相对疲软，基本面表现前高后低...............................................6 3 地产后周期产业链：以旧换新补 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 33.24 HKD for 2025 [8][18]. Core Insights - The company is a global small molecule innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, established in 2000, focusing on oncology with three commercialized products and several late-stage clinical drugs. It has achieved a revenue CAGR of 23.1% from 2017 to 2023 and recorded its first profit of 101 million USD in 2023 [17][59]. - The company is expanding its innovative products into international markets, with significant progress in the commercialization of its drugs, particularly focusing on the colorectal cancer indication for Furquintinib and the EGFR-TKI resistant market for Savolitinib [17][63]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 426.41 million USD, with a year-on-year growth of 96.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 100.78 million USD, marking a 127.93% increase [7]. - Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 680.01 million USD, 844.08 million USD, and 1000.34 million USD, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -18.85%, 24.13%, and 18.51% [7][18]. Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - The company has a robust pipeline with several products in various stages of development. Furquintinib is being marketed for gastrointestinal tumors and has recently been launched in major markets including the US, EU, and Japan. Savolitinib targets the EGFR-TKI resistant market and is expected to submit an NDA in the US soon [17][40][63]. - The company is also focusing on autoimmune diseases and hematological malignancies, with innovative products like Syk inhibitor Sogrolimab and IDH1/2 dual inhibitors for AML [17][60]. Management and Corporate Structure - The company is backed by a stable management team with extensive experience in drug discovery, development, and commercialization. The largest shareholder is Cheung Kong Holdings, holding 38.16% of the shares [54][56].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 鹰派联储风险定价更进一步 研究结论 风险提示 美国经济硬着陆风险。再通胀风险。假设条件变化影响测算结果的风险。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|------------| | | | | | | | | | 烧灯续昼： 2025 年海外宏观展望 | | 2024-12-19 | | 强美元步入间歇窗口期：——海外宏观札 记 1209 | | 2024-12-10 | | 紧缩交易压力加码：——海外宏观札记 1118 | | 2024-11-20 | | 大选交易惯性运行：——海外宏观札记 1111 | | 2024-11-18 | 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 鹰派联储风险定价更进一步 市场表现（20241215-202412022） 油价格波动延续。黄金价格维持震荡。比特币价格波动加剧。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|----------|--------| | | WTD | 近 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on strong fundamentals and growth potential in the liquor sector [3][13]. Core Insights - The report recommends prioritizing investments in leading liquor companies such as Jinshiyuan (603369), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198), all rated as "Buy" for their expected growth over the next 1-2 years [3]. - It also highlights the potential for investment reversals, suggesting a focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao (000568) and Shede Liquor (600702), which are expected to benefit from valuation and performance reversals [3]. - The report identifies strong growth prospects for Yanjing Beer (000729) and Qingdao Beer (600600), both rated as "Buy," due to their recovery from low bases and potential for reform-driven growth [3]. - Chongqing Beer (600132) is also recommended as a "Buy" due to its favorable market expectations and recovery in the on-premise consumption channel [3]. Summary by Sections - **Liquor Sector**: The report emphasizes the dual attributes of cyclical resilience and dividend appeal in the liquor sector, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu actively distributing dividends, enhancing their attractiveness [15][16]. - **Beer Sector**: The beer segment is expected to benefit from a recovery in on-premise consumption, with both volume and price anticipated to improve in 2025 [16]. - **Dairy Products**: The report highlights Yili Group (600887) as a key focus, suggesting that a reversal in milk price cycles could lead to significant profit and valuation increases [16].

纺织服装行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 大促过后 11 月可选消费品增速有所回落 风险提示 行情回顾 【滔搏】公司发布 2024—2025 年度第三季度运营表现公告。公司零售及批发业务总销售额同比 下跌；直营门店面积较上一季度减少 2.1%，同比减少 4.4%。 纺织服装行业行业周报 —— 大促过后11月可选消费品增速有所回落 告时， | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 看好 （维持） | | | | | 国家 / 地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2024 年 12 月 25 日 | 施红梅 ⚫ 行情回顾：上周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.14%，创业板指数下跌 1.15%，纺织服装行业 指数（中信）下跌 3.34%，表现弱于沪深 300 和创业板指数，其中纺织制造板块 （中信）下跌 2.52%，品牌服饰板块（中信）下跌 4.05%。我们覆盖的个股中伟星 股份、周大生和波司登等取得了较高收益。 ⚫ 行业与公司重要信息：（1）新澳股份：全资子公司邓肯有限公司拟通过增 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the machinery equipment industry, driven by economic recovery, policy support, and global manufacturing competitiveness [12] Core Views - The machinery equipment industry is expected to experience a turning point in its growth cycle, supported by domestic economic recovery, policy incentives, and global manufacturing trends [2] - Overseas expansion opportunities are significant, particularly in Belt and Road countries, with a focus on quality, aftermarket services, and localization [2] - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and humanoid robotics, are expected to drive new growth opportunities, with potential mass production by 2025 [2] - Policy support, including debt resolution and equipment renewal subsidies, is expected to bolster demand for machinery, particularly in construction and energy sectors [2] Overseas Expansion - Chinese machinery companies have made significant progress in overseas markets, with notable revenue and profit growth in the past 2-3 years [2] - Key markets such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and South America continue to show stable growth in machinery demand [17] - Chinese machinery exports to Belt and Road countries have increased, with Africa and South America showing particularly strong growth [90] - Leading Chinese companies like Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion have seen substantial growth in overseas revenue, with overseas revenue accounting for 44-60% of total revenue in 2024H1 [134] Technological Advancements - Humanoid robotics is expected to see significant growth, with Tesla and Chinese companies leading the way in product development and potential mass production by 2025 [2] - Domestic policy support for high-end equipment and autonomous technologies is expected to accelerate the adoption of humanoid robots and other advanced machinery [2] - Core components such as frameless torque motors, reducers, and force sensors are key areas for cost reduction and domestic substitution [121] Policy Support and Industry Recovery - Government policies, including debt resolution and equipment renewal subsidies, are expected to drive demand for construction machinery and industrial equipment [2] - The energy sector, particularly coal chemical and new energy, is expected to benefit from policy support and innovation in resource development [2] - The machinery industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, driven by government-led infrastructure investments and structural adjustments in manufacturing [81] Key Companies to Watch - Industrial equipment: Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Yizumi, Haitian International, Haitian Precision, etc [3] - Overseas and construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Zhejiang Dingli, etc [3] - Humanoid robotics: Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, Mingzhi Electric, etc [3] - Energy equipment: Mayer, Jiejie Weichuang, Xian Dao Intelligent, etc [3] Market Trends and Data - Machinery exports to Belt and Road countries have grown significantly, with Russia, Southeast Asia, and Brazil being key markets [42] - The global machinery market is experiencing a shift, with Chinese companies gaining market share in regions like Africa and South America [90] - The humanoid robotics sector has seen a surge in investment, with domestic and international companies raising significant funds for development [115]