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&国内资产主要矛盾分析
Western Securities· 2024-05-30 14:57
本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作 或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 好的非常感谢大家来参加我们的会议那么我们看到今天有一个2024到2025年整个降碳行动的方案是落地了市场从这个落地之后整个关注度都比较高那我们是看到整个股票市场和商品市场都有所反应那么粗略来讲其实市场今天就直接是按照我们看21年当时的一个涨幅情况去做的一个这个定价合炒 和交易那个21年呢我们看到整个涨幅最大的前三名板块是硅铁焦炭和矇硅那今天的话我们看到这个商品市场这个硅铁是直接涨停了而由于这个钢铁是化有色建材它的这个碱炭呢对于煤炭的需求是有负面的影响所以我们看到商品市场这个煤炭是跌的那么在股票市 ...
低压电器出海近况跟踪
Western Securities· 2024-05-30 14:55
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Western Securities Research Institute and its clients Core Points and Arguments - The call serves as a disclaimer indicating that the information provided does not constitute investment advice and that individuals should make their own investment decisions and bear their own investment risks [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Western Securities disclaims any responsibility for losses incurred as a result of using the information from the call [1]
国务院《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》解读
Western Securities· 2024-05-30 04:56
感谢大家参加本次会议会议奥大好欢迎参加西部电信国务院2024到2025年节能降碳行动方案解读目前所有参会者均属于静音状态下面开始播报面子声明 宣布报告完毕后主持人可直接开始发言 谢谢 专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论 不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果予法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利好的 各位投资 大家好我是西部电信的首席杨静梅昨天晚上我们看到国务院印发的这个24到25年的节能状态行动计划 因为昨天晚上八点钟的时候我们也在主持另外一场电话会嘛所以导致这个解读的时间呢稍微偏晚了一点今天早上也影响各位领导的休息在这里先抱歉大家也是非常的感谢各位领导能够在那么早的时间然后接近我们的电话会我们这边呢就是 昨天晚上也对这个行动方案里边的一些表述以及一些详细的数据也去做了一个分析然后一方面就是说可能有些是我们跟二三年的甚至更早的一些数据做了对比也有一些可能我们会去跟之前的一些表述做一些 ...
、广州政策及市场探讨
Western Securities· 2024-05-30 01:42
本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作 或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 现场的各位投资人大家下午好我是西部证券的地产分析师翟苏宁那近期呢地产政策也是频出尤其这两天我们看到很多一线城市也是开始陆续松绑那市场的关注度也是非常高那对此呢我们是特别邀请了冰山指数的创始人李总来给大家反馈一下近期出政策的像上海深圳还有广州市场最新的一个真实的情况以及政策出台之后可能会对销售市场带来的一个影响 那么在开始之前我也先介绍一下冰山指数冰山指数是2017年4月份发布第一期到现在基本是能保持每周的一个更新频次已经连续稳健运营了七年时间也是得到了公众的一个认可因为之前我是在行业内有三年的从 ...
电表出海近况跟踪
Western Securities· 2024-05-29 14:24
本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作 或者股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利好的各位投资人大家好我是西部电信的首席杨静梅 今天是我们这一系列的这个电信这边出海系列的电话会的第二场那就是我们昨天的话是这个我们昨天是有一场关于这个低压器的一个出海的一系列的一个电话会那今天呢我们是有一个电表那明天的话我们还会有低压电器这块的一个出海的就是我们这是三场的一个系列电话会 那从去年以来呢我们这边持续的在推荐这个出海逻辑的这样一些标的像我们这段时间也是在强推像海星电力那这个今天呢我们也是非常荣幸然后邀请到了这个行业专家跟我们一起来探讨这个电表的这样一个投资机会那专家欢迎您也非常感谢您 ...
卷积神经网络(CNN)的深入探索可分离卷积的应用
Western Securities· 2024-05-29 10:07
大家好欢迎参加西部智能节特带来的卷积神经网络的深入探索可分离卷积的应用目前正在进入正确的状态下面开始播放的声明声明播放完毕后主教老师可开始发言谢谢本次电话会议服务于西部政卷研究所 本次会议内容 不得涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 大家好我是新闻电视剧院量化研究员冯程然后这次我们是又继续去研究深度学习的模型我们在去年的时候也是做过第一期去做深度学习模型的时候做的就是CNN模型卷迹神经网络但当时是受制于硬件设施设备的算力不够做的比较浅然后这次我们是升级了一下设备然后 在一些网络结构还是做一些实验上面做一些探索可能也发现了一些东西然后本次这个会议呢可能更多的是去跟大家一起去一起去看一下这个不同的这个超三数啊还有一些不同的一些实验开的对比然后一些结论可能就是说并不会给投资给就是说直接去指导大家去做一些投资建议 考虑到有些新来的朋友可能之 ...
金工量化技术分析洞察:地产扭转预期,静待低位补涨240519
Western Securities· 2024-05-28 02:55
金工量化周报 地产扭转预期,静待低位补涨 证券研究报告 2024年05月19日 技术分析洞察(2024.05.13-2024.05.17)  核心结论 分析师 投资建议:我们认为地产重磅政策将极大扭转经济预期,增强投资者信心, 或将陆续带动消费和顺周期等低位板块补涨。1)行业层面建议关注房地产、 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 建筑材料、建筑装饰、轻工制造和非银金融等板块,以上板块均得到北向资 13564917688 金增持。2)主题层面建议关注赛马概念、租售同权、恒大概念、MiniLED fengjiarui@research.xbmail.com.cn 等概念,近期检测到技术走势斜率的排名靠前。3)个股层面检测到锦盛新 相关研究 材、浙商证券等近期呈现横盘突破形态特征。 缩量持续上攻,修复低位板块—技术分析洞察 宽基指数:大市值创反弹新高。本周中证全指录得0.01%的跌幅,主要宽基 (2024.04.29-2024.05.10) 2024-05-12 珍惜底部筹码,积极开展布局—技术分析洞察 指数窄幅振荡,其中上证指数跌幅0.02%,创业板指跌幅0.70%,微盘股指 (20240422-20240 ...
西部研究地产链投资组合报告:地产链“拨云见日”投资组合240522
Western Securities· 2024-05-28 02:50
策略月报 地产链“拨云见日”投资组合 证券研究报告 2024年05月22日 西部研究地产链投资组合报告(20240522)  核心结论 分析师 本轮地产政策调整的逻辑之内、预期之外及前瞻判断。政策逻辑依然遵 循“风险驱动、多元目标、政策储备”逻辑,其超期预期的方面在于:1) 慈薇薇 S0800523050004 居民端政策力度大;2)政策发布距离4月30日政治局会议时间较短, 13916466506 各地4月30日前后的新增政策试点尚未满月。未来政策研判:1)财政 ciweiwei@research.xbmail.com.cn 政策预计持续发力,且是重中之重。2)根据“人地钱”联动逻辑,政策 将倾斜大城市。3)一线城市商品房限购政策或将进一步放开。4)地方 将更灵活地将地产政策纳入提升经济发展活力、吸引人才的政策组合, 寻找新的经济增长点。 本轮地产政策对市场整体的影响意义。政策含义比较大:本轮地产政策 有助于缓解下行风险、托底经济预期、稳定风险偏好。对于稳定房价预 期、缓解房企信用风险有一定的积极作用。对宏观总量影响暂时不大: 目前居民加杠杆的意愿和能力尚处于较弱的态势,新政对于地产销售的 提振作用仍有待 ...
软通动力(301236)首次覆盖:全面的数字技术服务提供商,赋能千行百业240521
Western Securities· 2024-05-28 02:50
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Softcom Power (301236.SZ), with a target price of 52 CNY, corresponding to a target market value of 492 billion CNY for 2024 [4][13]. Core Insights - Softcom Power is positioned as a leading digital technology service provider in China, focusing on empowering various industries through digital transformation. The company is expected to recover its growth trajectory in 2024 after facing short-term performance pressure in 2023 [1][25]. - The company has a strong partnership with Huawei, which enhances its capabilities in the digital technology space, particularly in areas like HarmonyOS and AI computing [1][2]. - The acquisition of Tongfang Computer is seen as a strategic move to complete the Huawei ecosystem layout and enhance the company's product offerings [1][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company anticipates revenues of 307.94 billion CNY, 351.70 billion CNY, and 408.41 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 7.03 billion CNY, 9.60 billion CNY, and 12.60 billion CNY for the same years [1][13]. - The original business segments focus on three main areas and four industries, collaborating with major players across various fields [1][20]. - The company faced a revenue decline of 7.97% in 2023, with a net profit drop of 45.15%, but is expected to return to profitability as it integrates the Tongfang acquisition and benefits from an economic recovery [1][25]. Huawei Ecosystem Participation - Softcom Power is a core participant in the Huawei ecosystem, implementing a "soft and hard integration" strategy across various platforms, including HarmonyOS and Euler [1][2]. - The company has established a subsidiary, Honghu Wanlian, to focus on HarmonyOS-related business, indicating a deep commitment to this ecosystem [1][20]. Future Growth Points - 2024 is identified as a critical year for the development of the HarmonyOS native application ecosystem, with Softcom Power leveraging its close collaboration with Huawei and its understanding of vertical industry applications [2][11]. - The demand for domestic computing power is expected to grow, with Tongfang Computer positioned to benefit significantly from this trend [2][11]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report projects a significant recovery in revenue growth rates, with estimates of 75.2% for 2024, followed by 14.2% and 16.1% in subsequent years [3][25]. - The valuation approach includes a PE ratio of 45x for the original business and a PS ratio of 1.3x for the Tongfang Computer business, leading to a combined target market value of 492 billion CNY [1][13].
西部“出海”系列专题总量联合行业:出海新思路、新主线、新组合240522
Western Securities· 2024-05-28 02:50
Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a strong investment opportunity in the "going global" theme, particularly in industries such as automotive, electronics, and renewable energy, driven by the fifth wave of international industrial transfer [1][10] Core Views - The fifth wave of international industrial transfer is driving Chinese enterprises to expand globally, with a focus on emerging markets such as Russia, India, Latin America, Africa, and ASEAN [1][10] - Chinese companies are transitioning from manufacturing exports to brand exports, with significant growth in non-financial outbound direct investment, reaching $130.1 billion in 2023, a 11.4% YoY increase [1][10] - The report identifies two key investment strategies: 1) leveraging global manufacturing recovery, particularly in sectors like home appliances, machinery, and e-commerce, and 2) focusing on brand and high-end manufacturing capacity exports, such as in the automotive, electronics, and renewable energy sectors [1][10] Sector Summaries Building Materials and Light Industry - The sector is benefiting from the recovery of overseas furniture demand, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and the transition from manufacturing to brand exports [1][26] - Key companies include **Leggett & Platt**, **Henglin Home Furnishings**, and **Xidamen**, which are leveraging cross-border e-commerce and overseas brand development [1][26] Automotive - Chinese automotive exports have seen significant growth, with passenger car exports reaching 4.14 million units in 2023, a 64% YoY increase [30][31] - New energy vehicle (NEV) exports have grown nearly threefold from 2021 to 2023, with NEVs accounting for 25% of total vehicle exports in 2023 [31][32] - Key companies include **Great Wall Motors**, **Leapmotor**, and **Yutong Bus**, which are expanding their presence in overseas markets [31][45] Renewable Energy (Electronics and New Energy) - Overseas demand for photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems remains strong, with US transformer supply-demand imbalances creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [46][56] - Key companies include **Sungrow Power Supply**, **Shangneng Electric**, and **Aikosolar**, which are leading in inverter and transformer exports [46][56] Communication - The communication sector is focusing on brand and manufacturing exports, with companies like **Huawei**, **ZTE**, and **Fiberhome** leveraging their technological advantages in global markets [2][22] Medical Devices - The global orthodontic market is growing steadily, with **Angelalign** expanding its international presence and opening new business opportunities [2][24] Textiles and Apparel - The sector is seeing a recovery in overseas orders, with companies like **Huali Group** and **Shenzhou International** benefiting from inventory reductions by global sportswear brands [2][24] Key Data Highlights - China's export share of global trade remained above 14% from 2020 to 2023, with non-financial outbound direct investment reaching $130.1 billion in 2023 [1][10] - NEV exports grew from 310,000 units in 2021 to 1.2 million units in 2023, with export prices increasing by 380% over the same period [31][33] - US transformer imports grew by 45.83% in 2023, with import dependency rising to 78% [56][57]