Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, up from 3.7% in the previous period[3] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 3.2% previously[3] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries rose by 5.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024[3] Industrial Performance - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with added value increasing by 9.1%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from December 2024[3] - The equipment manufacturing sector outperformed the overall industrial growth, achieving a year-on-year increase of 10.6%[3] - Industrial production growth remained stable, with a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] Consumer Trends - The consumption recovery is still dependent on further policy implementation, with the service retail sector growing by 4.9% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from 2024[3] - The automotive sector's sales lagged behind last year, while non-automotive retail sales grew by 4.8%[3] - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy is showing effects, particularly in categories like communication equipment and jewelry, which saw notable increases[3] Investment Insights - High-tech industry investment rose by 9.7% year-on-year, significantly above the overall FAI growth rate[3] - Infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.94%, while narrow infrastructure investment slightly declined to 5.6%[5] - Real estate sales for new homes fell by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a need for new policy measures to stabilize the market[3] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market[5] - The U.S. economic recession poses a risk to exports, necessitating a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for the year[3]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 [开门红已现，关注后续政策落实 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年1-2月经济数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] ➢ 事件：3月17日，国家统计局公布2025年1-2月经济数据。1-2月社零总额同比4.0%，前值 3.7%；固投同比4.1%，前值3.2%；规上工业增加值同比5.9%，前值6.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：1-2月经济数据整体偏积极。高技术产业是较大亮点，高技术制造业增加值及高 技术产业投资均明显高于整体水平。工业生产增速小幅回落但维持相对高位，装备制造表 现好于整体；社零及固投增速较去年12月均有所改善，"两新"政策的扩容加力效果开始 显现；地产销售新房要弱于二手房，仍需要新一轮的政策加力，投资端土拍溢价率回升是 积极的信号，未来需要关注专项债收储的进度及规模。全年来看，一方面美国存在衰退风 险，另一方面关税压力或逐步显现，二季度后出口或面临压力，扩大内需仍是全年的政策 主线，关注两会后政策的落实节奏。 ➢ 工业生产小幅回落但相对稳定，高技术及装备制造表现较好。1-2月规模以上工业增加值 同比5.9%，较 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年3月17日 标配 行 业 周 报 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 海外科技股2024Q4业绩回暖， DeepSeek大模型引燃AI云与端热情 ——半导体行业2月份月报 2. AI Agent产品Manus亮相，AI眼 镜驱动消费电子新一轮增长——电 子行业周报（2025/3/3-2025/3/9） 3. 英伟达Blackwell芯片需求高涨， 小米新机与新车发布拉动市场热情 ——电子行业周报（2025/2/24- 2025/3/2） [Table_NewTitle] 北方华创拟取得芯源微控制权，关注 GTC大会带来的AI产业链机遇 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 ——电子行业周报2025/3/10-2025/3/16 [ ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年3月17日 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 海外科技股2024Q4业绩回暖， DeepSeek大模型引燃AI云与端热情 ——半导体行业2月份月报 2. AI Agent产品Manus亮相，AI眼 镜驱动消费电子新一轮增长——电 子行业周报（2025/3/3-2025/3/9） 3. 英伟达Blackwell芯片需求高涨， 小米新机与新车发布拉动市场热情 ——电子行业周报（2025/2/24- 2025/3/2） [Table_NewTitle] 北方华创拟取得芯源微控制权，关注 GTC大会带来的AI产业链机遇 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 ➢ 电子板块观点：下周英伟达GTC 2025大会即将发布的 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250317 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 wangyang@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1.海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） ➢ 2.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI ➢ 1.中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.国务院第八次全体会议：要更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力 ➢ 3.央行：着力推动提升重大战略、重点领域和薄弱 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 ➢ 1.海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） ➢ 2.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 wangyang@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 [table_main] 重点推荐 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250317 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] ➢ 1.中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.国务院第八次全体会议：要更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力 ➢ 3.央行：着力推动提升重大战略、重点领域和薄弱 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China released financial data for February, indicating a marginal slowdown in credit due to the high volume of lending in January. Government financing has significantly supported social financing, countering the negative impact of the slowdown in corporate and household credit. Notably, household credit in January-February reached a five-year low, raising concerns about the urgency to stabilize household credit [7][8] - Government financing has accelerated, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.69 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 1.10 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. This accounted for 75% of the new social financing, which rose to 8.20% [7][8] - The report indicates a marginal slowdown in credit issuance to enterprises and individuals, with new RMB loans in February totaling 650.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 326.7 billion yuan. The decline in corporate credit is attributed to the high lending in January and the accelerated pace of government debt management [7][8] - Future credit efforts may focus on optimizing structure, with an increased emphasis on stabilizing household credit. The government aims to support consumption and small businesses, as indicated by recent fiscal policies [7][8] - Monetary supply remains stable, with M2 and M1 growing by 7.0% and 0.1% year-on-year, respectively. The report notes that the tightening of funding rates has led banks to stabilize their interest margins, promoting rational loan pricing [7][8] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report emphasizes the positive impact of macroeconomic policies and the need to focus on stable dividends and recovery potential in the banking sector [3] Credit Market Trends - The report discusses the trends in credit issuance, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to support both corporate and household sectors [7][8] Government Financing - Government financing has played a crucial role in supporting social financing growth, with significant increases in bond issuance [7][8] Interest Rate Environment - The report suggests that the current monetary policy environment is relatively favorable for interest margins, with expectations of a less severe decline in margins compared to previous years [9] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [9]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 图表目录 | 图 1 全球主要大类资产周度表现， % . | | --- | | 图 2 中债美债周度表现，BP … | | 图 3 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅，%，… | | 图 4 原油价格，美元/桶 …………… ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾：3月14日当周，全球股市表现分化，美股继续调整，A股表现亮眼；主 要商品期货中黄金创新高，原油、铜上涨，铝收跌；美元指数小幅回落，日元贬值，欧元 和人民币小幅升 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月14日 [Table_invest] 买入（首次覆盖） [乐鑫科技（ Table_NewTitle] 688018）：AIOT次新品显著 放量，产品矩阵拓展布局新市场 ——公司深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 司 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 ➢ 公司目标市场规模扩大2.5倍，次新品放量增长，产品矩阵丰富不断延伸新市场。公司次新 类的高性价比产品线ESP32-C3、ESP32-C2以及高性能产品线ESP32-S3处于高速增长 期，2024年业绩快报显示收入增长约40%。同时，在原材料成本下降、新客户不断增加、 前期毛利率较高的手持小型化设备放量、竞争格局改善多重因素加持下，公司盈利能力进 一步提升，公司2024年毛利率水平保持40%以上。公司除了经典产品（8266、ESP32、 S2）、次新品（C2、C3、S3），还布局新产品（C5、C6、H2、H4、P4），新产品在2025 年有望逐步放量，同时，公司也将下游应用布局到消费电 ...