Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to seek undervalued equity assets under balanced allocation amid economic expectations and market risk preferences, noting a global increase in risk appetite with most stock markets rising [8][9] - It suggests that despite weak growth signals from the US PMI and rising commodity prices, the US CPI showed a mild decline, indicating a stable economic outlook [8][9] - The report recommends positioning in undervalued sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, as domestic equity assets remain favorable in the long term due to improving consumption and technology trends [8][9] Group 2 - The domestic equity market showed a preference for financial, cyclical, consumer, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 12,325 billion yuan, down from 13,242 billion yuan [11][17] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 20 experienced gains while 11 saw declines, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors leading the gains [11][17] - The report highlights that the market's style shift is influenced by new public fund regulations and the easing of trade tensions, which has affected trading dynamics [11][17] Group 3 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that US stocks outperformed A-shares, while commodities like oil and aluminum saw price increases [11][12] - It indicates that the US Treasury yields rose following a downgrade in the US credit rating by Moody's, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increasing to 3.98% and 4.43%, respectively [12][12] - The report also mentions the strengthening of the offshore yuan against the US dollar, with a 0.42% appreciation noted [12][12]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月16日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：证券板块指数在近日的震荡盘升中短线技术条件明显修复。短线虽仍处头肩底 形态内，尚未突破颈线位，也尚未突破60日均线，仍或因多空争夺而震荡。但指数下方大 单资金介入较深，下方支撑位较多，回落空间相对小。而若指数有效突破头肩底颈线位， 或相比于2015年5月的前期高点，指数上行空间较大。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the company "老百姓" (603883) is focusing on its advantageous regions, with expectations for performance to gradually stabilize and improve [5][6][8] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 22.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 519 million yuan, down 44.13% year-on-year [5][6] - The company experienced short-term performance decline due to factors such as losses from new store openings, store closures, and increased depreciation expenses [5][6][7] Group 2 - The retail business generated revenue of 19.107 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25%, while the franchise, alliance, and distribution business saw revenue of 3.105 billion yuan, an increase of 5.92% [6][7] - The company is expanding its new retail ecosystem, with online sales reaching approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 24% [6][7] - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.55% [8] Group 3 - The report indicates that the company is leveraging opportunities in lower-tier markets, with 80% of new stores in 2024 located in cities at the prefecture level and below [8] - The company plans to continue focusing on advantageous markets and accelerate the acquisition of existing market share, aiming to capitalize on industry consolidation opportunities [8] - The investment forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards for 2025 and 2026, with expected net profits of 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan for 2025 to 2027 [8] Group 4 - The banking sector is experiencing rapid growth in social financing driven by government financing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in social financing scale balance as of April [11][12] - The report notes that the marginal growth of loans is slowing, with the total new loans in April being 844 billion yuan, the lowest for the same period in recent years [12][13] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, with a focus on optimizing the structure of credit distribution [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1][4]. - The company faced short-term performance pressure due to various factors, including losses from new store openings and store closures, as well as increased depreciation and amortization [4][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its retail ecosystem and enhancing its new retail business, with significant growth in online sales channels [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year, down 11.27% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year, up 325.63% quarter-on-quarter) [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5]. Business Segment Performance - Retail business revenue in 2024 was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company’s online sales reached approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 24% [4][5]. - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores (up 12.55% year-on-year) [4][5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [4][5]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 9.13% in 2025, 9.49% in 2026, and 9.39% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit have been under pressure due to various factors, including losses from new stores and increased depreciation [4][5] - The company is focusing on expanding its retail business and enhancing its new retail ecosystem, with significant growth in online sales and O2O services [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year) [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5] Business Segments - Retail business revenue was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4] - The company has been expanding its product line in the new retail sector, with online sales reaching approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of about 24% [4] Market Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on its advantageous markets and accelerate its presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of new stores in 2024 located in cities at or below the prefecture level [4][5] - The total number of stores reached 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.55% [4][5] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [5] - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [5]

Group 1: U.S. Inflation Analysis - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3% [5][6] - Three reasons are identified for the lower-than-expected inflation: the time lag in tariff transmission to prices, absorption of tariff impacts by U.S. importers and foreign exporters, and declining energy prices offsetting tariff-induced price increases [6][10][12] - Energy prices continued to decline, with energy commodities down 11.5% year-on-year, while energy services remained strong, with gas prices increasing 15.7% year-on-year [7][8] Group 2: Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) - Yifeng Pharmacy achieved a revenue of 24.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [16][17] - The company reported a strong performance in its franchise and distribution business, with a revenue increase of 11.34% [17] - The company is focusing on expanding its O2O business, which generated 2.127 billion yuan in revenue, with a 23.02% year-on-year growth [17][19] Group 3: Zhichun Technology (603690) - Zhichun Technology reported a revenue of 3.605 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.40%, but a net profit decline of 93.75% [21][22] - The company is transitioning to a domestic supply chain, with system integration business revenue growing by 22.07% [22][23] - New orders increased by 17.88% in 2024, with a focus on equipment and electronic materials business segments [24][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China announced financial data for April, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in social financing scale and a 7.2% increase in the balance of RMB loans [7]. - The marginal slowdown in loans in April is attributed to the strong lending pace in Q1, which has led to a "prepayment effect" in subsequent months, alongside weak demand from real estate and consumption sectors [7]. - Government financing continues to play a significant role in driving social financing growth, with new government bonds issued amounting to 976.2 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year [7]. - The report anticipates that future credit will focus more on optimizing structure while maintaining total volume, with an emphasis on supporting consumption, small and medium enterprises, and green initiatives [7]. - The M2 growth rate has rebounded significantly due to a low base effect, while M1 growth has slightly declined, indicating weak liquidity demand from enterprises and households [7]. - Loan pricing is becoming more rational, and the monetary policy environment is relatively friendly, leading to a decrease in margin pressure on interest rates [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - As of the end of April, the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with RMB loans growing by 7.2% [7]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from Q1, while the rate for personal housing loans remained stable at 3.1% [7]. Credit and Financing Trends - The report notes a significant drop in new RMB loans in April, with an increase of only 84.4 billion yuan, the lowest for the same period in recent years [7]. - Government bond issuance has been robust, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan planned for the year, reflecting a 32% increase from the previous year [7]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the credit environment will remain supportive, with a focus on structural optimization in lending practices [7]. - The anticipated decline in interest margin pressure for 2025 is expected to be less severe than in 2024, supported by stable dividend payouts from state-owned banks and a recovery in key sectors [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance growth, showcasing its refined management capabilities. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan (up 6.53% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.529 billion yuan (up 8.26% year-on-year) [2] - The company has seen steady growth in its retail and franchise distribution businesses, with the online O2O business growing rapidly. In 2024, retail revenue reached 21.188 billion yuan (up 4.97% year-on-year), and the O2O segment contributed 1.721 billion yuan, growing 23.02% year-on-year [5] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while maintaining a steady expansion pace. As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores reached 14,684, with a net increase of 1,434 stores year-on-year [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.009 billion yuan (up 0.64% year-on-year) and a net profit of 449 million yuan (up 10.51% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, and for Q1 2025, it was 39.64%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The company’s franchise and distribution business achieved a revenue of 2.107 billion yuan in 2024 (up 11.34% year-on-year) [5] - The company has strengthened its prescription drug services and expanded its product offerings, including functional and non-functional food and daily necessities [5] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.755 billion yuan, 1.992 billion yuan, and 2.245 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are expected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.85 yuan [7]

Group 1: Tire Industry - Raw material cost pressure has eased, with a focus on changes in domestic and foreign demand. Prices for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives have decreased, benefiting tire companies' profit recovery. However, international trade friction poses challenges for tire exports, and companies face ongoing shipment pressures. Long-term, companies with global layouts close to major consumer markets are expected to compete effectively, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Sailun, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [6][5]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.76% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Sub-sectors like health products and baked goods performed well, with respective increases of 5.09% and 4.25%. Notable stock performances included Jia Jia Food and Qinghai Spring, with increases of 21.49% and 20.65% [8][9]. - In the liquor segment, companies are focusing on product and channel optimization. For instance, Wuliangye has maintained stable sales of its main products, while Jiannanchun has seen significant growth in the 100-300 RMB price range. The white liquor sector is expected to recover as policies support demand [9][11][13]. Group 3: Banking Sector - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 84.16 billion RMB, down 3.99% year-on-year. The bank's total assets reached 51.55 trillion RMB, up 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [15][16]. - The bank's net interest margin was 1.33%, down 15 basis points year-on-year. The decline in interest margin is attributed to the repricing of loans and the impact of government bond issuance [18][20]. - The bank's fee and commission income showed a narrowing decline, indicating potential recovery in wealth management and capital market activities [19][20]. Group 4: Petrochemical Industry - The report highlights the potential for recovery in oil demand due to trade negotiations between China and the U.S. The expected stabilization of oil prices in Q2 is anticipated to benefit companies with upstream resources, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [22][25]. - The petrochemical sector is expected to maintain a cost advantage due to improvements in the domestic supply chain, despite short-term bearish sentiment from trade tensions [23][24]. Group 5: Refrigerant Industry - Prices for refrigerants have been on an upward trend, with demand continuing to rise. As of April 30, 2025, prices for R32, R125, and R134a were reported at 49,000 RMB/ton, 45,000 RMB/ton, and 47,500 RMB/ton, respectively [26][27]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, supporting refrigerant demand. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua and Sanmei [28]. Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - Lingrui Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 3.501 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, with a net profit of 723 million RMB, up 27.19%. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.021 billion RMB, a 12.29% increase year-on-year [29][30]. - The company is expanding its product line and market reach, with significant growth in its patch and tablet segments. The acquisition of Yingu Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance its product matrix and market penetration [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].