Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: New Stock Issuance Model - **Construction Idea**: The model aims to track the performance of newly issued stocks in various market segments, including the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market[1][12][22]. - **Construction Process**: - Collect data on the number of new stocks issued, the amount of funds raised, and the first-day price performance. - Calculate the average first-day price increase for each market segment. - Formula: $ \text{Single Account Stock Return} = \min(\text{Account Size}, \text{Subscription Limit}) \times \text{Winning Rate} \times \text{Return Rate} $ $ \text{A/B/C Class Investors Full Return} = \text{Subscription Limit} \times \text{A/B/C Class Offline Winning Rate} \times \text{Return Rate} $ - Parameters: - Winning Rate: Actual winning rate of offline new stock issuance. - Return Rate: For new stocks listed on the STAR Market and ChiNext, and under the comprehensive registration system on the main board, the return rate is the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price. For non-registration system main board stocks, the return rate is the average transaction price on the opening day relative to the issue price[40][41][42]. - **Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of the performance of new stock issuances across different market segments, helping investors understand the potential returns from participating in new stock offerings[1][12][22]. Model Backtesting Results New Stock Issuance Model - **Main Board**: - A Class: Monthly return rate 0.159%, cumulative return 1.000%[41][42][47] - C Class: Monthly return rate 0.141%, cumulative return 0.908%[41][42][47] - **ChiNext**: - A Class: Monthly return rate 0.035%, cumulative return 1.128%[41][45][47] - C Class: Monthly return rate 0.034%, cumulative return 0.989%[41][45][47] - **STAR Market**: - A Class: Monthly return rate 0.064%, cumulative return 0.547%[41][46][47] - C Class: Monthly return rate 0.063%, cumulative return 0.527%[41][46][47] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: New Stock Performance Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor aims to measure the performance of new stocks on their first day of trading, providing insights into the potential returns from participating in new stock offerings[1][12][22]. - **Construction Process**: - Collect data on the first-day price performance of new stocks. - Calculate the average first-day price increase for each market segment. - Formula: $ \text{First-Day Price Increase} = \frac{\text{First-Day Closing Price} - \text{Issue Price}}{\text{Issue Price}} \times 100\% $ - Parameters: - First-Day Closing Price: The closing price of the stock on its first day of trading. - Issue Price: The price at which the stock was issued[1][12][22]. - **Evaluation**: This factor provides a clear measure of the initial performance of new stocks, helping investors gauge the potential returns from participating in new stock offerings[1][12][22]. Factor Backtesting Results New Stock Performance Factor - **Main Board**: - Average first-day price increase: 276.29%[22][23] - **ChiNext**: - Average first-day price increase: 356.00%[22][23] - **STAR Market**: - Average first-day price increase: 174.56%[22][23] Fund Product Performance Fund Product Performance in New Stock Offerings - **Construction Idea**: Measure the participation and success rate of fund products in new stock offerings, and calculate their estimated returns based on their participation and winning rates[57][58][59]. - **Construction Process**: - Collect data on the participation and winning rates of fund products in new stock offerings. - Calculate the estimated returns based on the latest fund quarterly report. - Formula: $ \text{Participation Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of New Stocks Quoted}}{\text{Total Number of New Stocks Issued}} $ $ \text{Winning Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Valid Quotes}}{\text{Number of New Stocks Quoted}} $ - Parameters: - Participation Rate: The rate at which the fund product participates in new stock offerings. - Winning Rate: The rate at which the fund product's quotes are accepted[57][58][59]. - **Evaluation**: This method provides a detailed view of the performance of fund products in new stock offerings, helping investors understand the potential returns from participating in new stock offerings through fund products[57][58][59]. Fund Product Backtesting Results Fund Product Performance - **Top Performing Funds**: - Middle European Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index A: Estimated return rate 0.337%[57][58][59] - ICBC Quality Selection A: Estimated return rate 0.33%[57][58][59] - Huatai-PineBridge Innovation Power: Estimated return rate 0.33%[57][58][59] Institutional Performance Institutional Performance in New Stock Offerings - **Construction Idea**: Measure the participation and success rate of institutions in new stock offerings, and calculate their estimated returns based on their participation and winning rates[60][61][62]. - **Construction Process**: - Collect data on the participation and winning rates of institutions in new stock offerings. - Calculate the estimated returns based on the latest institutional quarterly report. - Formula: $ \text{Participation Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of New Stocks Quoted}}{\text{Total Number of New Stocks Issued}} $ $ \text{Winning Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Valid Quotes}}{\text{Number of New Stocks Quoted}} $ - Parameters: - Participation Rate: The rate at which the institution participates in new stock offerings. - Winning Rate: The rate at which the institution's quotes are accepted[60][61][62]. - **Evaluation**: This method provides a detailed view of the performance of institutions in new stock offerings, helping investors understand the potential returns from participating in new stock offerings through institutional products[60][61][62]. Institutional Backtesting Results Institutional Performance - **Top Performing Institutions**: - GF Fund: Estimated return rate 1.74 billion[60][61][62] - China Asset Management: Estimated return rate 1.51 billion[60][61][62] - E Fund Management: Estimated return rate 1.33 billion[60][61][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's FY3Q25 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in iPhone, Mac, and services, marking the strongest quarterly revenue growth since FY1Q22 [1][5] - The guidance for FY4Q25 indicates mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth, surpassing market expectations, despite anticipated tariff-related cost increases [5][10] - The company continues to face pressure from tariffs and potential regulatory risks, particularly concerning its agreement with Google [10] Revenue Performance - FY3Q25 revenue reached $94.04 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $89.3 billion [1][6] - The iPhone segment generated $44.58 billion in revenue, a 13% year-over-year increase, significantly above expectations [6] - The Mac business saw revenue growth of 14.8% year-over-year, reaching $8.05 billion, driven by new product launches [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY3Q25 was 46.5%, at the upper end of the previous guidance range, with net profit of $23.43 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase [1][5] - The company reported a basic EPS of $1.57, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.43 [1] Segment Analysis - The services segment achieved revenue of $27.42 billion, a 13.3% year-over-year increase, maintaining a high gross margin of 75.6% [9] - Wearable devices and other products generated $7.4 billion in revenue, down 8.6% year-over-year, falling short of market expectations [8] - iPad revenue declined to $6.58 billion, an 8.1% year-over-year decrease, indicating weak demand [7] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a gross margin between 46% and 47% in the upcoming quarter, despite the anticipated $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs [5] - The report projects GAAP net profits for FY2025-2027 to be $110.4 billion, $112.8 billion, and $116.9 billion respectively, reflecting significant upward revisions [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is actively progressing with its share buyback program, which is expected to enhance shareholder value and reduce registered capital [2] - Sales rankings have improved, with the company achieving sales amounts of CNY 2,193.0 billion and CNY 350.7 billion for 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, placing it 5th in the China real estate sales ranking [2] - The company has successfully reduced its financing costs, with a comprehensive funding cost of 2.99% as of the end of 2024, maintaining an industry-leading level [3] Summary by Sections Share Buyback Progress - As of July 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 44,804,006 shares, accounting for 0.494% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately CNY 430.27 million [1][2] Sales Performance - The company ranked 4th in the China real estate sales ranking for the first seven months of 2025, with a total sales amount of approximately CNY 1,045.2 billion, showing a narrowing decline of 10.5% year-on-year [2] - The monthly sales in July 2025 were approximately CNY 156.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of only 1.5%, indicating a potential recovery in sales performance [2] Financing Cost Reduction - The company issued CNY 800 million of 3-year fixed-rate bonds at a coupon rate of 1.70%, with a subscription multiple of 4.5625 times, demonstrating strong market confidence in its financial strategy [3] - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026 to CNY 45.1 billion and CNY 48.1 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of CNY 42.1 billion and CNY 44.7 billion [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January to August 1, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index rose by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market. After five consecutive weeks of gains, the convertible bonds adjusted slightly this week. Fundamental trends and anti-involution policies are important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. Investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds in areas such as boosting domestic demand and anti-involution [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by -1.4% (last week's increase was +2.1%), and the CSI All-Share Index changed by -1.1% (last week's increase was +2.2%). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market [1] - By rating, high-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) fell by -2.03%, -0.29%, and -0.93% respectively this week, with high-rated bonds having the largest decline. By convertible bond scale, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) fell by -1.66%, -0.85%, and -0.83% respectively this week, with large-scale convertible bonds having the largest decline. By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan) rose slightly by +0.38% this week, while other types of parity bonds had varying degrees of decline [2] - By industry, the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of gains mainly came from machinery and equipment (6), pharmaceutical biology (4), and electronics (4); the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of losses mainly came from chemicals (5), non-ferrous metals (4), etc. [2] 2. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of August 1, 2025, there were 463 outstanding convertible bonds (468 at the close of last week), with a balance of 636.614 billion yuan (637.942 billion yuan at the close of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 127.7 yuan (128.87 yuan last week), with a quantile of 97.7%; the average convertible bond parity was 100.65 yuan (101.20 yuan last week), with a quantile of 89.3%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 27.4% (27.3% last week), with a quantile of 55.4%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 27.6% (29.0% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.0%) [3] 3. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by -1.4%. After five consecutive weeks of gains, the convertible bonds adjusted slightly this week; the CSI All-Share Index changed by -1.1%. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +10.3%, and the CSI All-Share Index has risen by +8.6%. The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market. Looking ahead, fundamental trends and anti-involution policies are still important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. Investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds in areas such as boosting domestic demand and anti-involution [4] 4. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of gains this week included Qizheng Convertible Bond, Bo 25 Convertible Bond, Dongjie Convertible Bond, etc. For example, Qizheng Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 45.60% and an underlying stock increase of 39.99% [24]

2025 年 8 月 1 日 公司研究 亚马逊 25Q3 营收指引超预期，AWS 营业利润率承压 ——亚马逊（AMZN.O）2025 年二季报业绩点评 25Q2 电商部门营业利润率回升，关税影响尚不确定。除 AWS 外其他业务中， 北美地区营业利润 75.2 亿美元，营业利润率 5.5%；国际营业利润 14.9 亿美 元，营业利润率 4.1%，北美和国际营业利润率同比环比回升，主要驱动因素 为物流履约费用率下降。根据 25Q2 电话会，当前难以确定关税成本如何在供 应商、亚马逊和消费者之间分摊，但不同地区的利润率都在逐季度稳步改善。 要点 事件：美国东部时间 7 月 31 日盘后，亚马逊发布 25Q2 业绩公告。截至北京 时间 8 月 1 日 8:00，亚马逊盘后股价下跌 7%。 25Q2 营收与盈利超预期，25Q3 营收指引超预期，营业利润指引低于预期。 25Q2 亚马逊净销售额 1677 亿美元，同比增长 13.3%（前值 8.6%），高于 Refinitiv 一致预期（下文简称一致预期）3.47%；营业利润 191.7 亿美元，高 于指引上限 9.5%，高于一致预期 14.3%；营业利润率 11.4%， ...

2025 年 8 月 1 日 公司研究 微软 Azure 营收加速增长，2026 财年资本开支适度扩张 ——微软（MSFT.O）2025 财年四季报业绩点评 要点 事件：美国东部时间 7 月 30 日盘后，微软发布 FY25Q4 业绩公告。截至北京 时间 7 月 31 日 8:00，微软盘后股价上涨 8.28%。 FY25Q4 营收超预期加速增长，FY26Q1 营收指引超预期。FY25Q4 微软实现 营业收入 764.4 亿美元（vs Refinitiv 一致预期+3.57%，下文简称一致预期）， 同比增长 18.1%；公司指引 FY26Q1 营业收入 747-758 亿美元，中位数 752.5 亿美元，高于一致预期 1.5%。FY25Q4 微软实现营业利润 343.2 亿美元，同 比增长 22.9%；净利润 272.3 亿美元（vs 一致预期+8.08%），同比增长 23.6%。 智能云部门和 Azure 营收增速明显加快。FY25Q4 微软智能云部门收入 298.8 亿美元，同比增长 25.6%（前值 20.8%）。FY26Q1 智能云收入指引 301-304 亿美元，中位数超一致预期 3.5%。FY25 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] 2. The model incorporates year-over-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it relies heavily on the accuracy of price and capacity factor inputs[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[15] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] 3. The potential supply and demand six months later are calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $ $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, Previous Year)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upcycles, making it a valuable tool for forecasting[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses comprehensive steel prices and considers the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the dynamics of the steel industry effectively, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input data[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends in the glass and cement industries[25] 2. It incorporates economic data such as manufacturing PMI and real estate sales to analyze potential infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability and its drivers, but it is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations[29] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices and crude oil prices[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[30] 2. Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the profitability dynamics of the refining industry, but its performance is influenced by oil price volatility[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry index achieved a cumulative excess return of 0.3% in July 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a potential supply of 18,249,000 hogs and a demand of 18,226,000 hogs for Q4 2025, indicating a roughly balanced market[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts positive year-over-year profit growth for July 2025, with improved per-ton profitability[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: The model indicates that glass industry gross profit remains in a year-over-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed[29] - **Cement Industry**: The model predicts a slight year-over-year profit growth for the cement industry in July 2025[29] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts slight year-over-year profit growth for the refining industry in July 2025[33] - **Oilfield Services**: The model observes that oil prices in July 2025 are lower than the previous year, with no significant change in new drilling activity[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the FDCA industry [7] Core Insights - FDCA is a high-value bio-based compound with a wide range of applications, particularly in the production of PEF, which has significant market potential [1][3][5] - The global FDCA market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2021 to 2028, potentially reaching USD 873.28 million by 2028 [3] - PEF, derived from FDCA, exhibits superior properties compared to PET, making it a promising alternative in various applications [4][5] Summary by Sections FDCA Overview - FDCA is a bio-based aromatic monomer derived from biomass such as starch and cellulose, recognized as a suitable substitute for terephthalic acid [1][14] - The synthesis routes for FDCA include chemical and biological methods, with the HMF route being the most promising for industrialization [1][26][27] Domestic and International Development - Internationally, several companies have achieved FDCA production since 2004, while domestic efforts began around 2010 and are rapidly advancing [2][45][56] - Notable international players include Avantium, Corbion Purac, and DuPont, which have made significant strides in FDCA and PEF research and production [45][46][48] Market Potential and Applications - The FDCA market is projected to exceed USD 1.13 billion by 2031, driven by increasing demand for bio-based products [3] - PEF's applications span food packaging, films, and fibers, with its oxygen and carbon dioxide barrier properties significantly outperforming PET [4][18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in FDCA production, such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical [5][58][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [5] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q2 2025 revenue was $1.675 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 3.9% [1] - Normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $498 million, down 4.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $175 million, reflecting a 31.1% decrease [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure, which has led to an increase in ton price and gross margin despite pressure on sales volume [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q2 2025 sales volume was 23.887 million kiloliters, down 6.2% year-on-year, while revenue per hectoliter increased by 2.4% [2] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 51.8%, up 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company experienced a decline in sales across both eastern and western regions of Asia-Pacific, with notable performance in high-end products in India [2] Regional Analysis - In the western Asia-Pacific region, revenue and normalized EBITDA saw a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and an increase of 1.4%, respectively, with sales volume down 5.6% [2] - The eastern Asia-Pacific region faced a more significant decline, with revenue and normalized EBITDA down 8.4% and 26.5%, respectively, and sales volume down 10.4% [2] Inventory Management - The company has been actively managing inventory, with Q2 2025 inventory levels lower than the previous year and significantly below the industry average [3] - The focus on non-immediate consumption channels has contributed to growth in high-end product sales [3] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to $690 million, $737 million, and $782 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 8% for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20x for 2025, 19x for 2026, and 18x for 2027, indicating a favorable outlook in the high-end market segment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) with a current price of 4.75 yuan [1]. Core Views - Qingdao Bank's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.06 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.12%, the lowest in its history [6][7]. - The bank's strategic focus is on "structural adjustment, strengthening customer base, optimizing collaboration, and enhancing capabilities" as part of its three-year strategic plan [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates were 7.5% and 16%, respectively, showing resilience despite a slight decline from the first quarter [4]. - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 13.6% year-on-year as of the end of the second quarter of 2025 [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the bank's total loans increased by 9.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [5]. - The total liabilities and deposits grew by 13.9% and 13.3%, respectively, indicating steady growth in the bank's funding base [5]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.12%, with a provision coverage ratio of 252.8%, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [6][7]. - The bank's provision for loan losses was 10.43 billion yuan, maintaining a robust buffer against potential credit losses [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.84, 0.91, and 0.97 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.66, 0.60, and 0.55 [7][12]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.28% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [12][13].