Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in various industries, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been relatively weak [6][7] - The report indicates that the current economic environment is similar to the period from 2013 to 2015, suggesting that supply-side reforms could stabilize the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the second half of the year [7] Market Update - The report notes that as of July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.70% to 10435.51 [3] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a decline of 0.43%, closing at 3965.17 [3] Industry Performance - The report provides a summary of industry performance, with the comprehensive index showing an increase of 2.57%. In contrast, the coal industry experienced a decline of 2.04% [4] - Other sectors such as public utilities and pharmaceuticals also saw slight declines of 1.87% and 0.97%, respectively [4] Key Focus Areas - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" actions taken by companies in sectors like solar energy and automotive are expected to create short-term positive factors for domestic demand [7] - It is noted that the current market conditions, characterized by ample liquidity, may lead to a rotation of funds among various sectors, particularly benefiting cyclical stocks [7] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that since October 2022, the PPI has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged period of weak pricing [6] - The report draws parallels to the supply-side reforms that began in 2016, which helped to lift the PPI out of a weak pricing environment [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - Neuralink has publicly demonstrated its brain-computer interface (BCI) technology on humans, which is expected to address the motion control bottleneck in humanoid robots [1][11]. - The U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on certain electronic design automation (EDA) tools to China, which may ease the high-end chip development interruption risk for domestic companies [1][13]. - Apple's first foldable iPhone has entered the prototype testing phase, which could disrupt the high-end foldable market currently dominated by Samsung and Huawei [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Developments - Neuralink's BCI technology has shown the feasibility of direct thought-to-digital action, potentially transforming human-computer interaction methods [11][12]. - The lifting of EDA tool export restrictions is seen as a temporary easing in the U.S.-China high-tech competition, allowing Chinese companies to resume using essential design tools [13][14]. - Apple's entry into the foldable smartphone market is anticipated to rapidly capture high-end market share, compelling Android manufacturers to innovate and lower prices [15]. Company Dynamics - Hengsheng Electronics has repurchased 183,800 shares, accounting for 0.0097% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 5.03 million yuan [3][21]. - Chuangye Heima plans to acquire 100% equity of Bansintong, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary post-transaction [3][21].

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market is experiencing a mild cooling, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous month [2][3] - The unemployment rate in June stands at 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from May, but the labor force participation rate has dropped to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating potential overestimation of the unemployment rate [2][3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of "incremental" policies for equities and the impact of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect on the bond market [4][39] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54% this week, with the leading sectors being steel (5.27%), banking (3.78%), and building materials (3.63%) [39][40] - The ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, while the ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.04% [12][44] Economic Data Insights - Internet enterprises in China reported a revenue of 773.5 billion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 2.2% [25] - The construction material inventory increased by 50,000 tons in the week of July 4, indicating a potential rise in supply [26][30] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on optimizing capital market mechanisms to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation towards high-potential sectors [39][41] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is emphasizing the need for precise policies to stabilize the real estate market, encouraging local governments to take responsibility [42]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector index rose by 3.77% this week, with all 42 A-share banks experiencing gains. Year-to-date, the banking sector has increased by 17.77%, ranking second among all industries. The report emphasizes the investment value of bank stocks, particularly recommending China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1][14][15]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index increased by 3.78% this week, outperforming the Wind All A index by 2.56 percentage points. The average increase for state-owned banks was 2.81%, for joint-stock banks 5.41%, for city commercial banks 3.30%, and for rural commercial banks 2.48% [2][13][15]. - Over the past month, state-owned banks saw a rise of 6.95%, joint-stock banks 11.63%, city commercial banks 7.34%, and rural commercial banks 4.82% [2][15]. Funding Price Situation - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation with a net withdrawal of 13,753 billion yuan this week. The overnight SHIBOR rate was 1.31%, down 6 basis points from last week, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate was 1.42%, down 25 basis points [3][28][31]. Bond Market Situation - The total financing in the bond market was 10,356.4 billion yuan, with a net financing increase of 4,317.0 billion yuan, up 137.3 billion yuan from last week. The issuance of bonds decreased by 10,413.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4][43]. - The issuance of government bonds was 2,800.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1,690.8 billion yuan from last week [4][43]. Bond Yield Overview - The 1-year government bond yield was 1.34%, down 1 basis point from last week, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 1.64%. The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds widened by 1 basis point [5][47][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years (from fiscal year 2025 to 2034) compared to the House version, intensifying the US fiscal balance pressure. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit [3][11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [3][12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries [3][14]. - From June 30 to July 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week - on - week and decreased by 16.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.26% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline widened to 9.35%. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 5.23% year - on - year [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years compared to the House version. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit. After the bill passes, the US fiscal balance pressure increases, and there is uncertainty about future fiscal policies [11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries. The risk of the US unilaterally escalating tariffs in the short - term is relatively high [14]. - The report provides week - on - week and year - on - year data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, energy, and metals, including the average wholesale price of pork, vegetable prices, and crude oil prices [17][18]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The document shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators through multiple charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [22]. Key High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents US and European high - frequency indicators through charts, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, and the data sources are mainly Wind, Bloomberg, and BOC Securities [77][80][81]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [90]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts, and the data source is Wind [141][143].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in the industry, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been weak [1][2] - The report discusses the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee, emphasizing the need to address chaotic low-price competition and promote product quality [2] - The "anti-involution" movement is anticipated to boost prices from the supply side, thereby alleviating the current weak nominal economic growth situation [2] Market Update - The report notes that weak pricing has been a significant drag on the fundamentals, particularly the nominal economic growth rate [2] - Since October 2022, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, similar to the period from 2012 to 2016 when supply-side reforms helped PPI recover [2] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" actions taken by various industries, such as solar and automotive, could lead to short-term positive factors for related domestic demand sectors [2] Short-term Trading Opportunities - The report indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a short-term trading rally in cyclical stocks, given the low valuations and the recent actions taken by companies to limit production [2] - It is noted that the market has been performing well across several sectors, including technology and consumer goods, which may lead to a rotation into cyclical stocks [2] Observations on Style Switching - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the style switch, drawing parallels to the economic environment of 2013-2015 [2] - It suggests that while PPI may stabilize in the second half of the year, a strong upward trend is unlikely, and the recovery of fundamentals will require further observation [2] - The report emphasizes that the current cycle is nearing a mid-cycle point, with potential inventory destocking by year-end, and the effectiveness of policy implementation remains to be seen [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a gradual upward shift in its central tendency, supported by a classic structure of "weight on the platform, technology growth in the spotlight" [3][25] - The "anti-involution" trend in various industries is expected to improve nominal economic growth from the supply side, although the sustainability of style switching remains to be observed [12][27] - The IPO market has shown positive changes, with a significant increase in the number of new projects and financing amounts, benefiting the brokerage sector [42][43] Market Overview - The A-share market is currently supported by ample liquidity, and as the third quarter approaches, expectations for domestic demand are likely to recover with the acceleration of policy implementation [13][35] - The report notes that the banking sector's dividend yield has declined significantly, reaching a three-year low, which historically indicates potential volatility or adjustment risks in the banking market [32][35] Industry Analysis - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors have seen substantial inflows, with net capital inflow reaching 147.38 billion [37] - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" strategy has catalyzed a rebound in several sectors, including new energy, steel, and construction materials, although high inventory levels in some industries remain a concern [27][35] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure supports the notion of "weight on the platform, technology growth in the spotlight," which is crucial for the index's upward movement [25][35] IPO Market Dynamics - The IPO market has experienced a surge, with 53 new projects accepted in June alone, surpassing the total from January to May [42][43] - The financing amount for IPOs in June reached 9.153 billion, marking a 164.82% increase month-on-month, indicating a favorable environment for innovative companies [42][43] Sector Performance - The report notes that the electronic sector received a boost following positive news regarding U.S.-Vietnam tariff negotiations [23] - The report also mentions that the healthcare sector has been a top performer, with significant capital inflows, while sectors like computing and non-bank financials faced the largest outflows [37][38]