Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,362.11, down 0.79%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,051.97, down 1.21% [4] Macro Insights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasized high-quality development and deepening financial reform and opening up, with key speeches from leaders of major financial institutions discussing global financial governance and the challenges facing the international monetary system [6][7] - The report highlighted the need for a diversified cross-border payment system and the importance of a robust global financial safety net to address regulatory fragmentation and emerging financial risks [6][7] Industry Commentary: Biopharmaceuticals - The report provided updates on the innovative drug HLX43, which has shown significant anti-tumor efficacy in early clinical trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with an overall response rate (ORR) of 36.8% in phase Ia and 38.1% in phase Ib [11][13] - HLX43 is a novel antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) targeting PD-L1, demonstrating a favorable safety profile with low hematological toxicity, supporting its potential for first-line therapy and combination treatment [11][13] Industry Commentary: Communications - AMD showcased its Helios ultra-node cabinet, indicating advancements in AI infrastructure, while East Mountain Precision announced plans to acquire Source Photonics, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the optical communication sector [12][14][16] - The report noted that the optical communication industry is experiencing a trend of mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on integrating upstream capabilities to enhance competitive advantages [16] Company Analysis: Jiao Cheng Ultrasound - Jiao Cheng Ultrasound reported a significant turnaround in performance, with a 2024 revenue of 585 million yuan, up 11.3%, and a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 29.04% [17] - The company is benefiting from strong growth in its automotive and semiconductor businesses, driven by trends in energy storage and electric vehicles, with expectations for continued revenue growth in the coming years [17][18] - The report forecasts a net profit of 130 million yuan for 2025, representing a 54.9% year-on-year increase, with a projected EPS of 1.2 yuan [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-B" for the biopharmaceutical industry [1][10]. Core Insights - HLX43, a novel PD-L1 ADC candidate developed by Junshi Biosciences, shows significant anti-tumor efficacy in NSCLC based on preliminary results from Phase I clinical trials [3][5]. - The drug combines a fully human IgG1 anti-PD-L1 antibody with a novel linker-topoisomerase inhibitor payload, achieving a drug-to-antibody ratio (DAR) of approximately 8 [3]. - HLX43 demonstrates a dual mechanism of action, providing both targeted cytotoxicity and immune modulation, which may enhance its therapeutic potential [3][5]. Summary by Sections Clinical Trial Results - In the Phase I trial, HLX43 was administered to 21 patients with a median prior treatment line of 2 and 3 for Ia and Ib phases, respectively [4]. - The overall response rate (ORR) for the Ia phase was 36.8%, while the Ib phase at 2.0 mg/kg showed an ORR of 38.1% [5]. - The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 4.2 months for Ia and 5.4 months for Ib [5]. - Adverse events were primarily low-grade, with grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events (TRAE) occurring in 28.6% and 42.9% of patients in Ia and Ib phases, respectively [5]. Future Development - HLX43 is currently in over seven Phase II clinical trials exploring its synergistic anti-tumor effects in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors [6]. - The drug has shown promising results across various NSCLC subtypes, including those with and without EGFR mutations and brain/liver metastases [6]. - HLX43 is positioned as a leading global PD-L1 ADC candidate, potentially addressing issues of non-response or resistance to PD-1/L1 therapies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][41]. Core Insights - AMD has launched the MI350 series GPUs and showcased plans for the MI400 series, intensifying competition among the "AI Triad" in North America [2][14]. - The data center AI accelerator market is projected to grow over 60% annually, reaching $500 billion by 2028, with inference market growth expected to outpace training [2][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing valuation recovery in the overseas computing chain, driven by improved earnings confidence for 2026 and a return of value funds [3][15]. - The GTC Paris summit emphasized the importance of sovereign AI and industrial cloud as significant growth areas for computing power in Europe [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies within the computing power supply chain, particularly in edge computing and endpoint devices [5][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - AMD's MI350 series features 185 billion transistors and 288GB HBM3e, with performance improvements over the MI300 series exceeding 100% [2][14]. - The MI350X and MI355X GPUs demonstrate up to 35 times the inference performance of the MI300X [2][14]. - The report notes that the European market is becoming a key area for AI deployment, with significant investments in sovereign AI systems [4][15]. Mergers and Acquisitions - East Mountain Precision announced plans to acquire Source Photonics for up to $629 million, indicating a trend of consolidation in the optical communication sector [5][16][17]. - Source Photonics reported a revenue of 2.93 billion and a net profit of 400 million for 2024, with a 32% year-on-year growth in Q1 revenue [7][17]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with the communication index dropping by 0.78% [8][18]. - The optical module sector showed resilience with a weekly increase of 3.12%, indicating strong performance amidst broader market challenges [8][18].

Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The People's Bank of China emphasizes active participation in improving global financial governance amid challenges to the US dollar's dominance[1] - The report identifies four key issues: international monetary system, cross-border payment system, global financial stability system, and governance of international financial organizations[2] - The international monetary system may evolve towards a few competing sovereign currencies due to inherent instability in a single sovereign currency system[2] Group 2: Financial Regulation and Policy - Challenges in global financial stability include fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight in emerging areas like digital finance[2] - The report advocates for a robust global financial safety net centered around the International Monetary Fund to maintain regulatory consistency[2] - Future monetary policy will focus on gradual transformation and innovation in structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai[3] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The financial regulatory authority plans to replicate successful practices from free trade zones to enhance foreign investment participation in financial services[5] - Emphasis on improving the capital market's inclusivity and adaptability to support technological and industrial innovation[6] - Five measures proposed to deepen capital market reforms include enhancing the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and fostering long-term capital[6] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The report highlights the importance of a stable foreign exchange market for high-quality economic development, with measures to monitor cross-border capital flows[7] - Policies to support high-quality development include enhancing foreign exchange services for key sectors and establishing evaluation mechanisms for foreign exchange management[8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in recent quarters, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor markets, with projections for continued revenue growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 585 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 29.04% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 148 million yuan, reflecting a 22.35% year-on-year growth, and a staggering net profit increase of 2152.47% [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, reaching 64.91% in Q1 2025, driven by a favorable product mix [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive wire harness connector business is experiencing strong growth, with revenue from ultrasonic equipment for wire harnesses reaching 81.34 million yuan in 2024, a 352.37% increase [5]. - The semiconductor business is also poised for rapid growth, with revenue from ultrasonic equipment reaching 46.93 million yuan in 2024, a 195.66% increase, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [5]. - The accessories and consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 70.45% in 2024, with a gross margin improvement to 75.93% [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 133 million yuan in 2025, 203 million yuan in 2026, and 289 million yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54.9%, 52.9%, and 42.2% respectively [10][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase to 1.15 yuan in 2025, 1.76 yuan in 2026, and 2.50 yuan in 2027 [10][12].

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural decline in prices across the photovoltaic industry, particularly in battery cells, modules, and polysilicon, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels in Europe [4][5][6] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the short term, with expectations of continued price declines in battery cells and modules due to low terminal demand and overstocking [4][5] - Key companies recommended for investment include Aiko Solar, Longi Green Energy, and others focusing on new technologies and supply-side improvements [4][6] Market Trends - The average price of N-type battery cells (182-183.75mm) is reported at 0.240 CNY/W, down 2.0% from the previous week, while the price for 182*210mm N-type battery cells remains stable at 0.265 CNY/W [4] - The average price of 182mm TOPCon double-glass modules is stable at 0.68 CNY/W, with a notable premium for BC modules [4] - The price of photovoltaic glass has decreased, with 3.2mm coated glass priced at 19.5 CNY/㎡, down 2.5% [4] Polysilicon and Wafer Prices - The average price for dense polysilicon is reported at 35.0 CNY/kg, remaining stable, while granular silicon has decreased by 1.4% to 34.0 CNY/kg [5] - The average price for N-type wafers (182-183.75mm) is stable at 0.93 CNY/piece, while the price for 182*210mm wafers has decreased by 1.9% to 1.05 CNY/piece [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies to actively monitor include Xinyi Solar, GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and others, focusing on various strategic directions such as overseas expansion and domestic substitution [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new investment opportunities in the 3D printing sector, particularly driven by the popularity of LABUBU, which is expected to boost demand for PLA materials [7][9][10] - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity prices, particularly in the energy sector, and suggests that these tensions may lead to increased volatility in oil and gas prices [10][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and employment data, which are expected to influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6][10] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,387.40, down 0.04% [4] - The new materials sector experienced a 0.68% increase, outperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.47% [9] - The report notes a significant drop in coal imports, with a 17.75% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating a tightening supply [17][20] Industry Commentary Chemical Raw Materials - The report indicates that the demand for PLA is set to rise due to the popularity of LABUBU, which has sparked interest in 3D printing [7][9] - The prices of key materials such as amino acids and vitamins remained stable, with some minor fluctuations noted [9] Power Equipment and New Energy - The report discusses advancements in smart elderly care robots and their potential applications in various settings, highlighting a strategic partnership between Kepler and Hanwei Technology Group [10] - The report also mentions the National Energy Administration's initiatives to explore off-grid hydrogen production, which could reshape the energy landscape [10] Basic Chemicals - The report notes that the contract price for potassium fertilizer has increased to $346 per ton, up from $273 per ton last year, reflecting rising global commodity prices [12][14] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may disrupt the supply of certain chemicals, particularly those imported from Iran and Israel [14][15] Coal - The report highlights a slight increase in coal production, with a total output of 1.985 billion tons from January to May, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase [17] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in coal prices during the summer, driven by seasonal demand [20] Home Appliances - The report indicates that the home appliance sector is transitioning from explosive restocking to stable demand, with export growth slowing [21][22] - Rising shipping costs are impacting the industry, with significant increases in freight rates observed across various shipping routes [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of PLA and those benefiting from the growth of the 3D printing market, such as Haizheng Biomaterials and Jindan Technology [7][9] - In the coal sector, companies like Shanxi Coal International and Jincheng Anthracite Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in a recovering market [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the home appliance sector, particularly those with strong dividend yields and limited downside potential, such as Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances [22]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: JumpModel **Construction Idea**: JumpModel extends the traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) by introducing jump processes to better capture abrupt market state changes, addressing the limitations of smooth state transitions in HMM[13][14][15] **Construction Process**: 1. In HMM, the state transition probability is defined as: $ P(S_{t}|S_{t-1})=P_{i j},\quad S_{t},S_{t-1}\in\{1,2,...,K\} $ Here, $ P_{ij} $ represents the transition probability from state $ i $ to state $ j $[13] 2. JumpModel introduces a jump process to account for abrupt changes: $ P(S_{t}|S_{t-1},J_{t})=(1-\lambda)P_{i j}+\lambda Q_{i j} $ Where $ \lambda $ controls the probability of jump events, and $ Q_{ij} $ represents the transition probability under jump conditions[14][15] 3. Observed variables in JumpModel are modeled with higher variance to capture extreme events: $ Y_{t}|S_{t},J_{t}\sim{\mathcal{N}}{\big(}\mu_{S_{t}}+J_{t},\sigma_{S_{t}}^{2}+\sigma_{J}^{2}{\big)} $ This allows the model to better respond to market shocks and tail risks[16][17][19] **Evaluation**: JumpModel improves responsiveness to market volatility and extreme events, making it more adaptive during rapid market changes compared to HMM[19] - **Model Name**: XGBoost **Construction Idea**: XGBoost leverages ensemble learning to enhance prediction accuracy, particularly in high-dimensional and multi-feature datasets[4][31] **Construction Process**: 1. Features used for training include asset-specific return characteristics (e.g., EMA, Sortino ratio) and macroeconomic indicators (e.g., VIX index, bond yield curve)[32] 2. Preprocessing techniques such as exponential moving averages and log differences are applied to stabilize data and extract key signals[31][32] 3. Default parameters are used to avoid overfitting and ensure generalization across different market environments[34] **Evaluation**: XGBoost demonstrates robust predictive performance, balancing complexity and reliability without requiring extensive parameter tuning[34] - **Model Name**: Mean-Variance Optimization **Construction Idea**: This model dynamically adjusts portfolio weights based on predicted market states to optimize the trade-off between risk and return[5][42] **Construction Process**: 1. Objective function: $ \text{max } \mu - \text{risk} - \alpha \times |w - w_{\text{pre}}|_1 $ Where $ \mu $ represents expected returns, $ \text{risk} $ denotes systematic risk exposure, and $ \alpha |w - w_{\text{pre}}|_1 $ accounts for transaction costs[43] 2. Constraints: $ 0 \leq w \leq w_{\text{max}} $ 3. Covariance matrix is used to model risk transmission and asset interdependencies[43] 4. Rolling window approach is applied for iterative training and validation, ensuring adaptability to market changes[30][43] **Evaluation**: The model effectively balances risk and return, dynamically reallocating weights based on market predictions[45] --- Model Backtesting Results - **JumpModel**: - Annualized return: 6.37%[5] - Information ratio (IR): 0.58[5] - **XGBoost**: - Performance in Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index: Successfully avoided major downturns and captured upward trends during backtesting from 2018 to 2025[35][37] - Performance in CSI 500 Index: Higher trading frequency observed due to increased volatility, leading to potential higher transaction costs[39][41] - Performance in long-term bond index: Lower trading frequency due to stable bull market conditions, effectively capturing upward trends[41][44] - **Mean-Variance Optimization**: - Annualized return: 6.37%[49] - Information ratio (IR): 0.58[49] - Sharpe ratio: 1.50 (2022)[55] - Maximum drawdown: 13.9% (2021)[55] - Volatility: 12.9% (2020)[55] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Jump Intensity Parameter ($ \lambda $) **Construction Idea**: $ \lambda $ determines the sensitivity of JumpModel to market state transitions, balancing responsiveness and stability[20] **Construction Process**: 1. High $ \lambda $ values suppress frequent state transitions, enhancing stability in low-volatility environments[20] 2. Low $ \lambda $ values increase responsiveness to abrupt market changes, suitable for trend reversal scenarios[20] 3. Rolling window cross-validation is used to optimize $ \lambda $ based on Sharpe ratio maximization[30] **Evaluation**: Proper tuning of $ \lambda $ ensures adaptability to varying market conditions, reducing false signals while capturing key transitions[30] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Jump Intensity Parameter ($ \lambda $)**: - Performance in Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index: - $ \lambda = 10 $: Frequent short-term signal generation[22] - $ \lambda = 30 $: Balanced responsiveness and stability[25] - $ \lambda = 50 $: Focused on long-term trends, reduced noise sensitivity[28]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coal industry has improved, leading to a rebound in the secondary market performance [4] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal reached 1.985 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with May's production at 403 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5] - The demand side is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.7% year-on-year, manufacturing investment up 8.5%, and infrastructure investment up 5.6% [4] - Coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a decline in the average prices of various coal types since the beginning of 2025 [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, raw coal supply showed a slight increase, while coal imports decreased significantly, with a cumulative import volume of 18.867 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [5][7] - The demand for non-electricity sectors is stronger than that for electricity, with thermal power cumulative growth at -3.1% and coke cumulative growth at 3.3% [4][5] Price Trends - The average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal has decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a downward trend in coal prices [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the coking coal sector such as Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, while for thermal coal, companies like Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 China potash fertilizer sea freight import contract has been finalized at a price of $346 per ton CFR, which is an increase of $73 per ton compared to last year's price of $273 per ton CFR. This price is $3 per ton lower than the new contract price signed by India. The contract signing was in line with market expectations and is expected to enhance supply chain security for potash fertilizer, supporting agricultural stability and national food security [4][12][23]. - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, which may affect the supply of certain chemical products imported from Iran. The report suggests monitoring products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, such as polyethylene, methanol, and potassium chloride [5][13][23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Market - The report highlights the completion of the potash fertilizer import contract and the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices. The contract price for potash fertilizer is set at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [4][12]. - The report also provides data on China's chemical imports from Iran and Israel, indicating that polyethylene and methanol are among the top imported products from Iran, while potassium chloride is significant from Israel [5][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Sinochem Fertilizer: Potential benefits from policy dividends related to state reserve management. 2. Yara International: Expected to benefit from high prices due to low-cost resources and high certainty in expansion. 3. Products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, including polyethylene, methanol, sulfur, potassium chloride, and bromine [6][23]. Market Performance - The report includes performance metrics for various chemical sectors, noting that textile chemical products, compound fertilizers, and inorganic salts have shown the highest weekly increases, while viscose and other chemical raw materials have seen declines [18][19]. - Key companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Sinochem Fertilizer and China Petroleum, have also shown positive market performance, with notable weekly increases [21][22].