1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Prudent control of the scale of bond net - buying is the most appropriate approach at the initial stage of restarting bond purchases to avoid the superposition and resonance of the two channels affecting bond yields [1][3] - The ideal state is that investors treat information on treasury bond trading operations like daily open - market reverse repurchase operations, and the central bank can flexibly use open - market treasury bond trading tools to inject base money and adjust bank - system liquidity without overly affecting bond yields [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why did the central bank only purchase 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds? - On January 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection situation of the central bank's various tools in December 2025, showing a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading tools. Compared with the monthly net purchases of 100 - 300 billion yuan from August to December 2024, the monthly net purchases of 20 - 50 billion yuan since the restart of treasury bond trading in October 2025 are relatively small. Prudent control of the purchase scale is appropriate in the initial months after restarting bond purchases [1] Impact of open - market treasury bond trading on bond yields - Open - market treasury bond trading affects bond yields through two channels. The asset - liability - sheet channel is that the central bank's trading of treasury bonds changes market supply - and - demand relations, and the expected channel is that investors trade on the information of the central bank's treasury bond trading, increasing the volatility of bond yields. The decline in yields largely comes from the expected channel [2] Measures to suppress the impact of the expected channel - The way to suppress the second channel is to dilute investors' attention to the central bank's bond purchases and weaken the relationship between the central bank's bond purchases and yields. At the beginning of restarting bond purchases, it is necessary to control the scale of bond net purchases to avoid the superposition of the two channels. When the market no longer overly focuses on the central bank's bond - purchase scale, the central bank can gradually increase the scale [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The new regulations on commercial real - estate investment trusts (REITs) and a package of supporting documents have been implemented, marking a new chapter in the REITs market. The pilot of commercial real - estate REITs has been launched, and the market's institutional system has been further improved [3]. - Commercial real - estate REITs are expected to be accelerated. Investors are advised to actively follow the first - batch products. The double - track review system is expected to improve review efficiency and accelerate market expansion [3]. - Multiple mechanisms have been supplemented and improved, which will be applied to the entire REITs market and are expected to be implemented quickly in the commercial real - estate REITs pilot [3]. - Attention should be paid to the expansion of new sources of market funds. The CSRC's Document No. 63 proposes measures to attract more funds, and investors can expect market recovery and focus on undervalued heavy - weight stocks [3]. - In late 2025, the REITs market fluctuated. Investors are advised to focus on products with strong underlying asset demand and pay attention to expansion and fundraising [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs REITs Package Policy Documents Issued - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, and the Asset Management Association of China issued a package of policy documents to launch the commercial real - estate REITs pilot and improve the REITs market system [4]. - The CSRC issued two documents to promote the development of commercial real - estate REITs, improve basic systems, and strengthen supervision [4]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised relevant business rules and guides, extended the scope of application of the "Real Estate Fund Business Measures" to commercial real - estate REITs, and exempted certain fees [4]. - The Asset Management Association of China revised two self - regulatory rules to provide guidance on due diligence and operation [4]. Commercial REITs Pilot Initiation - The official version of the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot of Commercial Real - Estate Investment Trust Funds" only supplements the product definition. The scope of commercial real - estate REITs is broad, including commercial complexes, retail, offices, and hotels [6]. - The CSRC's Document No. 63 and the "Notice on the Pilot of Commercial Real - Estate REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges" promote the stable and healthy development of commercial real - estate REITs, accelerate the launch of high - quality products, and encourage asset mixing and expansion [8][9]. - The pilot aims to revitalize existing assets, increase direct financing, and support the new real - estate development model. The scope of original equity holders is expanded, and the use of recycled funds is restricted [11]. - The review process for commercial real - estate REITs is clear. The submission of application materials starts from December 31, 2025, and the review focuses on key aspects such as project information, operation, and finance [12][16]. Optimization of REITs Issuance and Information Disclosure Mechanisms - The CSRC's Document No. 63 and the "Notice on the Pilot of Commercial Real - Estate REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges" optimize the REITs issuance and trading mechanisms, including improving the inquiry pricing,配售, and market - making mechanisms [21]. - The information disclosure system for REITs is strengthened, with clear requirements for different real - estate formats in annual, semi - annual, and quarterly reports [21]. - The revised rules for inquiry pricing and information disclosure are beneficial for market development, although they may increase the difficulty of pricing and trading strategies [22]. Further Improvement of REITs Rule System - The CSRC's Document No. 63 proposes three measures to expand the sources of funds: enriching the REITs index system, guiding long - term funds into the market, and including REITs in the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect [23]. - Historical data shows that the entry of incremental funds can boost the REITs market. The introduction of index funds and long - term funds is expected to improve market liquidity and stability [27]. - The expansion and merger mechanisms, market - based pricing mechanism, and other aspects are improved. Expansion is expected to be an important way for market expansion, and the pricing mechanism is moving towards marketization [31][32]. - The review process is optimized, and supervision and risk prevention are strengthened. The quality control system and supervision mechanism are improved to ensure the healthy development of the REITs market [34].

2026 年 1 月 5 日 总量研究 被动资金显著加仓周期主题 ETF，国防军工主题基金表现占优 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20260105 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.12.29-2025.12.31）黄金价格下跌，国内权益市场指数震荡分化。行业 方面，本周石油石化、国防军工、传媒行业涨幅居前，公用事业、食品饮 料、电力设备行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周股混基金净值回撤，流动 性资产维持正收益。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数表现来看，本周国防军工主题基 金净值上涨，其余主题基金净值均呈现回调，周期主题基金净值相对抗跌。 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，国防军工主题基金本周净值上涨 0.93%；周期、 TMT、金融地产、行业轮动、行业均衡、消费、新能源、医药基金本周净值 分别下跌 0.16%、0.29%、0.60%、0.61%、0.69%、1.14%、2.27%、 2.59%。 ETF 市场跟踪：本周股票型 ETF 资金流向转为净流出，资金减仓大盘宽基 ETF，明显加仓周期主题 ETF。 股票型 ETF 本周收益中位数为-0.4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In December 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 19.8% year-on-year, while showing a month-on-month increase of 40% [1] - The top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of CNY 189.5 billion in December 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 12.0% and a month-on-month increase of 49.3% [1] - The report highlights a significant regional differentiation in the real estate market, with high-capacity cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 341.5 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 28.0% and a month-on-month increase of 39.7% [1][2] - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative total sales for the top 100 companies reached CNY 3.36 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% [2] Top Companies Analysis - Among the top 50 companies, the average year-on-year sales decline was 12.8%, with a median decline of 16.9% for the year 2025 [3] - In December 2025, five out of the top 20 mainstream companies reported positive year-on-year sales growth, with notable performances from Sunac China (+74.4%) and Greenland Holdings (+42.2%) [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong regional development capabilities and high credit ratings, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [4] 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brands, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4] 3. Long-term growth potential in the property service sector, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [4][70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" for steel and non-ferrous metals [5] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have seen a decline for the first time since October 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][2] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises is tightening, with the BCI index dropping to 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% month-on-month [1][19] - The national steel PMI new orders index decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 45.4% in December, reflecting a slowdown in demand [22][43] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises is at 47.15, down 10.19% from the previous month [1] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a strong positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with M1-M2 growth rate difference at -3.1 percentage points in November 2025 [1][19] - The current price of London gold is $4,333 per ounce, down 4.41% from last week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index fell to 45.4%, indicating a decrease in new orders [22][43] - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,100 CNY/ton and glass at 1,153 CNY/ton [77][79] - The national average capacity utilization rate for cement is 30.14%, up 12.4 percentage points from the previous week [61] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for December is at 50.80% [2] - Major commodity prices show mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices down by 0.26% and 0.32%, respectively, while aluminum prices increased by 0.50% [2] - Tungsten concentrate prices have decreased to 454,500 CNY/ton, down 1.3% from the previous week [2][9] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.59%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, up 3.92% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained due to government measures, potentially leading to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 56.65 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 44 times for 2026 [4][6][15]. Core Insights - The company, 麦澜德, is a leader in the pelvic floor dysfunction (PFD) market in China, focusing on women's health and beauty through a dual-driven model of "medical + consumer" [1][3]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering the entire lifecycle of women's health, including pelvic floor rehabilitation, reproductive health, anti-aging, and sports rehabilitation [1][3][4]. - The company has a strong technological foundation with various energy source technologies and has developed an AI-assisted pelvic rehabilitation diagnosis and treatment system that is internationally leading [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - 麦澜德 was founded in 2013 and has become a leading brand in the domestic PFD market, focusing on the research, production, and sales of pelvic and obstetric rehabilitation devices [1][22]. - The company has expanded its product offerings through self-research and acquisitions, covering over 8,700 hospitals and 6,000 outpatient professional institutions by mid-2025 [1][22]. Market Potential - The prevalence of PFD among women in China is high, with over 280 million potential patients, indicating a vast market demand [2][4]. - The company has established a full-cycle service model from screening to home rehabilitation, enhancing clinical efficiency and precision [2][4]. Business Growth - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% in revenue and 10.4% in net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][4]. - The reproductive health and anti-aging product lines are expected to grow at a CAGR of 90.1% from 2021 to 2024, driven by increasing health awareness and aging population [3][4]. Technological Advancements - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is projected to grow significantly, with the company actively developing high-barrier BCI technologies and participating in national-level research projects [4][4]. - The company plans to launch BCI-related products starting in 2026, which are expected to contribute to revenue [4][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.09 billion CNY, 1.30 billion CNY, and 1.57 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 19%, and 22% [4][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.69 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.5% [5][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs in China continued the downward trend in December 2025. The performance of REITs was weaker compared to other mainstream asset classes. The primary market had new product applications and acceptances, and the policy environment was optimized with the expansion of the REITs issuance scope and the introduction of relevant development promotion policies [1][2][40] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Listed Projects - As of December 31, 2025, there were 78 publicly - offered REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 201.749 billion yuan (excluding expansion). The traffic infrastructure category had the largest issuance scale at 68.771 billion yuan, followed by the park infrastructure category at 32.933 billion yuan. In December 2025, one new REIT, Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT, was listed, with an issuance scale of 2.448 billion yuan and an asset type of warehousing and logistics [11]. 3.1.2 Pending - Listing Projects - As of December 31, 2025, there were 19 REITs pending listing, including 16 initial - offering REITs and 3 REITs pending expansion. During the month, the project status of several REITs was updated, such as "accepted", "feedback received", "declared", and "approved" [14]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Performance 3.2.1 Price Trends - **At the level of major asset classes**: In December 2025, the secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs continued the downward trend. The returns of China's publicly - offered REITs were - 2.51%, ranking behind A - shares, convertible bonds, gold, pure bonds, and US stocks, and ahead of crude oil [16]. - **At the underlying asset level**: Both equity - type and franchise - type REITs' prices declined, with franchise - type REITs having a larger decline. Among different underlying asset types, new infrastructure - type REITs had the largest increase, and new infrastructure and affordable housing - type REITs had better returns at 1.24% and 0.05% respectively [20][22]. - **At the single - REIT level**: In December 2025, 23 REITs rose and 55 fell. The top three in terms of increase were Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT, CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT [24]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: In December 2025, the trading volume of publicly - offered REITs decreased compared to the previous month. The water conservancy facilities - type REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were traffic infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and park infrastructure categories. The top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were water conservancy facilities, municipal facilities, and new infrastructure categories [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were CICC Puluosi REIT, Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT. The top three in terms of trading amount were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, and Zheshang HuHangYong REIT. The top three in terms of turnover rate were Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT, CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT, and ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT [27]. 3.2.3 Main - Force Net Inflow and Block Trading - **Main - force net inflow situation**: In December 2025, the total main - force net inflow was 119.71 million yuan, indicating an increase in market trading enthusiasm compared to the previous month. The top three underlying asset types in terms of main - force net inflow were traffic infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and warehousing and logistics. The top three single REITs in terms of main - force net inflow were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT, and China Merchants Expressway REIT [30]. - **Block trading situation**: In December 2025, the total block - trading amount was 1.29 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous month. There were block trades on 19 trading days. December 29 had the highest single - day block - trading amount. The top three single REITs in terms of block - trading amount were Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet Mall REIT, China Merchants Expressway REIT, and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT [35]. 3.3 Related Policies - On December 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "List of Industry Scope for Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)", expanding the issuance scope of infrastructure REITs to 15 industries, mainly adding commercial office facilities and urban renewal facilities. On December 31, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITs) Market" and the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds". The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges also revised and issued the business rules for publicly - offered REITs [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies, and "Qiushi" emphasized that real - estate policies should not adopt a piecemeal approach. The continuous introduction of real - estate policies further supports demand, and the pace of subsequent policy introduction may accelerate. Although the new construction of the real - estate chain still faces multiple pressures, the industry bottom is approaching as the base gradually decreases. Sales data (new + second - hand houses) remains the leading indicator for driving the sector's valuation [3][7]. - Anti - involution is the main line for cyclical products. In the new field, attention should be paid to electronic cloth, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace. For the cement and glass industries, the effective reduction of supply is the key point to observe in the next stage. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, and there is a possibility of a staged price increase. In the new field, the high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction, and the semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Anti - involution is the Main Line for Cyclical Products, and Attention is Paid to Electronic Cloth, Clean Rooms, and Commercial Aerospace in the New Field - **Real - estate Policy**: On December 24, 2025, Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing households to purchase houses, supporting the housing needs of multi - child families, optimizing personal housing credit policies, and adjusting the project approval method for real - estate development. On January 1, 2026, "Qiushi" proposed that policies should be sufficient at one time to avoid a game between the market and policies [3][7]. - **Cyclical Products**: For the cement and glass industries, with demand declining, the effective reduction of supply is crucial. Currently, the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the break - even line. The cold - repair reduction of glass production capacity in Q1 will determine the price recovery space of float glass from March to April. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, with stable demand growth and potential for staged price increases [4][8]. - **New Fields**: The high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction. Special electronic cloth has high demand elasticity and limited short - term supply, so its price is elastic. The increasing semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3.2 Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies The report provides the profit forecast, valuation, and investment ratings of 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including Punaite, China Jushi, and Conch Cement. Most of the investment ratings are "Buy" or "Increase", and all ratings remain unchanged [10]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index**: The construction index, building materials index, etc. had different changes. The construction index decreased by 1.4%, and the building materials index decreased by 0.6% [13]. - **Sub - sectors of Construction**: The building decoration II index increased by 9.33%, and the garden engineering index increased by 1.92%, while some sub - sectors had negative growth [15]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs**: The report provides the weekly, monthly, and annual - to - date price changes of 70 infrastructure public REITs. The average weekly decline was 0.47%, and the average annual - to - date increase was 9.29% [23][24][25]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real - estate Data**: It includes the cumulative year - on - year changes in real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas, land transaction data, real - estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth rates [28][37][47]. - **New Contracts of Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises**: The report shows the quarterly new contract amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It shows the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds from 2022 to 2025 [75][77]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Building Materials Data**: It includes the price trends, cost - profit differences, inventory, and other data of cement, float glass, photovoltaic glass, glass fiber, carbon fiber, magnesium sand, alumina, and other building materials [83][90][98]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, etc. [137][138]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes the price trends of acrylic acid, titanium dioxide, and the rental rate of high - altitude machines, asphalt average start - up rate, etc. [144][147].

Market Overview - A-shares continued to experience fluctuations with major indices showing recovery in volume, supported by a significant increase in weekly financing, which rose substantially compared to the previous period[2] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 363.41 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference held in December[2] - By December 31, the major broad-based indices showed a cautious outlook, with only the CSI 500 maintaining a bullish signal, while other indices shifted to a more cautious stance[2] Fixed Income Insights - In the period from December 29 to December 31, 2025, a total of 76 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 769.14 billion yuan, reflecting an 82.02% decrease from the previous week[33] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs experienced a decline, with returns ranking from high to low as follows: pure bonds > A-shares > convertible bonds > REITs > US stocks > crude oil > gold[31] Industry Highlights - Lithium prices reached approximately 112,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium[7] - The copper smelting capacity in China may face restrictions due to regulatory measures, while the demand for copper remains under pressure despite a tight supply outlook for 2026[7] Consumer and Economic Policies - The first batch of "old-for-new" subsidy funds for 2026 is expected to be lower than the previous year, with an estimated total scale of 250 billion yuan, potentially boosting retail sales growth by 1.2 percentage points[13] - The PMI returned to the expansion zone in December, supported by effective incremental policies and a favorable export environment, indicating a positive economic outlook for the end of the year[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but supply-demand tightness in 2026 is expected to support upward price movement [1] - The report highlights a significant drop in the operating rate of cable enterprises, reaching a six-year low in December 2025, which may suppress demand despite rising copper prices [1][3] - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - China's copper smelting capacity growth may be limited due to regulatory measures [1] - December 2025 saw a 7.5% year-on-year increase in China's electrolytic copper production, totaling 1.1781 million tons [3][64] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap [2][58] - **Demand**: - The operating rate of cable enterprises was reported at 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [3][76] - Air conditioning production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating potential demand growth [3][92] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 23.4% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7.4% [2][26] - As of December 31, 2025, global copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% from the previous week [2][26] Futures Market Summary - The active copper contract on SHFE saw a 15.9% decrease in open interest, indicating reduced trading activity [4][34] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 3.5%, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders [4][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies in the context of rising copper prices [4]