证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突的涟漪 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：地缘冲突的涟漪 6 月 9-13 日，权益市场高位回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5087.26，较 6 月 13 日下跌 1.07%。 小微盘行情显著承压，是本周市场较为关键的边际变化，这 或是在主动调和积累已久的结构性矛盾。5 月底中证 2000 拥 挤度达到历史高位，这对小微盘行情的支撑逻辑提出了更高 的要求。而地缘冲突的加剧则给了市场主动释放风险的窗 口，中证 2000 加速下跌。 ► 海外线索：以伊冲突延续，美联储继续暂停降息 本周以伊冲突延续，未见缓和迹象。同时，美联储继续暂停 降息，表态略偏鹰，预测偏向"滞胀"，推动美元走强。此 外，美国核心零售韧性仍存，汽车零售大幅放缓。日本方 面，日本央行维持利率不变，明年起削减购债规模。 整体来看，海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变，继关税之后， 中东地缘冲突爆发，美国搅入其中，进一步推升不确定性。 此外，距离 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 固态电池产业化推进，美国储能补贴有望延长 特斯拉 Optimus gen3 推进研发 随着国内外企业布局&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落地 时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替 代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深 度受益。 2.新能源汽车 固态电池产业化不断推进 我们认为，电池技术的升级迭代始终是终端需求扩大的核心推 动力，固态电池凭借高能量密度以及高安全性等优势，成为确 定性的下一代电池技术方向。随着电池技术的成熟以及产业链 配套的完善，固态相关新产品有望陆续发布、产能建设不断落 地、终端性能预计持续获得验证，固态电池的产业化进程加 速。材料、电池、设备等全产业链各环节均有望实现迭代升 级，看好具备技术优势、订单率先落地以及实现放量的公司。 3.新能源 美国参议院修订美丽大法案，储能补贴有望延长 我们认为，此次美国修订后法案延长了储能 ITC 补贴时间+放松 补贴门槛，若该法案通过，则明确利好美国大储市场景气度。 目前美国仍是高溢价高盈利市场，此次放 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Stablecoins are emerging as a new global digital currency solution, characterized by asset anchoring, low volatility, and high settlement efficiency, becoming essential tools for on-chain payments and cross-border settlements. The current phase is marked by accelerated policy development and the establishment of compliance frameworks, transitioning stablecoins from a gray area to institutionalized development. A diverse ecosystem of stablecoins is expected to coexist in the future [2] - Real World Assets (RWA) emphasize the digital circulation of real-world assets (such as photovoltaic and real estate rights) through on-chain verification and mapping. The initial focus is on green energy and industrial equipment assets, with preliminary mechanisms for on-chain yield mapping and cross-border issuance established. RWA is transitioning from a technical concept to a verifiable and tradable asset form, entering a phase driven by practical demand [2] Summary by Sections 01 Stablecoins: A Global Digital Currency Solution - Stablecoins are designed to maintain price stability, typically pegged to fiat currencies or commodities, and are increasingly used for transactions and value storage. They play a crucial role in the volatile cryptocurrency market, particularly in cross-border payments [10] - The development of stablecoins in Hong Kong is supported by the establishment of a digital currency infrastructure, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) initiating the digital Hong Kong dollar project and conducting trials for tokenized asset settlements [16][19] - The HKMA's regulatory sandbox for stablecoin issuers is progressing, with several institutions participating in testing mechanisms for issuance and reserve management [19] 02 RWA: From Concept to Implementation - RWA is defined as non-digital assets and related rights that are tokenized for on-chain trading. As of June 2025, the total value of global on-chain RWA assets has surpassed $23.3 billion [36] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world, enhancing liquidity and efficiency in RWA transactions, and enabling innovative financial products [37][41] - The integration of stablecoins with RWA facilitates cross-border payments and reduces transaction costs, making it easier for investors to engage in fragmented asset investments [44] 03 Industry Chain and Development Status: Policy-Driven, Compliance-Enhanced - The industry is supported by a three-tier structure: upstream providing technology and compliance support, midstream focusing on asset tokenization, and downstream involving applications in payments and investments [58] - The overall industry is still in an exploratory phase, with significant room for improvement in infrastructure, legal frameworks, and application ecosystems [58] - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting key players such as Ant Group and JD.com, which are actively developing stablecoin and RWA projects [74][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second - hand housing transaction in 15 cities increased slightly week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed since June. The new housing transaction in 38 cities increased week - on - week but the year - on - year decline widened [1][2]. - The second - hand housing in first - tier cities decreased week - on - week for five consecutive weeks, while the new housing increased week - on - week. The second - hand and new housing in second - and third - tier cities showed different trends [1][2][3]. - In key cities, the second - hand and new housing transactions in first - tier cities had different performance in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year changes. The housing prices in first - tier cities also showed a downward trend in May [24][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Volume Observation 3.1.1 Second - hand Housing - In the week of June 13 - 19, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.34 million square meters, with a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The year - on - year growth rate since June narrowed to 1% [1]. - First - tier cities' second - hand housing decreased week - on - week for five consecutive weeks, with a 2% decline. Among them, Shenzhen and Shanghai decreased by 10% and 4% respectively, while Beijing increased by 5%. Second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing increased week - on - week for two consecutive weeks, with growth rates of 4% and 14% respectively [1][2]. 3.1.2 New Housing - In the week of June 13 - 19, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 2.68 million square meters, with a week - on - week increase of about 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The year - on - year decline was larger than that in previous months [2]. - First - tier cities' new housing increased week - on - week by 2%, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increasing by 32%, 8%, and 8% respectively, while Shanghai decreased by 16%. Second - tier cities' new housing decreased week - on - week by 1%, and third - tier cities' new housing increased week - on - week by 18% [2][3]. 3.2 Key City Observation 3.2.1 First - tier Cities - Second - hand housing: In the week of June 13 - 19, the transaction area of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased week - on - week by 2%. Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased year - on - week, while Beijing increased. In June 1 - 19, Beijing and Shenzhen increased year - on - month, while Shanghai decreased [24]. - New housing: In the week of June 13 - 19, the transaction area of new housing in first - tier cities increased week - on - week by 2%. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased, while Shanghai decreased. In June 1 - 19, Beijing and Shanghai increased year - on - month, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreased [24][25]. 3.2.2 Other Key Cities - In Hangzhou, the second - hand and new housing transaction areas decreased week - on - week by 7% and 1% respectively in the week of June 13 - 19. In Chengdu, the second - hand housing transaction area increased week - on - week by 5%, and the new housing transaction area decreased week - on - week by 17% [24][25]. 3.3 Price Observation - In May, the second - hand housing price index in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The month - on - month decline was 0.7%, and the year - on - year decline was 2.7%. The new housing price index in first - tier cities also showed a downward trend, with a month - on - month decline of 0.2% and a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [50].

证券研究报告 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月20日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0616-0620） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月21日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 2 目录 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 40 50 60 15.17 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4] Core Insights - Junting Hotels is a leader in mid-to-high-end hotel management, leveraging strong operational capabilities to create a business and leisure service matrix [1][14] - The company is expanding its franchise business and collaborating with international hotel giants to enhance inbound tourism and business travel demand [2][3] - The company aims to transform into a hotel management platform, with multiple revenue streams expected to contribute to growth [8] Company Overview - Junting Hotels operates under three main brands: Junting, Junlan, and Jinglan, with a focus on unique cultural characteristics and tailored services [1][14] - The company has established a joint venture for franchise operations, targeting a thousand stores within three years, covering key urban areas and tourist cities [3][14] Financial Performance - The company has experienced revenue growth, with projected revenues of 806 million, 1.062 billion, and 1.437 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 31.8%, and 35.3% [8][10] - The net profit is expected to reach 64 million, 128 million, and 230 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.66, and 1.18 yuan [8][10] Industry Context - The hotel industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with an increasing focus on mid-range and high-end hotel chains, while luxury hotel chain growth is under pressure [41][44] - The demand for high-quality service experiences is rising, leading to a shift in consumer preferences towards mid-range and high-end hotels [41][44]

Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in financial performance for Ball Corporation in Q1 2025, with net sales reaching $3.097 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.5% and a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [1][8] - The cost of sales for Q1 2025 was $2.493 billion, which represents an 8.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [1][8] - The pre-tax profit for Q1 2025 was $229 million, showing a remarkable quarter-on-quarter increase of 3171.4% and a year-on-year increase of 126.7% [1][8] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was $179 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 496.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 95.1%, primarily due to the sale of the aerospace business in the previous year [1][8] Financial Performance by Region - North and Central America beverage packaging segment reported comparable operating profit of $195 million and sales of $1.463 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $192 million and $1.403 billion in Q1 2024, indicating growth driven by increased sales volume and pricing/product mix [2][9] - EMEA beverage packaging segment achieved comparable operating profit of $96 million and sales of $903 million in Q1 2025, up from $85 million and $810 million in Q1 2024, with growth in shipment volume and pricing/product mix, partially offset by currency effects [2][9] - South America beverage packaging segment reported comparable operating profit of $69 million and sales of $544 million in Q1 2025, compared to $55 million and $482 million in Q1 2024, reflecting positive performance [2][9] Outlook - The company plans to continue assessing the evolving trade landscape and its impact on business, believing that the direct effects of announced tariffs are manageable [6] - The company is actively collaborating with customers to mitigate the impact of aluminum price fluctuations and emphasizes local sourcing and production to reduce exposure to international trade volatility [6] - While the broader indirect effects of tariffs remain uncertain, the company currently does not foresee significant impacts on Q2 performance [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that Metro Mining achieved a record shipment of 184,000 wet tonnes of bauxite in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% to 1,096,600 tonnes in April-May 2025 [1][2] - The operational season was extended due to the benefits from the 2024 expansion project, which included the Ikamba floating terminal designed for safe loading in higher sea conditions [1][2] - In April 2025, Metro's shipment reached 424,700 wet tonnes, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, while May 2025 saw shipments of 671,900 wet tonnes, up 26% from May 2024 [3] - The company is on track to meet its 2025 shipment target of 6.5 to 7 million wet tonnes [3] Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 shipment volume reached 184,000 tonnes, marking a record for the Bauxite Hills rainy season [1] - A large-scale maintenance plan was successfully completed during the rainy season, including upgrades to loading systems and automation of the plant [2] - Approximately 80% of Metro's sales volume is negotiated quarterly, with expected offshore prices in Q2 2025 rising about 20% compared to Q4 2024 [2] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Metro's cash position was AUD 12.2 million [4] - The total secured debt financing amounts to USD 56.6 million, with USD 5.2 million drawn in the current quarter [4] - Metro has implemented a currency hedge with a nominal value of USD 50 million at an average exchange rate of AUD 0.68 per USD [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25-4.5% and paused rate cuts, indicating a preference for "higher for longer" monetary policy[3] - The dot plot shows that 7 out of 19 committee members expect no rate cuts this year, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards maintaining rates[5] - The Fed's economic forecasts for GDP in 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, indicating concerns about stagflation[4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%, respectively, highlighting inflationary pressures[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to increase PCE by approximately 0.5-0.6 percentage points, as tariffs raise import prices and domestic substitutes[4] - The labor supply is expected to decrease due to immigration restrictions, further limiting growth potential[4] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The Fed's dot plot predicts a policy rate of 3.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[6] - Market speculation suggests that the next Fed chair may be more dovish, potentially undermining the current "higher for longer" stance and risking a loss of Fed credibility[6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic, employment, and inflation trends remains elevated, with potential risks from fiscal and tariff policies[9]