房地产/房地产开发 新城控股（601155.SH） 商管收入双位数增长，融资成本明显下降 2025 年 09 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 14.83 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.80/9.16 | | 总市值(亿元) | 334.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 334.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.56 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.56 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.29 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 新城控股 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商管经营持续稳健，母公司重启美 元 债 融 资 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.6.16 公司 2025 上半实现营业收入 221.0 亿元，同比-34.8%；实现归母净利润 8.95 亿 元，同比-32.1%；实现扣非归母净利润 9.47 亿元，同比增长-28.2%；实现经营性 净现金流 2.86 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 was in line with expectations, with a revenue of 61.93 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.20 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 28.91 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion yuan, up 44.6% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast, with net profits projected at 10.81 billion yuan, 11.64 billion yuan, and 12.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.71 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 1.96 yuan for the same period, with the current stock price corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.7, 15.5, and 14.6 times [4][8] Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream businesses experienced year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, and +38.0%, respectively. The decline in liquid milk was mitigated by a low base from the previous year, while milk powder and ice cream showed strong growth [5][6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to sustained cost benefits and ongoing business structure optimization. The net profit margin improved to 8.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see improved supply and demand dynamics in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal demand and the gradual rollout of deep processing capacity. This is anticipated to support steady revenue growth and stable profit margins for the company [7]

房地产/房地产开发 南京高科（600064.SH） 股权投资进展顺利，归母净利润双位数增长 2025 年 09 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 7.92 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 8.77/5.43 | | 总市值(亿元) | 137.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 137.04 | | 总股本(亿股) | 17.30 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 17.30 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 65.61 | 股价走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 南京高科 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《地产业务收缩影响营收，归母净利 润同比增长—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.23 《营收规模同比收缩，融资成本优势 保持—公司信息更新报告》-2024.9.4 | ——公司信息更新报告 | | --- | | 齐东（分析师） | | | | | | 胡耀文（分析师） | | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the revenue growth of the A-share market has turned positive, while profit growth has slowed down in the first half of 2025 compared to Q1 [2][12] - The revenue growth rate for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 is 0.04%, an improvement from -0.15% in Q1, while the net profit growth rate has decreased to 2.40% from 4.02% in Q1 [2][12] - The report identifies a "dual-driven" market structure, highlighting strong resilience in growth categories under global technological collaboration and a cyclical recovery in PPI under the "anti-involution" trend [3][12] Group 2 - The report categorizes industries based on profit growth levels, identifying high-growth sectors primarily in technology manufacturing, with consumer and cyclical sectors showing divergence [19] - Expanding high-growth industries include technology manufacturing (electronics, machinery), consumer (home appliances), cyclical (non-ferrous metals), and large financials (non-bank financials) [19][20] - Industries that have shown significant improvement from negative profit growth in Q1 to H1 include electric equipment, defense, and biomedicine [20] Group 3 - The competitive landscape indicates that profit distribution in the A-share market is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with a notable positive correlation between profit growth and market capitalization [21][22] - The median net profit growth rates for companies with market caps above 200 billion, 100-200 billion, 50-100 billion, and below 50 billion are 9.2%, 5.5%, 1.7%, and -3.4% respectively, showing a clear decreasing trend [21][22] - Industries with high growth and relatively balanced growth rates include non-bank financials, basic chemicals, and steel, while industries like electronics and agriculture show significant growth divergence [22][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 99.17 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.98 million yuan, up 53.73% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to acquire a 55.01% stake in a smart layout industrial robot and intelligent equipment company for 14.15 million yuan, which will enhance its strategic positioning in the industrial robot and intelligent equipment sectors [6] - The company has been recognized as a "2024 Shandong Innovative Enterprise" and has become a partner in Huawei's Ascend ecosystem, indicating its strong innovation capabilities [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 78 million yuan, 93 million yuan, and 110 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.86 yuan [5][9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 65.8, 55.4, and 46.8 respectively, indicating a positive outlook on earnings growth [5][9] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 239 million yuan in 2023 to 445 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on new car profits, but stable contributions from after-sales services are expected to support profitability [4][5][6] - The company has undergone significant network optimization, closing 37 authorized dealerships while opening 57 new ones and 20 service centers to enhance operational efficiency [4][5] - The forecast for net profit has been revised downwards for 2025-2027 due to ongoing challenges in the luxury car sales market, with expected net profits of 27.17 billion, 36.49 billion, and 49.83 billion respectively [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit of 10.11 billion, down 36.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The company sold 228,600 new cars in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with a negative gross margin of 4.1% on new car sales [5][6] - After-sales service revenue increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 11.45 billion, with a gross profit of 5.44 billion, reflecting a stable growth trend [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14, 1.53, and 2.09 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.9, 9.6, and 7.0 [4][7] - The company's revenue is expected to stabilize and grow, with projections of 165.3 billion in 2025, 171.7 billion in 2026, and 200 billion in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][16]. Core Views - The company is a leading provider of digital transformation and smart manufacturing solutions in China, expected to benefit from downstream recovery and overseas opportunities, with AI opening up growth potential [4]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 201 million, 240 million, and 289 million yuan respectively, with EPS of 0.74, 0.88, and 1.07 yuan per share [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 71.0, 59.5, and 49.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 45 million yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year [5]. - Revenue from various business segments showed steady growth, with R&D design revenue at 57 million yuan (up 11.05%), digital management revenue at 571 million yuan (up 4.32%), production control revenue at 138 million yuan (up 7.36%), and AIoT revenue at 274 million yuan (up 3.51%) [6]. - AI business revenue grew by 125.91% year-on-year, driven by the integration of AI technology into various products and services [7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 2.657 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 201 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.3% [9]. - The gross margin is expected to be 60.0% in 2025, with a net margin of 7.7% [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the deepening transformation of the buy-side advisory and a significant year-on-year increase in proprietary investment [4] - For the first half of 2025, the company's total operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 8.0 billion and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39% and 64%, aligning with previous performance forecasts [4] - The annualized weighted ROE is 8.54%, up by 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, with a leverage ratio of 3.74 times at the end of the period, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company plans a mid-term dividend of 0.120 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 29% [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in wealth management and large asset management business lines, driven by active market trading and rising stock prices, leading to upward revisions of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest net income, and investment income increased by 31%, 32%, -15%, -33%, and 75% year-on-year, respectively, with brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary investment driving performance growth [6] - The company completed 10 equity financing deals, ranking 6th in the industry, with a total bond underwriting scale of 277.9 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year, ranking 9th in the market [6] - The investment income (including fair value changes) reached 4.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75%, with an annualized proprietary investment return rate of 6.2% [6] - The financial asset scale at the end of the period was 146.5 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year [6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.19, 1.10, and 1.01 for 2025-2027 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.2 [10] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 7.397 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 120.8% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth trend remains robust despite a sequential decline in Q2 due to customer acceptance rhythm. The outlook for performance recovery in the second half of the year is positive [4][5] - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.51%, driven by steady order growth [4] - The company continues to maintain high R&D investment, with R&D expenditure reaching 2.915 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.01% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.84% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 was 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.95% [5] - The gross margin for Q2 was 41.29%, down 6.11 percentage points year-on-year and 1.73 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 39.5 billion yuan, 48.8 billion yuan, and 59 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 7.84 billion yuan, 9.91 billion yuan, and 12.01 billion yuan for the same years [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 34.3, 27.1, and 22.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Market Position and Product Development - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix in the integrated circuit equipment sector, with significant revenue contributions from etching and thin film deposition equipment [6] - In H1 2025, the revenue from etching equipment exceeded 5 billion yuan, while thin film deposition equipment revenue surpassed 6.5 billion yuan [6] - The company is also expanding into the ion implantation equipment market and has launched several 12-inch ion implantation devices [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The report indicates that the performance of the i6 model is crucial for reversing sales trends, with a focus on operational optimization and leveraging VLA advantages [3][4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to anticipated challenges in the electric vehicle market, with expected revenues of 120.9 billion, 154.4 billion, and 182.8 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.3%, 27.8%, and 18.3% [3][5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have also been reduced to 5.9 billion, 9.4 billion, and 13.5 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -44.7%, 60.0%, and 43.0% [3][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 30.25 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%, with vehicle deliveries slightly exceeding revised guidance at 111,000 units [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6,000 to 260,000 due to financial incentives and sales promotions [3] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 fell to 20.1%, with automotive gross margin at 19.4% and service gross margin at 33.5% [3][5] - The company is guiding for Q3 2025 revenues between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion, with deliveries expected to be between 90,000 and 95,000 units [4] - The report highlights that the company's market capitalization corresponds to price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 1.5, 1.2, and 1.0 for 2025-2027, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.5, 19.3, and 13.6 for the same period [3][5]