证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 昆仑能源（00135.HK） 2025 年中报点评：售气价差回落&补贴确认 减少导致业绩承压，DPS 提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 177,726 | 187,046 | 194,158 | 206,079 | 217,252 | | 同比(%) | 3.16 | 5.24 | 3.80 | 6.14 | 5.42 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,682 | 5,960 | 6,061 | 6,341 | 6,635 | | 同比(%) | 8.68 | 4.89 | 1.70 | 4.61 | 4.63 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.77 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.29 | 9.81 | 9.65 | 9.22 | 8.81 | [Table_Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company shows a clear upward trend with accelerated improvement in Q2 2025, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [8] - The company achieved a total revenue of 835 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million yuan, up 18.08% year-on-year [8] - The main brand's net store openings and same-store sales turned positive in Q2, reflecting further improvement in fundamentals [8] - Cost reductions have positively impacted profitability, with a gross margin of 28.2% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store count and market share through acquisitions and operational efficiencies [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,884 million yuan in 2025, 2,123 million yuan in 2026, and 2,293 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.71%, 12.69%, and 8.00% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 289 million yuan in 2025, 327 million yuan in 2026, and 361 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 4.59%, 12.97%, and 10.53% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.21 yuan in 2025, 1.36 yuan in 2026, and 1.51 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to be 18.39 in 2025, 16.27 in 2026, and 14.72 in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a Q2 adjusted net profit growth of 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential operational turning point with positive same-store sales growth in the domestic market [1] - The company is positioned as a leading trend retail brand with its own IP strategy, and the overseas expansion presents significant growth opportunities [1] - The report anticipates an increase in Non-IFRS net profit for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's financial performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 13,838 million, with a year-on-year growth of 39.42% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is estimated at 2,939 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.03% [1] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 44.28%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.33 percentage points [1] - The company plans to open over 500 new overseas stores in 2025, focusing on store quality rather than quantity [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 49.66 billion for Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 23.07% [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 39.06 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 44,290.37 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 19.87, projected to decrease to 11.07 by 2027E [1][8] - The company has a net asset value per share of 8.67 [6]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is a positive cycle driven by policy guidance, capital pricing, and industrial implementation, with macro policies anchoring industrial direction and capital markets facilitating value discovery [1][30] - The market liquidity and valuation have improved, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trading structure and sentiment cycle [1][30] - The initial phase of the "innovation bull" is likely to extend towards financial sectors and technology industries, particularly in areas like robotics, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][30] Industry Insights - In the soft drink industry, companies with strong single-product capabilities are positioned as leaders, with high growth potential in bottled water, sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and electrolyte water [5] - The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, with its NVLink technology allowing for high-speed communication between GPUs, while competitors face challenges in matching this technology [6] - The food and beverage sector is seeing a shift towards health-oriented and functional products, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring being highlighted for their strong market positions [5] Company Analysis - JD Group's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Xiaomi Group is expected to benefit from high-end product positioning and global expansion, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its automotive and AIoT business growth [8] - The newly launched "Dazhen" product from Zhenjiu Li Du aims to capture market demand with a competitive price point, indicating a strategic move to enhance market presence [9] - Xpeng Motors' cautious revenue forecast reflects increased R&D costs, yet the company maintains a "buy" rating due to improving gross margins and competitive AI capabilities [10] - Huazhu Group's Q2 results show strong revenue growth driven by a light-asset model, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience accelerated revenue growth, driven by both consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) segments, with a focus on its cheese strategy and cost control measures [8] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted to 5.37 billion, 6.16 billion, and 7.12 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.87%, 14.71%, and 15.58% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 282.23 million, 382.69 million, and 486.42 million RMB, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148.40%, 35.59%, and 27.10% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.567 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.98%, and a net profit of 133 million RMB, up 86.27% [8] - The company's cheese business has shown comprehensive growth, with total revenue from three major cheese series increasing by 14.85% in the first half of the year [8] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved to 30.81%, with a net profit margin of 5.18%, reflecting an upward trend [8][9] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy for both B2C and B2B markets, enhancing its product matrix to cater to various consumer needs and expanding into high-potential channels [8] - New product launches in the ready-to-eat cheese segment and customized products for membership supermarkets are expected to contribute to ongoing revenue growth [8] - The company has implemented a "cost control strategy" that has led to significant improvements in gross sales margins and a reduction in sales expense ratios [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price trend of precious metals is on the rise, which provides the company with earnings elasticity. The company achieved significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 9.246 billion yuan (up 42.14%) and net profit at 1.596 billion yuan (up 48.43%) [7] - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and benefits from the stable upward trend in precious metal prices. The report notes that the production of gold, silver, zinc, and lead has been affected by seasonal factors and declining ore grades, with respective production figures of 3.72 tons of gold, 61.83 tons of silver, 7,916.57 tons of zinc, and 4,354.42 tons of lead, showing year-on-year changes of -11%, -25%, +41%, and -14% [7] - The average selling prices for gold and silver increased significantly, with gold priced at 724.83 yuan per gram (up 39%) and silver at 6.33 yuan per gram (up 19%) [7] - The company is progressing well with overseas mining projects, including the Osino gold mine in Namibia, which is expected to start production in the first half of 2027 [7] - The company is also increasing its resource reserves, with significant exploration results in Qinghai province, adding 3.85 tons of gold metal [7] - The report anticipates a favorable environment for gold investments due to expected rapid declines in real interest rates in the U.S. [7] Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 13.585 billion yuan in 2024 to 22.311 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.99% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from 2.173 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.352 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 41.57% [1] - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.483 billion yuan, 4.487 billion yuan, and 6.352 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.62, 12.12, and 8.56 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's drug commercialization is in line with expectations, and the potential for clinical advancement has significantly increased [1] - The core product, Orebate, has shown impressive sales growth, with a year-on-year increase of 92.4% to 217 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and is expected to double by the end of the year [7] - The company has successfully launched another product, Lisatoclax, which received conditional approval for marketing, indicating strong commercialization progress [7] - The company has a robust cash reserve of over 3 billion yuan, sufficient to support ongoing pipeline development [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards due to the anticipated sales growth of Orebate and Lisatoclax [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 225.09 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 3,265.89 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be a loss of 925.64 million yuan, with a forecasted recovery to a profit of 1,058.67 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of 2.49 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 2.85 yuan in 2026 [1] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents are expected to reach 1,105.83 million yuan by 2025, supporting its operational needs [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with a strong growth potential in its order backlog [2][7] - The company has a solid position in the high-voltage switchgear market, with record-high bids and a significant increase in orders [7] - International business is in the integration phase, while the distribution business shows steady growth [7] - The company is increasing R&D investment, which supports future growth [7] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted slightly downward due to uncertainties in the delivery schedule of high-voltage orders, but the company maintains a strong outlook [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,077 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.44% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 815.71 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 284.47% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.60 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.87 [1] - The company anticipates total revenue of 13,320 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.40% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,285.21 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 25.61% [1] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is expected to be 17.05 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fuyao Glass is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, showcasing its strong competitive advantage in the global automotive glass industry [7] - Fuyao Glass is expected to continue benefiting from market share growth and an increase in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle due to the ongoing development of automotive intelligence and high-value-added products [7] Financial Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 11.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.42% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 2.775 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.47% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36.72% [7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 38.49%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to improved capacity utilization and cost reduction measures [7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 24.05%, an increase of 3.57 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 9.852 billion yuan, 11.163 billion yuan, and 13.089 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Corresponding EPS for the same period is projected to be 3.77 yuan, 4.28 yuan, and 5.02 yuan, with P/E ratios of 17.14, 15.13, and 12.90, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 356.66 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.4%. However, the Non-GAAP net profit was 7.39 billion yuan, a decline of 48.91% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 2.07% compared to 4.96% in the same period of 2024 [12][27] - The supermarket category continues to recover, and service and 3P business growth exceeded expectations, with product sales revenue reaching 282.41 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year, and service and other income at 74.25 billion yuan, up 29.1% year-on-year [15][19] - The company is focusing on enhancing user engagement and expanding its PLUS membership, which is expected to drive further growth in electronic products and home appliances [18][19] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q2 2025, JD Group's total revenue was 356.66 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 7.39 billion yuan, down 48.91% year-on-year [12][27] Business Segment Growth - The electronic products and home appliances segment generated 178.98 billion yuan, growing 23.4% year-on-year, while daily necessities revenue was 103.43 billion yuan, up 16.4% year-on-year [18] - Platform and advertising service revenue reached 28.51 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase, and logistics and other service revenue was 45.74 billion yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year [19] Cost and Efficiency - The company's operating costs were 300.02 billion yuan, a 22.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.9%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [22] - Fulfillment expenses rose 28.6% to 22.15 billion yuan, with a fulfillment expense ratio of 6.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [22] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The EPS (Non-GAAP) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 9.0, 12.8, and 15.7 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.7, 8.9, and 7.2 times [27]