Group 1 - The report highlights the evolving framework of the US tariff policy post the "8.1 deadline," categorizing countries into three tiers based on their agreements with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% [2][12][13] - The average effective tariff in the US has increased significantly from 2.3% to 8.75% as of May 2025, indicating a trend of rising tariffs across various sectors [3][18][19] - Key industries affected by the tariff changes include automotive, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals, which have reported substantial financial impacts due to the tariffs [31][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that US companies are primarily responding to tariffs through passive measures, such as withdrawing or cutting guidance, with 69 companies in the US taking such actions [31][33] - In contrast, companies in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are more likely to take proactive measures, such as price hikes, with 64 companies in that region responding in this manner [32][34] - The consumer goods sector has seen the highest frequency of price increases, particularly in footwear and apparel, with notable price adjustments reported by major retailers [43][44]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) showcased the acceleration of AI applications, indicating a shift from technological breakthroughs to large-scale applications, with system integration and industry collaboration being key variables for unlocking AI value [10][12] - Meta's Q2 revenue reached $47.52 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by AI-optimized advertising, with daily active users on Facebook reaching 3.48 billion [19] - Microsoft's Q4 revenue hit $76.4 billion, a 17% increase, with Azure's revenue reaching $75 billion, marking a historical high, driven by cloud migration and AI applications [21][23] - Apple's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations at $94 billion, a 10% increase, with strong performance in iPhone and Mac sales, supported by consumer subsidies in China [24][28] Summary by Sections WAIC and AI Applications - WAIC 2025 highlighted the transition of AI towards large-scale applications, with over 200 embodied intelligent robots showcased, indicating advancements in autonomous capabilities [10][12] - Tencent's report on AI trends emphasized the evolution of AI from a tool to a symbiotic partner, with significant implications for various industries [18] Company Performance - Meta's advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, with AI technology significantly enhancing ad conversion rates [19] - Microsoft's Azure revenue grew by 39%, with expectations for continued high growth driven by AI demand [21][23] - Apple's strong performance was attributed to robust iPhone sales and a recovery in the Chinese market due to subsidies [24][28] PCB and CoWoP Technology - CoWoP technology is expected to reduce costs by 30%-50% compared to traditional substrates, with a shorter production cycle of 6-12 months, facilitating rapid response to AI device demand [36][37] - The transition to CoWoP presents challenges in terms of technical requirements and yield rates, but it is seen as a potential game-changer for high-end PCB demand [33][36] Panel Industry - The demand for panels is slowing, with price adjustments expected, but leading companies like BOE and TCL are showing resilience [38][41] - BOE has become the leading supplier of foldable OLED screens, surpassing Samsung Display [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a sales revenue of 3.224 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.80% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.56% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 486 million yuan, up 32.03% year-on-year and 4.74% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 797 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.31% [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 1.763 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.73% [2] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 36.78%, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.20 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.22 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 16.90%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.26 percentage points [2] Business Segments - The company is actively involved in the automotive electronics market, achieving revenue of 327 million yuan in Q2 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 19.33% [3] - The consumer electronics segment focuses on miniaturization and integration of components, where the company holds a leading position in high-precision inductors [3] - The company is also capitalizing on opportunities in AI applications, particularly in data centers and autonomous driving, with a focus on energy-saving product combinations [3] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.051 billion yuan for 2025, 1.282 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.561 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in emerging markets and new product lines, with a projected revenue growth rate of 23.49% for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's core product, SKB264, is positioned as a promising ADC targeting TROP2, with significant clinical trial progress and potential for commercialization [1][14]. - SKB264 has shown superior efficacy in various clinical settings, particularly in NSCLC, outperforming competitors in terms of mPFS [2][24]. - The collaboration with Merck enhances the global development strategy for SKB264, indicating strong commercial potential [1][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Collaboration and Clinical Development - The company has partnered with Merck to develop SKB264, which is currently in multiple Phase III clinical trials for various indications, including NSCLC and triple-negative breast cancer [14][15]. - SKB264 is recognized as a candidate with "blockbuster potential" by Merck, reflecting confidence in its market value [16]. Section 2: Efficacy in NSCLC - In the first-line treatment of wild-type NSCLC, SKB264 demonstrated a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 15.0 months, significantly better than other TROP2 ADCs [2][24]. - In patients with PD-L1 TPS ≥1%, the mPFS reached 17.8 months, showcasing its effectiveness in this subgroup [2][24]. - SKB264 also exhibited promising results in EGFR-mutated NSCLC patients, with a notable reduction in tumor size compared to standard treatments [3][36]. Section 3: Future Potential and Market Position - The report highlights the potential of combining next-generation immunotherapy with ADCs, positioning SKB264 as a key player in this evolving treatment landscape [4][19]. - The competitive landscape for TROP2 ADCs is intensifying, with SKB264 among the leading candidates, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming clinical data [19][21]. Section 4: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected revenues of 2.084 billion, 2.876 billion, and 4.663 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2027, with a projected net profit of 561 million CNY [5].

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The A-share market saw significant gains in July, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices rising by 5.26% and 8.14% respectively, while the Wind Micro Index increased by nearly 8.78% [2] - The central bank's net fund injection in July was 268 billion yuan, maintaining stable liquidity, with the rate gradually falling to around 1.55% by the end of the month [2] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, closing at 100.05 on July 31, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 3.39%, while the yuan depreciated by 0.73% during the same period [2][27] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - As of August 1, the bond market vitality index rose by 13 percentage points to 49%, indicating increased trading activity [3][28] - Fund buying sentiment has become more cautious, with net buying intensity in the bond market led by foreign institutions and other product categories [3][28] - The growth of wealth management products in July was significantly weaker than seasonal trends, with an actual increase of only 274.1 billion yuan compared to an expected 1.87 trillion yuan [3][28] Group 3: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - The motorcycle export market presents three unique attributes: overseas sales potential is over ten times that of the domestic market, with key markets being Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of global capacity [7][35] - The global market for 250cc+ motorcycles is approximately 3.6 million units, with the overseas market space being nearly ten times that of the domestic market, focusing on Europe and Latin America [7][35] - In the European market, the motorcycle market size is about 1.84 million units, with a significant preference for high-displacement models, providing an opportunity for Chinese brands to expand their market share [7][36] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Recent events, including a downward revision of U.S. non-farm payrolls and personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, are expected to drive gold prices upward [19] - The downward revision of non-farm employment data indicates a weakening economic backdrop, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold's financial attributes [19] - The potential for a shift in U.S. monetary policy due to recent personnel changes could further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [19]

灰犀牛与反脆弱 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置月观察 海内外政策要闻 政治局会议研究下半年经济工作。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议认为，今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中 央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。会议强调，要落实落 细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 国常会通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》。会议指出，当前人工智 能技术加速迭代演进，要深入实施"人工智能+"行动，大力推进人工智能规模 化商业化应用，充分发挥我国产业体系完备、市场规模大、应用场景丰富等优势， 推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合，形成以创新带应用、 以应用促创新的良性循环。 特朗普签署行政令落地新一轮"对等关税"。当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普 签署行政令，拟对尚未与美方达成协议的国家或地区（包括加拿大、巴西等）征 收10%至41%不等的对等关税，并明确所有关税将自2025年8月7日正式生效。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（7.28-8.1）海外政策聚 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market has significant potential, with overseas sales space being over ten times that of the domestic market. The core markets are Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of the global total capacity. Domestic brands have undergone a qualitative transformation in product strength over the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, expected to accelerate from 1 to 10 [2][3] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global motorcycle market has a total capacity of 61.8 million units, with 3.59 million units in the 250cc+ segment, resulting in a penetration rate of 5.8% [4][5] European Market - The European motorcycle market is approximately 1.84 million units, with a focus on high-capacity models. The 250cc+ segment is projected to reach 1.08 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate close to 60%. The market is currently dominated by Japanese and European brands, but Chinese brands are expected to gain market share due to competitive pricing and improved product quality [6][30][36] North American Market - The North American motorcycle market has a total capacity of about 6.88 million units, with approximately 500,000 units in the U.S. market, primarily favoring models over 600cc. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to account for 90% of the market, with limited participation from Chinese companies [6][30] Latin American Market - The Latin American motorcycle market has a capacity of 6.26 million units, with a significant demand for larger displacement motorcycles due to geographical and climatic factors. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to have a penetration rate of 8%, with projected sales of around 500,000 units [6][30] Asian Market - The Asian motorcycle market has a total capacity of 47.55 million units, with a 250cc+ penetration rate of 2.8%. The demand for larger displacement motorcycles is expected to grow, particularly in regions with a large motorcycle base [6][30] Domestic Brand Performance - The three listed companies, Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, have a combined overseas market share of less than 5% in the 250cc+ segment. Their export volumes for 2024 are projected to be 6.7, 5.3, and 4.0 million units respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [11][15][29] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for 250cc+ motorcycles is characterized by rapid growth in exports, with domestic brands expected to increase their market share significantly. The current overseas market share for Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang is 2.08%, 1.65%, and 1.24% respectively, indicating substantial room for growth [15][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent shift in the national stance on compliance antimony export controls since July is expected to alleviate the primary factors suppressing antimony prices over the past three months, leading to a potential price increase driven by marginal demand recovery [1][4]. - Antimony prices have experienced four phases of decline and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing price movements [2][14]. - The crackdown on smuggling has made significant progress, and the easing of antimony export management is anticipated to restore export volumes [3][24]. Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - The strength of export demand has become a critical factor in determining antimony prices since the implementation of export controls in September 2024 [13]. - Antimony prices fell from 161,000 CNY/ton to approximately 140,000 CNY/ton between September and November 2024 due to reduced export demand and capacity cuts in photovoltaic glass [14]. - A recovery in export demand and photovoltaic installations from February to April 2025 led to a rapid price increase from 144,000 CNY/ton to 236,000 CNY/ton [14]. Progress in Smuggling Crackdown - The significant price gap between domestic and international markets has stimulated smuggling activities, with the price difference expanding from 28,000 CNY/ton to approximately 200,000 CNY/ton post-export controls [3][19]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat strategic mineral smuggling, resulting in a drastic decline in export volumes from 800 tons/month to 225 tons and 138 tons in May and June 2025, respectively [3][26]. - The easing of export management in July 2025 is expected to enhance compliance and restore export volumes, with expectations of recovery in August and September [4][24]. Data Analysis - The marginal supply-demand balance for antimony is projected to reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [5][27]. - The analysis indicates that August and September 2025 may serve as a turning point for marginal demand, with expected exports recovering to 500 tons and 900 tons, respectively [30]. - The marginal demand is anticipated to shift from -82 tons in August to +249 tons, continuing to improve in September [30]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to related stocks in the antimony sector, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead [31].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three significant events in early August that may drive gold prices upward: a downward revision of non-farm employment data, a key resignation at the Federal Reserve, and political interference in employment statistics [2][3][4] - The downward revision of July's non-farm employment figures to 73,000, below the expected 110,000, along with substantial downward adjustments to previous months' data, reflects a weakening economic backdrop and raises expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for gold's financial attributes [3] - The resignation of a hawkish Federal Reserve member and changes in employment data leadership raise concerns about the independence of monetary policy, potentially leading to a loss of credibility in economic data and a favorable environment for gold prices [4] Summary by Sections Non-Farm Employment Data - July's non-farm employment added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [2][3] - The report notes a structural divide in employment growth, with private sector jobs increasing only by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve could mirror historical instances where political pressures compromised monetary policy independence, potentially leading to stagflation [4] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve for the September meeting surged from under 40% to nearly 90% following the employment data release [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gold sector, recommending attention to companies such as China National Gold International, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold mining industry [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market experienced significant fluctuations, and institutional behavior adjusted accordingly. After a series of market movements, the "chasing up" behavior of trading desks became more cautious, and the allocation desks showed differentiation without forming a joint force [8]. - The bond market vitality index increased. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [1][9]. - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was significantly weaker than the seasonal average. The scale of bond funds also had a notable decline in its month - on - month growth rate, while the month - on - month growth rate of stock funds was larger [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Increase - The bond market vitality index is compiled based on the historical percentile levels of bond market leverage, turnover rate, bond fund duration, and the implied tax rate of government bonds since 2022 and their correlation with the bond market trend. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [9]. - Indicators of increasing bond market vitality include the trading volume of 10Y government bond active bonds/balance of 9 - 10Y government bonds, inter - bank bond market leverage, median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, and 1 minus the implied tax rate of 10 - year government bonds. Indicators of decreasing bond market vitality include the turnover rate of 30Y government bonds [1][11][12]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: After Repeated Market Fluctuations, Funds' Bullish Sentiment Became More Cautious 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In the cash bond market last week, the order of net buying strength was: overseas institutions and others > other product types > insurance > wealth management > money market funds > funds. The order of net selling strength was: city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > securities firms > rural financial institutions. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying strength was: insurance > wealth management > funds > other product types, and the order of net selling strength was: large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks > overseas institutions and others [19]. - Currently, the main bond types for various institutions are: large - scale banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; rural commercial banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; insurance focuses on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds focus on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; wealth management has no obvious main bond type; other product types focus on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds [2][24]. 3.2.2 Trading Desks: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Extended Duration, Credit Bond Funds Shortened Duration, and High - Performing Bond Funds Had Smaller Duration Adjustments - As of August 1st, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 4.39 years compared to July 25th. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds were 5.67 years, 5.43 years, and 3.95 years respectively, with changes of +0.98 years, +0.86 years, and - 0.47 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds were 6.79 years and 4.75 years respectively, with changes of - 0.39 years and +0.19 years [2][41]. 3.2.3 Allocation Desks: Wealth Management Continuously Extended Duration, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Arranged Ultra - Long Bonds - In the primary market, the subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased last week. In the secondary market, large - scale banks' cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was higher than the same period last year; rural commercial banks' cumulative net purchase of cash bonds this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1 year, but their net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds was higher than the same period in previous years; insurance's net purchase of cash bonds and its ratio to premium income were significantly higher than in previous years, mainly because of the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds; wealth management continued to increase the duration of its net - purchased cash bonds in the secondary market, reaching the highest level since February 23, 2024 [3][55][79]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: The Increase in Wealth Management Scale in July Was Significantly Weaker than the Seasonal Average - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was weaker than the seasonal average. The actual month - on - month increase was 274.1 billion yuan, while the estimated increase based on the average month - on - month growth rate of the past four months was 1.87 trillion yuan. The month - on - month growth rate of bond fund scale declined significantly in July, while that of stock funds was larger. Last week, the net value of various types of bond funds increased significantly, but they still recorded overall negative returns in the past month [4][90][98].