财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 席分析师:李美岑 E S0160521120002 分析师:张洲驰 ·· S0160524070004 S /A 60524070003 025年 lli . UWLEN 国内母婴行业在政策支持、消费升级与供给变革的驱动下，呈现结构性增长机遇： 1、政策端，中央与此方政府持续推出生育补贴及降伟表育成本政策、有望推动生育率企稳回升。1从海外经验看，生育相关公共支出增加停望支持生育率回升，1980年后， 日、韩和南欧国家生育率急展下降。相比之下!(欧以及部分英语系国家的生育率出现最著的目元，这部分枢普遍先经历了家庭平均公共支出的僧长，表明外贴政策的生育率 的回升起到了一定的作用。2近年来中央球舞出台补贴、降低生养育成本等方面欧策鼓励生育，地方政府也纷纷出台生育、育儿孙、部分地区区对多家家庭会予任房外贴， 真金白银支持地方生育率提升。 2、帮求端，生育增量消费力增加、助力母婴市场在生育率下行背景下规模逆势增加：马婴市场增速超30P，家庭平均消费增返近10%更高于整体市场增速，背后是三大生育 增量解体消费意愿增加：1）生育多胎群体；当前多指占比逐步抬开，已至60+%；这 ...

计算机 / 行业专题报告 / 2025.05.18 AI 算力：数字经济的基石，大国博弈的焦点 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 陈梦笔 chenmb01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 4 月车市稳增，滴滴 L4 新车亮相》 2025-05-14 2. 《破局与增长：IDC 行业竞争战略与 市场格局重塑 》 2025-05-11 3. 《2025 年一季度总结：业绩企稳，AI 提速，加仓正当时》 2025-05-05 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -6% 8% 23% 38% 53% 计算机 沪深300 上证指数 ❖ 美国芯片管制法案体系脉络：从"全面防扩散"到"强制 AI 芯片位置 验证"。2025 年 5 月 13 日，美国商务部宣布撤销拜登政府此前发布的《人工 智能扩散规则》（AI Diffusion Rule）。同日，美国工业安全局（Bureau of Industry and Security，简称 BIS）颁布 General Proh ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a motorcycle business to an "AI + Vehicle" model, with a focus on smart driving and Robotaxi services, supported by strong capital and management backgrounds [8][14]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 89.66 billion, 102.92 billion, and 121.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 0.84 billion, 1.53 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan [8][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through four stages: starting with motorcycles, exploring new energy, undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, and now embracing the "AI + Vehicle" transformation [14]. - Its core business includes terminal operations (motorcycles and vehicles) and technology operations (smart driving solutions) [14][19]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant recovery in its automotive business, with a 117% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in Q1 2025 [23][24]. - The motorcycle business has maintained a stable cash flow, with a gross margin of 12.1% in 2023, showing an upward trend [26][29]. Smart Driving and Technology - The report highlights the importance of smart driving technology, which is categorized into Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and higher-level autonomous driving [39][41]. - The domestic policy environment is supportive of the autonomous driving industry, with multiple regulations and incentives in place to promote development [43][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenues of 89.66 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.45% [7][8]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 110.17% in 2025 [7]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to leverage partnerships with major players like Geely and AI firms to enhance its technology capabilities and market reach [8][19]. - The report notes that the company’s gross margin is currently below the average of comparable companies, but improvements are anticipated as AI-related businesses develop [32].

建筑装饰/ 行业投资策略周报/ 2025.05.18 金属价格上涨利好哪些建筑企业 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 8% 15% 建筑装饰 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《当前时点如何看"一带一路"板块》 2025-05-11 2. 《国内经营依旧承压，Q4 经营现金 流同比改善》 2025-05-05 3. 《己二腈需求稳步增长，国产替代或 进一步加快》 2025-04-21 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 关税缓和下宏观情绪修复，有色金属价格迎来普涨。5 月 12 日中美两国 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中国将在 90 天内将美国商品加征关税 从 125%降至 10%，美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品加征关税从 145%降至 30%， 双方降幅同为 91%，在中美关系阶段性缓和背景下，宏观情绪改善带动部分有 色金属价格上涨。此外，部分小金属受供需变动及地缘博弈等影响，价格也实 现较大涨幅。截至 5 月 16 日，铜、铝、铅、镍、锌、钴、钼 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, indicating a potential recovery in trade relations and a favorable environment for market performance in May 2025 [3][5]. - The focus is on growth themes and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds, with particular attention to the potential rebound in the supply chains related to Apple, real estate, and consumer sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The US plans to modify tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending 24% tariffs for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, certain tariffs imposed on US goods will be canceled [3][5]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, indicating a potential thaw in the trade conflict [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "red May," suggesting that external easing expectations are becoming a reality, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market [5]. - The focus is on growth catalysts and sectors that are currently underrepresented in fund allocations, with a specific emphasis on the potential for rebounds in previously oversold sectors [5]. Sector Focus - Short-term opportunities are identified in the supply chains related to Apple and real estate, which may experience a rebound due to the favorable negotiation outcomes [5]. - Mid-term attention is directed towards manufacturing exports, high-end consumer goods, and cultural services, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [5].

(0) 财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 1、5月7日，证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，政策旨在鼓励基金确定合理的业绩比较基准、规范投资行为。《推动公募基金高质 量发展行动方案》提出：1）建立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动管理费收取机制，根据其持有期间产品业绩表现确定具体适用管理费率水平。2）强化业 绩比较基准的约束作用，明确基金产品业绩比较基准的设定、修改、披露、持续评估及纠偏机制。 2、相关政策背景在于近三年跑赢业绩基准的主动基金占比偏低。2015年至今，主动基金相对业绩基准的表现在不同市场环境下波动较大，其中 2016-2018年、2022-2024年间，跑赢基准的基金占比持续偏低，这与基金配置长期偏离基准不无联系。此次强化约束有利于纠偏基金业绩比较基准 设立不合理、基金风格漂移的现象，强化投资者信心。 3、当前以沪深300、中证800、中证500为业绩比较基准的基金规模，占全部生动基金的71%，普遍低配金融、公用。截至1Q25，以沪深300/中证 800/中证500为业绩比较基准的主动基金规模合计约2.5万亿元，三类基金分别占3.5万亿元主动基金的48%/19%/4%。其中：a） ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a favorable opportunity for asset allocation in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in H-shares and A-shares, as they are expected to benefit from policy support and market recovery [2][6]. - The global economic outlook shows a gradual recovery, with China's economy improving and the U.S. facing potential economic challenges due to fiscal weaknesses [6][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. monetary policy, which is currently in a cautious stance, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [6][61]. Global Asset Strategy - Short-term allocation suggests favoring H-shares and small-cap A-shares, while medium-term strategies include A-shares and bonds [6]. - The report highlights a shift in global economic conditions, with China's economic indicators showing improvement, while the U.S. economy is experiencing a downturn [6][20]. - The report notes that U.S. monetary policy is in a state of observation, with potential rate cuts anticipated, which could influence market dynamics [6][61]. Market Performance - The report outlines that Chinese assets, gold, and currencies like the euro and yen have outperformed from March 16 to April 15, 2025 [10][13]. - A-shares and H-shares are expected to see increased capital inflows, benefiting from favorable policy changes and market sentiment [6][13]. - The performance of U.S. stocks is projected to decline, with concerns over trade policies and economic recession impacting market stability [6][13]. Economic Indicators - China's economic indicators, including PMI and credit growth, are showing signs of recovery, with March data exceeding expectations [20][58]. - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is facing challenges, with manufacturing and service sectors showing unexpected declines [20][66]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the U.S., as core CPI is showing signs of decline, which could influence future monetary policy [66]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the potential for easing tensions, which could positively affect market sentiment [6][26]. - China's ongoing consumer policy initiatives are expected to stimulate domestic consumption and support economic recovery [45][46]. - The report highlights the need for continued observation of U.S. fiscal policies and their implications for global markets [6][28].

Inflation Data Summary - In March, the U.S. CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth since June 2024[9] - Year-on-year CPI growth significantly dropped to 2.4%, indicating a substantial cooling of inflation[9] - Core CPI also fell to 2.8%, the lowest level since March 2021[9] Energy and Commodity Prices - The year-on-year growth rate for the energy component of CPI fell to -3.3%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Brent crude oil prices averaged $72.7 per barrel in March, declining to $71.5 per barrel in April due to OPEC+ production increases and concerns over U.S. tariffs[12] - Core commodity prices saw a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with used car, furniture, and clothing prices decreasing[17] Service Sector Insights - Core service inflation year-on-year growth decreased to 3.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[20] - The month-on-month growth rate for core services fell to 0.1%, driven by lower prices in auto insurance, airfare, and entertainment services[20] Market Expectations and Risks - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with projections rising to an average of 3.5 cuts for the year[26] - There is a potential risk of inflation rebounding due to the implementation of tariffs, which could raise inflation by at least 0.6% if a comprehensive 10% tariff is enacted without retaliation[3][29] - Risks include unexpected monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and a potential downturn in the U.S. economy[4][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential of blocking the Activin receptor (ActR) signaling pathway to promote muscle growth, particularly in treating muscle atrophy-related diseases [4][9] - There is a substantial unmet clinical need for muscle-targeted therapies, especially for patients with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and those experiencing muscle loss due to aging or weight management [4][29] - The market for muscle-targeted therapies is projected to be large, with current SMA therapies generating approximately $4.5 billion in sales, indicating a significant opportunity for new treatments [4][33] Summary by Sections 1. ActR Pathway - The ActR pathway plays a crucial role in regulating muscle, blood, and bone through members of the TGFβ superfamily, including Myostatin [9] - Blocking the ActR pathway can effectively treat muscle atrophy by inhibiting Myostatin, which negatively regulates muscle growth [4][10] 2. Clinical Applications of ActR Pathway Blockade: Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) - SMA is a genetic neuromuscular disease caused by mutations in the SMN1 gene, leading to severe muscle atrophy and respiratory failure [22][23] - Current SMA therapies primarily target SMN protein, but they have limitations, highlighting the need for combined therapies that also address muscle atrophy [25][29] 3. Clinical Applications of ActR Pathway Blockade: Weight Management - Muscle loss is a significant issue not only in genetic diseases but also in aging populations, with a 1% annual muscle loss in individuals over 60 [36] - The widespread use of GLP-1RA medications has been linked to 25-40% muscle loss in users, creating a demand for therapies that preserve or enhance muscle mass during weight management [36] 4. Targeted ActRII Pathway Drugs - Apitegromab, developed by Scholar Rock, is a monoclonal antibody targeting latent Myostatin, showing promising results in Phase 3 trials for SMA and expected to submit for FDA approval [38][39] - Taldefgrobep, developed by BIOHAVEN, targets active Myostatin but did not meet primary endpoints in its Phase 2 trial for SMA, although it showed trends of benefit in certain subgroups [57][62] - GYM329, developed by Roche, specifically targets latent Myostatin and is currently undergoing clinical trials for various indications, demonstrating potential for muscle mass increase [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has deepened its collaboration with Huawei, focusing on digital transformation in finance and healthcare sectors, and has signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop innovative solutions [5] - The company is upgrading multiple AI products for government applications, integrating advanced models to enhance fiscal management capabilities [5] - The company is positioned as a key competitor in the fiscal IT sector, with expectations of revenue recovery driven by innovations in medical insurance and electronic vouchers [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 996 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 20.73%, and expected to reach 1.245 billion yuan by 2027 [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 165 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 205 million yuan by 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 58.08% in 2025 [4][5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 55.81 in 2025 to 44.99 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][5]