Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April, while imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.2% in April[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient in June to Q3 due to tariff reductions and pre-Christmas orders, but the overall external demand is still slowing down[2] Export and Import Trends - May exports totaled $316.10 billion, a historical high for the month, but the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the four-year average of 3.48%[2] - The overall external demand is below the boom-bust line, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6% in May, indicating a contraction[2] - Imports in May were $212.88 billion, the lowest for the same month since 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 3%[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU increased by 12.02%, up 3.75 percentage points from April, while exports to the US fell significantly by 34.52%[2] - The ASEAN region saw a decline in exports by 14.84%, reflecting the impact of "export grabbing" on demand[2] Product-Specific Insights - Key products like integrated circuits and automobiles showed significant recovery, while labor-intensive products like toys and footwear remained at low levels due to tariff impacts[2] - The import of crude oil saw a decline of 22.1% year-on-year, while imports of grains and soybeans increased significantly, reflecting a shift in demand[3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the potassium fertilizer market, with a focus on companies like Yaqi International and Dongfang Iron Tower [6][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of consolidation in the carbon fiber industry, recommending attention to leading companies with scale and technological advantages such as Guangwei Composite and Zhongfu Shenying [7][17]. - The potassium fertilizer contract signed between Russia and India at $349 per ton indicates a potential upward trend in the potassium fertilizer market, with a 23.3% increase from last year's price [6][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the chemical sector's performance, noting that the basic chemical index outperformed the market with a 2.61% increase [8][21]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Events - The Indian potassium fertilizer contract was finalized at $349 per ton, which is a 23.3% increase from last year's price of $283 per ton, indicating a favorable market outlook [6][15]. - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with significant exits from major players like Dow Chemical, suggesting a shift towards companies with stronger technological capabilities [7][17]. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.61%, outperforming the broader market, with notable gains in sub-sectors such as pesticides (7.69%) and other chemical raw materials (5.05%) [8][21][22]. - Key products showing price increases include sulfuric acid (4.67%) and caustic soda (4.56%), while vitamin E saw a significant decline of 13.46% [8][32][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated players in the refining-PX-PTA chain, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19]. - It also suggests monitoring leading companies in the refrigerant and fluorochemical sectors, as well as those involved in agricultural chemicals, which are currently experiencing favorable market conditions [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.1 percentage points, with brokerage and insurance indices rising by 2.4% and 1.0% respectively [4][8] - The report highlights the change of actual controllers of AMC-related brokerages to Central Huijin, indicating a regulatory push for deeper reforms in the capital market [4] - The report anticipates that the upcoming LPR adjustments and capital market policy announcements will create opportunities for investment in the insurance sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-bank financial index rose by 2.0%, with the brokerage index up by 2.4% and the insurance index up by 1.0% [4][8] - Average daily trading volume for stock funds was 14,232 billion, an increase of 8.7% week-on-week [17] Industry News - The actual controller change of several brokerages to Central Huijin is expected to enhance resource allocation efficiency through mergers and acquisitions [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on supporting technology innovation and deepening reforms in the capital market [34] Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high asset returns, and ROE improvements, recommending large, financially strong brokerages [4] - In the insurance sector, the report advises monitoring large comprehensive insurance companies that have competitive advantages [4]

行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年6月9日 [Table_NewTitle] 博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增长，存储市场 持续回暖 ——电子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] 标配 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 1. 英伟达Q1数据中心业务成绩亮 眼，美限制EDA龙头对华提供服务 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 ——电子行业周报（2025/5/26- 2025/6/1） （20240923-20240929） 2. 小米发布自研玄戒双芯，华为鸿 蒙电脑正式发布——电子行业周报 （ ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand despite policy disruptions, with a focus on structural opportunities in AI and semiconductor equipment [5][7][11] - In May 2025, global semiconductor demand continued to improve, with mobile phones and tablets showing slight growth, while TWS earphones, wearable devices, and smart home products experienced rapid growth [5][8] - The pricing trend remains upward, with expectations for continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics in June 2025 [5][7] - The semiconductor sector's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 61.52% and a PB ratio of 39.18%, reflecting a historical context of valuation [6][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in public fund holdings in the semiconductor sector, accounting for 12% of total public fund stock value [6][7] Group 2: Carbon Fiber Industry Developments - The carbon fiber industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with a focus on leading companies that possess scale and technological advantages [12][17] - Global carbon fiber production capacity is expected to reach 309,000 tons by 2024, with a growth rate of 9.23% anticipated for 2025, despite underutilization of capacity [13][14] - The demand for carbon fiber is projected to rebound in 2024, driven by sectors such as aerospace and low-altitude economy applications [15][16] - Key players in the domestic carbon fiber market are advancing technology and expanding capacity, with significant developments in high-performance carbon fiber products [16][17] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - In May 2025, the CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.3%, indicating ongoing price pressures in the economy [19][21] - The decline in oil prices has negatively impacted transportation and communication prices, contributing to the overall inflationary pressures [20][21] - The core CPI has shown slight recovery, influenced by seasonal factors and consumer behavior during promotional periods [20][21] Group 4: Market Overview and Financial News - Recent financial news highlights government initiatives aimed at improving social welfare and addressing public concerns, which may influence market sentiment [22][23] - The A-share market has shown positive momentum, with major indices experiencing gains, indicating a favorable trading environment [26][27] - The foreign trade data for May 2025 revealed a trade surplus of $103.22 billion, reflecting a mixed performance in exports and imports [24][25]

Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the month-on-month change was -0.2%, down from 0.1%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -3.3% from -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[3] CPI Analysis - The CPI month-on-month decline of -0.2% aligns with the seasonal average over the past four years[3] - Food prices showed resilience with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, better than the four-year average of -0.9%, while non-food prices also fell by -0.2%, below the average of 0.0%[3] - Pork prices have remained stable, contributing less to CPI changes, with fresh vegetables and fruits showing stronger seasonal performance[3] PPI Insights - The PPI has broken below the previous range of -2.0% to -3.0%, indicating a significant downward trend[3] - Production materials have seen a month-on-month decline for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of -4.0%[3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decrease[3] Economic Outlook - Actual GDP is expected to remain resilient in Q2, but nominal GDP may face pressure, impacting equity market potential[3] - The report highlights the need for increased policy measures to stimulate demand and address supply-side competition issues[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflationary pressures from the U.S.[3]

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, which may put pressure on oil prices. The report suggests that despite short-term bearish sentiment due to trade wars, the domestic petrochemical industry maintains a cost advantage due to improved cost structures [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on upstream resource companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as oil prices are expected to recover after hitting seasonal lows in Q2 [6][7]. - The marine oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with domestic reserves and production continuing to grow. Companies like CNOOC Engineering and Bohai Drilling are highlighted for their low valuations and advanced technology [7]. Group 2: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile reported a wholesale sales volume of 224,300 units in May 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.47% and a year-on-year increase of 17.65%. The cumulative sales volume for the first five months of 2025 reached 1.1202 million units, up 1.00% year-on-year [8][9]. - The indirect controlling shareholder, China Ordnance Equipment Group, has received approval for a restructuring plan, which is expected to enhance Changan's strategic position and operational efficiency [10][11]. - The report anticipates significant growth in Changan's electric vehicle segment, with a projected increase in sales driven by new model launches and international expansion [9][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs in May 2025, slightly above expectations, but the report notes a downward revision in previous months' data, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market [12][13]. - The service sector remains the primary contributor to job growth, while the manufacturing sector shows signs of cooling, likely due to declining retail demand [14][15]. - Despite stable unemployment rates, the report highlights rising wage growth, which may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15]. Group 4: Macro Economic Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the recovery of the consumer services sector, technology, and cyclical leaders, suggesting a potential reversal in these areas [16][19]. - Global asset performance shows a rebound in stock markets, with commodities like oil and gold also experiencing price increases due to improved trade relations and monetary policy adjustments [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, including manufacturing PMI and industrial output, to gauge future economic trends [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing structural contradictions leading to accelerated consolidation. Global carbon fiber production capacity is expected to reach 309,000 tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 9.23% in 2025, but the overall capacity utilization rate is below 70% [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to rebound in 2024, driven by sectors such as domestic large aircraft and low-altitude economy, with wind energy and aerospace markets showing significant growth [7]. - Domestic carbon fiber companies are focusing on three main application areas: aerospace and military, high-performance industrial applications, and low-cost industrial applications, with key players like Guangwei Composites and Zhongfu Shenying making notable advancements [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The carbon fiber market is characterized by increasing competition and a shift in regional development, with the U.S. expected to capture 40% of the global wind energy carbon fiber market [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The exit of major players like Dow and the closure of facilities by companies such as SGL Carbon indicate a trend towards industry consolidation [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind energy is projected to grow by 120% in 2024, while aerospace and military applications are expected to see a 20% increase [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with scale and technological advantages, such as Guangwei Composites, Zhongfu Shenying, Zhongjian Technology, and Jilin Chemical Fiber [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...