电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 1 日 688049.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 47.86 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 2.7 4.1 6.7 71.9 相对上证综指 0.4 3.7 7.1 62.2 (19%) 10% 40% 69% 98% 127% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 炬芯科技 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 146.14 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 112.27 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 6,994.09 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 425.54 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 珠海瑞昇投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 23.18 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 31 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《炬芯科技》20241031 《炬芯科技 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant transformation of telecom operators in China, emphasizing their shift from being mere providers of digital infrastructure to becoming leaders in technological innovation, particularly in AI and computing power [2][4][6] - The report indicates that the three major telecom operators are increasing their investments in computing power, with plans for substantial capital expenditures in this area, reflecting their commitment to this strategic shift [5][6] Group 1: Telecom Industry - The three major telecom operators in China have reported substantial growth in their computing power capabilities, with China Mobile achieving a scale of 29.2 EFLOPS, an increase of 19.1 EFLOPS, and significant revenue growth in their cloud services [4][5] - China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.7%, while its total cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion yuan, growing by 17.1% [4][5] - China Unicom has also expanded its computing power to over 17 EFLOPS, with cloud revenue increasing by 17.1% to 68.6 billion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Basic Chemicals Industry - Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, with a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% [8][9] - The company reported a record net profit of 2.379 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.36% [8][9] - The company’s sales of chemical products and new materials reached 7.3527 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.83%, with significant growth in international sales [10][11] Group 3: Computer Industry - CloudSai Intelligence reported a revenue of 5.623 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with a notable growth in its non-recurring net profit by 39.84% [13][15] - The company is actively involved in the development of smart computing and big data services, benefiting from the increasing demand for digital transformation solutions in various sectors [14][15] - The establishment of a major data center project in Shanghai is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in providing intelligent computing infrastructure [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The three major telecom operators are significantly benefiting from the performance growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing business under the AI wave. They are considered defensive growth assets within the AI chain, possessing both growth potential and scarcity [3][4]. - The operators have made substantial investments in computing power, with a clear commitment to transformation. By 2024, China Mobile's intelligent computing scale is expected to reach 29.2 EFLOPS, with a net increase of 19.1 EFLOPS. China Telecom's self-owned intelligent computing power will reach 35 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's intelligent computing scale will exceed 17 EFLOPS [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Additionally, consider partnerships with computing service providers such as Runze Technology, Pingzhi Information, Zhongbei Communication, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, and Unisplendour [3]. Performance Metrics - China Mobile's intelligent revenue surpassed 100 billion RMB, reaching 1,004 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4%. China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion RMB, growing by 195.7%, while its Tianyi Cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion RMB, up 17.1% [3]. - China Unicom's cloud revenue was 68.6 billion RMB, an increase of 17.1%, and its data center revenue was 25.9 billion RMB, up 7.4% [3]. Future Investment Outlook - Both China Mobile and China Telecom have indicated that their investments in computing power will have no upper limit. China Mobile plans to invest 37.3 billion RMB in computing power, accounting for 25% of its total capital expenditure. China Telecom plans a 22% year-on-year increase in computing investment, while China Unicom aims for a 28% increase [3][4]. Industry Positioning - Telecom operators are positioned as core assets in the domestic computing power chain, with the rapid development of AI driving growth in cloud computing and data center businesses. Their strong cash flow and high dividends provide a safety net, allowing them to withstand external shocks while maintaining valuation flexibility [3].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers achieved a record high performance in 2024, with revenue of 16.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.57%, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 43.82% [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport reported a revenue of approximately 5.492 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput [3][16] - SF Express surpassed a net profit of 10 billion yuan in 2024, marking a successful year for the company [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers' 2024 revenue reached 16.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, driven by participation in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport's revenue for 2024 was approximately 5.492 billion yuan, with passenger throughput increasing by 27.4% and cargo throughput by 29.3% [3][16] - SF Express reported a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, highlighting its successful market expansion [3][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 30.43% [4][52] - The shipping price index showed an increase, while dry bulk freight rates decreased [4][41] - The average daily flight operations in the international sector increased by 22.27% year-on-year in March 2025 [4][84] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 22.57 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.03%. The net profit for the year was RMB 60.72 billion, up 26.77% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations for 2024, driven by enhanced advantages in light hydrocarbon integration [4][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive position in the C3 industry, with successful project launches and an increase in high-value product exports [9][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion, with a net profit of RMB 60.72 billion, marking a 26.77% increase from the previous year [10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenues of RMB 133.73 billion, a 26.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 23.79 billion, up 70.47% year-on-year [11]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 12.26 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 showing continued growth in net profit and earnings per share [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects net profits of RMB 70.13 billion, RMB 95.67 billion, and RMB 114.35 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 2.08, RMB 2.84, and RMB 3.39 [6][12]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 10.8x, 7.9x, and 6.6x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][13].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250330 国际油价小幅上涨，溴素、制冷剂价格上涨 3 月份建议关注：1、三四月份旺季可能涨价的品种，如农化、纺织化学用品、制冷剂等；2、年 报季报行情，如大型能源央企、轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等；3、下游行业快速发展，建议关注 部分电子材料、新能源材料公司；4、宏观经济整体预期改善，行业龙头价值公司进入长期可配 置区间。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250323》20250324 《化工行业周报 20250316》20250317 《化工行业周报 20250309》20250309 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123070003 本周（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 22.80 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][7]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a slight revenue growth of 6.8%, reaching RMB 5.623 billion, while the net profit increased by 4.9% to RMB 202 million. The non-recurring net profit saw a significant rise of 39.84% [5][9]. - The company's intelligent computing and big data businesses are steadily developing, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7]. - The company is actively expanding its intelligent computing business, with significant projects like the second phase of the Songjiang Big Data Computing Center, which is part of Shanghai's major engineering list for 2024 [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 71.1 billion, RMB 83.9 billion, and RMB 96.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit is expected to be RMB 2.8 billion, RMB 3.3 billion, and RMB 3.9 billion for the same years [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.20, RMB 0.24, and RMB 0.28 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 113.3, 93.5, and 80.5 [7][9]. - The company reported a gross margin of 19.29% for 2024, a slight increase of 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a digital transformation expert in various sectors, focusing on comprehensive service capabilities and industry-specific solutions [10]. - The demand for smart computing and data solutions is increasing due to the rapid growth of digital infrastructure in smart city initiatives, benefiting the company's business expansion [10]. - The company has successfully completed multiple digital information system upgrades for government agencies, establishing a foundation for future projects [10].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [1][2][31] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with mass production expected by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment [1] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a supply-side reform, with price increases stabilizing as the market approaches a critical threshold for end-user acceptance [1] - The wind power sector is expected to see steady demand growth in 2025, driven by domestic and overseas project developments [1] - The electric power equipment sector is benefiting from ongoing reforms and high demand for ultra-high voltage and main grid construction [1] - The hydrogen energy sector is being propelled by policy support, with applications in green hydrogen and chemical industries expected to expand [1] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - National retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 622,000 units from March 1-23, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 40% [2][21] - Changan Automobile plans to launch a prototype equipped with solid-state batteries this year, with mass production expected in 2027 [21] Photovoltaics - Trina Solar's new bifacial component achieved a peak power of 808W, certified by TÜV [21] - The price of silicon materials remains stable, with mainstream manufacturers' prices around 40-42 RMB per kg [14][20] Wind Power - Domestic and overseas demand for wind power components is expected to remain strong, with ongoing project tenders and construction [1] Electric Power Equipment - Continuous promotion of power system reforms is expected to accelerate ultra-high voltage and main grid construction, maintaining high demand for related equipment [1] Hydrogen Energy - Policies are driving the industrialization of hydrogen energy, with a focus on cost-effective and technologically advanced electrolyzer manufacturers [1][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of HKD 16.24 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a slight decline in net profit. The gross margin has rebounded, and cash on hand has increased by double digits. The company maintains a strong strategic focus on core cities in first and second-tier areas, which lays a solid foundation for future high-quality development. Despite the ongoing industry sales slump, the company has demonstrated resilience in both sales and land acquisition, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 1429.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 48.0 billion, a decrease of 4.6%. The proposed cash dividend is HKD 1.2 per share, with a payout ratio of 47% [4][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 13.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin and attributable net profit margin were 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively, both showing slight declines [8][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to the current industry conditions. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1478 billion, RMB 1383 billion, and RMB 1351 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, -6%, and -2%, respectively. The net profit for the same years is projected to be RMB 50 billion, RMB 50 billion, and RMB 51 billion, with growth rates of 3%, 1%, and 2% [5][7]. Cash and Debt Management - As of the end of 2024, the company held cash of RMB 572.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The interest-bearing debt was RMB 845.0 billion, up 5.7%. The net debt ratio stood at 26.6%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 9.35X, indicating a strong liquidity position [8][18][21]. Sales and Market Position - The company ranked seventh in the industry for sales in 2024, with a sales amount of RMB 1335 billion, a decline of 29.4% year-on-year. The sales area was 611 million square meters, also down 29.3%. The sales price per square meter was RMB 20,500, a decrease of 1.1% [23][31][25]. - The sales return rate reached 102%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous year, indicating effective cash collection [8]. Land Acquisition - The company acquired land worth RMB 530 billion in 2024, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, ranking sixth in the industry for land acquisition. The land acquisition intensity was 40%, which, despite a decline, remains relatively high [38][44].

Profitability Overview - In January-February, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - The operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8% year-on-year, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points, while the profit margin was 4.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points[1][5] Production and Price Dynamics - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points, indicating sustained production activity[2][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, while the PPI for production materials fell by 2.6%, reflecting weak price performance[2][6] Sector Contributions - Manufacturing profits increased by 4.8% year-on-year, significantly improving by 8.7 percentage points, contributing positively to overall industrial profitability[2][10] - The contribution of high-tech manufacturing to profit growth fell to 0.2 percentage points, down by 0.2 percentage points, while traditional equipment manufacturing shifted from negative to positive, contributing 1.3 percentage points[10] Future Outlook - Industrial profitability is expected to receive support from both volume and price factors in the second quarter, with potential improvements in PPI anticipated due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand[2][18] - Insufficient profitability may hinder employment and income growth, necessitating fiscal policies to support enterprises through demand expansion and cost reduction[18] Risks - Potential risks include overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact industrial profitability[19]