2026 年 02 月 01 日 策略研究团队 再提"坚定牛市信心，降低预期斜率" ——投资策略周报 weijixing@kysec.cn 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 波动中仍应坚守仓位 本周市场整体仍处在整理态势中，但板块与个股却有波澜壮阔的极致反馈，如白 酒板块于周中异动大涨，周内成交火热的有色板块于最后一个交易日出现大幅回 撤，给市场带来了一定的恐慌。这也反映出：其一市场频繁且相对极致的轮动表 现很大程度上增加了追涨杀跌的风险，或许坚守中线仓位才是真正的智慧。其 二这样的市场环境本身也是相对涨幅较低+安全边际较好+确定性高的主线品类 或较为稀缺，市场流动性又很充裕，因此我们仍建议关注主题投资的机会。 我们于近期的报告《2026 年五大潜在的强主题机会》中提到历史上主题投资活 跃区间多发生在弱基本面和宽流动性时期。当规模以上工业企业利润、宏观经 济景气指数低迷时，叠加流动性上行，主题投资往往处于活跃时期，热门主题 占比相对较高。主题投资的盛行，往往是宏观环境下理智的选择。主题投资的活 跃通常还需要具体的"火种"来点 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.67 to 1.85 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54% to 71%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be between 1.62 to 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53% to 69% year-on-year. However, for Q4 2025, the net profit is anticipated to decline by 202% to 45% due to increased income tax and exchange losses [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, now estimating net profits of 1.759 billion, 2.316 billion, and 2.954 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 24.42, 32.15, and 41.00 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 21.2, 16.1, and 12.6 times for the respective years [5] - The company is optimistic about the growth of its two-wheeled vehicles and the continued expansion of its brand channels, expecting double-digit growth and stable profitability. The introduction of new products and steady channel expansion in 2026 is also anticipated to contribute to growth [5][7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects total revenue of approximately 21.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. The net profit margin is projected to be 8.2% for 2025, with a gross margin of 30.3% [8] - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 36.1% in 2026, reaching 29.132 billion yuan, and a further increase of 27.4% in 2027, targeting 37.117 billion yuan [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.1% in 2025, increasing to 23.5% in 2026 and stabilizing at 23.4% in 2027 [8] Product Performance - In Q4 2025, the two-wheeled vehicle segment is expected to focus on inventory clearance, with an estimated shipment of 410 million units for the year, and 200,000 to 300,000 units in Q4, reflecting a decline due to policy changes and inventory management [6] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is projected to maintain growth in non-US regions, while the lawn mower robots are expected to exceed expectations due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand [6][7] - For 2026, the two-wheeled vehicle segment is anticipated to outperform industry growth, with a target of 30% volume increase, while the lawn mower robots are expected to see revenue growth double year-on-year [7]

医药生物 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《原料药行业价格更新—行业周报》 -2026.1.25 《业绩为王，继续重点推荐创新药产 业链板块性机会 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.18 《减重新靶点初显锋芒，小核酸疗法 前景可期—行业周报》-2026.1.11 供需双改善，国内临床 CRO 行业进入发展新阶段 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | | | liuyi1@kysec.cn | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790124070022 | liuyi1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070022 中国临床 CRO 行业进入"复苏+稳健增长"新阶段，供需结构持续改善 中国创新药产业已完成从十年前的"离岸外包服务模式"到如今"全球创新资产的 贡献者"的跃迁。临 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's social retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2][10][19] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is projected to be 52%, continuing to act as a main engine for economic development [2][19] - The service consumption sector is becoming the core of growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in service retail sales and a 4.5% rise in per capita service consumption expenditure, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure [2][19] Group 2 - The report indicates that the consumption service sector saw a decline of 2.02% this week, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a growth of 6.49% [3][31] - Among the listed companies in the consumption service sector, 26% saw an increase in market value, while 74% experienced a decline [3][35] - Notable individual stock performances included Qiu Le Seed Industry (+22.55%), Kang Nong Seed Industry (+13.50%), and Tong Guan Mining Construction (+11.98%) [3][43] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, there are 177 companies queued for listing on the North Exchange, with 28 related to the consumption service sector, averaging 1.116 billion yuan in revenue and 129 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [3][45] - Companies such as Shiyang Agricultural Science, Baili Food, and Jule Co. are projected to exceed 200 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [3][45][46] - Sixteen companies in the consumption service sector have announced performance forecasts for 2025, with notable growth expected from Hongyu Packaging, Oufu Egg Industry, Longzhu Technology, and Taihu Snow [3][46][48] Group 4 - The report outlines twelve measures to stimulate service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation services, domestic services, online audio-visual services, travel services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption [10][11] - The report identifies potential growth areas in performance services, sports event services, and emotional/experiential services, with specific companies like Kangbiter, Huayang Racing, and Bixinglong positioned in these sectors [14][15]

Group 1 - The "Space+" industry is becoming a key focus for investment, with plans to develop space digital infrastructure, resource development, traffic management, and tourism [4][17][21] - There are currently 15 companies related to commercial space and space photovoltaics on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of 105.715 billion yuan as of January 30, 2026 [4][21] - Notable companies include Fujida (920640.BJ), which specializes in RF coaxial connectors and cables for communication and defense markets, and Starry Technology (920885.BJ), which provides ground equipment for rocket launches [4][21] Group 2 - The average weekly change for the consumption services sector was -2.02%, with the median P/E ratio dropping to 47.8X [5][40] - The high-end equipment sector saw a median P/E ratio decrease to 36.6X, while the information technology sector's median P/E ratio fell to 79.3X [5][43] - The chemical new materials sector's median P/E ratio decreased to 41.3X, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector's median P/E ratio dropped to 29.5X [5][52] Group 3 - In the technology new industries, the median P/E ratio for 159 companies decreased from 44.7X to 41.5X, with a total market capitalization decline from 560.692 billion to 531.795 billion yuan [6][59][60] - The average weekly change for the technology new industries was -6.53%, with only 14 out of 159 companies experiencing an increase [6][58] - Leading companies in terms of growth included Liancheng CNC (920368.BJ), which saw a 21.73% increase, and Hengtong Light (920045.BJ), which increased by 14.83% [6][63] Group 4 - Companies with high growth expectations for 2025 include Hengtong Light, with a projected net profit increase of 82.95% to 110.05%, and Fujida, expecting a net profit increase of 50.41% to 65.86% [7][27] - Starry Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 105.30% to 117.74%, while Tian Gong Co. (920068.BJ) is expected to deliver its first aerospace-grade titanium alloy wire order by March 2025 [7][29][30] - Liancheng CNC is projected to have a significant decline in net profit, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 72.39% to 81.50% [7][36]

金融工程定期 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 股债配置观点：看多权益资产，最新权益仓位 25% 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 资产配置月报（2026 年 2 月） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 魏建榕（分析师） 王志豪（分析师） 苏俊豪（分析师） wangzhihao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522070003 sujunhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522020001 多资产配置观点：看多短债、平衡低估转债，谨慎看多黄金资产 债券久期择时：模型预测未来三个月水平因子上升，斜率因子陡峭化，曲率因 子增凸，推荐持有 ...

chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 制造业：PMI 再度转弱，生产与需求均下行 (1)需求下行叠加高基数拖累，制造业景气度降至荣枯线下。1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%、环比下行了 0.8 个百分点，明显弱于季节性规律。此前我们曾指出"12 月工作日数同比增加 2 天，作为环比指标的 PMI 读数会出现一定改善"，实际 上经济改善幅度可能有限，但这形成了较高的基数并拖累 1 月 PMI 表现。分行 业来看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等产需指数位于高景气区间， 油煤加工、汽车等行业则相对承压。 (2)有色原油涨价提振工业原材料价格，预计 1 月 PPI 同比延续回升。1 月 PMI 原材料购进价格为 56.1%，较前值上升了 3.0 个百分点；PMI 出厂价格为 50.6%， 较前值上升了 1.7 个百分点。根据高频指标，我们预计 1 月 PPI 环比可能在 0.3% 左右、同比为-1.3%左右。 2026 年 02 月 01 日 开年 PMI 边际放缓 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 1 月 PMI 数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to limited inventory reduction and increased supply pressure [10][11] - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 2.26 percentage points during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, with the agricultural index rising by 1.82% [5][16] - The report indicates that the demand for pork remains weak despite seasonal support, with the average price of live pigs at 12.24 yuan/kg, down 0.68 yuan/kg week-on-week [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes a shift from withholding to active selling in pig breeding, but inventory reduction remains limited, leading to increased risk of price decline after the holiday [10][11] - The average weight of pigs sold has slightly decreased to 127.86 kg, indicating potential supply pressure on prices [10][11] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44% while the agricultural index increased by 1.82% [5][16] - Notable stock performances include Nongfa Seed Industry (+30.24%), Shennong Technology (+26.06%), and Dunhuang Seed Industry (+16.13%) [5][21] Key News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of the spring crop seed market, focusing on key crops such as corn, soybeans, and rice [4][24] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 176.6 billion yuan for high-standard farmland construction in 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year [4][24] Price Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of live pigs was 12.30 yuan/kg, down 5.17% from the previous week, while the price of piglets rose to 25.04 yuan/kg, up 6.37% [26][30] - The average price of white feather chickens increased to 7.74 yuan/kg, up 3.20% week-on-week [32][30] - The average price of beef was reported at 66.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.56% increase [39][30]

《重视硅光和 CPO 链投资机会—行 业点评报告》-2026.1.21 《台积电和谷歌表现亮眼，重视硅光 链和谷歌链—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《光、液冷、国内 AIDC 迎新变化— 行业周报》-2026.1.11 Meta、康宁、微软财报亮眼，重视硅光 CPO、光 纤、液冷投资机会 ——行业周报 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 陈光毅（联系人） | 雷星宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | chenguangyi@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790124020006 | 证书编号：S0790124040002 | Meta 营收资本开支双超预期，业绩指引维持乐观 行 业 研 究 通信 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -26% 0% 26% 53% 79% 106% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日，Meta 公布 20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The competition for AI traffic entry among internet giants is intensifying, with multiple business lines integrating and collaborating. AI empowerment is expected to drive performance and valuation. The demand for AI cloud services is anticipated to continue growing, supported by the rapid growth of domestic AI chips. Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Pinduoduo, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [5][41] - The Moltbot, an AI agent, is gaining attention as a significant breakthrough in the AI agent sector. It is designed to execute practical tasks and is expected to create new opportunities in the AI infrastructure layer. Cloudflare is highlighted as a key observation target due to its leading position in the market [6][20][23] Summary by Sections Internet Sector - The competition for AI traffic entry is increasing, with AI empowerment potentially becoming a key driver for performance and valuation. The demand for AI cloud services is expected to validate continuously, and the growth of domestic AI chips is rapid. Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Pinduoduo, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary. The second-hand housing market in core cities is showing a downward trend in listings, with Beike-W recommended [5][13][41] AI Sector - Moltbot is emerging as a significant breakthrough in the AI agent space, characterized by its ability to execute practical tasks. It has gained popularity in the open-source community and is expected to create positive industry opportunities in 2026. Cloudflare is positioned as a leading beneficiary in this sector due to its robust infrastructure and market presence [6][20][22][23] Weekly Data Update - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.4%, outperforming major global markets. The real estate sector showed significant gains, with a 6.11% increase in the Hang Seng real estate index [31][32]