Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.5, compared to the current price of HKD 10.54 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Chi Zi Cheng Technology, is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa [1][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 3.181 billion, and a net profit of RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chi Zi Cheng Technology has transitioned from a tool-based application to a diversified social product matrix, focusing on global social entertainment [15][16]. - The company has established a strong localized operational team with around 800 members across more than 20 countries, implementing a "China-led, local-driven" collaborative model [2][19]. Social Business Strategy - The company's core social business, which is expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, employs a "bush" product matrix strategy, including products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2][35]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions, such as Blue City Brothers, to enhance its presence in the diverse social market, with Blue City's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million [2][3]. Innovative Business Growth - The company is developing a second growth curve through innovative businesses, including premium mobile games and social e-commerce, with the flagship game "Alice's Dream: MergeGames" showing over 60% revenue growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The social e-commerce segment is expanding, with acquisitions enhancing user demographics and engagement [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 69.0 billion, 84.1 billion, and 97.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 9.5 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong localization strategy and successful "product + country" replication strategy, positioning it well in emerging social entertainment markets [4][5].

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 50,000 and recovering from a loss of 105,000 jobs in October[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%[15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.6%[15] Economic Insights - The rise in unemployment is attributed to a "technical" disruption from the government shutdown, which temporarily inflated the unemployment figures due to forced leave of federal employees[2] - Private sector employment remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025[2] - Retail data for October showed stability, with core retail sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is stabilizing[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the unexpected rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 44.1% in April and 34.5% in July, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January 2026 stands at 73.4%[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in September, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among younger demographics[4] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 228,000 in November, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on temporary unemployment[4] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October[42] - Year-on-year wage growth also decreased to 3.5%, compared to 3.7% in October, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures[42]

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating for the first time [6][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic player in cardiac electrophysiology, providing a comprehensive three-dimensional cardiac electrophysiology solution, with strong technical barriers and a complete product matrix [4][14]. - The domestic electrophysiology market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand for innovative technologies, with the company positioned to capture significant market share [2][3]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2010, focuses on innovative medical devices for electrophysiology intervention and ablation therapy, becoming the first domestic manufacturer to offer a complete solution in this field [21]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with no single shareholder holding more than 10%, ensuring balanced governance [24][27]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 413 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.51%, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, with a staggering growth of 815.36% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.13, 0.18, and 0.26 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 187, 131, and 88 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The domestic electrophysiology market is expected to grow significantly, with the market share of foreign brands decreasing from 93% in 2020 to 72% in 2024, indicating a strong trend towards domestic substitution [2][3]. - The company has successfully participated in multiple provincial procurement programs, demonstrating its clinical recognition and market competitiveness [2][3]. Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product line covering two-dimensional and three-dimensional systems, with several products filling domestic gaps and matching foreign competitors in performance [3][4]. - The company is actively developing new products in emerging fields such as pulse ablation and renal artery treatment, enhancing its growth potential [3][12]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue from catheter products is expected to grow at rates of 16.00%, 28.00%, and 27.00% from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased market penetration and procurement benefits [10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to stabilize above 60% starting in 2025, following the launch of high-margin new products [11].

Macro Insights - The internal economic momentum is weakening, and the policy window is gradually approaching, with a focus on stabilizing consumption and investment through counter-cyclical policies [2] - The "pig cycle" investment paradigm is shifting, with supply reduction in the pig industry driven by profit losses and policy adjustments, but the elasticity of pig prices is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles [3] - The healthcare negotiations in the U.S. are becoming a political tool, with significant implications for the capital markets, as budget agreements remain unresolved [4] Bond Market Analysis - Major economic indicators have further declined, with industrial production growth slowing year-on-year, while fixed asset investment shows an expanding decline [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing a relatively loose funding environment, and investors are advised to adopt a gradually optimistic outlook, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [6][5] Real Estate Sector - In the real estate market, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 735,000 units, down 14.8%, with significant declines in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [7] - The second-hand housing market showed a slight increase in transactions, with a total of 725,000 units sold, indicating a mixed performance across major cities [7] Company Research - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is set to acquire a range of trace element injection assets, which will enhance its product structure and leverage synergies, with a favorable market outlook for these products [9] - The acquisition is expected to significantly boost the company's revenue and profit, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 655 million, 836 million, and 1.063 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 14, and 11 times [9]

Consumption - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, below the expected 2.9%, marking the lowest point since February 2023[3] - The decline in consumption is attributed to last year's "trade-in" policy raising the base, and a decrease in service consumption after the long holiday[2] - The retail sales of five categories involved in the "trade-in" policy saw a decline, with home appliances and furniture experiencing negative year-on-year growth[4] Investment - From January to November 2025, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, worse than the expected decrease of 2.2%[5] - In November, the year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment was -11.1%, with manufacturing investment improving slightly to -4.4%[13] - Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with narrow and broad infrastructure showing year-on-year decreases of -9.7% and -12.0%, respectively[19] Real Estate - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of national commodity housing sales fell to -26.1%, down from -25.1% in October[23] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -31.4% in November, reaching a low level[23] - The two-year compound growth rate for commodity housing sales area improved slightly, from -11.1% in October to -7.9% in November[23]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 "猪周期"投资的新范式 ——《光大投资时钟》第二十七篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05- 12） 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 关税互搏，中美谁的经济韧性更强？—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十二（2025-04- 09） 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？—— 《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 （2025-10-21） 黄金周：黄金上涨的三个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical (300181.SZ) with a current price of 17.18 yuan [1]. Core Views - The acquisition of the future pharmaceutical asset group is expected to enhance Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's performance by introducing new product lines and leveraging complementary advantages [5][8]. - The market for multi-trace element injection solutions is projected to grow, with significant demand in pediatric and adult nutrition support [6][7]. - The acquisition is valued at approximately 356 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 6 times, indicating a favorable cost-benefit ratio [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical has a total share capital of 701 million shares and a market capitalization of 12.05 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has fluctuated between a low of 13.39 yuan and a high of 21.07 yuan over the past year [1]. Recent Developments - The company recently won a legal case against East China Pharmaceutical, which strengthens its market position [4]. - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical signed an agreement to acquire a multi-trace element injection asset group for 35.6 million yuan, which includes both marketed and research products [4][5]. Financial Performance - The asset group is expected to generate a net profit of approximately 60 million yuan in 2025, enhancing the company's profitability [7]. - The projected revenue for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is expected to grow from 1.94 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.29 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.45% [9][13]. Market Potential - The overall market for multi-trace element injections is anticipated to reach around 1.8 billion yuan in 2024, with stable growth rates for existing products [6]. - The demand for these products is expected to continue rising, particularly in pediatric and adult critical care settings [6][11]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 655 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health [8][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 14.03% in 2023 to 28.18% by 2027, reflecting improved profitability [15].

分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 "猪周期"投资的新范式 ——《光大投资时钟》第二十七篇 作者 相关研报 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？—— 《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 （2025-10-21） 黄金周：黄金上涨的三个新变量——《光大 投资时钟》系列报告第二十五篇（2025- 10-08） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响——《大 国博弈》系列第八十九篇（2025-09-25） 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05- 12） 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 基于堆叠 LSTM 模型的十年期国债收益率预测 ——量化学习笔记之一 要点 1、 金融时序预测和神经网络模型 针对金融时间序列的预测，经历了从传统计量模型、到传统机器学习模型、再到 深度学习模型的三个主要发展阶段。深度学习模型能够较好适应金融时间序列的 非平稳、非线性、高噪声和长记忆性等复杂特征，是当前主流的金融时序预测方 法之一。 模型设计优化。在现有模型的基础上，针对时间窗口、数据处理、网络架构和训 练策略等相关设计进行调整优化。 输入多维度变量。将输入变量从单一的收益率序列扩展至宏观、市场、情绪等多 维度变量，使模型预测更加符合经济逻辑，捕捉信息更加全面。 构建混合模型。将 LSTM 模型与传统计量模型或其他机器学习模型相结合，构建 如 ARIMAX-LSTM、CNN-LSTM-ATT 等混合模型，能够发挥不同模型优势，弥补 单一 LSTM 模型缺陷，提升预测精度。 引入滚动回测机制。采用滚动时间窗口回测机制，固定样本时间窗口并随时间推 移实现模型的动态更新和持续预测，使模型能更好适应市场变化，提升其稳健性。 4、 风险提示 模型结构简单导致当前预测误差较大； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main economic indicators in November 2025 further declined, with the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods all showing a downward trend. However, the month - on - month growth rate of industrial added value increased, and the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment narrowed. [1][2] - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market. The expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. In the long term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but attention should be paid to the structure. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On December 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for November 2025, including the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size of 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to November of 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November of 1.3%. [1][6][9] Comment Scale - above industrial production: year - on - year growth rate decreased but month - on - month growth rate increased - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from October. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.44%, an increase from October. [2][6] - Among the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rate of the mining industry increased, while those of the manufacturing industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased. [2][6] January - November fixed - asset investment: cumulative year - on - year decline widened, but the month - on - month decline in November narrowed - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, with the decline widening. The month - on - month growth rate in November was - 1.03%, with the decline narrowing. [2][13] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment from January to November all decreased, and the year - on - year growth rates of the three sub - items in November were all weak. [17] Total retail sales of consumer goods: year - on - year growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the seasonal average - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, a decrease from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%, weaker than the seasonal average and lower than the same - period levels in 2023 and 2024. [2][18] - The year - on - year growth rates of different types of consumer goods all decreased in November compared with the previous month. [2][18] Bond Market Views Interest - rate bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation. The short - end yield has fluctuated little and declined steadily, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on an upward trend, and the Treasury bond yield curve has steepened significantly. [3][22] - With the current loose capital situation and the weak fundamental trend, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market, and the expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. [3][22] Convertible bonds - Since the beginning of 2025 (as of December 12), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 16.5%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index was + 21.8%. The performance of the convertible bond market was weaker than that of the equity market. [3][31] - Against the background of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market is stronger than the supply and difficult to change, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long term, and more attention should be paid to the structure. [3][31]