2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一季度业绩同比大幅提升，矿建加速推进 ——亚钾国际（000893）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 亚钾国际 | 14.3% | 51.4% | 56.6% | | 沪深 300 | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/25 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 29.22 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.65-29.30 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 27,000.78 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in coal production and sales in 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating resilience in performance despite market challenges [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 was CNY 184.145 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 22.36 billion, a decrease of 3.21% [5][6] - The report highlights a high dividend policy and anticipates stable business growth, with a projected EPS of CNY 1.91 for 2025 [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a coal production of 170.4846 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, and coal sales of 258.4308 million tons, up 9.13% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, coal production was 43.9377 million tons, a 6.00% increase year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 39.5467 million tons, up 5.81% [6] Pricing and Costs - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2024 was CNY 532 per ton, down CNY 59.05 per ton (-10.0%) year-on-year, while the unit cost was CNY 260.2 per ton, a decrease of 1.6% [6] - The overall gross margin for the coal business decreased due to falling prices [6] Power Generation - The total power generation in 2024 was 37.615 billion kWh, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year, while the total sales volume was 35.126 billion kWh, also up 4.37% [6] - The average selling price for electricity was CNY 399.23 per MWh, down 4.8% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of CNY 2.29 billion, a decrease of 21.78% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 163.777 billion, CNY 172.651 billion, and CNY 182.248 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 18.535 billion, CNY 19.425 billion, and CNY 20.711 billion [8][9] - The report anticipates a stable business environment with a high dividend yield, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure, with revenue of 7.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in sales of organic amines and acetic acid significantly impacted revenue and profit [8][12] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from lower coal prices, which may reduce costs and improve performance in the future [8][12] - The company is actively advancing its construction projects, which are expected to provide new growth momentum [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan year-on-year and 12.74 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit was 12.71 billion yuan, down 4.75 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.95 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.07 billion yuan, down 3.58 billion yuan year-on-year and 1.47 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company's sales volume for fertilizers reached 1.4533 million tons, an increase of 36.74% year-on-year but a decrease of 3.91% quarter-on-quarter. Organic amines and acetic acid saw significant declines in sales volume [8][12] Market Conditions - The average price of urea in Q1 2025 was 1,734 yuan/ton, down 22% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of acetic acid was 2,762 yuan/ton, down 8% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter [8][12] - The company’s main product prices are currently experiencing low volatility, but the significant drop in coal prices is expected to improve the company's performance in the coming quarters [10][12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 37.5 billion yuan, 41.2 billion yuan, and 45.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.46 billion yuan, 5.01 billion yuan, and 5.72 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 10, 9, and 8 times [12][14] - The ongoing construction projects are expected to enhance the company's growth potential, supporting the positive outlook [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, the company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 38.4 billion yuan (down 15.4%) and net profit at 4 billion yuan (down 20%) [4][5] - The coal production and sales showed slight growth, with production at 33.35 million tons (up 1.9%) and sales at 64.14 million tons (up 0.4%) [5] - The report emphasizes the improvement in coal chemical business margins, with overall coal chemical gross profit increasing by 8% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 2.58%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 18% to 492 yuan per ton, with specific prices for thermal coal and coking coal at 454 yuan (down 11.7%) and 922 yuan (down 39.1%) respectively [5] - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 45.2%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Coal Business - The company produced 33.35 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, with sales of 64.14 million tons [5] - The sales volume of thermal coal and coking coal was 30.02 million tons (up 1.4%) and 2.66 million tons (down 1.5%) respectively [5] Coal Chemical Business - The report indicates significant improvements in unit profitability for polyethylene, polypropylene, and methanol, with gross profits per ton increasing by 85 yuan, 235 yuan, and 446 yuan respectively [5] - The sales volume for polyethylene and polypropylene was 178,000 tons (down 6.8%) and 177,000 tons (down 2.7%) respectively [5] - The overall gross profit for the coal chemical business was 862.6 million yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue of 168.88 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 11%, followed by a 5% growth in the subsequent years [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.21 billion yuan, down 16% from the previous year, with an expected recovery in the following years [7][9] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to generate stable earnings due to its high long-term contract ratio and ongoing projects in coal mining and chemical sectors [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.794 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 370 million yuan, up 16.02% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.43 yuan per share [6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Performance - The company's revenue continued to grow steadily at 8.95% in Q1 2025, with profit growth of 16.02% outpacing revenue growth. The main business saw a higher growth rate, with yeast and deep-processed products increasing by 13.2% year-on-year [7] Domestic and International Markets - In Q1 2025, domestic and international revenues were 2.099 billion yuan and 1.684 billion yuan, respectively, showing a decline of 0.3% domestically and an increase of 22.9% internationally. The overseas market continues to show strong growth, with significant expansion in regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific [7] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.97%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in raw material costs. The company expects continued improvement in gross margin as depreciation and amortization increases are anticipated to be lower than in 2024 [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 16.678 billion yuan, 18.278 billion yuan, and 19.966 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 10%, and 9%, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.554 billion yuan, 1.796 billion yuan, and 2.059 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17%, 16%, and 15% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is expected to enter a phase of high sales prosperity, driven by policy incentives and new product launches, with a focus on high-level intelligent driving and robotics development [4][6][16] - The 2024 vehicle replacement policy is anticipated to boost passenger car sales beyond expectations, continuing into 2025 [4][16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index from April 21 to April 25, with a weekly increase of 4.9% compared to the index's 0.6% rise [5][17] - Major automotive stocks such as Li Auto, Xpeng, and NIO saw significant gains during this period, with NIO increasing by 15.9% [5][17] New Product Launches - The 21st Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition showcased over 100 global debut models, highlighting the strong performance of domestic brands and the acceleration of intelligent vehicle development [13][14] - Huawei's ADS 4 system was launched, featuring capabilities for high-speed Level 3 autonomous driving [14][16] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the automotive sector: 1. Domestic brands entering a new phase of high-end development, with companies like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors recommended for investment [6][16] 2. The "affordability" of high-level intelligent driving is expected to significantly increase its penetration rate, with companies like Xpeng, Huayang Group, and Desay SV recommended [6][16] 3. The potential for mass production of robotics, with companies like Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology highlighted [6][16] 4. Favorable conditions for quality auto parts manufacturers like Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Co., with a focus on their upward operational cycles [6][16] 5. In the commercial vehicle sector, a recovery in heavy truck demand is anticipated in 2025, with China National Heavy Duty Truck and Yutong Bus recommended [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and profit [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.26% year-on-year increase in 2024 and an 18.43% increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased daily transactions with Alibaba Group, projecting a significant rise in related transactions for 2025 [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion, up 205.24% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [6]. - The company completed 227.3 billion express deliveries in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, and maintained a market share of 13.0% [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively managed costs through various strategies, resulting in improved single-package profitability in 2024 and stable performance in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The single-package express revenue decreased to 2.05 yuan in 2024, while the single-package cost was reduced to 1.94 yuan, leading to a gross profit of 0.11 yuan [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the single-package express revenue was 2.04 yuan, with costs at 1.95 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 0.12 yuan [10]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 537.86 billion, 605.17 billion, and 666.53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.79 billion, 17.35 billion, and 19.94 billion [12][13]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 14%, 13%, and 10% for the years 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 33%, 26%, and 15% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a breakthrough in compound fertilizer sales, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.71% in 2024, reaching 10.263 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 17.89%, totaling 826 million yuan [6][8] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 13 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, and 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 998 million yuan, 1.202 billion yuan, and 1.407 billion yuan [14][41] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company sold 3.5128 million tons of phosphate fertilizers, a 12.18% increase year-on-year, with compound fertilizer sales reaching 3.3464 million tons, up 12.68% [8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.384 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, but a 8.06% increase quarter-on-quarter [7] Financial Metrics - The company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 13% in 2024, with a sales gross margin of 18.18%, reflecting a 0.70 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][8] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.405 billion yuan, a 29.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 288 million yuan, up 20.84% [11][29] Production Capacity - The company has a total production capacity of 7.2 million tons per year, with 5.9 million tons dedicated to compound fertilizers, and has established production bases across multiple provinces in China [12] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.60 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 299.49 million yuan, which represents 39.91% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [13] Competitive Advantages - The company has established significant competitive advantages in brand strength, marketing channel development, new product research, and agricultural services, while actively advancing its phosphate chemical project to create a complete industrial chain [14][41]

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]