证券研究报告 中国ICT支出稳定增长， 全球AI PC渗透加速 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师：付强 S1060520070001（证券投资咨询） 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： FUQIANG021@pingan.com.cn GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 2025年3月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评： 1）根据IDC数据，预计2028年中国ICT市场规模有望增长至7517.6亿美元。其中，从企业视角来看， 2024年中国企业级ICT市场规模约2693.6亿美元，相较2023年增长11.7%。2）根据Canalys数据，2024年，全球AI PC占 PC总出货量比例达17%，其中，苹果以54%的市场份额处于全球市场首位，其次为联想和惠普，市场份额各占12%。分季 度来看，2024年第四季度全球AI PC出货量达1540万台，环比18%，占总货量23%。3）根据TrendForce数据，2024年第四 季度全球DRAM产业收入达到286亿美元，环比增加9.9%，其中，三星以39.3%的市占率位列全球 ...

策略配置研究 2025 年 2 月 28 日 策 略 报 告 策 略 动 态 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 告 策略动态跟踪 2025 年两会前瞻：总量&行业联合解读 "两会"政策前瞻：预计总量政策延续积极，结构聚焦扩内需/新质生产力。 2025 年全国"两会"政策有望延续 2024 年中央经济工作会议基调。①经 济目标：预计 2025 年全国 GDP 目标设定在 5%左右，持平上年；就业目 标或保持稳定，失业率目标定在 5.5%左右或以内，城镇新增就业人数 1200 万人左右或以上；物价目标预计从 3%下调至 2%。②货币政策：预计延续 "适度宽松"的基调，2025 年全年预计降准 2 次、降息 30-50BP，节奏 上，降准可能落在政府债供给较大的月份，降息则需要关注内外部的约束 演绎的节奏，关注国内银行净息差、财政发力节奏和汇率，以及海外货币 政策情况。③财政政策：预计延续"更加积极"的基调，2025 年预算内赤 字率预计从 3%提升至 4%，赤字规模为 5.7 万亿，较 2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching 466 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.21%, and net profit of 144 million yuan, up 40.62% year-on-year [4][7]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with increased demand from downstream customers, leading to enhanced product upgrades and R&D efforts [7][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and increasing R&D investment in automotive electronics, with successful launches of various new chips [10][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 466 million yuan, with a growth rate of 44.21% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be 144 million yuan, reflecting a 40.62% increase [4][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 55.48%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 30.99%, a slight decrease of 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [7][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.00 yuan per 10 shares and increase capital reserves by issuing 3 additional shares for every 10 shares held [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 710 million yuan in 2025, 1.047 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.483 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 52.4%, 47.4%, and 41.7% [6][11]. - Net profit is projected to reach 223 million yuan in 2025, 332 million yuan in 2026, and 477 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 54.7%, 48.5%, and 44.0% respectively [6][11]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched a series of high-performance chips for automotive applications, including video bridge and processing chips, which have been adopted by several well-known automotive manufacturers [8][10]. - The automotive chip and system solutions division was established to focus on various automotive electronic applications, enhancing the company's market share in this sector [10][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, which is expected to benefit from multiple factors in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The TCM sector is anticipated to experience a gradual reduction in performance pressure in 2025, driven by factors such as improved earnings, favorable policies, decreasing costs, rising demand, and consolidation within the industry [4][6]. - The report identifies five main investment opportunities within the TCM sector, including high-end OTC products, state-owned enterprise reforms, hospital-based TCM, dividend-paying assets, and turnaround situations for struggling companies [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - The TCM sector faced overall revenue decline in 2024, with a total revenue of 270.61 billion yuan, down 3.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.88 billion yuan, down 8.55% year-on-year [10]. - The number of companies forecasting negative net profit growth in 2024 is 22 out of 34, while only 12 companies expect positive growth [16]. 2. Policy Developments - The third batch of national TCM procurement results showed an average price reduction of 63%, but the impact on listed companies is limited due to the small number of affected products [20]. - A new essential drug list is expected to be released in 2025, which may include more TCM products, enhancing their market presence [24]. 3. Cost Factors - The TCM material price index has been declining since July 2024, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for TCM companies and improve their gross margins starting in 2025 [28]. 4. Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in flu cases has driven demand for related treatment products, leading to a quicker clearance of inventory for cold and cough medications [34]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The TCM industry is experiencing frequent mergers and acquisitions, which are likely to enhance industry concentration and provide performance flexibility for related listed companies [39]. 6. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights five key investment themes: 1. High-end OTC TCM products, particularly those using natural bezoar as a key ingredient, are expected to see improved margins as supply stabilizes [45][54]. 2. State-owned enterprise reforms are anticipated to yield positive changes in management and strategic planning [7]. 3. Hospital-based TCM products are expected to gain market share due to regulatory support [7]. 4. Companies with strong cash flow and high dividend potential are viewed favorably [7]. 5. Companies currently facing challenges are expected to improve as inventory pressures ease [7]. 7. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Kunming Pharmaceutical, Tongrentang, Darentang, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, China Resources Sanjiu, Yunnan Baiyao, Tianshili, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].

证券研究报告 3月十大金股推荐 平安证券研究所 2025年2月28日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 0 核心观点 我们认为随着国内宏观层面和科技产业的积极因素累积，市场有望保持向上方向不变，建议重点关注国产AI与自主可控主线 （TMT/机械等），以及更多政策支持和产业转型方向（创新药/AI+消费等）。一方面，2月召开的2025年民营企业座谈会提振 市场信心，3月全国两会政策定调预计将继续重视"全方位扩大国内需求""以科技创新引领新质生产力发展"的方向，目前 各省地方政府工作报告重点支持"人工智能+"、高端制造、低空经济、生物技术、量子科技等战略性新兴和未来产业发展。另 一方面，AI引领的全球科技创新仍在持续，国产AI/智能驾驶等科技领域利好催化不断，全球资金对中国科技资产的评价也出现 了积极转变。不过，特朗普政策仍有较多不确定性，需防范海外关税与制裁风险的扰动。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：A股行业分类为申万一级行业，本篇报告数据统计截至2025/2/27 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE 推荐逻辑 （亿元） (TTM) 000977.SZ 浪潮信息 计算机 925 40 布局 ...

策略配置研究 2025 年 2 月 28 日 告 策略动态跟踪 2025 年两会前瞻：总量&行业联合解读 "两会"政策前瞻：预计总量政策延续积极，结构聚焦扩内需/新质生产力。 2025 年全国"两会"政策有望延续 2024 年中央经济工作会议基调。①经 济目标：预计 2025 年全国 GDP 目标设定在 5%左右，持平上年；就业目 标或保持稳定，失业率目标定在 5.5%左右或以内，城镇新增就业人数 1200 万人左右或以上；物价目标预计从 3%下调至 2%。②货币政策：预计延续 "适度宽松"的基调，2025 年全年预计降准 2 次、降息 30-50BP，节奏 上，降准可能落在政府债供给较大的月份，降息则需要关注内外部的约束 演绎的节奏，关注国内银行净息差、财政发力节奏和汇率，以及海外货币 政策情况。③财政政策：预计延续"更加积极"的基调，2025 年预算内赤 字率预计从 3%提升至 4%，赤字规模为 5.7 万亿，较 2024 年提升 1.6 万 亿；地方新增专项债规模有望上升 6000 亿元到 4.5 万亿；特别国债规模 预计为 2 万亿，较 2024 年增加 1 万亿。④地产政策：预计继续聚焦"促 进市场 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a deficit rate of 4%-4.5% for 2025, with new special bond issuance potentially expanding to CNY 4.5-5 trillion, aimed at supporting key projects [2][8] - The fiscal measures are expected to generate an incremental deficit of CNY 2.5 trillion to counter potential external shocks, such as a 60% tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods [2][8] - The implementation of a "zero-based budgeting" approach is expected to gain traction in 2025, enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness [2][8] Group 2: Company Overview - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold and non-ferrous metal mining, with projects in China, Southeast Asia, and West Africa, holding a rich gold resource base [3][10] - The company reported a gold resource reserve of 1.27 billion tons and a metal resource amount of approximately 454 tons as of 2023 [3][11] - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are CNY 91.02 billion, CNY 106.19 billion, and CNY 114.04 billion, with net profits expected to be CNY 17.86 billion, CNY 21.23 billion, and CNY 23.02 billion respectively [3][13] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Roche - Roche's 2024 revenue reached CHF 604.95 billion (approximately USD 688.92 billion), marking a 7% year-on-year increase [4][14] - The pharmaceutical segment generated CHF 461.71 billion (approximately USD 525.80 billion), an 8% increase, while the diagnostics segment saw revenues of CHF 143.24 billion (approximately USD 163.12 billion), up 4% [4][14] - Roche anticipates maintaining single-digit sales growth in 2025, with a high single-digit growth rate for EPS [4][14] Group 4: Key Product Performance - Roche - Roche's oncology segment generated CHF 237.44 billion in 2024, reflecting a 7% increase, while the ophthalmology segment experienced a significant 44% growth, driven by the rapid uptake of the product Faricimab [4][15] - The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio in breast cancer treatment, with the product Itovebi expected to gain EU approval in the first half of 2025 [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600988.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-quality gold mining enterprise with a strong growth trajectory, benefiting from its cost advantages and increasing gold production [8][9] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in gold prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. government debt risks and central bank gold purchases [9][56] Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Advancement of an International Gold Mining Company - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates in gold and non-ferrous metal mining, with a comprehensive industry chain from exploration to mining and processing [17] - The company has a significant resource advantage with a total gold resource of 1.27 billion tons and 454 tons of gold metal resources as of 2023 [37] - The company's gold business generated 63.22 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for over 87% of total revenue [22] 2. Rich Gold Mining Resources and Growth Potential - The company has a robust domestic gold mining portfolio and is expanding its overseas projects, particularly in Laos and Ghana [51] - The domestic gold mines are located in key mineralization belts with high-grade ore and significant exploration potential [38] 3. Clear Long-term Trends with Expected Gold Price Increases - The report highlights that the uncertainty of U.S. policies under the Trump administration may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, supporting its price [60] - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, further solidifying its status as a hard currency [9][56] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 91.02 billion yuan, 106.19 billion yuan, and 114.04 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - Corresponding net profits are expected to be 17.86 billion yuan, 21.23 billion yuan, and 23.02 billion yuan for the same years [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant advancements in its research and development efforts in 2025, with multiple important milestones anticipated [1][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.869 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 12.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 184 million yuan, also down by 12.35% year-on-year [3][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 707 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.35% and a net profit increase of 122.29% [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 28.69 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 33.41 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 184 million yuan in 2024 to 271 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 47.4% [5][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 47.1% in 2024 to 47.8% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to increase from 6.4% to 8.1% [5][11]. Research and Development Focus - The company increased its R&D investment to 431 million yuan in 2024, a rise of 37.67%, with 86.62% of this investment directed towards nuclear medicine research [6][9]. - Several IND applications and approvals are anticipated in 2024, with key products nearing critical development stages [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its nuclear medicine capabilities, collaborating on isotope production projects and enhancing its clinical research and development platforms [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic investments in production and distribution, with a total of 21 operational positron emission drug facilities [9].

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2024, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate was only 2.7%, significantly below the budgeted 7.9%, resulting in a shortfall of 1.96 trillion CNY[5] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to reach 4%-4.5%, with a new special bond issuance scale potentially expanding to 4.5-5 trillion CNY[3] - The government plans to increase special bonds for "two new" and "two heavy" projects to 1.3 trillion CNY in 2025[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 reached 30-50 basis points, but the central bank has delayed these cuts due to concerns over exchange rate stability[3] - The central bank's monetary policy remains tight, with interbank liquidity showing a balanced state, reducing the urgency for monetary easing[3] - The central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate while managing capital outflows, leading to a complex decision-making environment[3] Economic Growth and Challenges - The anticipated fiscal measures are expected to counteract potential external shocks, such as a 60% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports, which could impact GDP by 0.8-0.9 percentage points[3] - The focus for 2025 will be on optimizing expenditure structure to enhance social welfare, promote consumption, and support employment[3] - The government will emphasize the importance of local government financial health and the balance between risk prevention and growth stabilization[3]