Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its two-wheeler segment, with projected sales of 2.6 million and 2.39 million units for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 77% and 100% [1][27]. - The gross margin is anticipated to continue rising, reaching 21.1% and 23.7% for 2024 and the first half of 2025, placing the company in a leading position within the industry [1][31]. Summary by Sections Two-Wheeler Business - The company focuses on providing a full lifecycle user experience for its core target audience, with a strong emphasis on smart technology as a key differentiator in its product offerings [2][42]. - The company has established a robust brand presence, with a significant portion of its sales coming from younger consumers, who represent 66% of its customer base under 35 years old [2][47]. - The company has successfully optimized its product structure and achieved economies of scale, leading to a continuous increase in gross margins [1][31]. Research and Development System - The company's R&D system is characterized by a high degree of coupling among its organizational structure, mechanisms, and talent, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [3][22]. - The dual-line R&D mechanism allows the company to balance short-term and long-term goals effectively, ensuring continuous innovation [3][22]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, with projections of 7,600 and 8,700 stores for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, and aims to reach 9,500 stores by the end of 2025 [3][26]. - Continuous upgrades to its Over-The-Air (OTA) services will enhance user experience throughout the product lifecycle [3][26]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 18, and 14 [4][5].

- The report utilizes a methodology from the industry rotation series to track the configuration signals and business indicators of various industries, including coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries [9] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Coal Industry Model - **Model Name**: Coal Industry Profit and Revenue Growth Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth of the coal industry based on the changes in price and production capacity factors [10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The long-term contract mechanism for thermal coal determines the sales price for the next month based on the price index of the last month - Monthly revenue and profit growth are estimated using the year-on-year changes in price factors and production capacity factors [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts that the coal industry profit for October 2025 will continue to decline year-on-year due to coal prices being lower than the same period last year [14] Livestock Farming Model - **Model Name**: Livestock Supply and Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the relationship between the number of breeding sows and the quarterly pig slaughter rate to estimate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months later [15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly pig slaughter and the number of breeding sows six months prior - Formula: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ [15] - Potential production capacity after 6 months is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Production Capacity (6 months later)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (current month)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 months prior)} $ [16] - Potential demand after 6 months is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (6 months later)} = \text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter (6 months prior)} $ [16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical experience shows that the slaughter coefficient method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles [16] Steel Industry Model - **Model Name**: Steel Industry Profit and Unit Profit Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and calculates unit profit for the steel industry by considering comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel [18] - **Model Construction Process**: - Comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators are used to predict monthly profit growth - Unit profit is calculated based on the difference between steel prices and costs [18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts that the steel industry profit for September 2025 will grow year-on-year, but the PMI rolling 12-month average remains flat, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint [23] Structural Materials and Building Engineering Model - **Model Name**: Glass and Cement Industry Profit Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries using price and cost indicators, and designs configuration signals based on profitability changes [25] - **Model Construction Process**: - Price and cost indicators are used to track profitability changes - Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes [25] - **Model Evaluation**: - Glass industry profit turned positive year-on-year in September 2025, leading to an upgrade to a positive configuration signal [30] - Cement industry profit remained flat year-on-year, and no positive signals were observed in new housing starts, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint [30] Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model - **Model Name**: Fuel Refining and Oil Services Profit and Configuration Signal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates industry profit growth and cracking spreads based on changes in refined fuel prices and crude oil prices, and designs configuration signals based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes [31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Refined fuel price changes and crude oil price changes are used to estimate industry profit growth and cracking spreads - Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes [31] - **Model Evaluation**: - The model predicts that the fuel refining industry profit for September 2025 will grow year-on-year due to lower inventory costs from recent low oil prices [31] - Observations show that oil prices in September 2025 were lower than the same period last year, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint for the fuel refining and oil services industries [37][38] Model Backtesting Results Coal Industry Model - **Profit Growth**: Predicted to continue declining year-on-year in October 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the same period last year [14] Livestock Farming Model - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: 4,038 million heads as of August 2025, slightly decreased month-on-month [17] - **Potential Production Capacity (26Q1)**: 19,361 million heads [17] - **Potential Demand (26Q1)**: 19,476 million heads [17] - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Slightly tight [17] Steel Industry Model - **Profit Growth**: Predicted to grow year-on-year in September 2025 [23] - **PMI Rolling Average**: Remained flat for 12 months, not exceeding the threshold [23] Structural Materials and Building Engineering Model - **Glass Industry Profitability**: Turned positive year-on-year in September 2025 [30] - **Cement Industry Profitability**: Remained flat year-on-year in September 2025 [30] - **Manufacturing PMI Rolling Average**: Remained flat for 12 months [30] - **Housing Sales Area**: Observed a year-on-year decline in August 2025 [30] Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model - **Fuel Refining Industry Profitability**: Predicted to grow year-on-year in September 2025 due to lower inventory costs [31] - **Oil Price**: Observed to be lower than the same period last year in September 2025 [37] - **New Drilling Activity**: No significant year-on-year changes observed in the US [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Tesla's global deliveries exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.4%, reaching 497,000 units. The Model 3 and Model Y standard versions were launched in North America with reduced starting prices [1]. - Xpeng's sales surpassed 40,000 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 94.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [1]. - NIO's deliveries also showed growth, with a year-on-year increase of 64.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0%, totaling 34,749 units in September [1]. Summary by Sections Tesla and New Forces Sales Tracking - Tesla's global delivery volume reached 497,000 units in Q3 2025, with Model 3 and Y sales contributing significantly [1]. - Xpeng delivered 41,581 units in September, while NIO and Li Auto reported deliveries of 34,749 and 33,951 units, respectively [1]. Order Trends and Delivery Cycles - Tesla's delivery cycles for the domestic Model 3 and Model Y have been extended, indicating high demand as the peak season approaches [2]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and NIO are also experiencing changes in delivery cycles, with some models seeing extended wait times [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as NIO, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Geely Automobile, as well as parts suppliers like Fuyao Glass and Top Group [3]. - It highlights the potential in the robotics and intelligent driving themes, suggesting a focus on companies involved in these sectors [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation Table - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are provided, with NIO, Xpeng, and SAIC Motor all receiving a "Buy" rating based on their projected performance [4].

2025 年 10 月 10 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金工】市场网下打新参与度仍在上升——打新市场跟踪月报 20251009 2025 年 9 月，共 11 只新股上市，其中主板 3 只、创业板 5 只、北交所 3 只，募集 金额共计 116.9 亿元，沪深两市新股发行规模环比增长。新股首日平均涨幅环比虽下 降但仍处较高水平：主板新股首日平均上涨 131.33%，创业板新股首日平均涨 251.9%。网下打新市场询价账户数量稳步上升，报价入围率略降。5 亿规模账户当月 打新收益率约为 A 类：0.15%，C 类 0.13%。 【债券】二级市场价格整体持续回调，资产类型有望得到大幅扩围——REITs 月度观 察（20250901-20250930） 截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，我国公募 REITs 产品数量达 75 只，合计发行规模达 1966.2 亿元（不含扩募）。2025 年 9 月 1 日-2025 年 9 月 30 日（以下简称"本月"），我 国已上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动下行的趋势。与其他主流大类资产 相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>美股>A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the controlled nuclear fusion industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The successful installation of the BEST Dewar base marks a significant milestone in the controlled nuclear fusion industry, signaling the commencement of a concentrated bidding period for various projects [1][2]. - The domestic fusion industry is progressing positively, with multiple projects advancing and new initiatives being announced, suggesting an upcoming phase of intensive bidding [3]. - The strategic value of fusion energy is highlighted by increasing electricity demands driven by AI and cloud computing, with major tech companies entering the fusion energy market [4]. Summary by Sections Project Developments - The BEST project has accelerated its timeline, with the main assembly starting two months ahead of schedule. Recent announcements indicate multiple tenders related to the project components [2][3]. - Other projects, such as "Xinghuo No. 1" and "China Circulation No. 4," are also progressing, with significant milestones achieved in environmental assessments and approvals [3]. Technological Advancements - Key technological breakthroughs have been reported, including the introduction of new superconducting materials and advancements in plasma control systems, which are crucial for the development of fusion energy [3][4]. Market Potential - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the controlled nuclear fusion industry, particularly in high-value segments such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industry advancements [4][5].

2025 年 10 月 9 日 二级市场价格整体持续回调，资产类型有望得到大幅扩围 总量研究 ——REITs 月度观察（20250901-20250930） 价格走势：2025 年 9 月 1 日-2025 年 9 月 30 日（以下简称"本月"），我国已 上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动下行的趋势。与其他主流大类资产 相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>美股>A 股>可转债>纯债>原油>REITs。 从项目属性来看，产权类 REITs 和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格走势于 本月呈现分化：产权类 REITs 有所上涨，而特许经营权类 REITs 有所下跌。从 底层资产类型来看，本月能源类 REITs 涨幅最大。本月，各底层资产类型的 REITs 产品涨跌互现（上市满一个月的新型基础设施类 REITs 已被纳入统计），其中， 回报率表现较好的底层资产类别为能源类、新型基础设施类和生态环保类。从单 只 REIT 层面来看，本月有 15 只 REITs 上涨，有 60 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面， 涨幅排名前三的分别是中金联东科创 REIT、红土创新盐田港 REIT 和广发成都高 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 产业债发行规模持续增长，信用利差保持走阔态势 ——信用债月度观察（2025.09） 要点 1、 信用债发行与到期 整体来看，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量信用债余额为 30.49 万亿元。2025 年 9 月 1 日-9 月 30 日，信用债共发行 12355.38 亿元，月环比增长 10.27%； 总偿还额 10956.49 亿元，净融资 1398.89 亿元。 城投债方面，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量城投债余额为 15.31 万亿元。2025 年 9 月的城投债发行量达 5039.05 亿元，环比增长 0.84%，同比增长 9.78%； 2025 年 9 月的城投主体净融资额为-105.01 亿元。 总量研究 产业债方面，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量产业债（狭义口径信用债中的非城 投债部分）余额为 15.18 万亿元。2025 年 9 月的产业债发行量达 7316.33 亿元， 环比增长 17.85%，同比增长 15.04%；2025年9月的产业主体净融资额为 1503.9 亿元。 2、信用债成交与利差 城投债方面，2025 年 9 月，我国城投 ...

- The report tracks the performance of new stock issuances in September 2025, noting that 11 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 11.689 billion yuan, a 185.58% increase from the previous month[1][12][13] - Among these, 8 stocks were issued offline, raising 10.628 billion yuan, a 314.65% increase from the previous month[1][12][13] - The number of accounts participating in initial inquiries has steadily increased, with 9194 accounts for the main board and 8306 for the dual innovation board (comprising the ChiNext and STAR Market)[2][24][25] - The average first-day increase for main board stocks was 131.33%, while for the dual innovation board, it was 251.91%[2][24][25] - The offline subscription rates for A and C class investors were 0.11‰ and 0.11‰ for the main board, and 0.22‰ and 0.20‰ for the dual innovation board, respectively[2][24][25] - The report provides a detailed calculation method for new stock issuance returns, using the formula: $$ \text{Single account stock issuance return} = \min(\text{account size}, \text{subscription limit}) \times \text{winning rate} \times \text{return rate} $$ $$ \text{A/B/C class investors' full return} = \text{subscription limit} \times \text{A/B/C class offline winning rate} \times \text{return rate} $$[41] - For September 2025, the return rates for a 5 billion yuan account were 0.026% for A class and 0.025% for C class on the main board, and 0.125% for A class and 0.103% for C class on the ChiNext board[42][43][44][45][46][47] - The cumulative return rates for 2025 were 1.285% for A class and 1.164% for C class accounts[48][49][50] - In a full subscription scenario, the returns for A class accounts were 133,000 yuan on the main board and 877,000 yuan on the ChiNext board, while for C class accounts, the returns were 127,000 yuan on the main board and 727,000 yuan on the ChiNext board[51][52][54] - The report also evaluates the performance of fund products and institutions in new stock issuances, listing the top-performing funds and institutions based on their participation and winning rates[57][58][60][61][62][64][65][66][67]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights three new variables driving the strong rise in gold prices during the National Day holiday in 2025, including concerns over U.S. fiscal credit due to government shutdown, political changes in Japan and France affecting currency credibility, and significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors [2]. - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery for two months, primarily due to the end of high-temperature disruptions, leading to increased production activities and rising indices for procurement, inventory, and employment [3]. - The report indicates that while some sectors show improvement, such as industrial profits and PPI narrowing declines, overall corporate earnings remain unstable, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [4]. Group 2: Industry Research - OpenAI's launch of Sora2 and its Apps SDK is expected to reshape the AI application landscape, emphasizing that AI enhances traditional SaaS rather than replacing it, which may alleviate market pessimism [8]. - In the real estate sector, the top 100 property companies reported a 21% month-on-month increase in sales for September, with notable performers including China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [9]. - The report on non-ferrous metals indicates that profitability in the processing and smelting sector is expected to recover, with a focus on high-end product innovation and resource utilization, particularly in copper and lithium [10]. Group 3: Company Research - The report on Jiufeng Energy discusses its investment in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, highlighting the company's integrated industry chain and strong growth potential, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.732 billion, 1.979 billion, and 2.245 billion yuan respectively [11]. - China National Petroleum Corporation is noted for its commitment to long-term growth and reform, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 of 166.1 billion, 171.2 billion, and 175.7 billion yuan, maintaining a buy rating for both A and H shares [12][13].

2025 年 10 月 8 日 总量研究 黄金周：黄金上涨的三个新变量 ——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十五篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响——《大 国博弈》系列第八十九篇（2025-09-25） 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》 ...