[Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 49 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024 年经营稳健，看好新业态推进--安踏体育/服装家纺(02020/213502) 点评报告（港股美股） 用户数高增，市场份额有望持续提升--途虎-W/汽车服务(09690/212803) 点评报告（港股美股） 鹏鼎控股(002938.SZ)深度报告：AI 端侧浪潮开启在即，PCB 龙头显著受益--鹏鼎控股/元件(002938/212702) 公司 PPT 报告 成本持续优化，出栏高速增长--巨星农牧/养殖业(603477/211107) 公司点评 哪些涨价细分领域可以重点关注--策略 PPT 超长债性价比究竟如何--债券研究周报 业绩增速亮眼，结构持续优化--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 盈利能力大幅提升，产品加速下沉&出海--布鲁可/文娱用品(00325/213605) 点评报告（港股美股） 大单品持续放量，电商渠道加速弯道超车--百亚股份/个护用品(003006/217701) 公司点评 腾势 N9、二代哈弗枭龙 MAX 上市，马斯克召开特斯拉全员大会--行业周报 2024 年业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 47.0% in Q4 2024, driven by its IP strategy and strong performance in the overseas direct sales market [6][7] - Total revenue for 2024 reached 169.9 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% in Q4 [6][10] - The company expects revenue growth in the second half of 2025 to outpace the first half, despite a slight decrease in the number of new store openings compared to 2024 [6][10] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 7.9 billion RMB, a 20.0% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.8% [6][7] - The company’s total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with significant growth in overseas locations [7][10] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 12.3 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, revenue from the Miniso brand was 44.3 billion RMB, up 21.3% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 42.7% [7] - The TOPTOY brand contributed 2.8 billion RMB in revenue, marking a 50.3% increase year-on-year [7] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 208 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [10][11] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 32 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 19% increase [10][11] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in gross margin, supported by the rising contribution from overseas and IP sales [7][10]

2025 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | --- | --- | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李娟廷 S0350524090007 | | | lijt03@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2024 年业绩稳中有增，磷矿资源优势领先 ——云天化（600096）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 云天化 | 7.6% | 0.9% | 29.9% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | -1.2% | 11.0% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/24 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 22.92 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 18.22- ...

2025 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 大单品持续放量，电商渠道加速弯道超车 ——百亚股份（003006）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | 2025/03/24 | | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M 12M | | 百亚股份 | 6.0% | -1.4% 51.4% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | -1.2% 11.0% | | 市场数据 | | 2025/03/24 | | 当前价格（元） | | 23.98 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | 16.00-29.36 | | 总市值（百 ...

2025 年 03 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 腾势 [Table_Title] N9、二代哈弗枭龙 MAX 上市，马斯克召 开特斯拉全员大会 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/03/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | -2.0% | 10.3% | 28.0% | | 沪深 300 | 0.2% | -1.3% | 11.5% | 《汽车行业周报：FigureAI 正式发布 Helix 模型， 上汽与华为签署深度合作协议（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》 ——2025-02-23 最近一年走势 投资要点： 腾势 N9 上市，38.98 万元起售。3 月 21 日，SUV 腾势 N9 上市，推 出三款车型，官方指导价 38.98 万元~44.98 万元。外形方面，腾势 N9 长宽高 5258/2030/1830mm，轴距 3125mm，提供四款车色。内饰 方面，三折叠座椅设计，同时拥有一二排大床、二三排大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10] Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with adjusted net profit increasing by 702.1% year-on-year [4] - The company reported a revenue of 2.24 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 155.6% [3][4] - The company is expanding its product offerings across all age groups and is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets [5] - The company has established a strong presence in overseas markets, with overseas sales revenue growing by 518.1% [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 52.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 26.1%, up by 17.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects revenues of 3.89 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of 972 million RMB [9] Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched 682 SKUs covering various age groups, with a focus on popular IPs such as Ultraman and Transformers [5] - The revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards role-playing toys [5] - The company has introduced a 9.9 RMB Transformers SKU to expand its price range and target lower-tier markets [5] Sales Channels - Online sales accounted for 6.95% of total revenue, while offline sales made up 93.04%, showing a strong reliance on traditional retail channels [6][7] - The company has seen a significant increase in revenue from distribution sales, which reached 20.63 billion RMB, up by 181.5% year-on-year [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 5.17 billion RMB by 2026, with an adjusted net profit of 1.29 billion RMB [9][10] - The expected return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 101% in 2025, indicating strong profitability potential [10]

2025 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩增速亮眼，结构持续优化 ——金徽酒（603919）2024 年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 表现 | 2025/03/24 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 3M | 1M | | 12M | | 金徽酒 | | -4.1% | 3.3% | | -8.4% | | 沪深 300 | | -1.2% | -0.9% | | 11.0% | | | 2025/03/24 | | | | | | 当前价格（元） | | | | 19.02 | | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.47-24.18 | | | | | | 总市值（百万） | 9,648.09 | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | 日均成交额（百万） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in user numbers and market share, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million by the end of 2024, and a substantial increase in monthly active users and annual transaction users [5][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, up 29.7% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 6,874 service centers by the end of 2024, adding 965 new stores during the year [7][8]. - The management has demonstrated confidence in the company's future by repurchasing shares, acquiring 23,571,300 shares, which is 2.9% of the total issued share capital as of March 20, 2025 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.14%, 10.41%, and 9.63% [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, with a gross margin of 25.4% [5][9]. - The projected financials for 2025E-2027E include revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 765 million RMB, 1.075 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB respectively [8][9]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has established itself as the leader in the Chinese automotive service market, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million and significant growth in active users [7][8]. - The company has effectively utilized platforms like Douyin to enhance user engagement, resulting in over 100% growth in new users for tire maintenance services [7]. Store Expansion and Marketing Investment - The company has expanded its store network to 6,874 locations, with a significant investment of nearly 100 million RMB in supporting both new and existing stores [7][8]. - Marketing expenses for online and offline promotions totaled 1.04 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 250 million RMB from the previous year [7].

2025 年 03 月 25 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 超长债性价比究竟如何 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 超长债性价比究竟如何 超长债期限利差的中枢将如何变动？从近期经济基本面的表现来 看，地产销售数据出现边际好转，2 月制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以上， 或表明基本面阶段性企稳。若后续经济数据持续向好，经济增速的 二阶导拐点确定，投资者的长期经济预期由弱转强，那么超长债期 限利差的中枢可能上移。 各机构需求将如何变化？受监管影响，农金社对超长债的需求或边 际弱化。保险的潜在需求不弱，但点位要求较高。股市情绪好转， 权益资金的需求量或也有所下降。 总结而言，超长债期限利差的中枢有上行的可能，同时今年主力参 与机构对超长债的需求可能边际下降，期限利差大幅向下偏离中枢 的可能性也有所降低。因此，今年超长端的赔率或相对一般，30Y-10Y 的期限利差不排除阶段性扩大到 25-30BP 的可能，胜率则更取决于 择时， ...

2025 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 [Table_Title] 成本持续优化，出栏高速增长 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn ——巨星农牧（603477）2024 年报点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨星农牧 | 5.5% | 1.5% | -46.2% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | -1.2% | 11.0% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/24 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 19.49 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 15.48-37.49 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 9,941.27 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 9,941.27 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 51,007.03 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 51,007.03 | | ...