2024 年 11 月 18 日 农林牧渔 行业周报 短期内猪价或窄幅震荡，关注出栏节奏 和消费增量 生猪养殖：短期内猪价或窄幅震荡，关注出栏节奏和消费增量 价格端：本周生猪均价 16.63 元/kg，周环比-2.92%，两周环比-2.10%； 仔猪价格 530 元/头，周环比+5.58%，两周环比 6.30%。根据 iFinD 数 据，本周猪肉批发价格 23.85 元/kg，周环比-0.83%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 15.42 万头，周环比变动+0.29%。 周观点：短期内猪价或窄幅震荡，关注出栏节奏和消费增量。本周生 猪价格先涨后跌，整体震荡偏弱。短期来看，供需错配导致价格连续 走弱，但养殖端对 16 元/公斤有抵触情绪；同时持续降温后的消费有 一定底部支撑；因此短期内猪价或窄幅震荡。通过猪源供给端反馈导 向来看，11-12 月份出栏压力依存，需关注市场出栏节奏、消费增量 和养殖端情绪。 家禽养殖：关注 Q4 传统旺季，白羽肉鸡行情有望回暖 水产养殖：水产价格持稳，关注水产板块投资机会 价格端：本周鲤鱼/鲫鱼/鲈鱼/草鱼/梭子蟹/对虾/人工甲鱼的大宗价 均价同比+5.88%/+25.00%/-1 ...

Performance Overview - The credit style simulated portfolio's overall performance improved, outperforming the interest rate style, with the highest returns from the city investment ultra-long and industry ultra-long strategies at 0.91% and 0.83% respectively[6] - The city investment heavy-weight portfolio's weekly average return significantly increased to 0.38%, with the "barbell" strategy achieving a high return of 0.57%[21] Yield Sources - The yield from the city investment short-end sinking strategy fell to 0.05%, a decrease of 0.136%, marking it as the largest drop among credit strategies[7] - The capital gains contribution was substantial, particularly from the city investment barbell and duration strategies, which had yield contributions of only 8.3% and 13.4% respectively[29] Excess Returns Tracking - Over the past four weeks, the perpetual bond sinking strategy accumulated an excess return of 7.6 basis points (bp), while the secondary capital bond duration and bullet strategies yielded 5.4 bp and 5 bp respectively[8] - The city investment barbell strategy's excess return this week largely offset the losses from the previous three weeks[36] Risk Considerations - There are potential distortions in the simulated portfolio configuration methods and errors in yield measurement methods that could affect the results[9]

2024 年 11 月 17 日 建筑 证监会发布市值提升计划，基建投资增 速环比回升，看好低估值基建央企 本周投资建议： 11 月 15 日，证监会发布《上市公司监管指引第 10 号——市值管理》 （以下简称《指引》），要求上市公司以提高公司质量为基础，提升 经营效率和盈利能力，并结合实际情况依法合规运用并购重组、股权 激励、员工持股计划、现金分红、股份回购等方式，推动上市公司投 资价值回归，并对主要指数成份股公司制定市值管理制度、长期破净 公司披露估值提升计划等作出专门要求。年初，国资委提出把市值管 理纳入央企考核指标，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，目前多家传 统建筑央企 PB 处于低位，中国交建（24PE 7.22X,PB 0.63X）、中国 建筑（24PE 4.72X,PB 0.56X）、中国中铁（24PE 5.24X,PB 0.55X）、 中国铁建（24PE 5.42X,PB 0.49X），随《指引》逐步落地实施，优 质低估值建筑央企估值修复和市场回报可期。（注：截至 11 月 15 日， 24PE 为 ifind 一致预期，PB 采用 LF） 11 月 15 日，统计局发布数据，1-10 月份，狭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the sector [9]. Core Views - The adjustment of export tax rebates and the rising US dollar index are putting pressure on metal prices, particularly for industrial metals [2][28]. - Despite concerns over export demand due to policy changes, the production of copper and aluminum in China remains competitive, and demand is expected to be resilient [2][50]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and China Aluminum [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Individual Stock Trading Data Review - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52% and the Nonferrous Metals Index down 5.17% [45]. - Notable stock performances included Yuyuan New Materials with a rise of 42.61% and Yingluohua with a drop of 19.14% [45]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Update 2.1 Industrial Metals: Export Tax Policy Adjustment - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 5.3% year-on-year increase in industrial value added in October [48]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products effective December 1, 2024 [2][48]. - The US CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential for continued inflation [2][48]. 2.1.2 Copper: Price Correction and Consumption Recovery - LME copper closed at $8,971 per ton, down 4.90% from the previous week, while SHFE copper was at 73,860 yuan per ton, down 4.2% [52]. - Social copper inventory decreased to 164,300 tons, a reduction of 28,200 tons week-on-week, indicating a faster pace of destocking [52]. 2.1.3 Aluminum: Price Fluctuations - LME aluminum closed at $2,657 per ton, up 1.12%, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,780 yuan per ton, down 4.20% [3][59]. - Domestic aluminum processing enterprises are adjusting production based on demand, with a current operating rate of 63.1% [59]. 2.2 Energy Metals: Production Adjustments - MinRes announced the closure of the Bald Hill mine due to low lithium concentrate prices, with expected shipments halving in the 2025 fiscal year [63]. - Liontown adjusted its production target for Kathleen Valley to achieve 2.8 million tons by the end of 2027 [63]. 2.3 Rare Earths: Price Declines - Rare earth prices have decreased, with expectations of a replenishment wave from downstream magnetic material companies starting late November [20]. 2.4 Precious Metals: Market Reactions - COMEX gold closed at $2,567.4 per ounce, down 4.62%, reflecting a market adjustment following the US election results [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [8] Core Insights - Recent strong performance of US quantum technology companies, particularly IonQ, which has seen a stock price increase of 283% since September 27 and 103% since November 5 [21][22] - IonQ's Q3 2024 revenue reached $12.4 million, exceeding previous guidance, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $38.5 million to $42.5 million [23] - IonQ's order amount for 2024 has reached $72.8 million, close to the upper limit of its annual guidance [2] Summary by Sections Performance and Orders - IonQ's Q3 2024 revenue was $12.4 million, surpassing the guidance of $9 million to $12 million [23] - IonQ's total orders for 2024 reached $72.8 million, nearing the annual guidance of $75 million to $95 million [2] - Significant contracts include a $54.5 million deal with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory and a $9 million renewal with the University of Maryland [23] Technological Breakthroughs - IonQ achieved a key performance milestone of AQ 35 in early 2024, with plans to reach AQ 64 by 2025 [4][41] - The company announced the second milestone in quantum networking, achieving remote ion-ion entanglement [4][43] Industry Applications - IonQ has partnered with AstraZeneca and Ansys to develop quantum applications in drug discovery and computer-aided engineering, respectively [54] - The quantum technology market is projected to reach $170 billion across various applications, including logistics and autonomous driving [55] Mergers and Acquisitions - IonQ announced the acquisition of Qubitekk, enhancing its position in the quantum networking sector [60] - Qubitekk specializes in designing and integrating quantum network hardware and software [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [8]. Core Insights - Recent advancements in the overseas expansion of domestic innovative drugs have been noted, including overseas sales, NDA approvals, and product licensing [2]. - The report highlights significant sales figures for BeiGene's BTK inhibitor, Zebrutinib, with global sales reaching $1.816 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, and $690 million in Q3 2024 alone [2][30]. - The report emphasizes the increasing market share of Zebrutinib, which reached 21.8% globally and 24.9% in the U.S. market in Q3 2024 [30]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From November 11 to November 15, 2024, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - CStone Pharmaceuticals (15.98%) - Ascletis Pharma (5.04%) - Zai Lab (4.51%) - LianBio (4.11%) - Eternity Bioscience (3.89%) - The top five companies with the largest declines were: - Kintor Pharmaceutical (-19.31%) - Eucure Biopharma (-16.06%) - Junshi Biosciences (-14.63%) - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (-14.52%) - ZhiXiang JinTai (-14.39%) [1][25]. Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - Recent progress in the overseas expansion of domestic innovative drugs includes: 1. NDA submissions: Dicerna Pharmaceuticals submitted an NDA for the drug Suvoritide to the FDA, and Betta Pharmaceuticals is expected to receive final review results for its ALK-positive NSCLC NDA by December 28, 2024 [2][30]. 2. Overseas sales: BeiGene reported global sales of Zebrutinib reaching $1.816 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 sales of $690 million, including $504 million in the U.S. (up 87% year-on-year) and $97 million in Europe (up 217% year-on-year) [2][30]. 3. Overseas licensing: Recent collaborations include BioNTech's acquisition of Promis and Merck's licensing agreement for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody LM-299 from LianBio, with an upfront payment of $588 million [2][37]. New Drug Approvals and Applications - This week, four new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry, with 46 new drugs receiving IND approvals, 38 IND applications accepted, and 7 NDA applications accepted [38]. - Notable approvals include: - Merck's global exclusive license for LianBio's PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody [38]. - BioNTech's acquisition of Promis for $800 million [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of AI terminal applications, particularly with the launch of Baidu's AI glasses expected in 2025, which features advanced functionalities and low power consumption [1]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a new era with the introduction of 300mm silicon carbide substrates by Tianyue Advanced, catering to the growing demand from clean energy and high-power applications [2]. - The global smartphone market has shown continuous growth for four consecutive quarters, with a 2% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2024, reaching 307 million units [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News Overview - Baidu's AI glasses are set to launch in 2025, featuring a lightweight design and multiple smart functionalities [1]. - Tianyue Advanced's 300mm silicon carbide substrate marks a significant advancement in the domestic silicon carbide industry [2]. - The global smartphone market has seen a 10% increase in revenue in Q3 2024, reaching a record high for the quarter [3]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Semiconductor - Global semiconductor sales reached $166 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting a 23.2% year-on-year growth [44]. 2.2 SiC - The introduction of 300mm silicon carbide substrates is expected to enhance chip production efficiency and reduce costs [48]. 2.3 Consumer Electronics - In Q3 2024, global smartphone shipments totaled 307 million units, marking a 2% increase year-on-year [54]. 3. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a 9.36% increase in the week of November 4-8, 2024, with semiconductors leading the gains at 11.98% [59][62]. - The electronic index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 56.78, indicating a high valuation compared to historical averages [67].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国投证券研究报告 2024W46 | 2024年11 月16日 国投家电 | 双11期间扫地机增长亮眼 家电行业首席分析师李奕臻： 今年双11国家以旧换新补贴叠加电商平台优惠， 消费者购买家电能享受更大的折扣力度。以爆款 新品扫地机为例，其补贴后的折扣可达7折左右。 2024W42~W45 扫地机、台式烤箱、空调、电视的 线上销售额增长良好；其中扫地机的同比增速超 过50%，表现突出。 行业评级：领先大市-A 风险提示：行业竞争风险、原材料价格波动风险 等。 以旧换新刺激需求，双11扫地机、烤箱、空调、电视线上增长良好 ◼ 在以旧换新补贴和平台补贴的刺激下，2024年双11期间（2024W42~W45）扫地机、台式烤箱、空调、电视 的线上零售额增长良好。同时，以旧换新带动了家电结构升级和均价提升，空调、冰箱、电视、扫地机等 品类的线上零售额增速高于零售量增速。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading the Market - A" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The robotics industry faces short-term profit pressure, with weak downstream demand and a slow recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to accelerate industrialization, with mass production anticipated by 2025 [8] - Industrial robots are experiencing weak demand recovery, while domestic substitution is accelerating [2] Market Performance - The robotics sector showed thematic investment characteristics, with significant volatility driven by humanoid robot events [1] - From the beginning of 2024 to November 8, 2024, the robotics sector rose by 17.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - The sector experienced multiple phases of volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors, Tesla's announcements, and policy support [17] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the sample companies' total revenue was 39.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.29 billion yuan, down 24.78% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin of the sector was 26.01%, up 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.85%, down 1.83 percentage points [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net operating cash flow of 2.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.7% [1] Industrial Robots - In Q1-Q3 2024, China's industrial robot sales reached 216,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while production was 416,300 units, up 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The domestic substitution rate of industrial robots increased from 24.2% in 2017 to 45.1% in 2023, and further to 50.1% in H1 2024 [2] - The industrial robot density in China reached 392 units per 10,000 people in 2022, higher than the global average of 151 units per 10,000 people [53] Humanoid Robots - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots," targeting mass production by 2025 [8] - AI advancements are expected to significantly boost the robotics industry, with humanoid robots likely to achieve industrial breakthroughs [64] - Domestic companies such as Ubtech, Fourier, and Unitree are actively developing and iterating humanoid robot products [68][69] Key Companies - Companies like Estun, Efort, and Tuosda are highlighted in the industrial robot sector, with varying performance in revenue and profit [25] - In the humanoid robot sector, companies such as Ubtech, Fourier, and Unitree are making significant progress in product development and commercialization [69] Investment Recommendations - Focus on industrial robot companies with strong product capabilities and customer resources, such as Estun, Efort, and Tuosda [9] - Pay attention to the progress of humanoid robot industrialization and key component suppliers, including companies like Mingzhi Electric, Beite Technology, and Green Harmony [9]

2024 年 11 月 15 日 传媒 行业分析 证券研究报告 出版专题：红利防守，横向逻辑或可加 持 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 首选股票 目标价（元） 评级 行业具备高准入壁垒，地方出版集团竞争地位稳固。在出版产 业链中，一般模式是以出版牵头，带动印刷、发行和出版物资贸 易三个环节的发展，体现为出版毛利率>发行毛利率>印刷毛利率> 物资销售毛利率，出版、发行为产业链最关键的两个环节。图书 出版与发行行业有较高的准入壁垒，多个地方政府将旗下出版集 团和发行集团打包成为区域性国有出版集团来进行上市融资。地 方性出版集团具备牌照优势和股权优势，大多形成集出版、印刷、 出版物资贸易、发行为一体产业链，在区域内享有稳固地位。 教材教辅经营稳健，一般图书企稳回升。国资背景出版公司主 要收入来源多为教辅教材的出版、发行，受益于教材教辅业务高 壁垒、稳定特性，其经营稳健，体现在报表层面，2021-2023 年收 入同比增速基本维持在-10%至+10%以内；利润端也整体呈现稳中 有增，2023 年受税收政策变化引起的一次性收益进一步放大增长 趋势。在一般图书方面，2023 年，疫后复苏带来图书零售市场恢 复和发展的新 ...