证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 全国企业年金：规模稳增，首次公布 "近三年累计收益率"响应"长钱长投" [Table_Title2] 非银金融 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 人社部公布《2025 年一季度全国企业年金数据摘要》。截至 2025Q1 末，企业年金积累基金规模为 3.73 万 亿元，投资资产净值 3.70 万亿元，建立组合数 5,892 个，近三年累计收益率为 7.46%。 分析与判断: ► 企业年金规模稳步增长，长期收益亮眼。 企业年金规模稳步增长。截至 2025Q1 末，企业年金积累基金规模达到 3.73 万亿元，较 2024 年末增长 2.4%。其中，投资资产净值达 3.70 万亿元，较 2024 年底增长 2.6%。 企业年金长期收益亮眼。近三年（2022 年 4 月 1 日-2025 年 3 月 31 日）累计收益率达 7.46%。自 2007 年 以来，截至 2024 年，全国企业年金的年均收益率达 6.17%。其中，除 2008 年、2011 年、2022 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the range at 4.25-4.5%[1] - The dot plot indicates a preference for two rate cuts within the year, which is more optimistic than market fears of only one cut[1] - The Fed is inclined to wait for economic uncertainties to resolve before making further decisions[2] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively[3] - Core PCE inflation rate forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%[3] - Tariffs are expected to increase import prices, contributing to domestic inflation pressures[3] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts are around 48bp, with a possibility of only one cut if inflation continues to rise[4] - The dot plot shows a shift with more members supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy is expected to increase as the Fed's long-term projections are less reliable[5] Group 4: Leadership and Policy Implications - Concerns arise regarding the potential for a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026, which could undermine the Fed's independence[5] - If a new chair is influenced by the president, it may lead to a loss of credibility for the Fed and further depreciation of the dollar[5]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 存单的波动依然不大。1-19 日累计发行规模达到 2.5 万亿元之上，基本追平今年前五个月 2.8 万亿元的月 均值，与本月 4.2 万亿元的到期规模仅剩 1.7 万亿元左右的缺口。据 19 日的发行计划，1 个月国股行存单定价 在 1.60-1.62%，9 个月至 1 年期国股行品种定价在 1.63-1.65%，未体现出提价压力，季末银行负债端较为乐 观。 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：涨势依旧 现券交易主线继续围绕央行动态。早间陆家嘴会议开幕式上，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策，内容涉及面较 广，其中与债市关联性较高的政策是设立银行间市场交易报告库，高频汇集并系统分析银行间债券等金融子市场 交易数据。类似操作在 2024 年已有预演，因此，政策出炉并未对市场定价产生过多影响。不过，市场满怀期待 的"央行重启买债"及"国债缴准"并未在会议上被提及，这也使得债市行情略有减速，各期限国债活跃品种多 小幅上行，利差保护较足的老券、政金债、地方债品种收益率反而延续了下行趋势。 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 18 日，股 ...

► 生产经营情况 2025Q1 原铝净成品产量为 396,866 吨，同比略降 2%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 巴林铝业 2025Q1 铝产量为 39.69 万吨，实现利润 4820 万美元 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 18 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 尽管面临市场挑战，2025Q1 原铝销售量仍达到 374,809 吨，同 比增长 3%。 增值销售量（VAP）平均占总发货量的 71%，同比增长 5% （2025Q1 增值销售量为 265,657 吨，而 2024Q1 为 252,772 吨）。 e-Al Hassalah 节省了 3,090 万美元，而 2025 年的目标是 6,000 万美元。 ►财务业绩情况 2025Q1 利润为 1,810 万巴林第纳尔（4,820 万美元），同比下 降 25.9%，而 2024 年同期利润为 2,450 万巴林第纳尔（6,500 万美元）。公司 2025Q1 的基本和稀释后每股收益为 13 巴林第 纳尔，而 2024 年同期为 17 巴林第纳尔 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a 2% year-on-year increase in alumina production to 1.265 million tons and a 7% increase in electrolytic aluminum production to 298,000 tons in Q1 2025 [1] - The Worsley alumina plant produced 941,000 tons in Q1 2025, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, while Brazilian alumina production reached 324,000 tons, up 3.5% year-on-year [2][3] - The report indicates that the production targets for the fiscal year 2025 remain unchanged across various segments, including alumina and electrolytic aluminum [1][3][4] Production and Sales Summary - Worsley alumina sales were 910,000 tons, a 2% increase year-on-year, while Brazilian alumina sales were 323,000 tons, a 17% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Brazilian electrolytic aluminum production was 36,000 tons, a 38.5% increase year-on-year, while sales were 31,000 tons, a 3% decrease year-on-year [3] - Hillside electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 175,000 tons, with sales down 18% year-on-year to 171,000 tons [4][5] - Mozal electrolytic aluminum production increased by 22.5% year-on-year to 87,000 tons, with sales down 18% to 72,000 tons [5][9] Financial Performance - The company reported a net cash increase of $299 million, reaching $252 million, attributed to strong operational performance and the release of working capital [16] - The company received $100 million from a subsidiary of Newmont related to an agreement with Worsley Alumina, which is expected to contribute approximately $94 million in pre-tax earnings for the fiscal year 2025 [16][17] - The company has completed 94% of its $2.5 billion capital management plan, with $158 million expected to be returned to shareholders by September 12, 2025 [18][19] Project Development Updates - The Hermosa project saw an investment of $355 million in growth capital expenditures to advance the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project and Clark battery-grade manganese exploration [20] - The company invested $26 million in greenfield exploration opportunities across multiple countries, including Australia, the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Namibia, and Ireland [21] - An additional $48 million was invested in existing business and development exploration projects, with significant capital allocated to the Hermosa project [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is adjusting its fundraising project for the "Carbon Fiber and Heat Dissipation Precision Parts R&D and Production Project," increasing the total investment from 266 million to 743 million yuan to enhance production capacity and meet market demand [2] - A new fundraising project for "Key Components and Complete Machine Upgrading for Humanoid Robots" is introduced with an investment of 50 million yuan, aimed at enhancing R&D and system integration capabilities in high-end intelligent manufacturing [3] - The company has launched a 2025 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) to attract and retain key talent, with a target of 26.4 million shares, representing 0.38% of the total share capital [4][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 50.141 billion, 59.080 billion, and 69.267 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.42%, 17.83%, and 17.24% respectively [8] - The projected net profit for the same period is 2.500 billion, 3.403 billion, and 4.193 billion yuan, with growth rates of 42.58%, 36.10%, and 23.23% respectively [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.36, 0.49, and 0.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 50.141 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.500 billion yuan and a gross margin of 16.9% [10] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.99x, 16.89x, and 13.71x respectively [10] - The company aims for a net profit growth rate of not less than 10%/20%/30% for the years 2025-2027 compared to 2024 [7]

Market Performance - The domestic market showed mixed performance with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04% and the CSI 300 down by 0.09% [1][2] - The bond market is anticipating a resumption of central bank bond purchases, leading to a bullish sentiment among investors [4][5] Geopolitical Impact - Recent easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has led to a stabilization in market sentiment, although localized conflicts continue to pose risks [3][10] - Oil prices have seen fluctuations, with Brent crude rising by 2.06% amid concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The central bank's recent actions indicate a trend towards increased liquidity, with expectations of bond purchases and potential adjustments to reserve requirements for government bonds [4][6] - The market is speculating on the implications of these policies, which could lead to a steepening yield curve and improved supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [6][10] Sector Performance - The equity market remains in a consolidation phase, with defensive sectors such as coal, utilities, and oil & gas showing resilience, while technology sectors are experiencing a shift in focus towards AI wearable devices and brain-computer interface concepts [7][9] - There is a notable shift in capital flow from small-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks, indicating a potential change in investor sentiment and strategy [8] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in mid-cap stocks as they may attract interest due to their relative undervaluation compared to small-cap stocks [8] - The technology sector continues to be a focal point for investment, particularly in areas related to AI and stablecoins, driven by recent regulatory developments [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market reached a critical stage in June 2025, a high - incidence period for convertible bond credit events. The report reviews the 2024 convertible bond credit storm and seeks coping strategies [1][9]. - The 2024 credit shock was the most extensive in the history of the convertible bond market. The root cause was the weak performance of the underlying stocks, and there were also other factors such as issuer fundamentals, market structure, and institutional behavior [2][3]. - In 2025, the approach to convertible bond credit risks has changed. The probability of a continuous and significant decline in the equity market has decreased, reducing delisting risks and repayment pressure. It is recommended to appropriately explore opportunities for mispricing repair [4][73]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Revisiting the 2024 Credit Storm: A Lesson from History 3.1.1. Review of Seven Important Credit Storm Events - **Event 1: April 2024 - New Nine - National Policies and Delisting Rules Triggered a Small - Scale Credit Shock**: On April 12, 2024, the new Nine - National Policies and delisting rules were released, causing significant differentiation in the equity and convertible bond markets. Small - cap stocks were under pressure, and nearly a hundred convertible bonds fell more than 5% within two days. Investor sentiment became cautious. After the regulatory clarification, the market recovered, and there was an inflow of incremental funds, but it also laid the groundwork for subsequent adjustments [11][12]. - **Event 2: May 2024 - Concentration of Credit Events of Weak - Quality Individual Bonds Signaled the Brewing of a Major Credit Storm**: In late April, some convertible bonds were affected by ST or non - disclosure of annual reports. In May, credit events such as debt overdue and rating downgrades of Lingnan Convertible Bond, and rating downgrades of Sanfang and Hongtu Convertible Bonds shattered the recovery trend of low - price bond valuations [18]. - **Event 3: Mid - June 2024 - Doubts about the Capital Chain of Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds Led to Institutional Selling**: On June 19, due to concerns about the capital liquidity of a photovoltaic component convertible bond issuer and the actual controller's attempt to reduce holdings, there was a large - scale sell - off of photovoltaic convertible bonds, intensifying market credit concerns [23]. - **Event 4: Late June 2024 - Concentrated Rating Downgrades, Including Unexpected Large - Cap Bonds**: After the adjustment of photovoltaic convertible bonds, there was a concentrated rating downgrade. The rating downgrade of Wentai Convertible Bond on June 20 significantly exceeded expectations, suppressing institutional sentiment and increasing concerns about future rating adjustments [29]. - **Event 5: Self - Rescue of Shanying Convertible Bond**: Shanying Convertible Bond faced repayment pressure. After the issuer announced a series of self - rescue measures on June 21, the bond price rebounded. Eventually, with the recovery of the equity market, the bond's parity rose above the maturity repayment price, and the repayment pressure was greatly relieved [35][36]. - **Event 6: Guanghui Convertible Bond's Repeated Struggles and Final Delisting**: Due to industry and company - specific problems, Guanghui Convertible Bond's underlying stock price fell below the face value, triggering delisting risk. Despite efforts to boost the stock price, it still entered the delisting process on July 18, causing market adjustments [40][41]. - **Event 7: Lingnan Convertible Bond's Default Shocked the Market**: On August 14, 2024, Lingnan Convertible Bond announced its inability to pay principal and interest on schedule, becoming the first convertible bond to default in the market. Its default had a greater impact on the market than previous defaults [45]. 3.1.2. Scar Effect of the Credit Storm - The 2024 credit shock was the most extensive in history, with over 50% of convertible bonds falling below the bond floor, and the proportion of bonds falling below the face value was also at a historical high [47]. - The pricing anchor for weak - quality individual bonds was lost, making it difficult for investors to make decisions. However, considering industry cycles and issuer efforts, the bond floor can still be used as a pricing anchor for debt - oriented convertible bonds [51][52]. - In terms of market structure, cyclical sectors such as agriculture, new energy, and chemicals had a higher proportion of convertible bonds falling deeply below the bond floor. AAA - rated convertible bonds had stronger credit risk resistance [55]. 3.2. Essence and Enlightenment of the Credit Storm - **Root Cause**: The weak performance of the underlying stocks was the root cause of the 2024 convertible bond market decline. When the equity market was weak, credit events would amplify negative feedback. In addition, there were other factors such as low - risk - preference incremental funds, weak issuer fundamentals, regulatory tightening, and market structural "aging" [3][60][64]. - **Coping Strategies**: Monitor the equity market's small - cap sector. Avoid bonds with obvious risks, especially those with high delisting pressure. Adjust positions based on the credit impact on different - quality bonds. During the shock, allocate large - cap and near - bond - floor bonds. Institutions with stable liabilities can consider participating in mispriced markets, while those with sensitive liabilities should wait for positive equity signals [68][69].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience in its insurance business, driven by four core ecosystems that support high-quality growth. The total premium income is projected to reach 33.417 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.9% from 2018 to 2024, ranking eighth in the domestic property insurance industry and first in the internet property insurance market [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Insurance Business Performance - The company has established four ecosystems: Digital Life, Health, Consumer Finance, and Automotive, with Digital Life contributing 48.5% of total premiums, expected to reach 16.197 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 28.9% year-on-year. Health ecosystem premiums are projected at 10.338 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 23.8% [2][29] - The company has achieved underwriting profitability for four consecutive years, with a combined cost ratio of 96.9% in 2024, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency and risk control [30][72] 2. Technology Business - The technology segment has shown significant growth, with a revenue CAGR of 43% over six years, reaching 956 million yuan in 2024, marking a 15.3% year-on-year increase and achieving profitability for the first time [3][8] 3. Digital Banking - The digital bank, ZA Bank, leads in Hong Kong with total assets of 22.3 billion HKD in 2024, a 60% increase year-on-year, and a net income of 548 million HKD, narrowing its net loss by 42% to 232 million HKD [4][8] 4. Financial Forecasts - The company expects premium service revenue growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 14% for 2025 to 2027. Total operating revenue is projected to be 3.715 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 904 million yuan [9][11]

Market Overview - The equity market showed significant recovery on June 16, driven by the "buying on dips" mentality and expectations of incremental policies, with technology, real estate, and financial sectors leading the gains [1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rose by 0.35%, 0.25%, and 0.23% respectively, while smaller cap indices performed better, with the Wande Micro Cap Index and CSI 1000 increasing by 1.43% and 0.68% respectively [1] - The bond market saw a mixed performance, with short-term rates strengthening due to central bank support, while long-term rates remained volatile [1][4] International Context - The conflict between Israel and Iran has become a global focus, with markets pricing in that the war will not significantly escalate, leading to a decline in gold prices [2] - Economic data from May indicated pressure on the real estate sector, with new and second-hand home prices declining across major cities, prompting expectations for policy support [2][6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank continued to inject liquidity, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan on the first day of the tax period, leading to a decrease in overnight rates [3] - The stability in liquidity has kept the issuance rates of certificates of deposit steady, with rates for major banks remaining in the range of 1.62%-1.69% [3][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in media, communication, and computer industries, rising by 2.70%, 2.11%, and 1.99% respectively [5][6] - The real estate sector also performed well, with the SW Real Estate Index increasing by 1.85% due to positive policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market [6][8] - The banking and non-banking financial sectors saw gains of 1.32% and 1.09%, respectively, reflecting investor optimism regarding upcoming policy announcements [6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the market's recovery momentum is strong, with expectations for policy support playing a crucial role in the rebound [8] - It is recommended to look for investment opportunities in sectors with low valuations and strong fundamentals, such as electronics and utilities, particularly in the context of ongoing technology narratives and potential domestic replacements due to international sanctions [8]