化学纤维 分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 行业景气低迷拖累业绩，尼龙行业龙头产 业布局不断完善 ——神马股份(600810)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(首次) 市场数据(2025-03-25) | 收盘价(元) | 8.48 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 8.86/5.68 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,932.30 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.24 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 85.25 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.84 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 0.31 | | 毛利率(%) | 11.19 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 0.47 | | 资产负债率(%) | 59.83 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 101,510.11/100,527.5 | | | 1 | 盈利能力方面，原材料己二腈和氢气采购单价分别下 跌 7.68%和 15.44%，精苯和苯酚采购单价上涨 10.86%和 3.02%。原 ...

分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 行业景气低迷拖累业绩，尼龙行业龙头产 业布局不断完善 ——神马股份(600810)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(首次) 化学纤维 市场数据(2025-03-25) | 收盘价(元) | 8.48 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 8.86/5.68 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,932.30 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.24 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 85.25 | | 基础数据(2024-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.84 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 0.31 | | 毛利率(%) | 11.19 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 0.47 | | 资产负债率(%) | 59.83 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 101,510.11/100,527.5 | | | 1 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 联系人：李智 | | | 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 26 日 事件：公司公布 20 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 26 日 投资要点： zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 机器人汽车行业领涨 A 股小幅整理 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：能源电力行业领涨 A 股小幅整 理》 2025-03-25 《市场分析：银行有色行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2025-03-24 联系人： 李智 ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（03 月 26 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中股指在 3382 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中机器人、光伏设备、汽车以及有色金属等行业表现较好； 船舶制造、银行、保险以及采掘等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈 现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周三震荡回落，创业板成 分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周三 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上 行，盘中股指在 3382 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡，盘中机 器人、光伏设备、汽车以及有色金属等行业表现较 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -15% -10% -5% 1% 6% 11% 17% 22% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,369.98 | -0.00 | | 深证成指 | | 10,649.08 | -0.43 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,932.30 | -0.06 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,773.13 | -0.09 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,946.95 | -0.37 | | 中证 | 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has turned around its performance year-on-year, achieving a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan, a 24.43% increase, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery [4][11]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to higher sales volume and prices in the pig farming business, alongside a decrease in breeding costs [4][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting confidence in its development [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 41.17 billion yuan, a 47.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery [4]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached 37.54 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 279.50% year-on-year [4]. Industry Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to see a dual increase in supply and demand in 2025, with the average price of pigs rising above the industry cost line [8]. - The scale of pig farming is projected to exceed 70% in 2024, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [8]. Cost Management - The company's breeding costs have decreased to approximately 12.9 yuan/kg as of February 2025, down from around 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [8]. - The slaughtering segment has shown improvement, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to about 50 yuan in 2024, achieving profitability in December [9]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a pig output of 72 million to 78 million heads in 2025, with a projected net profit of 20.55 billion yuan [11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.76 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.26 [11].

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 1、博鳌亚洲论坛旗舰报告指出，联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织 等国际机构普遍预计，今明两年世界经济将企稳甚至重新扩张。根据论坛 研究院的测算，2025 年亚洲经济增速预计将增至 4.5%，中国、印度等亚 洲经济体仍将保持 5%以上的较高增速。 分析师：张刚 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -15% -10% -5% 1% 6% 11% 17% 22% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,369.98 | -0.00 | | 深证成指 | | 10,649.08 | -0.43 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,932.30 | -0.06 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover from performance declines due to impairment and expense growth, with a projected revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.83% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.49% year-on-year, primarily due to increased research and development expenses and asset impairment [5]. - The MDI market is anticipated to recover, driven by limited global capacity growth and increased demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and automotive [8]. - The company's ethylene projects are expected to enhance profitability in its petrochemical business due to cost advantages over traditional oil routes [8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new projects in fine chemicals and new materials, ensuring future growth potential [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 13.03 billion yuan, and basic earnings per share (EPS) of 4.15 yuan [5]. - The average prices for key raw materials such as pure benzene and propane have shown fluctuations, impacting overall profitability [5][6]. Market Outlook - The MDI industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with price increases noted in 2025, which may improve industry profitability [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its new materials business, with several projects set to launch in 2024, including a 20,000-ton POE and 48,000-ton citral facility [9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 4.15 yuan and 5.39 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.76 and 14.45 based on the closing price of 67.06 yuan [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover from performance declines due to impairment and expense growth, with a projected revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.83%. However, net profit is anticipated to decline by 22.49% to 13.03 billion yuan [5][10]. - The MDI market is expected to recover, driven by limited global capacity growth and increased demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and automotive [8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new projects, ensuring future growth, particularly in fine chemicals and new materials, with significant investments in various projects [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.49% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is projected at 4.15 yuan [5][10]. - The average price of key raw materials such as pure benzene increased by 14.49% year-on-year, while the prices of other materials showed mixed trends [5][6]. Market Outlook - The MDI industry is expected to see a recovery due to limited new capacity and increased demand from sectors benefiting from policy changes [8]. - The company's ethylene projects are anticipated to enhance profitability in its petrochemical business, leveraging cost advantages over traditional oil routes [8]. Growth Potential - The company is expanding its new materials business, with projects like 20,000 tons of POE and 48,000 tons of citral set to launch in 2024, contributing to rapid growth [9]. - Future projects include polyurethane upgrades and expansions in ethylene and POE production, which will support long-term growth [9].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 能源电力行业领涨 A 股小幅整理 ——市场分析 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周二（03 月 25 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指平 开后震荡上行，盘中股指在 3376 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中电力、光伏设备、煤炭以及化学原料等行业表现较好；船 舶制造、通信服务、互联网服务以及计算机设备等行业表现较弱， 沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡 回落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周二 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指平开后震荡上 行，盘中股指在 3376 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡，盘中电 力、光伏设备、煤炭以及化学原料等行业表现较好；船舶制造、通 信服务、互联网服务以及计算机设备等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平 均市盈率分别为 14.32 倍、37.58 倍，处于近三年中位数平均水 平，适合中长期布局。两市周二成交金额 12878 亿元 ...

分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 证券Ⅱ zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 2 月回顾及 3 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 25 日 -13% -3% 7% 17% 27% 37% 48% 58% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 11723 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场波动导致证券行业基本面改善的程度不及 预期；2.股价短期波动风险；3.资本市场改革的政策效果不及预期 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共11页 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 ⚫ 券商板块 2025 年 2 月行情回顾：2 月券商指数整体处于横向窄幅 震荡整理，重心相较 1 月有所提高。中信二级行业指数证券Ⅱ全 月上涨 2.22%，跑赢 ...