Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][30] Core Viewpoints - The consumer goods sector is showing structural prosperity, with traditional consumption revitalizing [5] - The report highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and innovating in products, channels, and marketing to stimulate consumption potential [5] - Investment opportunities are seen in the snack and beverage sectors, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels [5] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.84% this week, with leading stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) showing positive performance [5] - Moutai has announced a buyback progress, reinforcing market confidence, with a total buyback of 5.1 billion yuan, accounting for 0.2635% of total shares [5] - Future expectations include a recovery in the consumption environment supported by policies, with recommendations for high-end and next-tier liquor brands [5] Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.34% this week, with stocks like *ST Chuntian (+15.38%) and Youyou Food (+9.57%) performing well [5] - The report indicates a structural prosperity in consumer goods, driven by generational differences in spending intentions and the emergence of new consumption categories that meet emotional and health needs [5] - Companies that effectively innovate based on consumer insights are likely to unlock consumption potential [5] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with recommendations for leading firms such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Group [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The global TWS (True Wireless Stereo) headphone shipments reached 78 million units in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by manufacturers' expansion strategies in both regions and price segments [3][5][6]. - The global tablet computer shipments in Q1 2025 increased by 8.5% year-on-year to 36.83 million units, supported by the consumer market and educational sector's device upgrade cycles [3][10][11]. - The revenue of the top ten global packaging and testing companies is projected to reach $41.56 billion in 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [3][16][20]. - The average selling price of NAND Flash decreased by 15% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, with the revenue of the top five NAND Flash brands totaling $12.02 billion, a nearly 24% decline from the previous quarter [3][22][23]. - The global DRAM industry revenue in Q1 2025 amounted to $27.01 billion, showing a 5.5% quarter-on-quarter decline [3][27][28]. Summary by Sections TWS Headphones - Q1 2025 global TWS headphone shipments reached 78 million units, up 18% year-on-year, with Apple leading the market at 23% share, followed by Xiaomi with a 63% increase in shipments [5][6]. Tablet Computers - Q1 2025 global tablet shipments grew 8.5% year-on-year to 36.83 million units, with Apple holding a 37.3% market share, followed by Samsung and Xiaomi [10][11]. Packaging and Testing Industry - The top ten global packaging and testing companies are expected to generate $41.56 billion in revenue in 2024, with ASE Holdings leading at $18.54 billion [16][18][20]. NAND Flash Market - In Q1 2025, the average selling price of NAND Flash fell by 15%, with the top five brands generating $12.02 billion in revenue, a decline of nearly 24% from the previous quarter [22][23][24]. DRAM Market - The global DRAM industry revenue in Q1 2025 was $27.01 billion, down 5.5% from the previous quarter, with SK Hynix and Samsung being the top players [27][28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with a strong outlook for domestic substitution in China's semiconductor sector and growth potential in the AI industry. Recommended companies include Hengxuan Technology, Dinglong Co., Zhaoyi Innovation, and others [3][40][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The insurance companies leverage their comparative advantages to establish benchmarks in the CCRC industry, focusing on high-end customer operations [4] - The report highlights the diverse participants in the elderly care industry, including real estate companies, insurance companies, specialized elderly service operators, and foreign enterprises, each playing distinct roles [7] - Insurance companies are identified as the main investors in elderly care communities, benefiting from policy support, funding, and customer resources [13] Summary by Sections 1. Diverse Participants and CCRC Promotion - The elderly care real estate sector includes four main types of participants: real estate companies, insurance companies, specialized elderly service operators, and other investors [7] - Insurance companies have significant advantages in policy, funding, and customer resources, making them the primary investors in elderly care communities [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration between insurance companies and real estate firms to optimize investment and service delivery [7] 2. Case Study: Taikang Home - Taikang Home operates under a heavy asset model, focusing on building high-quality CCRC communities [18] - As of April 2025, Taikang has established 43 projects across 36 cities, with a total planned area of approximately 4.94 million square meters, accommodating over 86,000 elderly individuals [26] - The occupancy rate of mature communities is notably high, with over 16,000 residents currently living in Taikang's facilities [26][29] 3. Case Study: China Pacific Insurance Home - China Pacific Insurance Home targets different age segments with three types of CCRC communities, investing a total of 17 billion yuan [4] - As of July 2023, it has launched 15 self-operated elderly care projects across 13 cities, with 9 already in operation [4][14] - The expected annualized return rate is projected to exceed 5.5% over 50 years [4] 4. Case Study: Taiping Life Enjoyment - Taiping Life combines heavy and light asset models, with 78 communities covering 27 provinces and 64 cities as of February 2025 [4] - The community model includes both self-owned and third-party cooperative facilities, aiming for nationwide coverage [4][17] - The profitability model involves external leasing, with a focus on comprehensive service offerings [4] 5. Investment Trends - Insurance funds are actively participating in the investment and construction of elderly care communities, with a total planned investment of 900 billion yuan and actual investment of 446 billion yuan as of Q3 2020 [14] - The number of commercial insurance community projects increased from 105 in 2022 to 129 in 2023 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information for the U.S. Treasury bond market is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Over the past decade, the U.S. Treasury bond market has experienced multiple liquidity events. The vulnerability of the U.S. Treasury bond market stems from changes in the market intermediary system and the investor structure, both of which are long - term influencing factors. This indicates that the current market ecosystem of U.S. Treasury bonds is more fragile than it was a decade ago. If the supply - demand pattern of U.S. Treasury bonds changes unfavorably, such as a short - term concentrated supply or increased market volatility due to policy uncertainties, liquidity risks may re - emerge [3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Contents Market Intermediary System Changes - The market - making system in the secondary market of U.S. Treasury bonds has weakened. Since the 2008 financial crisis, overseas regulations have become stricter. The market - making ability of primary dealers, mostly affiliated with bank - holding companies, is restricted by capital requirements. The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) in 2014 limited the expansion ability of primary dealers' balance sheets and their intermediary business related to Treasury bonds. Compared with the rapid expansion of the U.S. Treasury bond stock, the growth of primary dealers' Treasury bond intermediary business has been slow, and the proportion of their total Treasury bond positions and financing scale in the balance of outstanding Treasury bonds has decreased [3][6]. - Principal Trading Firms (PTFs) that engage in high - frequency trading have emerged and assumed some market - making functions. However, PTFs have small amounts of their own funds, are less regulated, have high leverage, and rarely hold overnight positions. They can only provide intraday liquidity and cannot fully replace traditional dealers [3][6]. Investor Structure Changes - Since 2013, as countries diversify their reserve assets, the proportion of overseas official investors with low price sensitivity in U.S. Treasury bond holdings has declined, while the proportion of mutual funds with leverage and redemption pressure in U.S. Treasury bond holdings has increased. As of Q4 2024, the proportion of broad - based mutual funds (including money market funds and ETFs) in U.S. Treasury bond holdings has risen from about 9% in 2011 to about 19% [3][12]. - Asset management institutions' increasing use of derivatives has led to profitable arbitrage opportunities between U.S. Treasury bond cash and futures, attracting hedge funds to participate in basis trading (long cash bonds and short futures) with high leverage. As of May 2025, hedge funds hold 8 million net short contracts of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a notional risk exposure of over $1 trillion, accounting for about 3.6% of the outstanding U.S. Treasury bonds. In times of high market volatility, these high - leverage and homogeneous basis trades may be forced to close, triggering a liquidity tightening spiral [3][15].

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows resilience with industrial production and high-tech manufacturing growing steadily, with April's industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing up by 10.0% [12][13] - Fixed asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising by 8.8% and infrastructure investment by 10.9%, while real estate investment decreased by 10.3% [13][14] - Retail sales in April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting consumption, particularly in the areas of trade-in programs and cultural entertainment [13][14] Domestic Market Review - In May, the A-share market performed steadily, with alternating dominance between large and small caps, and a focus on technology and consumer sectors [5][8] - The bond market showed a warming trend in liquidity, but long-term bonds faced pressure, with the yield curve steepening [5][8] June Outlook - The outlook for June indicates a favorable environment for capital markets due to the easing of trade tensions and the gradual implementation of internal policies, which are expected to inject certainty into the domestic economy [5][8] - A-Share market is anticipated to oscillate around a high central tendency, with structural opportunities in domestic technology and high-end manufacturing supported by consumption policies [5][8] Fixed Income Market - In May, the fixed income market continued to show a warming trend, but overall performance was weak, with a focus on the central bank's coordination with liquidity [5][8] Currency Market - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, supported by a weak dollar and stable domestic policies, with expectations of changes in the foreign exchange market [5][8] Overseas Market - The US stock market is likely to continue its oscillating pattern due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and ongoing tariff negotiations, while the bond market may face challenges in further declines in yields [5][8] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience fluctuations, supported by positive domestic fundamentals and policies, but facing valuation pressures from high US bond yields [5][8] Commodity Market - Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, influenced by easing trade tensions and delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical uncertainties may provide support [5][8] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain volatile, with demand needing further observation [5][8] - Oil prices are expected to rise due to improved macro sentiment, although supply constraints may limit upward movement [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies in the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, and industrial software, indicating a low valuation advantage for Hong Kong stocks [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid penetration and disruption of traditional industries by new productive forces represented by artificial intelligence and other technologies, promoting high-quality economic development in China [3]. - It emphasizes the comparative advantages of China in fields like innovative biopharmaceuticals, showcasing the potential for international market presence [3]. - The report recommends continued attention to sectors benefiting from supportive policies, including innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer-oriented traditional Chinese medicine [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61%, with a total market turnover of 82.799 billion [1]. - The report notes a net inflow of funds into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, amounting to 484 million, with specific inflows from both Shanghai and Shenzhen [1]. Market Outlook - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, as well as innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer goods [3]. - It mentions the strong performance of certain companies, such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, which has seen an 87.8% increase since the beginning of the year [3]. Company Information - The report provides insights into specific companies, such as China Resources Pharmaceutical, which is positioned as a leading pharmaceutical manufacturer and distributor in China, with a projected revenue of 257.673 billion for 2024 [10]. - The company is expected to see a stable growth in net profit, with projections of 4.07 billion and 4.45 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a low valuation compared to its earnings [10].

证券研究报告 "核心区+好产品"率先止跌回稳，重申 关注中线布局 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：核心区及好房子率先止跌回稳逐步被验证及市场接受。本周受端午假期影响，重点50城新房备案口径成交环比降33.4%，尽 管短期成交存在波折，但随着核心城市核心区供需格局改善，叠加过去限价带来的优质住房相对稀缺，"核心区+好产品"正率先止跌 回稳。随着半年末房企加大营销力度及优质房源供应，预计短期成交环比有望恢复上行，但同比由于上年高基数或小幅下滑。 短期结构性复苏有望延续，中期为产品力与拿地能力的竞争。当前市场主要担忧在于：1）核心区供给有限、年内诞生多个"地王"， 房企能否获取充足货量及保障利润率；2）随着好房子供应增加，是否会步入新的价格战，进而影响去化或利润率。我们认为短期无需 过度担忧：1）主要房企销售规模及利润较高点已明显回落，边际增量优质项目带来业绩弹性较大；2）当前高价地主要集中核心城市 核心区，供应仍相对有限，且得益于限价放开与得房率提升，预计去化率有望维持高位。中期将是产品力、拿地能力的 ...

证券研究报告 "核心区+好产品"率先止跌回稳，重申 关注中线布局 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 地产行业周报 核心摘要 2 周度观点：核心区及好房子率先止跌回稳逐步被验证及市场接受。本周受端午假期影响，重点50城新房备案口径成交环比降33.4%，尽 管短期成交存在波折，但随着核心城市核心区供需格局改善，叠加过去限价带来的优质住房相对稀缺，"核心区+好产品"正率先止跌 回稳。随着半年末房企加大营销力度及优质房源供应，预计短期成交环比有望恢复上行，但同比由于上年高基数或小幅下滑。 短期结构性复苏有望延续，中期为产品力与拿地能力的竞争。当前市场主要担忧在于：1）核心区供给有限、年内诞生多个"地王"， 房企能否获取充足货量及保障利润率；2）随着好房子供应增加，是否会步入新的价格战，进而影响去化或利润率。我们认为短期无需 过度担忧：1）主要房企销售规模及利润较高点已明显回落，边际增量优质项目带来业绩弹性较大；2）当前高价地主要集中核心城市 核心区，供应仍相对有限，且得益于限价放开与得房率提升，预计去化率有望维持高位。中期将是产品力、拿地能力的 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [66] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is marginally improving, which is expected to elevate the price center of industrial metals [4] - For precious metals, particularly gold, the resilience of the U.S. labor market is anticipated to support a long-term bullish trend for gold, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3][6] - In the copper market, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities [6] - The aluminum sector is expected to see prices rise due to a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic demand anticipated to grow under supportive policies [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.54% to $3,331 per ounce as of June 6 [3] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 934.2 tons, indicating a stable demand for gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Industrial Metals Copper - As of June 6, LME copper futures rose by 1.8% to $9,670.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 148,800 tons, reflecting a slight increase [5] - The LME copper inventory stood at 132,400 tons, showing a positive trend in demand resilience [5] Aluminum - LME aluminum futures increased by 0.1% to $2,451.5 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 504,000 tons, indicating a slight decrease [5] - The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, supporting price stability [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors due to their favorable market conditions [6] - Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [6]