策略研究 · 周度报告 地缘风险缓和、港股反弹回升 2025年06月29日 核心观点: 分析师 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23, 港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13, ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 地缘风险缓和、港股反弹回升 2025年06月29日 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23, 港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13, 地方两会对 ...

Profit Trends - From January to May 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The operating revenue for the same period was CNY 54.76 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[1] - In March 2025, profits saw a significant monthly decline of 9.1% year-on-year[1] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% in May 2025, indicating a marginal decline after a period of expansion[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% year-on-year in May, widening from a previous decline of 2.4%[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded 4.97% from January to May, with a year-on-year drop of 0.22 percentage points[1] Inventory and Costs - As of May 2025, finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.65 trillion, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has been declining[1] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.5 days, up by 4.1 days year-on-year, indicating cash flow pressure on enterprises[1] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.61, an increase of CNY 0.24 year-on-year, while operating expenses decreased by CNY 0.14 to CNY 8.29[1] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[1] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, highlighting challenges in the consumer goods sector[1] - The "new consumption" sectors, such as smart consumer devices, showed significant profit growth, with increases of 101.5% in profit for smart devices[1]

Key Insights - The report highlights the performance of various investment strategies during the period from June 10 to June 23, with low-price enhancement strategy, improved dual-low strategy, and high-price high-elasticity strategy recording returns of 0.0%, -0.7%, and -2.2% respectively, against a benchmark of -0.2% [2][3] - Year-to-date performance shows these strategies yielding 4.5%, 15.7%, and 24.6% respectively, with cumulative excess returns of -0.4%, 10.8%, and 19.7% [2][3] - The report notes a significant increase in solar and wind power installations, with solar power achieving a record monthly installation of 92.92 GW in May, contributing to a total of 1,084.45 GW installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 56.9% [6][7] - The coal price drop is expected to improve the market outlook for thermal power generation, suggesting a focus on companies with significant coal exposure and minimal reductions in long-term electricity prices for 2025 [9] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to enhance inclusivity and adaptability, allowing unprofitable companies to list under specific standards and introducing new measures to support technology firms [12][14] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The low-price enhancement strategy outperformed during the recent market adjustment, while the improved dual-low and high-price high-elasticity strategies still showed significant excess returns year-to-date [2][3] - The report provides a detailed list of holdings for each strategy, indicating a diversified approach across various sectors [3][6] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report emphasizes the robust growth in renewable energy installations, particularly solar and wind, which are expected to continue expanding due to favorable policies and market conditions [6][7] - The anticipated increase in renewable energy capacity aligns with national energy goals, suggesting a positive outlook for green energy investments [9] Group 3: Sci-Tech Innovation Board - The "1+6" policy is a significant reform aimed at revitalizing the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with measures designed to attract more technology companies and improve the listing process for startups [12][14] - The report notes the current trading activity and performance metrics of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a mixed market response but potential for future growth [12][13]

Computer Industry - The computer industry has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 since the beginning of 2025, driven by the Deepseek catalyst, with Q1 showing overall strength before a pullback in Q2 due to annual report season and tariff issues [2][3] - The second half of 2025 presents a good opportunity for investment in AI, as the current domestic AI investment shows a mismatch between short and long-term needs. The "new supply-side reform" is expected to create significant investment opportunities through consumption creation, investment quality improvement, and export upgrades [2][3] Mechanical Industry - The mechanical sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.04% since the beginning of 2025, with notable performance in wind power equipment, robotics, and lithium battery equipment. The first quarter of 2025 saw a marginal recovery in mechanical enterprise performance, although gross margins slightly declined [7][8] - The second half of 2025 is expected to focus on new investment opportunities in humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and controllable nuclear fusion, alongside a recovery in domestic demand and stable export performance in engineering machinery [7][10] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has seen a recovery in domestic travel and logistics demand since early 2025, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and supply-demand optimization. The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a supply gap, leading to improved profitability [12][13] - The logistics sector is experiencing unexpected growth in demand, with the introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles providing cost-reduction opportunities and reshaping the industry landscape [12][14] Defense Industry - The defense industry is experiencing a bottoming out of performance, with Q1 2025 revenue at 109.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%. However, the decline in net profit is expected to stabilize, with a focus on domestic production and military trade as key investment themes for the second half of 2025 [16][19] - Geopolitical tensions are driving demand for military trade, with expectations for China's global market share to increase significantly by 2030, creating substantial growth opportunities in the defense sector [17][19] Company Focus: Geokang Technology - Geokang Technology, formerly known as Geokang Instruments, is focusing on intelligent monitoring terminals and related products, with plans to enhance its core competitiveness through increased R&D investment and technological innovation [21][24] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from strong downstream demand in sectors such as water conservancy, energy, and transportation, with significant investments expected in these areas through 2025 [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company, previously known as "基康仪器股份有限公司," plans to change its name to "基康技术股份有限公司" to better reflect its focus on intelligent monitoring terminals and related products [6]. - The company has established a strong brand image in the field of engineering safety monitoring, leveraging its proprietary technologies in various sensor types [6]. - The downstream industries are expected to experience robust growth, driven by government initiatives in water conservancy, energy, and transportation sectors, which will enhance market demand for the company's products [6]. - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness through increased R&D investment and technological innovation, positioning itself for high-quality development [6]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024A: 356.80 million - 2025E: 406.14 million - 2026E: 456.65 million - 2027E: 522.14 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 8.57%, 13.83%, 12.44%, and 14.34% respectively [2][8]. - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024A: 77.02 million - 2025E: 89.58 million - 2026E: 102.80 million - 2027E: 122.52 million - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 5.99%, 16.32%, 14.75%, and 19.18% respectively [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.46 - 2025E: 0.54 - 2026E: 0.62 - 2027E: 0.73 [9]. - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024A: 35.55 - 2025E: 30.57 - 2026E: 26.64 - 2027E: 22.35 [2][8].

Key Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) strategies in investment, with a focus on the integration of ESG factors leading to significant returns, such as a 35% annualized average return for dividend ESG integration strategies [5][4] - The North Exchange (北交所) is expected to maintain high trading activity and market attention due to the introduction of new indices and ongoing IPOs, with a recommendation to focus on emerging industries like artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [10][9] - The collaboration between Meta and Oakley to launch AI glasses marks a shift towards specialized products in the smart eyewear market, emphasizing performance in sports and outdoor activities [15][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the extension of diamond export bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo are anticipated to drive up gold and diamond prices, with a noted 44.15% increase in diamond prices since the export ban [21][19] - The impact of JD.com's entry into the OTA (Online Travel Agency) market is expected to be limited, as existing players like Ctrip and Tongcheng maintain competitive advantages despite JD's zero-commission strategy [26][25] ESG Strategies - ESG policies are becoming more standardized and mandatory, with regulatory bodies requiring companies to disclose sustainability reports and implement ESG frameworks [2] - The performance of ESG strategies has shown positive results, with the central state-owned enterprise ESG selection strategy yielding a total return of 6% over the past three months, outperforming the market [4] - The report indicates a growing trend in public funds towards ESG passive investment strategies, with significant allocations to sectors like electronics and biomedicine [3] North Exchange Insights - The North Exchange has seen a notable performance in its indices, particularly the North 50 index, which has outperformed other indices in the first half of 2025 [7] - The report anticipates an increase in merger and acquisition activities driven by supportive policies, enhancing the growth prospects for companies listed on the North Exchange [8] - The focus on "specialized and innovative" companies is expected to attract institutional investment, with a total market value of institutional holdings reaching 1,233.53 billion yuan [8] Electronic Industry Developments - The launch of the Oakley Meta HSTN AI glasses signifies a new competitive landscape in the smart eyewear sector, with a focus on sports applications and enhanced user experience [15][14] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of AI smart glasses, with Ray-Ban Meta sales rising by 208.82% year-on-year, indicating a growing acceptance of smart eyewear among consumers [16] Precious Metals Market - The report discusses the potential for rising gold prices due to increased global uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, alongside the impact of geopolitical tensions [21][19] - The extension of the diamond export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to further tighten supply and increase prices in the global market [21] OTA Industry Analysis - JD.com's entry into the OTA market is seen as a challenge to existing players, but the report suggests that the overall impact on the industry structure will be minimal due to the competitive advantages held by established companies [26][25] - The OTA market still has growth potential, with only 40% penetration in online accommodation bookings, indicating room for expansion [26]

Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 9.84% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 12 percentage points, driven by the influx of incremental funds and adjustments in public fund allocations [2][4] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential improvement in bank performance due to a combination of credit expansion, controlled interest margins, and enhanced asset quality expectations driven by policy support [2][3] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on quality city and rural commercial banks, capitalizing on structural opportunities, and leveraging the expansion and quality improvement of major broad-based index ETFs [4] Group 2: Non-Banking Sector - The securities sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 7.99% year-to-date as of June 16, 2025, despite a strong performance in Q1 where 42 listed securities firms reported a 20.18% increase in revenue [7][8] - The anticipated continuation of accommodative monetary policy and ongoing capital market reforms are expected to support liquidity and improve the operational environment for the securities industry [7][8] - Investment recommendations focus on strong leading brokers, those likely to enhance core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, and brokers with differentiated wealth management features [9] Group 3: Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, driven by a recovering global economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][13] - Gold prices are projected to continue their bullish trend, supported by increased global demand and geopolitical tensions, while copper is seen as a favorable investment opportunity due to long-term supply-demand dynamics [13][14] - The strategic value of rare earth materials is highlighted, with domestic supply controls and increased export demand likely to drive price improvements in the rare earth sector [14][15] Group 4: Communication Sector - The communication industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and the optimization of capital expenditure by operators [18][19] - The second half of 2025 is expected to present new investment opportunities in the AI computing industry chain, satellite internet, and quantum technology, with significant growth potential in these areas [18][19] - Investment strategies emphasize the importance of operator profitability, cash flow improvements, and the growth of the optical communication sector [20] Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction industry is projected to benefit from increased infrastructure investments, particularly in water conservancy and energy projects, as part of the government's economic stabilization efforts [23][24] - Major projects in the western region, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, are expected to inject significant investment into the construction sector [24][25] - Investment recommendations focus on infrastructure growth, high dividend yields, and sectors such as low-altitude economy and cleanroom engineering [25] Group 6: North Exchange - The North Exchange has maintained a high level of trading activity, with a recent decline in the North Exchange 50 index by 2.55% [27][28] - The market is expected to remain attractive for medium to long-term investments, particularly in companies with strong growth potential and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [31] - The focus is on companies that emphasize diversified layouts and industry chain collaboration, as well as state-owned enterprises with stable operations and strong growth capabilities [31]

Macro Overview - The fiscal data for January to May 2025 shows a continuation of the improvement trend in both total and structural aspects, with strong expenditure support for economic growth [2][3] - The overall expenditure growth rate slightly declined, leading to a small drop in the difference between broad fiscal expenditure and revenue growth, but it remains at a high level [3][4] Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by a series of policies and low inflation levels [10][13] - The technology sector presents significant investment opportunities due to strong policy support and favorable earnings growth, while consumer sectors like pharmaceuticals and discretionary consumption are also expected to improve [13][10] - The Hong Kong stock market's absolute valuation is relatively low compared to global equity markets, indicating high medium to long-term allocation value [10][13] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities arising from structural adjustments in credit bonds and the ongoing demand for convertible bonds [15][19] - The credit bond supply has shown structural contraction, with a focus on opportunities for spread compression supported by demand [20][19] Textile and Apparel Industry Strategy - The textile and apparel industry is witnessing a recovery in investment sentiment, driven by policies promoting domestic consumption and improvements in consumer spending [23][24] - The second half of 2025 is expected to focus on new consumption opportunities driven by policy, demographic changes, and technological advancements, particularly in sectors like ready-to-drink beverages and sports events [24][25] Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The food and beverage industry has shown slow overall demand recovery, with traditional consumption lagging behind new consumption trends [31][32] - New consumption categories such as snacks and innovative soft drinks are expected to outperform, while traditional sectors may still hold investment value due to stable competitive dynamics [31][32] Public Utilities and Power Sector Strategy - The power sector, particularly thermal power, is expected to benefit from declining coal prices, enhancing profitability despite challenges in electricity demand [34][35] - The water and nuclear power sectors are also projected to maintain growth, supported by favorable financial conditions and long-term demand [34][35]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a 4.66% month-on-month decrease in the average transaction area of 30 major cities as of June 20, totaling 243,800 square meters, and a year-on-year drop of 27.79%[3] - Passenger car retail sales from June 1-15 reached 706,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.1%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1721.5, a month-on-month increase of 27.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The steel production capacity utilization rate remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate at 83.84% and the rebar operating rate at 42.31% as of June 21[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased by 0.31 percentage points to 78.29%[2] - The price of rebar increased by 3.11% while iron ore prices decreased by 3.43% as of June 20[2] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a 0.17% week-on-week decrease in pork prices, while the average wholesale price of key monitored vegetables rose by 0.65%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates a strong trend in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 9.35% and 10.07% respectively[2] Fiscal and Investment - Ordinary government bond issuance accelerated to 285.1 billion, reaching 50.5% of the annual issuance target[2] - Special bonds (excluding debt restructuring) issued amounted to 950 billion, with a progress rate of 38.0%[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged this month, with expectations for a potential 20 basis points cut in the third quarter[4] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased from 7.9 trillion to 8.3 trillion, reaching historical highs[4] Overseas Macro - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with ongoing military conflicts affecting oil supply concerns[5] - U.S. hard data continues to decline, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious, maintaining guidance for two rate cuts this year[5] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with auto sales dropping by 3.9%[6] - The U.S. housing starts annualized figure decreased to 1.256 million units, reflecting weakened investment in real estate[6] Risk Warning - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and consumer confidence recovery not meeting expectations[7]