[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 超配 业 周 报 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 63% [table_stockTrend] -29% -14% 2% 17% 32% 48% 24-03 24-06 24-09 24-12 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券业并购重组预期升温，险企对外 开放再深化——非银金融行业周报 （20250224-20250302） 2.资本市场助力书写金融"五篇大文 章"，险资投资黄金试点启动——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20250203- 20250209） 3.落实长周期考核，助力培育耐心资 本——中长期资金系列研究（一） [Table_NewTitle 湘财拟合并大智慧引导券业并购创新， ] 长端利率企稳改善险资再配置收益 ——非银金融行业周报（20250310-20250316） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 ...

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, up from 3.7% in the previous period[3] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 3.2% previously[3] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries rose by 5.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024[3] Industrial Performance - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with added value increasing by 9.1%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from December 2024[3] - The equipment manufacturing sector outperformed the overall industrial growth, achieving a year-on-year increase of 10.6%[3] - Industrial production growth remained stable, with a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] Consumer Trends - The consumption recovery is still dependent on further policy implementation, with the service retail sector growing by 4.9% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from 2024[3] - The automotive sector's sales lagged behind last year, while non-automotive retail sales grew by 4.8%[3] - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy is showing effects, particularly in categories like communication equipment and jewelry, which saw notable increases[3] Investment Insights - High-tech industry investment rose by 9.7% year-on-year, significantly above the overall FAI growth rate[3] - Infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.94%, while narrow infrastructure investment slightly declined to 5.6%[5] - Real estate sales for new homes fell by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a need for new policy measures to stabilize the market[3] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market[5] - The U.S. economic recession poses a risk to exports, necessitating a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for the year[3]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 [开门红已现，关注后续政策落实 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年1-2月经济数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] ➢ 事件：3月17日，国家统计局公布2025年1-2月经济数据。1-2月社零总额同比4.0%，前值 3.7%；固投同比4.1%，前值3.2%；规上工业增加值同比5.9%，前值6.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：1-2月经济数据整体偏积极。高技术产业是较大亮点，高技术制造业增加值及高 技术产业投资均明显高于整体水平。工业生产增速小幅回落但维持相对高位，装备制造表 现好于整体；社零及固投增速较去年12月均有所改善，"两新"政策的扩容加力效果开始 显现；地产销售新房要弱于二手房，仍需要新一轮的政策加力，投资端土拍溢价率回升是 积极的信号，未来需要关注专项债收储的进度及规模。全年来看，一方面美国存在衰退风 险，另一方面关税压力或逐步显现，二季度后出口或面临压力，扩大内需仍是全年的政策 主线，关注两会后政策的落实节奏。 ➢ 工业生产小幅回落但相对稳定，高技术及装备制造表现较好。1-2月规模以上工业增加值 同比5.9%，较 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to unveil new AI chip platforms, which could create opportunities in the AI industry chain [5][10]. - North China Huachuang is projected to rank sixth among the top ten global semiconductor equipment suppliers in 2024, with plans to acquire control of ChipSource to enhance its semiconductor equipment capabilities [5][12]. - The electronics industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with a recommendation to focus on specific sectors such as AIOT and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - NVIDIA's GTC conference will feature over 1,000 presentations and is expected to introduce the new AI chip platform "Rubin" [10]. - North China Huachuang plans a two-step acquisition of ChipSource to strengthen its semiconductor equipment supply chain [10][12]. - Intel appointed a new CEO, signaling potential strategic shifts within the company [11]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index declining by 0.62% compared to a 1.59% increase in the CSI 300 Index [21][23]. - As of March 14, 2025, various sub-sectors within the electronics industry showed mixed performance, with semiconductor stocks declining by 2.11% [21][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT, with specific companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [5][6]. 2. AI-driven innovations, particularly in computing chips and optical devices [5][6]. 3. Upstream supply chain replacements, emphasizing domestic alternatives in semiconductor equipment and materials [5][6]. 4. Consumer electronics, which are expected to rebound [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, highlighting a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to unveil new AI chip platforms, which could create opportunities in the AI industry chain [5][10]. - North China Huachuang is projected to rank sixth among the top ten global semiconductor equipment suppliers in 2024, indicating significant growth and strategic acquisitions to enhance its supply capabilities [5][12]. - The electronics industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with a recommendation to focus on specific sectors that are expected to rebound [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - NVIDIA's GTC conference will feature over 1,000 presentations and 300 live demonstrations, focusing on advancements in semiconductor chips and AI technologies [10]. - North China Huachuang plans to acquire control of ChipSource through a two-step strategy, enhancing its semiconductor equipment capabilities [10][12]. - TSMC reported a 43.1% year-on-year revenue increase in February 2025, with a strong outlook for its 2nm process technology [12]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen 300 index rising by 1.59% while the Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 0.62% [21][23]. - As of March 14, 2025, various sub-sectors within the electronics industry showed mixed performance, with semiconductor equipment down by 4.29% and electronic components up by 6.68% [23][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors for investment: 1. AIOT sector, with companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [5][6]. 2. AI innovation-driven sector, including computing chips and optical devices [5][6]. 3. Upstream supply chain for semiconductor equipment and materials [5][6]. 4. Consumer electronics, which is expected to rebound [5][6].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250317 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 wangyang@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1.海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） ➢ 2.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI ➢ 1.中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.国务院第八次全体会议：要更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力 ➢ 3.央行：着力推动提升重大战略、重点领域和薄弱 ...

Investment Rating - The market index rating is bullish, indicating that the CSI 300 index is expected to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility of overseas data and the certainty of domestic assets, suggesting that domestic equity assets are favored amidst global uncertainties [8][6]. - The report notes a short-term easing of inflation pressures in the U.S., with the February CPI rising by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9% [14][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming domestic economic data, including industrial production and retail sales, which will reflect the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on real estate prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Data and Domestic Asset Certainty - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with U.S. stocks adjusting while A-shares performed well. Gold prices reached new highs, while oil and copper prices increased [6]. - The report indicates that the domestic equity market is currently favored due to its relative stability compared to the uncertainties in the U.S. economy [8]. 2. Inflation Pressure and Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. February CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with core CPI at 3.1%, reflecting a decrease in inflationary pressures [14][13]. - The report suggests that while inflation is easing, the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in the CPI data, indicating potential future volatility [17][14]. 3. A-Share Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a significant increase, closing up 60 points, or 1.81%, supported by strong buying momentum [30]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has improved, with substantial net inflows into various sectors, particularly insurance and beverage manufacturing [31][32]. 4. Economic Policy Developments - The Chinese government has introduced a consumption stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market [19][20]. - The central bank is focusing on enhancing financing accessibility for key sectors and promoting consumption finance to support economic recovery [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China released financial data for February, indicating a marginal slowdown in credit due to the high volume of lending in January. Government financing has significantly supported social financing, countering the negative impact of the slowdown in corporate and household credit. Notably, household credit in January-February reached a five-year low, raising concerns about the urgency to stabilize household credit [7][8] - Government financing has accelerated, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.69 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 1.10 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. This accounted for 75% of the new social financing, which rose to 8.20% [7][8] - The report indicates a marginal slowdown in credit issuance to enterprises and individuals, with new RMB loans in February totaling 650.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 326.7 billion yuan. The decline in corporate credit is attributed to the high lending in January and the accelerated pace of government debt management [7][8] - Future credit efforts may focus on optimizing structure, with an increased emphasis on stabilizing household credit. The government aims to support consumption and small businesses, as indicated by recent fiscal policies [7][8] - Monetary supply remains stable, with M2 and M1 growing by 7.0% and 0.1% year-on-year, respectively. The report notes that the tightening of funding rates has led banks to stabilize their interest margins, promoting rational loan pricing [7][8] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report emphasizes the positive impact of macroeconomic policies and the need to focus on stable dividends and recovery potential in the banking sector [3] Credit Market Trends - The report discusses the trends in credit issuance, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to support both corporate and household sectors [7][8] Government Financing - Government financing has played a crucial role in supporting social financing growth, with significant increases in bond issuance [7][8] Interest Rate Environment - The report suggests that the current monetary policy environment is relatively favorable for interest margins, with expectations of a less severe decline in margins compared to previous years [9] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [9]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 图表目录 | 图 1 全球主要大类资产周度表现， % . | | --- | | 图 2 中债美债周度表现，BP … | | 图 3 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅，%，… | | 图 4 原油价格，美元/桶 …………… ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾：3月14日当周，全球股市表现分化，美股继续调整，A股表现亮眼；主 要商品期货中黄金创新高，原油、铜上涨，铝收跌；美元指数小幅回落，日元贬值，欧元 和人民币小幅升 ...