证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 展望未来消费政策发力路径，我们认为在结构转型的大背景下，把消费作为逆周期的 发力手段需要一个凝聚共识的阶段，所以我们预判消费发力是一个渐进的过程。但我 们也同样提示，若中美贸易摩擦超预期，逆周期调节力度可能明显增强，消费领域超 常规逆周期政策可能包括发放全国消费券，以及给中低收入群体直接发补贴。资金来 源可能结合特别国债、央行利润上缴及中央财政共同出资，极端情况下或依赖央行扩 表支持。 ❑ 重点通过"增收组合拳"促进消费，而非"现金派发" 《提振消费专项行动方案》（后文简称"方案"）将"城乡居民增收促进行动" 置于首位，通过工资性收入、财产性收入、农民增收、账款清欠四维发力。我们 认为该举措体现了国家将收入分配改革作为扩大内需的核心抓手，而非直接"现 金派发"，体现了对长期可持续发展与短期刺激的平衡考量。 具体而言：其一，覆盖居民收入主要构成，其中工资性收入和财产性收入在居民 人均可支配收入中占比 65%，是居民的收入的主要来源，增收政策把握了核心矛 盾。其二，强调供需两端综合发力，此前的消费政策大多从供给侧入手，强调以 供给引领创造需求。这次《方案》在需求侧加大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry has evolved from traditional appliances to smart appliances and now to AI-enabled appliances, driven by breakthroughs in domestic large models [2] - The integration of AI technology is expected to transform televisions into the central hub of smart home systems, enhancing user experience through voice control and remote monitoring [2] - Major brands are actively embracing AI applications, with Samsung leading the way through a comprehensive ecosystem built on chip, system, and software integration [3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. AI-Driven Transformation in the Television Industry - The evolution of home appliances has progressed through several stages, culminating in AI appliances that can proactively serve user needs [11][12] - The introduction of large models like DeepSeek is expected to enhance the capabilities of AI appliances, allowing for more personalized and efficient user interactions [14][17] 2. Leading Black Appliance Brands and Their AI Applications - Samsung has established a strong competitive edge by integrating AI capabilities into its televisions, utilizing advanced chips and software systems to enhance user experience [30][31] - Hisense has become the first brand to integrate the DeepSeek model, significantly improving its AI television's logical reasoning and multi-scenario applications [40] - TCL is also integrating DeepSeek technology across its product lines, enhancing smart home device interconnectivity and user experience [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies capable of integrating chips, systems, and application ecosystems will gain a competitive advantage in the upcoming AI wave [5] - Hisense and TCL are specifically recommended as potential beneficiaries of the AI-driven transformation in the television sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a trend of improving profitability due to the increasing revenue share from high-margin businesses such as CDMO and formulations, along with rising capacity utilization and production efficiency [1][10] - The financial performance shows short-term profit pressure but maintains high operational quality, with 2024 revenue reaching 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, a decline of 2.29% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.29% [1] - The cash flow from operating activities was 1.209 billion yuan, showing a strong operational quality with a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [1] Growth Potential - The raw material and intermediate business saw stable growth, with sales revenue of 8.651 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.32% year-on-year [2] - The CDMO business reported revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.05%, with a significant increase in project numbers, indicating strong growth potential [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.85%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in gross margin from the raw material and intermediate business [4] - The company is expected to enter a period of improving profitability as high-margin business revenues increase and production efficiency improves [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.00, 1.13, and 1.36 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2025 [11] - The company is anticipated to enter a new cycle of high-quality growth driven by supply upgrades as capacity is gradually released [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a trend of improving profitability due to the increasing revenue share from high-margin businesses such as CDMO and formulations, along with rising capacity utilization and production efficiency [1][10] - The financial performance shows short-term profit pressure but maintains high operational quality, with 2024 revenue at 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [1] - The cash flow from operating activities was 1.209 billion yuan, up 17.20% year-on-year, indicating strong operational quality [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.85%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of the raw material and intermediate business [4] Growth Potential Summary - The raw material and intermediate business saw stable growth, with sales revenue of 8.651 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.32% year-on-year [2] - The CDMO business maintained strong growth, with 1,601 quoted projects, a 77% increase year-on-year, and 996 ongoing projects, a 35% increase year-on-year [3] - The pharmaceutical business generated revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on a multi-variety development strategy and a pipeline of 64 projects [4] Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to enter a period of improving profitability as the revenue share from high-margin businesses increases [10] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.00, 1.13, and 1.36 yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [11]

DeepSeek 投研应用系列：量化代码实测 ❑ DeepSeek 可以实现用户自定义的行情更新、因子计算及选股代码 行情更新：DeepSeek 实现行情数据读取和本地化保存，并给出对应的数据库存 储建议，用户可以进一步通过 DeepSeek 实现本地数据库的维护和定时更新。 因子计算：DeepSeek 能根据研报及文献等公开资料实现计算指标及因子的代 码，也可以根据用户提示实现相应因子计算的代码。将单个标的的单因子计算实 现为函数形式，再结合定时任务，在每日行情更新后，进行增量因子的计算，实 现本地数据库的因子更新。 选股实测：我们以查询上证 50 指数成分股中上穿 10 日均线的股票和筛选近期股 吧评论热度最高的前 10 只股票为例，验证了 DeepSeek 可以实现对标准及另类数 据处理并实现条件筛选的代码逻辑，并按指定格式保存结果。 ❑ 简洁有效的提问可以快速引导 DeepSeek 给出实用代码样例： （1）良好的提问模板：行动 + 领域 + 输出格式;（2）给 DeepSeek 设定确切的 角色；（3）尽可能将任务细化分解，巧用多回合对话；（4）提供样例，让 DeepSeek 按照需要的代码风格进行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The government work report for 2025 first introduced the concept of "Deep Sea Technology," emphasizing its importance alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, indicating strong policy support for emerging industries [1] - Deep sea technology is seen as a strategic shift from a "maritime power" to a "maritime strong power," focusing on the comprehensive application of advanced technologies in deep sea exploration, resource development, and environmental research [1][2] - The deep sea technology sector is projected to contribute significantly to China's marine economy, with an expected market size exceeding 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 25% of the marine production value [2] Summary by Sections Deep Sea Equipment Manufacturing - Deep sea equipment is crucial for technology implementation, with a high dependency on imports, making domestic substitution a key focus area. There is expected growth in demand for manned submersibles, underwater robots, and deep sea sensors [3] Deep Sea Resource Development - The deep sea holds vast resources such as combustible ice and polymetallic nodules. Current pilot projects for resource extraction technologies are underway, with a focus on mineral extraction, oil and gas exploration, and biomedicine [3] Marine New Infrastructure - Undersea data centers benefit from natural cooling, reducing energy consumption by 40% compared to land-based facilities. Innovations in deep sea communication and floating wind power platforms are also highlighted as areas of growth [3] Investment Recommendations - For deep sea equipment, recommended companies include China Shipbuilding, China Power, and China Heavy Industry, with additional attention to firms like CIMC and Tianhai Defense [4] - In deep sea information technology, key recommendations include China Marine Defense and Oriental Cable, with a focus on companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric [4] - For deep sea resource development and technical services, companies such as CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering are recommended [4]

天振股份(301356) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 PVC 地板龙头破局，涅槃开启新周期 ——天振股份深度报告 投资要点 ❑ PVC 地板龙头破局，涅槃开启新周期 天振股份成立于 2003 年，从竹地板制造转向 PVC 地板外贸代工，凭借技术迭代 （LVT→WPC→SPC→MGO）与强研发能力（34 项专利，发明专利 21 项）， 2018 年推出 MGO 地板获国际龙头 Shaw 认可，2019 年越南子公司投产应对中美 贸易摩擦，迅速跻身行业三强（2021 年全球市占率 7.14%）。近年受美国供应链 溯源影响业绩承压（2023 年营收仅 3 亿元），但海外产能布局深化（越南/美国 工厂）与 RPET 新品投放推动 2024 年订单加速修复，涅槃开启新一轮成长周 期。 ❑ 需求与供给：替代趋势明确，东南亚产能崛起 需求端：PVC 地板因环保、安装高效及性价比优势，加速替代传统地面材料。 美国为核心需求市场，2021 年进口占全球 67%，从美国市场看， LVT/WPC/SPC 为代表的片材 PVC 地板由于安装简便、成本低，近年来渗透率快速提升，从 2016 年 6.0%至 2022 年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The offline cycle is approaching, supported by macroeconomic factors, pricing stability, and consumer policies, driving innovation and enhancing profitability [3][4] - Local life service consumption demand is strong, with intensified competition in same-city retail [3][4] - The leisure economy continues to thrive, with traffic consolidating on platforms, and the OTA landscape remains stable with ongoing growth and profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Travel Chain: Resilient Leisure Demand - Q1 travel volume increased while prices decreased, with 9.02 billion cross-regional trips during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2][9] - The hotel sector is expected to see a narrowing supply-demand gap, with a focus on leading hotel brands [2][11] - OTA platforms are experiencing high growth and strong barriers, with increased overseas investments [2][19] 2. Retail: Offline Cycle Reversal - CPI is marginally improving, which is expected to benefit same-store sales [4][24] - Retail adjustments are entering a verification phase, with significant renovations in major chains like Yonghui [4][29] 3. Local Life: Strong Service Consumption Demand - Service consumption expenditure is projected to increase, with a notable rise in the share of service consumption [3][33] - Competition in the takeaway market is intensifying, with platforms enhancing rider protections [3][35] 4. Comprehensive E-commerce: Emerging from Q1 Slump - E-commerce platforms are recovering from the Q1 slump, with macro pressures easing [4][45] - The focus is on optimizing the business environment and enhancing user experience, particularly through AI applications [4][48] 5. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks include Yonghui Supermarket, Meituan-W, Alibaba-W, and Huazhu Group among others [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 风电设备 大金重工(002487) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 风电出海选塔桩，塔桩龙头看大金 ——大金重工深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 全球塔桩龙头企业，深耕海外订单亮眼 风电装机不及预期；行业政策不及预期；原材料价格波动；市场竞争加剧。 投资评级: 增持(首次) 分析师：邱世梁 执业证书号：S1230520050001 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 大金重工是风电塔桩出海龙头，高壁垒、高盈利率先享受出海红利。大金重工于 2000 年成立，坚持深耕风电装备制造领域，主要产品为塔筒、管桩、导管架、 浮式基础、过渡段等。实施"新两海"战略以来，成效显著，2023 年在欧洲市 场取得订单份额位居前列，是目前亚太区唯一实现向欧洲批量交付海上风电基础 结构的供应商。2021-2024H1，公司海外收入占比持续提升，从 2021 年的 16.4% 提升至 55.9%，受益于海外海上单桩产品占比持续提升，盈利能力显著提升。 ❑ 塔桩供需边际改善，量增价稳周期向上 1）量：欧洲方面，欧洲海风并网节点明确，塔桩需求逐步释放。欧洲能源安全 诉求加速海风迈入增长新周 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The foundation for the A-share bull market in 2025 may be a strong RMB environment, driven by domestic economic recovery exceeding expectations[3] - In Q2, the weak US economy and strong rate cuts are expected to continue, accelerating global capital inflow to China, maintaining an optimistic mid-term outlook[2] - The A-share market has shown resilience compared to global risk assets, with the RMB stabilizing around January 13, 2025, coinciding with A-share stabilization[3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT sector, particularly small-cap stocks, has been the focal point of the current market, but the strong RMB environment is anticipated to be the main catalyst for future growth[3] - As of March 7, 2025, retail trading activity has declined, indicating a shift from speculative to institutional investment, with public funds in the TMT sector reaching a historical peak of 29.08%[4] - Consumer sectors, especially food and beverage, have seen a decrease in allocation to 3.88%, suggesting a structural shift in market dynamics[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The GDPNOW model predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.1% for Q1 2025, indicating stable short-term macroeconomic conditions[8] - Prices in cyclical sectors such as food and beverage, steel, and chemicals have stabilized, with the cement price index increasing by 7.1% since February 21, 2025[5] - The second-hand housing market remains active, with transaction volumes in major cities rebounding to levels seen after policy interventions[5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Margin trading has shown a net inflow trend, with electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors seeing significant inflows of CNY 34.8 billion and CNY 33.8 billion respectively[13] - The market is currently favoring value over growth, with a preference for high EP value and dividend yield assets[14]