2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20251215-20251219） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 12 月 19 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 347 只，发行规模总计 3705.49 亿元，环比减少 19.36%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 170 只，发行规模达 1633.10 亿元，环比 减少 12.44%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.07%；城投债共发行 138 只， 发行规模达 879.59 亿元，环比减少 0.96%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 23.74%；金融债共发行 39 只，发行规模达 1192.80 亿元，环比减少 35.24%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 32.19%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.63 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.14 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "No Rating" status for the company [5] Core Insights - Domestic business is progressing steadily while international business is experiencing rapid growth. The subsidiary Lombard is expected to turn profitable this year. The company's gross margin is anticipated to recover to over 70% for the year, driven by improved production efficiency and a domestic raw material utilization rate exceeding 85% [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue grew by 64.68% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year. However, profit declined year-on-year mainly due to product price adjustments. The overseas business has become a significant growth driver, with revenue growth exceeding 65% in the first three quarters, accounting for 18% of total revenue, and an overall gross margin of 50% for international operations [1] - The R&D pipeline is progressing steadily, with several key products expected to be launched soon. The Hector thoracic aortic multi-branch stent system has successfully completed its first clinical implantation in November, and other products are on track for approval within the next year [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is a leader in the domestic aortic and peripheral intervention fields. Revenue in Q3 2025 achieved high growth from a low base, with ongoing expansion in overseas and peripheral businesses. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 633 million and 705 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 848 million yuan. The net profit growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 26.0%, 11.4%, and 20.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 16 times for 2026 [3][4]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 总量研究 如何看待"失真"的美国通胀数据？ ——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国通胀温和上涨，为后续降息打开空间— — 2025 年 8 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-09-12） 关税传导可控，降息预期升温——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-08-13） 关税影响逐步显性化——2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-07-16） 美国通胀压力何时显现？——2025年5月美 国 CPI 数据点评（2025-06-12） 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现—— 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-14） 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating an expected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The launch of "Ant Financial's AI Health Assistant" named "Antifufu" has led to a significant increase in downloads, reaching the top 3 in the Apple App Store and surpassing 15 million monthly active users, positioning it as the leading AI health management app in China [1]. - The AI companion model of Antifufu is expected to enhance user engagement and retention by transforming healthcare interactions from low-frequency to high-frequency, effectively linking patients with pharmaceuticals and services [2]. - Antifufu's integration of over 500 national-level experts into its AI model provides a 24/7 accessible service, democratizing access to top-tier medical resources [1][2]. - The seamless integration of medical consultation, online medication purchase, and insurance services creates a comprehensive "medical + pharmaceutical + insurance" ecosystem, significantly reducing transaction friction and enhancing user experience [2]. - Antifufu is the first domestic large model to pass a dual-domain credible assessment by the National Communication Institute, marking a transition from experimental validation to industrial application, which is expected to alleviate concerns from B-end institutions regarding the reliability of large models [3]. Summary by Sections AI + Home Devices - Antifufu has opened access to smart devices from nine major brands, including Yuyue and Omron, allowing for unified processing of health data, which is particularly beneficial for users in lower-tier cities [4]. - The combination of AI doctors and home devices is anticipated to serve as a digital family doctor, replacing offline consultations in grassroots markets [4]. AI + Offline Health Checkups - Alibaba and Ant Financial are significant strategic investors in Meinian Health, which possesses the largest offline health checkup database in China, providing essential data for calibrating Antifufu's AI model [4]. - Meinian's health reports can be interpreted through Antifufu, enhancing the value of both platforms [4]. AI + Pharmaceutical Retail and Services - The primary outcome of online consultations is medication purchases, with chain pharmacies positioned to capture the precise demand generated by Antifufu [4]. - Companies such as Alibaba Health and Shuyu Pingmin are recommended for investment consideration due to their close partnership with Antifufu [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [5][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's AI strategy is characterized as a long-distance race rather than a sprint, with significant investments planned for the next five years, exceeding 200 billion RMB [5]. - The newly released Mimo-V2-Flash model demonstrates industry-leading performance with a lightweight design featuring 309 billion total parameters and 15 billion activation parameters, outperforming competitors in key metrics [2]. - Xiaomi has established the largest consumer hardware platform globally, with 1.8 billion connected devices, including 740 million active mobile users and over 1 billion IoT devices, which provides a robust foundation for AI technology deployment [3]. Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The Mimo-V2-Flash model achieves a 2.0 to 2.6 times increase in inference speed and has a throughput of 5000-15000 tokens per second, significantly enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness for large-scale AI applications [2]. - The model is fully open-sourced, with APIs and web experiences available, aiming to attract global developers and create a positive feedback loop for model iteration [2]. Hardware Ecosystem - Xiaomi's hardware ecosystem includes 1.8 billion connected devices, with a focus on personal, automotive, and home devices, which enhances the potential for AI technology applications [3]. Software Infrastructure - The upcoming release of the Pengpai OS 3 in August 2025 will enhance ecosystem collaboration, supporting over 60 applications and 70 scenarios, with a daily active user base of 410 million [4]. - The Vela lightweight system and MINT platform are designed to facilitate AI deployment across various devices, with over 100 open-source partners contributing to the ecosystem [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 270.97 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 635.31 billion RMB by 2027, and Non-IFRS net profits projected to rise from 19.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 50.97 billion RMB in 2027 [6][26]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in Non-IFRS earnings per share, from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.96 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [6][26].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a significant housing reform plan proposed by Trump, focusing on reducing mortgage costs, activating supply markets, and lowering interest rates, although the effectiveness may be limited due to political constraints [2] - Salted Fish's (盐津铺子) 2025 restricted stock incentive plan emphasizes profit as the primary assessment metric, which is expected to enhance employee morale and performance [3] Group 2: Company Research - The 2025-2027 EPS forecasts for Salted Fish are projected at 2.88, 3.30, and 3.89 yuan respectively, with current P/E ratios of 25, 21, and 18 times [3] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Salted Fish, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3] Group 3: Market Data - The A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3876.37, up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97 [4] - In the overseas market, the Dow Jones closed at 47885.97, down by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.16% to 6721.43 [4]

Group 1: Housing Reform Overview - Trump announced a radical housing reform plan to address the worsening housing affordability issue, which has become the second most important concern for voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections[2] - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has increased from 28 in 1991 to 38 in 2024, indicating a significant affordability crisis[3] - Housing costs have risen faster than inflation and income growth from 2020 to 2024, with rent constituting over 30% of household income for many renters[3] Group 2: Proposed Measures - Key measures include extending mortgage terms from 30 to 50 years, which could reduce monthly payments from $1,530 to $1,294 for a $300,000 home at a 5% interest rate[9] - The government is considering transferable mortgages, allowing buyers to take over existing loans with lower rates, as over half of current homeowners have rates below 4%[9] - Trump plans to declare a national housing emergency to release federal land for new housing construction, potentially allowing for the construction of 3 million new single-family homes[12] Group 3: Economic Impact and Challenges - Tariffs on key building materials have increased construction costs, with steel and aluminum facing 50% tariffs, leading to a projected 4.1% decline in overall construction output over the next three years[4] - The housing market remains weak despite recent interest rate cuts, as mortgage rates are still high due to the risk premium associated with long-term U.S. Treasury yields[5] - The proposed reforms face legislative and judicial hurdles, including the need to amend existing laws to extend mortgage terms and the potential for legal challenges to the emergency declaration[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has introduced a stock incentive plan for 2025, involving 3 million shares, which is 1.10% of the total share capital. The plan aims to enhance the motivation of key personnel by expanding the range of incentivized employees [1][2] - The performance assessment for the incentive plan focuses on profit, with specific targets set for net profit over the years 2026 to 2028. The targets include a net profit of no less than 8.5 billion yuan in 2026 and a cumulative net profit of no less than 31 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9 billion yuan in 2026 and 10.6 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a high degree of certainty in reaching the set targets [3] Financial Summary - The company's projected financials show a net profit of 787 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.91% compared to the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 [4][10] - Revenue is expected to grow from 6 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 8 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 37.73% in 2025 and around 36.79% in 2027 [12]

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Tax revenue growth has declined from high levels, while non-tax revenue shows marginal improvement, and government spending has significantly increased, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related budgets [2] - Local government debt limits have been set and used to supplement local government financial resources, leading to improved government fund revenues [2] - The issuance of new special bonds for the year is nearing completion, which is beneficial for stabilizing infrastructure investment [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to a "technical" disturbance from government shutdowns, with many federal employees on forced leave counted as unemployed [3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, the private sector remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term, despite the unexpected rise in unemployment [3] Group 3: Company Research - Chiwan Technology - Chiwan Technology (9911.HK) is positioned as a leading player in overseas social media, focusing on a "bush" product matrix strategy [4] - The company has demonstrated a clear path to growth and profitability through successful product replication strategies and extensive layout in emerging social entertainment markets [4] - Revenue projections for Chiwan Technology are estimated at 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.95 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion RMB respectively [4] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 14.5 HKD [4]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.8%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +1.4%, down from +2.0%[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.9%, compared to -2.8% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +13.7%, down from +15.4%[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In November, tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -0.02%, with a significant drop in central government revenue by -4.23% and an increase in local government revenue by +4.05%[3] - The four major tax categories experienced a decline in growth rates, with individual income tax growth at +11.43%, consumption tax at +3.31%, and domestic VAT at +3.31%[4] - Corporate income tax growth turned negative, dropping by 12.49 percentage points, likely due to a slowdown in the cleanup of irregular tax subsidies[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in November showed a year-on-year decline of -15.8%, an improvement from -18.4% in the previous month[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +2.8%, a significant recovery from -38.2%[25] - The cumulative progress of government fund budget revenue for the first 11 months was 64.4%, below the five-year average of 71.5%[25] Infrastructure and Debt Management - The issuance of new local special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 96.9% against the annual plan[34] - The acceleration of fiscal spending in November was evident, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related expenditures, which improved significantly[15] - The overall fiscal deposit decline in November indicates a faster allocation of fiscal funds to projects, supporting infrastructure investment stability[15]