[table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月03日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250103 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 zjk@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1.天合光能（688599）：大浪识英雄，组件龙头稳健跨越周期——公司深度报告 ➢ 2.非制造业超季节性走强，制造业价格指标继续走弱——国内观察：2024年12月PMI ➢ 3.1月投资策略及金股组合 ➢ 1.国务院总理李强：今年要继续实施好消费品以旧换新这一政策 ➢ 2.央行启动了第二次互换便利操作 正文目录 | 1. 重点推荐 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 | | --- | | 1.1. 天合光能 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月03日 [table_invest] 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -34% -22% -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 24-01 24-04 24-07 24-10 申万行业指数:汽车零部件(072802) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] EMB量产渐近，线控制动国产替代加速 ——汽车行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 深 度 汽 车 零 部 件 [table_product] ➢ 线控制动主要包括EHB、EMB和HBBW三大类。汽车制动系统分为驻车制动和行车制动 两大主要类型。其中，驻车制动主流方案为集成式EPB。行车制动系统由纯机械制动、液 压制动、电液制动系统向线控制动发展，而线控制动可分为液压式线控 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on integrated solutions across the solar energy value chain, including photovoltaic products, systems, and smart energy solutions [44][46] - The company has diversified its business model, contributing to its performance resilience, with significant growth in its distributed systems and energy storage segments [12][32] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing short-term supply-demand imbalances, but long-term demand growth remains intact, with industry self-discipline expected to facilitate capacity clearing [37][40] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a robust operational history of 27 years, with a diversified development strategy that has allowed it to navigate through various market cycles [9] - As of the end of 2024, the company reported a total share capital of 217.937 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.57% [10] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing short-term challenges due to overcapacity and price declines, but long-term demand is projected to grow, driven by global energy transition trends [58][65] - The report highlights the importance of industry self-regulation to address supply-demand imbalances and stabilize pricing [63][65] Business Segments - The company's revenue from its component business was 300.57 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 69.95% of total revenue, while the photovoltaic systems segment generated 108.46 billion yuan, representing 25.24% of total revenue [32] - The energy storage segment is expected to see rapid growth, with projected shipments of 5 GWh for the full year 2024 [12] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 429.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.26 billion yuan, down 85.14% year-on-year [28] - The company’s sales gross margin for the component business was 11.13% in H1 2024, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [57]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that博迈科 (603727) is experiencing a turnaround in performance due to the rising industry demand and the gradual release of orders, particularly in the FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) sector, which is expected to see stable and long-term investment growth from 2024 to 2028 with an anticipated addition of 48 new FPSO orders globally [7][8][30] - The company achieved a record high in new FPSO orders amounting to approximately 3.703 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a strong future performance rebound expected in 2025 due to the lagging effect of order signing on revenue and profit [8][30] - 博迈科 is also diversifying its operations by expanding into the LNG sector, with significant projects in Russia, which are expected to enhance its market recognition and order volume [29] Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic offshore wind market is rapidly developing, with 东方电缆 (603606) positioned as a leader in the submarine cable sector, having secured nearly 3 billion yuan in offshore cable projects in Europe since December 2020, primarily in the UK and Scotland [12][34] - The report anticipates that the offshore wind sector will see accelerated construction from 2024 to 2025, with a significant increase in project approvals and construction activities, particularly in coastal provinces [18][39] - The global demand for offshore wind cables is expected to remain strong, with a projected supply shortage in the submarine cable market until 2031, positioning China as a key player in alleviating this gap [33][34] Group 3: Financial Performance - The financial performance of 博迈科 shows steady growth, with a cumulative revenue of approximately 6.689 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.18%, and a net profit of about 932 million yuan, up 13.41% [12] - The report projects that 东方电缆 will achieve revenues of 8.858 billion yuan, 11.839 billion yuan, and 13.649 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits expected to reach 1.269 billion yuan, 1.922 billion yuan, and 2.376 billion yuan respectively [34]

Group 1: PMI Analysis - December manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1%, down from 50.3%[36] - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2%, up from 50.0%[36] - Manufacturing PMI seasonal decline is slightly better than the 5-year average of -0.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month change of -0.2 percentage points[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing PMI showed a strong seasonal increase of +2.2 percentage points, significantly above the 5-year average of 1.2 percentage points[3] - Construction sector contributed with a PMI of 53.2%, up by +3.5 percentage points, while the service sector PMI reached 52.0%, up by +1.9 percentage points[3] Group 3: Price Indicators - Main raw material purchase price index fell to 48.2%, down by -1.6 percentage points, while the factory price index dropped to 46.7%, down by -1.0 percentage points[11] - Price signals continue to weaken, indicating that demand stabilization still requires policy support[22] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-demand gap continues to narrow, with the production index decreasing by 0.3 percentage points to 52.1% and the new orders index increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%[27] - Import index rose significantly by 2 percentage points to 49.3%, marking the first time since February that it exceeded the new export orders index[27]

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Overweight" [4][13]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing positive effects from the "old-for-new" policy, with over 33 million consumers purchasing more than 52.1 million appliances as of December 19, 2024 [7]. - The white goods sector, particularly leading companies like Gree Electric and Midea Group, is expected to maintain stable profitability amidst market competition [5]. - The implementation of new energy efficiency standards is driving transformation in the home appliance industry, with over 90% of sales in energy-efficient products [11]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Focus on leading companies in the white goods sector, which are expected to perform well despite market fluctuations [5]. - The "old-for-new" policy is showing significant results, with a notable increase in sales across major appliance categories [7]. Industry Trends - The sales structure of home air conditioners is changing, with an increase in the market share of inverter and wall-mounted units [11]. - The electric bicycle industry is undergoing upgrades due to new safety standards, which may lead to increased market concentration [6]. Market Performance - The home appliance industry is projected to outperform the broader market index (CSI 300) by at least 10% over the next six months [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Weight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing high demand due to the "old-for-new" policy, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.692 million units from December 1-22, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and wholesale sales of 1.770 million units, up 30% year-on-year [12][31]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are particularly strong, with retail sales of 817,000 units, a 60% increase year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 913,000 units, up 56% year-on-year [12][31]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with companies like BYD and Ideal Auto making significant advancements in AI and smart driving technologies, aiming for L3 autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 [14][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - BYD has launched its "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" navigation feature nationwide, enhancing its smart driving capabilities across various models [12][38]. - Ideal Auto is accelerating its AI initiatives, with plans to implement L3-level autonomous driving by 2025, leveraging its AI assistant app [14][32]. 2. Secondary Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.36% this week, while the automotive sector increased by 0.69%, ranking 7th among 31 industries [12][40]. - Within the automotive sector, sub-sectors such as commercial vehicles and automotive parts showed varied performance, with commercial vehicles up by 3.36% [12][40]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks weekly data from the China Passenger Car Association, noting significant increases in both retail and wholesale sales for passenger and new energy vehicles [51]. - The report also includes tracking of raw material prices, which are crucial for automotive manufacturing [55]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like Yinlun Technology and Chuanhuan Technology indicate successful procurement orders, enhancing their market presence in specific sectors [68]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses recent developments such as Xiaomi's OTA updates for its vehicles and the completion of significant funding rounds by companies like Zhiji Auto, indicating ongoing innovation and investment in the sector [69].

Group 1: Company Overview - Anhui Heli (600761) is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer with a comprehensive industry chain and is actively expanding into global markets. The company has significant advantages in research and innovation, brand effect, and operational costs, ranking first in domestic sales and among the top ten globally in forklift sales [7][30]. - The global forklift market is experiencing stable growth, with sales increasing from 988,800 units in 2013 to 2,101,500 units in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.83%. Major players like Toyota, Kion, and Jungheinrich hold over 50% of the market share [7][30]. - Anhui Heli is enhancing its competitiveness by improving brand recognition, technological innovation, product quality, and cost-effectiveness, aiming to narrow the revenue gap with Toyota, which reported revenue of 130.66 billion yuan in 2023, with 82% from overseas markets [30]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The trend towards "lithium battery electrification and automation" is accelerating, with China's electric forklift sales reaching 194,800 units in 2023, accounting for 34.06% of total sales. The domestic lithium battery industry is leading globally, benefiting Anhui Heli significantly [8][30]. - The sales of domestic forklift mobile robots reached 19,500 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%, indicating a growing demand for automation in material handling [8][30]. - The automotive sector is also witnessing high demand, with NIO launching its new brand "Firefly" aimed at the high-end small car market, with the first model priced at 148,800 yuan and set to be released in April next year [12][32]. Group 3: Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance has been mixed, with the overall automotive market experiencing a decline of 1.05% recently. However, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in December are expected to increase by 15% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging vehicle trade-ins [32][33]. - NIO's new model, the ET9, is positioned as a smart electric flagship vehicle, showcasing advanced technology and features, which reflects the industry's shift towards higher-end electric vehicles [12][32]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stimulating demand for new energy vehicles, with significant trade-in subsidies contributing to the growth in sales [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry as a whole. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing a stable price trend due to orderly adjustments on the supply side, with lithium salt prices fluctuating and remaining under negotiation [20][31]. - The energy storage market continues to show strong demand, with significant project bidding and winning activity, indicating a robust growth trajectory [22][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Battery Sector**: - Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 1.4 million units in December, with a penetration rate of approximately 51.9%. The total sales for 2024 are projected to be 12.5 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of over 30% [5][19]. - Supply-side adjustments are leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and cathode materials [20][31]. - **Energy Storage Sector**: - The energy storage market remains vibrant, with 20 new bidding projects and 11 winning projects reported, totaling 7.19 GW/16.40 GWh in capacity [22][50]. - The domestic energy storage market has completed a total of 43.74 GW/149.71 GWh in procurement from January to November, with prices for energy storage systems hitting record lows [23][50]. 2. Market Performance - The battery sector saw an overall decline of 1.15% in the week of December 23-29, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.50 percentage points [34]. - Major inflows were observed in companies like Shanghai Electric and Jinpan Technology, while significant outflows were noted for CATL and Sunshine Power [34][29]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - **Lithium Battery Supply Chain**: - Prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate were reported at 71,900 CNY/ton and 76,400 CNY/ton, respectively [31]. - The average bidding price for energy storage EPC projects increased by 39.2% to approximately 1.33 CNY/Wh, while the average price for energy storage systems rose by 19.9% to about 0.64 CNY/Wh [50]. - **Material Prices**: - The prices for various battery materials, including cathode and anode materials, have shown stability, with specific prices reported for lithium iron phosphate and graphite materials [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the photovoltaic and wind power equipment sectors, with recent declines in stock performance compared to the broader market indices [25][28]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a stabilization in silicon material prices, with an increase in silicon wafer production rates. Major companies have raised their operating rates to 60% and 55% respectively, with integrated companies maintaining rates between 50%-60% [19][29]. - The wind power sector is witnessing a significant increase in new installations, with a reported 51.75 GW added from January to November 2024, marking a 25.03% year-on-year increase. The total expected new installations for 2024 could reach 94.90 GW [73]. - The implementation of the "single 30" layout requirement for new offshore wind projects is expected to streamline project approvals and accelerate the development of deep-sea wind projects [8][72]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with leading companies entering a low-load operation phase due to maintenance announcements [29][42]. - Silicon wafer prices are on the rise, with increased acceptance of new pricing for N-type G10L and G12 specifications [19][29]. - Battery cell prices remain stable, with some manufacturers adjusting production plans in response to market conditions [29][69]. - Module prices are stable, although there is price confusion in the distributed market, leading to continued downward pressure [43]. Wind Power Sector - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines has stabilized around 1451.5 RMB/kW, indicating the end of aggressive price competition [30]. - The report highlights significant progress in offshore wind projects, with over 1 GW of capacity connected to the grid in provinces like Liaoning, Guangxi, and Hainan [10][46]. - The demand for wind power equipment is expected to remain strong, with a projected increase in bidding and installation activities in 2025 [30][73]. Company Focus - Fulete, a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, is expected to benefit from its scale advantages and improved cash flow, enhancing its competitive position as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [6][70]. - Oriental Cable, a leader in submarine cables, has secured multiple offshore wind project contracts and is poised for growth as the offshore wind sector expands [6][74]. - Dajin Heavy Industry, a leader in offshore engineering equipment, is expected to see improved profitability due to its stable overseas business and successful project deliveries [33].