2025 年 03 月 17 日 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 双融日报 --鑫融讯 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 86 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：算力、机器人、RISC-V 1、算力主题：据媒体报道，我国全面启动"东数西算" 工程已满 3 年，三大运营商、数据中心服务商以及相关产业 链企业积极跟进，多领域发力，各地新型数字基础设施加速 建设，全国一体化算力体系加快形成。据 2024 中国算力大会 数据，我国在用算力中心机架总规模超 830 万标准机架，算 力总规模达 246EFLOPS，位居全球第二。据统计，2024 年我 国数字经济增加值占 GDP 比重已超过 45%，其中算力相关产 业 贡 献 了 约 三 分 之 一 的 增 量 。 相 关 标 的 ： 众 合 科 技 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur and sulfuric acid, suggesting continued attention on the crude oil, titanium dioxide, and tire sectors [1][5]. - The report notes that while many chemical sub-sectors have underperformed due to capacity expansion and weak demand, certain sectors like tires, upstream mining, and titanium dioxide have exceeded expectations [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in specific sub-sectors that exhibit strong cost advantages and stable competitive landscapes [20][21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - International oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent decreases in gasoline and diesel prices in local markets [21][22]. - The report indicates that downstream demand remains weak, impacting various chemical markets, including propane and polyethylene [25][27]. - The report suggests that the tire industry, upstream mining, and titanium dioxide sectors are expected to perform well in the upcoming demand season [20][21]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in sulfur (up 16.44%) and sulfuric acid (up 12.86%), while natural gas saw a decline of 8.22% [19][20]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of price trends across various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][21]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report lists key companies to watch, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and others, highlighting their potential for valuation recovery [20][21]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2025 are provided for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for many [8].

2025 年 03 月 16 日 智元灵犀 X2 与 GO-1 大模型亮相，Figure BotQ 推动机器人商业落地 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：林子健 | S1050523090001 | | --- | --- | | linzj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 行业相对表现 | | 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) 9.2 12.0 32.9 沪深 300 1.9 -0.7 10.0 市场表现 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：Figure 发布 VLA 大模型 HeHelix，尊界 S800 首 发六大智能化技术》2025-02-23 2、《汽车行业周报：宇树、Figure 迎新进展，比亚迪天神之眼开创全 民智驾时代》2025-02-17 3、《汽车行业深度报告：丝杠方法 论（二）：兵马已动，磨床先行》 2025-02-16 ▌北京人形机器人创新中心正式发布通用具身智能 平台，全球首次直播展示机器人多任务操作 3 月 12 日，北京人形机器人创新中心（国家地方共建具身智 能机器人创新中心）在京发布了全球首个"一脑多能"、 "一脑多机"的通用具身智能平台"慧思开物"。 全 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 北方华创拟受让芯源微 9.49%股份，激光雷达龙 头禾赛科技公布财报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：高永豪 S1050524120001 gaoyh7@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子(申万) | 3.9 | 8.8 | 41.9 | | 沪深 300 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1 、 《 电 子 行 业 周 报 ： 通 用 型 AIAgent"Manus"横空出世，阿里 推出 QwQ-32B 全新推理模型》2025- 03-10 2、《电子行业周报：关注昇腾产业 链及存储料号涨价》2025-03-04 3、《电子行业周报：阿里巴巴资本 开支大增，Figure 与 1x 新款人形机 器人分别亮相》2025-02-23 ▌上周回顾 3 月 10 ...

- The report highlights the effectiveness of "reversal factors" and "short-term prosperity expectation factors" in the current market environment, with a focus on industries like food and beverage, textiles, and non-ferrous metals[2][15][24] - The "liquidity factor" is recommended with a 30% weight, emphasizing the flow of funds into sectors such as media, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage, while sectors like telecommunications and machinery remain underperforming[17][30] - The "long-term prosperity expectation factor" is described as a proxy for prosperity investment, showing stable effectiveness and recommended with a 30% weight, focusing on industries like non-ferrous metals and steel[21][30] - The "short-term prosperity expectation factor" is noted for its strong rebound in pure long positions, attributed to better-than-expected consumption policies, with a 20% weight allocated[24][30] - The "momentum-reversal factor" is transitioning towards long-term reversal, with a focus on industries like coal, oil, and transportation for long positions, and sectors like automobiles and media for short positions[27][30] - The "quality-profitability factor" includes nine sub-factors such as ROE, total asset return, and gross profit margin, serving as a proxy for corporate profitability quality[52][53][54] - The "quality-safety factor" includes five sub-factors like quick ratio and asset-liability ratio, representing financial safety metrics[46][47][48] - The "growth factor" is detailed with 16 sub-factors, including metrics like revenue and net profit growth, to capture stock growth attributes[40][41][42] - The "value factor" comprises three sub-factors: dividend payout ratio, dividend yield, and P/E ratio, representing value investment styles[57][58][59] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of "quality-profitability" and "value" factors in the current market, driven by expectations for Q1 earnings and consumption policy pricing[5][32][35]

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 鑫选ETF组合新高， 推荐关注消费ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年3月16日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 4. 市场表现复盘 PAGE 3 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 0 1 推 荐 关 注 消 费 E T F 1.1 鑫选ETF绝对收益策略 鑫选ETF策略样本外表现出色 数据来源：wind，华鑫证券研究 PAGE 5 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周市场成交依旧活跃，宽基指数中上证50和中证红利表现靠前，科创50跌幅较大- 1.76%，风格上大盘、红利占优。恒生科技收跌-2.59%，哑铃策略另一端港股高股息占优+1.38%。一级 行业中内需及顺周期大涨，科技主线回调，食品饮料、煤炭、有色、非银涨幅靠前，电子、计算机调整。 生育补贴政策密集出台，表征政策从前期过度关注制造业企业向关注居民部门需求、提振内需的 ...

—汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：林子健 | S1050523090001 | | --- | --- | | linzj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 行业相对表现 | | 2025 年 03 月 16 日 智元灵犀 X2 与 GO-1 大模型亮相，Figure BotQ 推动机器人商业落地 ▌智元灵犀 X2 正式亮相，GO-1 大模型进一步带动 机器人通用性上升 3 月 10 日，智元发布首个通用具身基座大模型 GO-1 （Genie Operator - 1），并于 3 月 11 日正式推出新一代人 形机器人 "灵犀 X2"。 GO-1 大模型使用全 新 ViLLA（Vision-Language-Latent- Action）架构，该架构通过多模态大模型（VLM）与混合专 家系统（MoE）的协同，主要亮点包括：1）跨模态学习：融 合视频与示范数据，提升人类行为理解精度；2）小样本泛 化：零/少样本适应新场景，大幅度降低部署成本；3）一脑 多形：通用策略模型可以适配多形态机器人，实现群体智能 升级；4）持续进化：数据回流闭环驱动模型迭代，动态增强 性能。在五项标准任务测试中，GO ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 北方华创拟受让芯源微 9.49%股份，激光雷达龙 头禾赛科技公布财报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：高永豪 S1050524120001 gaoyh7@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子(申万) | 3.9 | 8.8 | 41.9 | | 沪深 300 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1 、 《 电 子 行 业 周 报 ： 通 用 型 AIAgent"Manus"横空出世，阿里 推出 QwQ-32B 全新推理模型》2025- 03-10 2、《电子行业周报：关注昇腾产业 链及存储料号涨价》2025-03-04 3、《电子行业周报：阿里巴巴资本 开支大增，Figure 与 1x 新款人形机 器人分别亮相》2025-02-23 ▌上周回顾 3 月 10 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 国产GLP-1出海值得期待 医药行业周报 | 投资评级： | 推荐 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025年03月16日 | 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1 . 2025年创新药对外授权持续火热，中国企业出海迎来收获期 2025年全球新药BD依然保持火热，据DealForma数据显示，2024年约31%的大型跨国药企引进的创新药候选分子来自中国， 2025年1~2月中国创新药BD项目已达16项，并且合作的领域也从肿瘤等热门方向延伸至自免等新方向。NewCo等新模式也 获得了海外资金的支持，中国企业也积极尝试。虽然全球创新药医药并购交易在下降，但中国医药创新药的并购却持续活 跃，对外授权数量保持持续增长，一方面中国创新药研发持续迭代，持续高效补充研发梯队，为对外授权提供持续的种子。 另一方面，海外MNC并购更趋精明谨慎，但也面临中国创新药加入全球竞争的大环境，对中国创新药的项目保持持续的关 注。目前与中国企业合作的项目以临床早期品种为主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The global new drug business development (BD) remains robust, with approximately 31% of innovative drug candidates introduced by multinational pharmaceutical companies in 2024 coming from China. In the first two months of 2025, there have already been 16 Chinese innovative drug BD projects, expanding from oncology to autoimmune diseases [3]. - The weight loss market is seeing multiple BD agreements, with significant sales figures reported by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk's core products generated sales of approximately $27.94 billion in 2024, while Eli Lilly's Mounjaro saw a 124% year-on-year increase in sales to $11.54 billion [5]. - CAR-T cell therapy continues to progress, with global sales expected to reach approximately $4.53 billion in 2024. Chinese companies are also participating in the global CAR-T sales, indicating their technological capabilities [6]. - The gene sequencing industry is accelerating its domestic production capabilities following export restrictions on Illumina's sequencing instruments. Domestic alternatives are rapidly emerging, with several companies receiving regulatory approvals for their sequencing devices [7]. - AI in healthcare is advancing, with various AI models being developed for specific medical fields. Collaborations between tech companies and healthcare providers are enhancing the integration of AI into traditional medical practices [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.18 percentage points in the past week, with a weekly increase of 1.77% [23]. - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.22 percentage points, with a monthly increase of 1.94% [27]. Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical commercial sector saw the highest weekly increase of 6.44%, while the medical device sector had the lowest at 1.09% [30]. - Over the past year, the chemical pharmaceutical sector had the highest increase of 6.49%, while the biological products sector experienced a decline of 17.62% [37]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in weight loss and NASH, such as Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and highlights the potential of companies like Geli Pharmaceutical and Lianbang Pharmaceutical [12]. - Companies engaged in CAR-T technology, such as Kexin Pharmaceutical, are also recommended as they approach market entry [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI integration in medical devices, recommending companies like Anbiping and RunDa Medical for their competitive advantages [12]. Recent Developments - The report notes significant recent financing and regulatory approvals for various companies, indicating a dynamic and evolving market landscape [54][55].