Group 1: CRO Demand and Pricing - The demand for CRO services is recovering, with a tight supply of experimental monkeys leading to price increases. The price of 3-5 year old macaques has risen to 140,000 yuan each, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the domestic innovative drug R&D sector [4][5]. - In 2025, from January to November, domestic financing for innovative drugs reached 4.086 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% compared to 2024. This reflects a significant recovery in the demand for innovative drug R&D [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Strategies - As the year-end approaches, bond market strategies are converging towards reducing duration and increasing leverage. The interbank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.23 percentage points to 107.68% as of December 19 [8][9]. - Funds are focusing on short- to medium-term credit bonds, with a notable shift towards buying credit bonds while net selling government bonds. This indicates a strategy of selling rates and buying credit [9]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Changan Deep Blue and BAIC Blue Valley's Arcfox have received the first batch of L3 level approval for autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant milestone in China's policy and regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles [12]. - The Great Wall Ora 5 was launched with a suggested retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, featuring advanced driver assistance systems and a design that continues the Ora "cat" series [13][14]. - The automotive sector's performance is closely aligned with the overall market, with the A-share automotive index showing a slight decline of 0.1% during the week of December 15 to 19 [11]. Group 4: Chemical Industry Insights - The price of liquid chlorine has increased to 114 yuan/ton, up 11.76% week-on-week, driven by improved demand from downstream industries [26]. - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to 102,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.51%, while battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 104,250 yuan/ton, up 8.31%, indicating strong demand in the energy storage sector [26]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift towards domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials due to geopolitical tensions, with a focus on companies involved in photolithography and electronic chemicals [17][19]. Group 5: Swine and Poultry Industry Trends - The swine industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing pig prices. The expectation is that price adjustments will be gradual rather than abrupt [43]. - The poultry sector is showing signs of improvement, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment, which has seen a steady increase in breeding stock [44]. Group 6: Real Estate Market Outlook - The report forecasts that in 2026, the total sales area of commercial housing will reach 780 million square meters, with significant contributions from third- and fourth-tier cities [49]. - The supply of new homes in first-tier cities is expected to decline due to reduced land supply, with a projected 28% year-on-year decrease in land transaction area [50]. - The new home price index is expected to perform better than the second-hand home price index, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.2% for new homes compared to a 5.8% decline for second-hand homes [52].

2025 年 12 月 22 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2026 年房地产展望 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《宏观点评：中央经济工作会议的六大关键词*夏 磊》——2025-12-12 《2026 年宏观经济展望：变局中的突围*夏磊》— —2025-11-20 《宏观深度研究：从成交结构看购房者行为变化* 夏磊》——2025-10-29 《学习四中全会精神的五点心得*夏磊》—— 2025-10-24 《美联储议息会议点评：一次风险缓释的美联储降 息*夏磊》——2025-09-18 一线城市新房销售面积下降源于土地供应减少。自 2021 年起连续 四年土地供应大幅下滑，市场新增供给明显减少。这一现象在 2025 年延续，2025 年 1-10 月，一线城市月均土地成交建筑规划面积 104 万平方米，较前 4 年月均成交减少 65%。我们预计全年土地成交规 划建筑面积约 1268 万平方米，同比下降 28%。 2026 年，是"十五五"的开局之年。在促进房地产市场止跌回稳的 总基调之下，房地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, with a focus on positioning at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to stabilize pig prices, which are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply [3][15] - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and potential price recovery in the future [4][28] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the clinical trial progress of African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions for leading companies in the sector [5][38] - The pet industry continues to experience rapid growth, with domestic brands gaining strength and improving profitability [8][60] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.53 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month [14][15] - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][15] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment has seen a total of 107.21 thousand sets updated from January to October 2025, with a balanced import and self-breeding ratio [4][28] - Recommended companies in this sector include San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [4][28] Animal Health - The animal health industry has faced losses for over three months, with expectations of continued low pig prices. The clinical trials for the African swine fever vaccine are a critical step towards commercialization [5][38] - Companies to watch include BioStock, Kexin Biological, and Ruipu Biological [5][38] Planting Industry - Grain prices are fluctuating, with corn prices at 2244 CNY/ton and wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton. The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.03 [44][48] - Investment suggestions focus on companies with strong positions in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [6][48] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with pig feed priced at 3.33 CNY/kg and chicken feed at 3.45 CNY/kg. The industry is expected to see increased concentration [49][50] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [49][50] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The number of pet dogs and cats is also on the rise [59][60] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [59][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1][42]. Core Insights - There is a recovery in demand for clinical research organizations (CROs), while the supply of experimental monkeys is tight, leading to price increases. The domestic financing for innovative drugs is gradually recovering, with a total financing amount of $4.086 billion from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1][10]. - The pharmaceutical sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date return of 14.49% against the CSI 300's 16.09% [22]. - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 33.0 times PE based on 2026 profit forecasts, which is a 41% premium over the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [23]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.28% this week, while the pharmaceutical sector decreased by 0.14%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary sub-industries. The weekly performance of sub-sectors includes declines in chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products, while medical services and medical commerce showed gains [9][22]. Market Dynamics - The demand for CROs is recovering, and the supply of experimental monkeys is limited, with prices for 3-5 year old monkeys reaching 140,000 yuan each. This indicates a recovery in the domestic innovative drug research and development environment [10][11]. Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's current valuation is 29.1 times PE based on trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings, which is below the historical average of 35.0 times PE. The sector has a 17.2% premium over the overall A-share market [23]. Company Performance - Notable performers in the pharmaceutical commercial sector this week include Huaren Health, Luyuan Pharmaceutical, and Shuyuan Pingmin, with significant weekly gains [25]. Key Company Meetings - Upcoming shareholder meetings include Dong'e Ejiao, Zhonghe Holdings, and Yiling Pharmaceutical on December 22, among others [31][32][33].

Group 1 - The report analyzes the recent trends in the bond market, highlighting a general strategy of reducing duration and increasing leverage as year-end approaches [6][11] - As of December 19, the leverage ratio in the interbank bond market increased by 0.23 percentage points to 107.68%, indicating a notable rise in leverage [11][22] - The median duration of medium to long-term bond funds decreased to 2.68 years, down by 0.07 years compared to December 15 [11][38] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds due to a favorable funding environment and large banks purchasing short-term bonds [12] - There is a notable trend of non-bank institutions, such as asset management and trust companies, significantly buying 5-year subordinated bonds and perpetual bonds, indicating a compression opportunity in spreads [12][13] - Caution is advised regarding 30-year government bonds, as there has been significant selling pressure from joint-stock banks, and the report maintains a cautious stance on this segment [13] Group 3 - Key interest rates and spreads have shown changes, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 3.25 basis points to 1.35% and the 10-year yield down by 1.80 basis points to 1.83% [14] - The report notes that the yield spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bonds decreased by 3.60 basis points to 39.44 basis points [14] - The report tracks the changes in government bond yield spreads, indicating fluctuations in the 3-year to 1-year and 5-year to 3-year spreads [16] Group 4 - The interbank pledged repo balance rose by 0.38 trillion yuan to 12.80 trillion yuan as of December 19 [19] - The average transaction amount for pledged repos from December 15 to 19 was 8.48 trillion yuan, with overnight transactions accounting for 90% of the total [26] - The report highlights the net funding outflow from banks, with a total net outflow of 5.09 trillion yuan as of December 19 [28] Group 5 - The median duration of interest rate bond funds was reported at 3.74 years, down by 0.03 years from December 15, while credit bond funds had a median duration of 2.43 years, also down by 0.09 years [43] - The report provides insights into the borrowing balance of 10-year government bonds, indicating fluctuations in borrowing activity [48]

Group 1 - The report highlights the cautious optimism regarding the US interest rate cuts, with expectations of two 25 basis point cuts in 2026 driven by economic data and political pressures [4] - Japan's monetary policy is expected to be cautious, with a projected increase of 1-2 times in 2026, each by 25 basis points, due to structural constraints [4] - The liquidity premium is diminishing, leading to a return to fundamental pricing for both US dollar and RMB assets, with a focus on performance verification rather than liquidity speculation [5] Group 2 - CATL has launched the world's first humanoid robot PACK production line, marking a significant milestone in the application of embodied intelligence in smart manufacturing [8] - The report notes significant financing activities in the robotics sector, including nearly 100 million yuan for Xuanji Power and several million for Zhigu Tianchu, indicating a growing investment interest [6][7] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience substantial growth opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies with core component capabilities and active involvement in humanoid robotics [12] Group 3 - The motorcycle industry has shown a year-on-year sales increase of 16% from January to November 2025, with exports growing by 21% [16] - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle have reported mixed sales results, with electric motorcycle sales for Chunfeng increasing by 439% [17][19] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry, citing continued export demand and market potential [21] Group 4 - The report discusses the planned IPO of Zhongwen Online to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness, aiming to expand financing channels and strengthen its overseas presence [22][23] - The overseas short drama market is projected to grow significantly, with the company’s platforms showing strong performance and market share [24][26] Group 5 - The report indicates a high growth certainty in global energy storage demand, with significant increases in orders and projects from Chinese companies in overseas markets [30] - The solar industry is experiencing price increases in silicon materials, which is expected to improve profitability in 2026 [27] - The wind power sector is also seeing robust demand, with significant tendering activity and price recovery in both onshore and offshore projects [28][29] Group 6 - The coal market is experiencing a decline in supply, with prices dropping to 703 yuan per ton, but there is an expectation of price stabilization due to reduced production and increased demand from non-electric sectors [37] - The report highlights the resilience of the coal industry, with major companies showing strong cash flow and profitability, suggesting a "recommended" rating for the sector [40]

S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025年12月21日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告： 摩托车行业2025年11月海关数据更新 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 2.9% | -1.7% | 29.6% | | 沪深300 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 15.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 摘要 -12% -2% 9% 20% 30% 41% 2024/12/19 2025/03/19 2025/06/17 2025/09/15 2025/12/14 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-11月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-12-20 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-10月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-11-16 最近一年走势 相关报告 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年10月海关数据更新（推荐）* ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with domestic policies remaining positive and downstream demand showing resilience. Aluminum ingots continue to demonstrate inventory reduction, while prices remain stable at high levels. However, as demand transitions into the off-season, there may be pressure on aluminum water conversion rates, necessitating ongoing monitoring of inventory performance [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains optimistic due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, suggesting sustained high industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 19, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,945.0 per ton, up $70.0 from the previous week, marking a 2.4% increase week-on-week and a 16.4% increase year-on-year [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 22,185.0 yuan per ton, up 15.0 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a 0.1% week-on-week increase and an 11.3% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21,840.0 yuan per ton, down 230.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.0% decrease week-on-week, but up 10.6% year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, a decrease of 346,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [53] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 28.74, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.54, PE ratio 11.3, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.21, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00, PE ratio 14.2, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 26.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13, PE ratio 12.4, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH): Price 10.85, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84, PE ratio 12.8, Investment rating: Buy [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 29.23, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88, PE ratio 15.5, Investment rating: Buy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to some mines completing their annual production tasks and reducing output, while demand remains relatively stable, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [6][68] - The report highlights the long-term upward trend in coal prices driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [68] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 19, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 703 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][13] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 1.94 percentage points to 88.3% as of December 17, primarily due to some mines reducing output after meeting annual production targets [13][19] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants decreased by 0.6 thousand tons week-on-week [13][21] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.746 million tons, down 237 thousand tons year-on-year [13][31] - Northern port inventories increased by 632 thousand tons week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [13][26] 2. Coking Coal - The utilization rate of sample coal mines for coking coal decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.0% from December 10 to December 17 [4][67] - The price of main coking coal at ports rose to 1,740 RMB/ton, an increase of 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][36] - The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,473 trucks, although it decreased by 5 trucks week-on-week [4][38] 3. Coke - The coke market is currently weak, with the third round of price reductions initiated, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [5][67] - The production rate of independent coking plants decreased to 70.48%, reflecting a seasonal decline in iron and steel production [5][50] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased by 28 RMB/ton week-on-week, indicating pressure on profitability [5][49] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on stable companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with higher elasticity in thermal coal like Yanzhou Coal and Jin控煤业 [6][68] - The report emphasizes the strong cash flow and high asset quality of leading coal companies, which are characterized by high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins [68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the market index [5]. Core Insights - The company is planning to list H-shares in Hong Kong to enhance its global strategy and broaden financing channels, which is expected to drive growth in its overseas short video platforms [5]. - The company's short video platforms, FlareFlow and ReelShort, are ranked among the top 6 globally, with significant revenue growth and market share expansion [6]. - The AI comic business is expanding rapidly, with successful IPs and collaborations in international markets, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month decline of 14% compared to a 15.8% increase in the index [3]. Market Data - Current stock price is 23.83 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 17.36 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 15.74 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Developments - The company aims to enhance its overseas brand influence and operational efficiency through the planned Hong Kong listing, which will also help mitigate foreign exchange costs [5]. - The overseas short video market is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a market size of 36 billion USD in 2025 and 60 billion USD in 2026, reflecting a robust commercial potential [8]. Platform Performance - FlareFlow's revenue showed a remarkable increase, with a peak of 729,000 USD in November 2025, while ReelShort achieved a net revenue of 35.99 million USD, marking a 72% year-on-year growth [6]. - The monthly active users (MAU) for ReelShort reached 49.9 million, representing a 222% increase year-on-year, showcasing the platform's strong user acquisition [6]. AI Comic Business - The company has launched successful AI comic projects, with significant viewership numbers, and is set to release its self-developed AI animation toolchain by December 2025 [7].