Group 1 - The macroeconomic data indicates that the economy will face pressure in the second half of the year, but policies are expected to further support the economy, particularly through the implementation of anti-involution policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating domestic consumption [2][3] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, reflecting economic resilience, but the marginal performance of various macroeconomic indicators weakened, indicating a need for policy support in consumption and real estate [3][15] - The central political bureau meeting at the end of July is expected to maintain a warm policy tone, focusing on anti-involution competition, stabilizing real estate, and stimulating consumption as key areas for policy efforts [3][15] Group 2 - The anti-involution policies are accelerating, with significant implications for industry competitiveness and profit distribution within the supply chain, necessitating close monitoring of policy expansion into various sectors [3][13] - The banking sector is expected to enter a period of volatility, with the anti-involution policies catalyzing upgrades and the technology sector likely to maintain its strong performance [5][26] - The recent decline in bank dividend yields is attributed to a significant decrease in cumulative dividend amounts over the past 12 months, but this pressure is expected to be largely absorbed, with a potential for a new high-dividend support trend if banks increase their dividend plans [6][26] Group 3 - The technology sector is showing signs of a potential peak, with five warning signs typically indicating a top, including valuation percentiles and maximum price increases, but current conditions suggest that the growth technology market may not have ended yet [5][26][48] - The performance of the TMT sector has shown significant divergence recently, with communication and electronics sectors performing well, while media has seen declines [5][27] - The analysis of previous AI-driven market cycles indicates that the current growth technology market may still have room to run, as not all warning signs are fully met [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for three months. After the equal - tariff disturbance in early April, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond dropped to 1.65% and has since fluctuated between 1.65% and 1.70% [2][10]. - There are four changes in institutional behavior during the sideways period of the bond market, including changes in the behavior of large banks, the actions of funds and other asset management products, the allocation preferences of insurance institutions, and the change in the lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds [2][3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Four Changes in Institutional Behavior during the Sideways Period of the Bond Market** - Large banks not only increase their purchases of short - term Treasury bonds but also their demand for certificates of deposit. Their weekly demand for certificates of deposit has rebounded to over 100 billion yuan since late May, indicating improved liability - side pressure. After the mid - month tax period disturbance, the liquidity may further loosen [2][10]. - Funds extend the duration of their bond holdings, and asset management products such as trusts increase their purchases. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds has risen to 3.92 years, about 1 year higher than at the beginning of the sideways period, suggesting that non - bank institutions are holding bonds in anticipation of price increases [3][10]. - Insurance institutions have almost stopped buying Treasury bonds in the secondary market and mainly allocate local government bonds, especially 30 - year and 20 - year ones [3][11]. - The lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds has significantly declined, while the lending volume of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has remained flat. The decrease in Treasury bond borrowing by securities firms may be due to limited space for reverse arbitrage strategies in the futures market [3][11]. - **Yield Curve**: The yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 2bp, the 3Y about 2bp, etc. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, the 5Y about 2bp, etc [12]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds has increased. For Treasury bonds, the term spread has generally widened; for China Development Bank bonds, the medium - and long - term spreads have widened [15][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It has dropped to 107.09%. From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the leverage ratio first increased and then decreased during the week [19]. - **Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase this week was 7.2 trillion yuan, with an average daily overnight trading volume accounting for 88.54%. The average daily trading volume decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan compared with last week [25]. - **Liquidity**: Banks' net lending has fluctuated upwards. As of July 18, the net lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.18 trillion yuan; the average daily net lending of joint - stock banks and city and rural commercial banks was 0.77 trillion yuan, and they had a net borrowing of 0.75 trillion yuan on July 18 [29]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds remained at 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.22 years (leveraged). On July 18, the de - leveraged median duration was the same as last Friday, while the leveraged median duration increased by 0.01 year [42]. - **Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) remained at 3.92 years, and the median duration of credit - bond funds (leveraged) rose to 2.99 years, an increase of 0.01 year compared with last Friday [46]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: It has generally narrowed. The 1Y spread narrowed by 5bp, the 2Y by 7bp, etc [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - term implied tax rate has widened, while the medium - and long - term rates have shown differentiation [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance On July 18, the lending concentration of the active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 30 - year Treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while that of the second - active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds showed a downward trend. Except for securities firms, the lending concentration of all other institutions increased [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 410-460 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [3] - The growth in performance is attributed to continuous optimization of market layout, product structure upgrades, improved internal operational efficiency, and effective control of period expenses [3] - 78% of the company's products are exported to the US via Vietnam, indicating limited impact from reciprocal tariffs [3] - The company is positioned as a significant ODM supplier in the global smart electric sofa and bed industry, with a robust overseas capacity layout and an integrated supply chain [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.379 billion, 4.141 billion, and 4.785 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.6%, 22.5%, and 15.6% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 902 million, 1.094 billion, and 1.268 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 21.3%, and 15.9% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 4.14, 5.03, and 5.83 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 15 [4]

Key Insights - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant growth of the A-share ETF market, with a year-on-year increase of 81.6% in 2024, indicating a growing influence on the A-share market [1][11][5] - The report draws comparisons with mature ETF markets in the US, Japan, and Taiwan to provide insights for the future development of A-share ETFs [1][11] Group 1: Origin of ETFs - ETFs in the US, Japan, and Taiwan primarily originated from the need to stabilize or rescue capital markets, while A-share ETFs emerged from strategic financial product innovation aimed at enhancing market efficiency [2][12][21] - The first US ETF was launched in 1993 to prevent market crashes, while Japan's first ETF was introduced in 1995 to revitalize the stock market after a prolonged downturn [19][21] Group 2: Growth Correlation with Market Performance - There is a notable positive correlation between ETF growth rates and stock market performance across different regions, indicating that high ETF growth often coincides with rising stock markets [3][12][40] - In the US, significant ETF growth periods were associated with substantial gains in major stock indices, while similar trends were observed in Japan and Taiwan [27][31][38] Group 3: Trends in ETF Types - A global trend towards broad-based ETFs is evident, with increasing proportions of broad-based ETFs in the total ETF market across the US, Japan, and Taiwan [4][43][48] - In the US, the proportion of broad-based ETFs has risen from 45% in 2010 to 65% by 2024, while in Japan, over 95% of the top ETFs are broad-based [43][48] Group 4: Future Development of A-share ETFs - The A-share ETF market is expected to continue growing, with broad-based ETFs likely to dominate, and regulatory authorities increasingly using ETFs as tools for market stabilization [5][12][51] - The report anticipates that dividend-focused ETFs may gain popularity among individual investors, and technology sector ETFs are expected to be overweighted in future allocations [5][12][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The platinum market faces a structural shortage, with supply contraction in South Africa, stable demand from automotive exhaust catalysts, and incremental demand from the hydrogen energy industry and jewelry sector. The global platinum market's core contradiction lies in the high dependence on South Africa for supply (accounting for over 70% of production in 2024), but reduced capital expenditure and low recycling have led to a continuous supply contraction (CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025). On the demand side, automotive exhaust catalysts (accounting for 43% in 2024) provide a rigid foundation, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. The hydrogen energy industry and gold substitution (high gold prices driving platinum jewelry consumption) offer elastic growth [3]. - The influx of risk - averse funds and continuous supply disruptions have led to a continuous increase in platinum prices. Geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the financial attribute of platinum, attracting risk - averse funds. Supply disruptions have also played a catalytic role. In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply decreased by 13% year - on - year (-117,000 ounces) due to factors such as heavy rainfall and floods in South African mining areas, low smelting capacity utilization in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and mine restructuring in North America. The high gold - platinum ratio in history indicates an undervaluation of platinum's value, which may attract value investment. However, the recent continuous rise in platinum prices still depends on market consensus. If the consensus is strengthened, the value center has room for continuous upward movement, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [3]. - Investment advice: On the supply side, short - term production cuts in South Africa cause supply fluctuations, and inventory is currently at a low level. In the long - term, low capital expenditure leads to supply contraction, and high supply concentration poses certain risks. On the demand side, traditional industrial demand is relatively stable, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. High gold prices promote platinum substitution in the jewelry field. It is recommended to focus on the "resources + technology" line and pay attention to relevant companies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Platinum Metal Properties and Industrial Chain Structure - Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, rhodium, etc., with high melting points, high strength, excellent thermoelectric stability, high - temperature oxidation resistance, and corrosion resistance. Platinum and palladium have strong gas adsorption capacity and excellent catalytic properties, and are widely used in automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, electronic components, and chemical catalysts [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Contradictions Are Prominent, and Structural Shortage Intensifies Supply - Platinum ore supply is relatively concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 70% of production. In 2024, global platinum ore production was 170 tons, with South Africa producing 120 tons, accounting for 70.6% of the global total. In terms of reserves, South Africa accounted for 88.73% of the global platinum - group metal reserves in 2023. Due to reduced capital expenditure in platinum ore projects and low recycling enthusiasm in the past decade, the total platinum supply is expected to fall below 7 million ounces in 2025, with a CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025 [13]. Demand - Platinum has obvious industrial attributes, and automotive exhaust purification demand accounts for about 40%. In 2024, the demand for platinum in automotive exhaust purification accounted for 43%. The hydrogen energy industry may become a future trend, and the growth of hybrid vehicle demand will also bring benefits. Although the demand for platinum in the automotive field is expected to remain high in the long - term, economic prospects are still uncertain [19]. - Jewelry demand has a small base but considerable elastic space. High gold prices have affected gold jewelry demand, and platinum jewelry is expected to fill the gap. The gold - platinum ratio exceeded 3 in February 2025 and回调 to about 2.46 as of July 1. According to WPIC, the year - end inventory is expected to drop sharply, leading to a tightening of market supply, and platinum may become a hedging product [24]. 3.3 Influx of Risk - Averse Funds + Continuous Supply Disruptions, Platinum Prices Rise Continuously - Platinum prices have shown a strong upward trend recently, with an increase of about 34% in the past two months, reaching a high level in the past 10 years. Future price trends still need to pay attention to the impact of economic data on precious metal prices [28]. - Supply disruptions and the gold substitution effect have led to the recent rise in platinum prices. On the supply side, South Africa, which supplies about 70% of platinum production, has been affected by bad weather, restricting mining and refining operations, and recycling metal supply is also at a low level. On the demand side, in addition to the basic demand for platinum as an automotive exhaust catalyst, the substitution effect of platinum jewelry for gold jewelry is obvious, and investment demand and the hedging attribute of platinum have attracted investors. The hydrogen energy concept also gives platinum a certain bullish attribute [31]. - The gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and the future price center still depends on market consensus. Gold and platinum prices diverged about a decade ago, with gold's financial attribute becoming prominent while platinum focused on industrial attributes. Around 2013, platinum prices recovered due to supply contraction, increased industrial and investment demand, and a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and platinum is undervalued. Whether it can attract value investment depends on market consensus, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [38]. 3.4 Core Targets: Guiyan Platinum Industry, Haotong Technology, Huayang New Materials Guiyan Platinum Industry - The company focuses on the manufacturing of precious metal new materials and has established a complete industrial chain system. It has built a precious metal resource recycling industry, carried out full - life - cycle management of precious metals, and established a precious metal supply service platform. It has formed a closed - loop industrial chain from precious metal supply, product processing to waste recycling [48]. - The company has strong R & D capabilities and independent innovation. Relying on the research and development foundation of the State Key Laboratory of New Technologies for Comprehensive Utilization of Rare and Precious Metals and the Kunming Institute of Precious Metals, it has continuously made breakthroughs in high - end materials such as precious metal precursor materials, catalytic materials, and electronic pastes. In 2024, the production of precious metal precursor products increased by more than 20% year - on - year, and the profit of precious metal electronic pastes increased by more than 30% year - on - year [48]. Haotong Technology - The company's three major business segments develop synergistically, and its full - chain service has created core competitiveness. It focuses on the precious metal recycling field, and its business includes precious metal recycling, new materials mainly composed of precious metals, and trade. It has formed a closed - loop from raw material supply to new material manufacturing and recycling, meeting customers' cyclical needs [51]. - The company has leading core technologies. Its independently developed platinum dissolution solution enrichment technology and other technologies are at the international leading level, and its sponge platinum products have a high reputation in the industry. It has advantages in environmental protection, safety, and cost, providing customers with more competitive prices [51]. Huayang New Materials - The company is supported by state - owned enterprise resources and has a full - industrial - chain layout. As a provincial - level state - owned enterprise in Shanxi, it has natural advantages in order acquisition, policy support, and resource approval. Its subsidiary, Huashengfeng Company, is the first domestic precious metal recycling and processing enterprise for producing platinum catalytic nets for nitric acid production. The company also has an industrial chain advantage in "PBAT - modified materials - products" [57]. - As of July 17, 2025, the PE - TTM of Guiyan Platinum Industry, Huayang New Materials, and Haotong Technology were 20, - 62, and 35 times respectively, and the PB were 1.66, 23.88, and 2.81 times respectively. With the rise in platinum prices, relevant companies are expected to improve their performance and digest valuations. According to institutional consensus forecasts, Guiyan Platinum Industry's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 696 million yuan, 826 million yuan, and 955 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.9, 14.2, and 12.3 times at the current stock price [58].

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, copper production is projected to be 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, and cobalt production is expected to be 61,100 tons, up 13.05% year-on-year [7] - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold in June 2025, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and a gold content of 638 tons [8] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.217 billion, 18.093 billion, and 18.759 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.67, 9.57, and 9.23 [9] Financial Summary - The company anticipates a revenue of 213.029 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and projected revenues of 223.839 billion, 232.065 billion, and 240.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, increasing to 17.0% by 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, peaking at 20.2% in 2025, and then declining to 18.3% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy storage industry in Europe, particularly for household and industrial storage systems, driven by rising electricity prices and supportive policies [2][7]. Core Insights - European household storage demand is recovering, with significant growth in industrial storage demand due to rising natural gas costs and electricity prices [2][7]. - The report highlights a new cycle of electricity price increases in Europe, which is expected to support household storage demand [7][77]. - The introduction of dynamic pricing is projected to enhance the return on investment for both household and industrial storage systems [7][77]. Summary by Sections 1. European Household Storage Demand Transmission - Rising natural gas costs are driving up electricity prices, which in turn boosts household storage demand [7][16]. - The European electricity market operates on a market-based trading system, with natural gas prices serving as a benchmark for electricity pricing [7][16]. - The report notes that household storage demand indicators are showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in subsidy applications in Germany [7][60]. 2. European Household/Industrial Storage Demand - The report emphasizes that the average storage ratio for household photovoltaic systems in Europe is around 20%, with significant growth potential in industrial storage [7][68]. - The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55.73% for industrial storage from 2024 to 2029 [7][68]. - The report also mentions that the cost of household storage systems is decreasing, which is expected to increase penetration rates [7][68]. 3. European Household/Industrial Storage Supply - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that Chinese brands are gaining market share in the European household storage market, with over 50% market share expected by 2024 [7][68]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support and the introduction of dynamic pricing in enhancing the economic viability of storage systems [7][68]. - The report concludes that the European energy storage market is poised for significant growth, driven by favorable market conditions and technological advancements [7][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment in secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - eternal bonds") in the current bond market has reached the fourth stage. Since 2024, two - eternal bonds have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report focuses on analyzing the institutional behavior patterns of two - eternal bonds and attempts to discover effective signals [2][15]. - Different types of institutions have different allocation patterns for two - eternal bonds. For example, banks act as stabilizers in the bond market, while securities firms have high - frequency trading, funds are the main buyers, and other institutions have their own preferences [5][6]. - It is difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends, but it can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds to assist investors in observation [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Why Focus on the Institutional Behavior of Two - eternal Bonds? - The investment in two - eternal bonds has gone through four stages. Since 2024, they have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report aims to analyze their institutional behavior patterns and find effective signals [2][15]. - The report discusses three types of bonds (secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and ordinary financial bonds) and six types of investors (banks, securities firms, funds, wealth management, insurance, and others). Different investors' term preferences are mainly concentrated in 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y, and the trading volume of two - eternal bonds over 5Y declines significantly [3][15]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds 3.2.1 Banks Still Act as Stabilizers in the Bond Market - Since the second half of 2024, commercial banks have increased the trading volume of 1Y/3Y secondary capital bonds and continuously net - sold 5Y secondary capital bonds. For perpetual bonds, the trading volume of 1Y/3Y is small, and 5Y is significantly net - sold. For ordinary financial bonds, the trading volume in the 3Y term is the largest, and they are mostly net - sold, except for increasing allocation during bond market corrections [5][16]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms Have High - Frequency Band - trading of Two - eternal Bonds - Securities firms show obvious trading - desk characteristics in the trading of two - eternal bonds, frequently switching between buying and selling with a relatively large scale. They have a high preference for 1Y/3Y/5Y two - eternal bonds and ordinary financial bonds [5][21]. 3.2.3 Funds Are the Main Buyers of Two - eternal Bonds - Funds tend to make trend - based allocations to two - eternal bonds. They continuously buy during bull markets and sell significantly during bear markets, driving market trends. In recent years, with the overall decline in the interest rates of two - eternal bonds, funds have shown a trend of increasing allocation [5][30]. 3.2.4 The Institutional Behavior Characteristics of Wealth Management in Two - eternal Bonds Are Diverse - In most periods, the trading characteristics of wealth management in two - eternal bonds are not obvious, showing an overall allocation trend. At some points, they take profits during bull markets, buy during bear markets, and continue to buy during volatile markets [5][37]. 3.2.5 Insurance Also Acts as a Stabilizer in the Bond Market - Insurance institutions generally net - sell two - eternal bonds but increase allocation during market corrections, acting as stabilizers [5][46]. 3.2.6 Other Types of Institutions Prefer to Continuously Allocate 5Y Two - eternal Bonds - Other types of institutions have a greater preference for continuously allocating 5Y two - eternal bonds [6][52]. 3.3 How to Use the Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds? - It is relatively difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends due to factors such as the synchronicity of institutional behavior indicators, less trading data, and data delays [7][61]. - However, the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. When investors expect interest rates to continue to decline, the trading desks of two - eternal bonds will continue to buy, compressing the spread. When the expectation weakens, the buying power will decrease [7][61]. - The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds, which are the smoothed overall purchases of funds and securities firms in 5Y secondary capital bonds and 5Y perpetual bonds. When these indicators decline significantly and approach zero, it indicates that the trading desks are less optimistic about buying two - eternal bonds for capital gains. This year, there were two such time points in January 15th and late April, corresponding to subsequent bond market corrections or fluctuations [8][62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, both the total CPI and core CPI increased, with the core CPI performing better than expected. The CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year (expected 2.64%, previous 2.4%), and 0.3% month-on-month (0.2 pct higher than the previous month). The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (expected 2.95%, previous 2.8%), and 0.2% month-on-month (0.1 pct higher than the previous month). Neither the CPI nor the core CPI year-on-year has exceeded the inflation level in February this year [2]. - In June, both energy and food in the CPI rebounded. The energy sub - item increased by 0.9% month-on-month (previous - 0.1%), with gasoline prices rising by 1% month-on-month, the largest increase since January. The food sub - item increased by 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the overall CPI increase, and 0.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in fruits, vegetables, and beverages [3]. - From the perspective of demand - sensitive indicators, the prices of used and new cars continued to decline, indicating that tariff shocks are weakening consumer demand and confidence. The US consumer confidence index dropped to 93% in June (previous 98.4%). However, the used - car wholesale market has seen strong growth, and the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows that the wholesale price increased by 6.3% year-on-year and 1.59% month-on-month, which may pose an inflation risk in the future and restrict the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. From the perspective of demand - lagging indicators, the furniture price growth rate increased to 1.0% month-on-month (previous 0.3%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices. The price divergence between essential and non - essential goods is intensifying [4]. - The increase in the service - type CPI was far lower than the overall CPI increase, only returning to the level in April. Housing inflation may be at an inflection point, and the rent levels of various housing - related items have declined. Many service - type CPI sub - items, such as accommodation and motor vehicle insurance, decreased month-on-month, while only medical care services and other essential services increased [5][7]. - Tariff - related commodity prices started to rise, and consumers began to favor low - price commodities. The supply chain has recovered after the tariff suspension, but the accumulated costs of enterprises are being transferred to the retail end. From the demand perspective, consumers are reshaping their consumption structure, giving up service - type consumption and turning to essential and low - price goods [7]. - The inflation pattern has entered a tug - of - war between the one - time push of tariff costs and the trend of weakening endogenous demand. The "tariff cost pushing up inflation" and "salary slowdown and weakening demand" are in a two - way game for prices. In the future, the prices of commodities relying on imports in the supply chain are likely to rise, but it may be a one - time adjustment. Currently, demand has shown a marginal weakening. If there is no special intervention, consumers will reshape the demand pattern. The Fed's attitude towards tariffs is still uncertain, and there are different expectations for future interest - rate cuts [6][7][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Charts - **CPI and Core CPI Year - on - Year**: The chart shows the year - on - year trends of the US CPI and core CPI, along with their predicted values [15][16]. - **CPI and Core CPI Month - on - Month Trends**: These charts display the month - on - month trends of the CPI and core CPI in 2020 - 2025, allowing for comparisons across different years [17]. - **CPI Sub - item Seasonally - Adjusted Month - on - Month and Year - on - Year Situations**: This table presents detailed data on the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI sub - items from July 2024 to June 2025 [19][22]. - **International Oil Prices and Used - Car Wholesale Prices**: The international oil prices increased in June due to geopolitical risks but started to decline in July. The used - car wholesale prices showed strong growth [20][21]. - **Rent Level Leading Indicators and Supply Chain Pressure**: The rent level leading indicators are on a downward trend, and the supply chain pressure has returned to equilibrium, but sales have declined [24]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Core CPI Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the core CPI growth is narrowing. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the inflation rate, it may lead to a "wage - price" spiral [25][26][28]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Productivity Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the productivity growth is widening. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the productivity growth, it may lead to a vicious cycle [25][27][28]. 2. Risk Warning - No relevant content will be included as per the requirements

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The development of generative AI models is characterized by a parallel evolution of open-source and closed-source models, with major players like Google, Adobe, OpenAI, and ByteDance intensifying competition in closed-source models while open-source models lower barriers for small developers [3][4][19] - Generative AI is making significant inroads in the film industry, enhancing quality across various stages of production, including script generation, character modeling, animation, and post-production [4][6] - In the gaming sector, generative AI is facilitating content generation and interactive scenarios, allowing for personalized player experiences through NPC interactions and dynamic responses [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. AI Video and Image Generation Model Future Outlook - The AI video and image model technology is rapidly evolving, with both closed-source and open-source models being developed by leading companies [19][20] - The focus is shifting towards 3D generation models and multi-modal integration, enhancing capabilities in content generation for film and gaming [20][25] 2. Runway - Runway has released several iterations of its generative models, with Gen-1 focusing on video editing, Gen-2 enabling text-driven video generation, and Gen-4 improving coherence and user prompt interpretation [51][52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou are highlighted for their advancements in generative AI models, with Tencent's Hunyuan model and Alibaba's QVQ-72B-Preview leading the way in the industry [9][19] - The report suggests monitoring companies that are continuously investing in model development and achieving initial commercial success, including Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others in the gaming and film sectors [9][19]