Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and auto parts industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global deliveries fell short of expectations, decreasing by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, primarily due to the cancellation of the IRA subsidy in the U.S. [2] - NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with deliveries increasing by 54.6% year-on-year and 32.7% quarter-on-quarter to 48,135 units [2]. - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to boost market performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on optimizing the growth structure of the automotive market [4]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries were 418,000 units, down 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter, with Model 3 and Model Y deliveries at 407,000 units, down 13.8% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - NIO's December deliveries reached 48,135 units, with a year-on-year increase of 54.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [2]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 44,246 units, down 24.4% year-on-year but up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Xpeng's deliveries were 37,508 units, reflecting a slight increase of 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. New Year Promotions - Tesla will continue its 0% financing policy for five years on Model 3 and Model Y, with specific delivery timelines set for February 2026 [3]. - NIO and other new energy vehicle manufacturers are offering various promotional incentives, including cash subsidies and extended delivery timelines for certain models [3]. Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy will extend the scope of eligible vehicles and adjust the subsidy method to a percentage of the new vehicle sales price, which is expected to positively impact the automotive market [4]. - The report recommends focusing on NIO and Xpeng for vehicle manufacturers, and on Fuyao Glass and other component manufacturers for investment opportunities [4].

2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 公募销售新规落地，理财配置如何演变？ ——《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 点评： 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 如何看待理财三季报的 3 个"异象"？——《中国 银行业理财市场季度报告（2025 年三季度）》点 评（2025-10-24） 公募销售新规对银行理财影响几何？——《公开募 集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见 稿）》点评（2025-9-9） 2Q 平稳收官，下半年还有哪些关注点？——《中 国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025 年上）》点评 （2025-7-27） 1、公募销售新规正式落地，赎回费、过渡期等政策安排较《征求意见稿》有调优 震荡中前行——《中国银行业理财市场季度报告 （2025 年一季度）》点评 2025-4-24 要点 事件： 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 510-520 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [1] - The company anticipates significant growth in mineral production for 2025, with gold production expected to increase by 23% and copper production by 2% [2] - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold and copper prices due to a weakening US dollar and supply-demand dynamics, supporting the company's profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 475-485 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 50%-53% [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1] Production Outlook - The company projects mineral production for 2026 to grow by 17% for gold, 10% for copper, 19% for silver, and 380% for lithium carbonate [2] - The planned production for 2026 includes 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver [2] Price Trends - The average spot price of gold in London from October 1, 2025, to December 29, 2025, is expected to be 4,164 USD/ounce, a 56% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19% increase from Q3 2025 [2] - The average price of copper on the LME is projected to be 11,048 USD/ton, marking a 19% increase from Q4 2024 and a 12% increase from Q3 2025 [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecast based on rising gold and copper prices, estimating net profits of 515.1 billion yuan, 755.0 billion yuan, and 815.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 8% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agrochemical products industry. 2. Core Viewpoints The agrochemical products industry has stable demand supported by the "stable grain supply" policy and the growth of fertilizer and pesticide exports. The supply - side ecosystem is expected to optimize under the "anti - involution" policy, and the industry's profitability is expected to increase. Policy support for food security has strengthened the demand for agrochemical products, and multi - dimensional factors such as domestic consumption and exports have further boosted the demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side reform in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors is promoting industry concentration and high - quality development [1][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agrochemical Products Industry Overview - **Policy Support and Demand Foundation**: The government has continuously strengthened food security policies. In 2025, the national grain output reached 14297.5 billion jin, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, providing core support for agrochemical product demand. Domestic food consumption is rigid, and the demand for agrochemical products is driven by multiple factors such as domestic food, feed consumption, and exports. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, and the export volume of pesticides also increased significantly [12][13]. - **Supply - side Optimization**: The government and the industry are jointly promoting "anti - involution." The Chinese Pesticide Industry Association launched a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action, and the Chinese Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline. As backward production capacity exits and new capacity is limited, the industry ecosystem is expected to improve [14]. 3.2 Fertilizer Industry - **Industry Chain and Supply - side Reform**: The fertilizer industry includes phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. In recent years, the supply - side reform has advanced, with an increase in fertilizer production but a decrease in application and an improvement in utilization efficiency. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers, while the import volume decreased by 1.22% year - on - year [15][20]. - **Phosphate Fertilizer Sub - sector**: The supply of phosphate fertilizers is restricted by phosphate rock resources. In 2025, from January to November, the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate decreased year - on - year. The price of phosphate fertilizers has been rising due to the tight balance of phosphate rock supply and demand and strict policies on new phosphate ammonium capacity [32][54]. 3.3 Pesticide Industry - **Industry Structure and Policy - driven Supply Improvement**: Pesticides are used for pest control and plant growth regulation. China is the world's largest producer of pesticide technicals, but there is a problem of over - capacity. In 2025, the Chinese Pesticide Industry Association proposed a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action plan, and new policies such as the revised "Pesticide Registration Management Method" will optimize the industry's competition pattern [61][62]. - **Production, Demand, and Price Trends**: In 2025, from January to November, the growth rate of China's pesticide technical production decreased, but the export volume increased. The global demand for pesticides is rigid, and pesticide prices are expected to recover as over - capacity is alleviated [63][71]. - **Glyphosate Sub - sector**: Glyphosate is the most widely used single - product pesticide globally. Policy restricts new capacity, and the inventory has been decreasing since 2025. The growth of global transgenic crop planting area drives the demand and export of glyphosate, and the price is expected to rise, and the industry's prosperity is expected to increase [75][90]. 3.4 Agrochemical Products Industry Convertible Bonds Basic Situation - **General Information**: As of December 26, 2025, the outstanding balance of convertible bonds in the agrochemical products industry totaled 9.767 billion yuan, accounting for 25.27% of the convertible bond balance in the basic chemical industry. The un - converted ratio of all convertible bonds is over 90%, and the credit ratings range from AA - to AA + [91][94]. - **Trading and Valuation**: The trading volume of Hebang Convertible Bonds is the highest, with an annual trading volume exceeding 24 billion yuan. Since 2025, both the prices of agrochemical convertible bonds and their underlying stocks have risen, and the price increase of underlying stocks is generally stronger than that of convertible bonds. All agrochemical convertible bonds are balanced - type, with Yangfeng Convertible Bonds having a relatively high conversion premium rate of over 40% [95][99]. - **Financial Performance**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the profitability of most issuers of agrochemical convertible bonds has recovered. The operating net cash flow of most issuers has shown continuous inflow or improvement, and the asset - liability ratio at the end of Q3 in 2025 is generally controllable [3][103]. 3.5 Individual Bond Situations - **Xingfa Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Xingfa Group, is a leading enterprise in the phosphate chemical industry, with advantages in phosphate rock mining rights and power costs. It has a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, and its new energy materials business is advancing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [108][110]. - **Suli Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Suli Co., Ltd., is engaged in pesticides, flame retardants, and other fine chemical products. In 2025, the demand in the agrochemical market recovered, and the quantity and price of its products such as chlorothalonil and decabromodiphenylethane increased, driving the growth of the company's performance [111][112]. - **Fengshan Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Fengshan Group, is involved in pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. In 2025, the company's net profit turned from loss to profit in the first three quarters, and its operating performance improved [113][115]. - **Hebang Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Hebang Biotech, is engaged in mining, chemicals, photovoltaic glass, etc. The company has strengthened its mining layout, and the phosphate rock business has been prosperous. Since the second quarter of 2025, the quantity and price of glyphosate have increased [116][117]. - **Yangfeng Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, New Yangfeng, is a leading enterprise in phosphate compound fertilizers. It has a complete industrial chain layout, and its new fertilizer business is developing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [118][119].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and exceeding the market expectation of 49.6%[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.2%, an increase from the previous value of 49.5%[2] Group 2: Economic Drivers - The recovery in PMI indicates effective implementation of incremental policies in Q4, leading to an expansion in investment activities, particularly in the construction sector[4] - A temporary easing of the US-China trade conflict has contributed to a positive trend in exports[4] - Year-end inventory preparations by enterprises have led to a rebound in production and inventory indices[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - In December, the production index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, and the new orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%[5] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also entered the expansion zone[14] - Large enterprises saw a PMI increase of 1.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises experienced a decline of 0.5 percentage points to 48.6%[6] Group 4: Trade and Pricing - The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating sustained export demand[19] - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%[23] Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating accelerated expansion in construction activities[29] - The new orders index for construction rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, with a business expectation index of 57.4%[29]

Group 1 - The insurance sector is expected to deepen its transformation and maintain a recovery trend in fundamentals through 2026 [4][7] - In 2025, the insurance sector outperformed the market with a cumulative increase of 27.0%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 8.8 percentage points, driven by strong growth in new business value (NBV) and improved investment returns [5][10] - The life insurance segment is seeing a stabilization in agent workforce and positive growth in new policies, supported by bank insurance and improved NBV margins [5][20] Group 2 - The property insurance segment is experiencing a slowdown in premium growth but is optimizing its business structure, with a focus on non-auto insurance [22] - The investment side of the insurance companies is benefiting from a rising equity market, with a projected increase in total investment returns and net profits expected to rise by 33.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters [5][7] - The high savings preference among residents and the reduction in bank deposit rates are expected to make participating insurance products with a guaranteed return of 1.75% more competitive in the market [7][8] Group 3 - The life insurance sector is projected to see continued growth in new business value, driven by the popularity of participating insurance products and the effective management of costs through the "reporting and operation integration" strategy [5][20] - The property insurance sector is expected to maintain its favorable conditions, with the "reporting and operation integration" policy further optimizing the combined ratio (COR) [5][22] - Investment strategies focusing on high dividend yields are anticipated to provide a safety net for net investment income, contributing to profit stability [7][8]

公司研究 心律管理业务重组合并，母公司亏损如期收窄中 2025 年 12 月 31 日 ——微创医疗（0853.HK）跟踪点评 要点 事件：公司近期公告 1）根据微创医疗集团会计政策其无法控制微创脑科学但仍 对其保持重大影响力，故终止合并微创脑科学，构成须予披露交易。2）微创心 通召开股东大会，审议通过并购微创心律管理有限公司的重大资产重组议案。此 次并购将推动微创医疗旗下结构性心脏病与心律管理两大核心业务板块的深度 整合。 点评： 治理结构改善注入新动能，出海业务成为核心增长引擎。公司治理层面，上实资 本旗下基金成为公司重要战略股东，有望在治理和业务发展方面注入新动能。公 司近期完成心律管理与结构性心脏病业务的重组，旨在打造综合心脏病平台，新 公司将融合微创心律管理的 AI 诊断及算法技术，与微创心通在结构性心脏病介 入治疗、输送系统及生物材料方面的技术积累，打造"结构性心脏病+心律管理 +心衰管理"一体化平台。公司亦公告终止合并微创脑科学，我们认为治理改善 持续推进中。同时，公司积极搭建全球通商业化平台，助力各业务板块产品出海， 25H1 出海业务收入已达 5,980 万美元，同比增长 57.3%，有效对 ...

Group 1: Market Strategy - The report highlights a focus on the spring market, presenting a monthly stock selection for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for January 2026, including companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and Alibaba [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has accelerated significantly, becoming a crucial support for liquidity and pricing in the Hong Kong stock market, transitioning from sentiment-driven to fundamental-based long-term allocation [2] - The industry allocation has evolved from a focus on finance and real estate to a diversified structure of "finance + technology + consumption" [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The report discusses the Japanese banking crisis of the 1990s, emphasizing the delayed and nonlinear evolution of risks, leading to a wave of institutional bankruptcies [3] - Post-crisis reforms included multiple rounds of capital injections and mergers to clear risks and enhance capital and liquidity management [3] Group 4: Digital Currency Developments - The digital RMB is entering a deposit currency era, with an upgraded account system expected to drive significant expansion in its ecosystem and application scenarios [4] - Three main investment lines are suggested: companies focusing on digital currency terminal applications, IT service providers for financial institutions, and hardware/security companies [4] Group 5: Company-Specific Research - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, enhancing its potassium and lithium carbonate production capacity [6] - The acquisition aims to resolve competition issues with the controlling shareholder and leverage Minmetals' advanced lithium extraction technology [6] - The projected net profits for Salt Lake Co. from 2025 to 2027 are 6.149 billion, 6.648 billion, and 7.337 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 6: Optical Market Expansion - Akerley has successfully validated its COC product for optical lens applications, leading to bulk orders and anticipated rapid growth in sales [7] - Projected net profits for Akerley from 2025 to 2027 are 0.07 billion, 0.57 billion, and 1.43 billion yuan, with a maintained "increase" rating [7] Group 7: Oil and Gas Sector Outlook - China National Petroleum Corporation's major shareholder has begun increasing its stake, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value [8] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 166.1 billion, 171.2 billion, and 175.7 billion yuan, with a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [8] Group 8: Semiconductor Industry Growth - Zhaoyi Innovation is positioned to benefit from an upturn in the storage cycle, with a diversified product layout expected to unlock additional growth [9] - Revised net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 1.760 billion, 2.551 billion, and 2.911 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [9] Group 9: Testing Equipment Market - Changchuan Technology is expanding into the high-end market with a complete testing equipment platform, anticipating growth in orders [10] - Revised net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 1.068 billion, 1.418 billion, and 1.722 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company benefits from an upward storage cycle driven by AI, leading to continuous price increases in storage products. The demand for high-performance inference services is growing, and in the context of a supply-demand imbalance for traditional large-capacity HDDs, CSPs are shifting storage demand towards QLC Enterprise SSDs. The overall supply-demand situation has resulted in price increases for various NAND Flash products. The company is expected to hold the largest market share in NOR Flash and SLC NAND Flash products in mainland China in 2024, with a second-largest share in niche DRAM, benefiting from the storage industry cycle [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.083 billion yuan, up 30.18% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 38.59%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 1.45 percentage points to 16.17% [3][4]. Product Line Expansion - The company continues to enrich its product line, launching a dual-voltage SPI NOR Flash product specifically designed for 1.2V SoC applications, applicable in emerging fields such as smart wearables, healthcare, IoT, data centers, and edge AI. The company is one of the first to achieve mass production of 45nm node SPI NOR Flash. In the first half of 2025, the company introduced high-speed QSPI NAND Flash products with faster read speeds and bad block management features, applicable in industrial and IoT scenarios [3][4]. Niche DRAM Revenue Growth - The company's niche DRAM products are widely used in network communications, televisions, set-top boxes, smart homes, and industrial applications. In the first half of 2025, the promotion of the 8Gb DDR4 product was successful, leading to steady revenue growth, while LPDDR4 products began to contribute to revenue. With major overseas manufacturers exiting the niche DRAM market, supply is tight, resulting in increased revenue from niche DRAM products [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic niche storage market, benefiting from the upward storage cycle. The diversified product layout is expected to further open up incremental space. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.760 billion yuan and 2.551 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 9% and 22%. A new forecast for 2027 net profit is set at 2.911 billion yuan [4].

- Southbound funds have expanded significantly, with cumulative net inflows exceeding HKD 50,797 billion since the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the long-term willingness of domestic investors to allocate cross-border assets[12][17][19] - As of November 2025, Southbound funds' stockholding value reached HKD 6.27 trillion, accounting for 13.05% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks, marking a nearly ninefold increase from the initial level of 1.47% at the end of 2016[12][15][16] - Southbound funds' trading volume has surged, with its share of Hong Kong stock market transactions exceeding 50%, indicating its growing influence in market pricing[17][19][54] - The behavior of Southbound funds has shifted from "sentiment overflow" to "value-driven," becoming a key force in reshaping the valuation system of Hong Kong stocks[22][25][26] - Southbound funds' industry allocation has evolved from a "finance and real estate-dominated" structure to a diversified model centered on "finance + technology + consumption," supplemented by healthcare and utilities[35][36][37] - Secondary industry allocation reveals Southbound funds' preference for "factorized styles," transitioning from low valuation sectors to growth-oriented industries like technology and new consumption, and later incorporating defensive and resource factors[41][42][43] - Southbound funds have formed a "value-growth-defense" multi-factor combination, reflecting its maturity as a long-term allocation force[49][50][52] - In 2025, Southbound funds' net inflows reached HKD 13,819.1 billion, with daily average trading volume accounting for 47.97% of the Hong Kong stock market's daily average transactions[53][54][56] - Core industries such as non-essential consumption and finance remain the main allocation directions, while technology, healthcare, and energy sectors serve as tactical adjustments[63][65][66] - Southbound funds' stockholding concentration has slightly decreased, with the top 10 holdings accounting for 41.4% and the top 50 holdings accounting for 67.5%, indicating a trend toward internal rebalancing within core assets[73][74][90] - Key stocks with significant net inflows in 2025 include Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and major financial stocks like China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank[80][81][92]