Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.6%, the STAR 50 gained 1.6%, the CSI 1000 was up 1.8%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4% [5] - The best-performing sectors included computers (+3.6%), pharmaceuticals (+2.4%), electronics (+2.1%), defense and military (+1.9%), and communications (+1.8%). The worst-performing sectors were beauty and personal care (-0.6%), banking (-0.2%), food and beverage (-0.2%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.2%), and home appliances (0.0%) [5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,185.4 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.38 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5] Key Insights A-Share Strategy - The report indicates a favorable outlook for large-cap stocks, with a balanced approach towards growth and value, particularly focusing on sectors such as coal, pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs), military, banking, and non-banking financials [6] - The calendar effect suggests that mid-cap growth stocks, particularly the STAR 50, will outperform in June, while small-cap growth indices like CSI 1000 and National Index 2000 may underperform [6] - The report highlights that small-cap stocks currently exhibit characteristics of "high congestion, high valuation, and low profitability," making sustained performance challenging [6] Bond Market Analysis - The analysis of historical low-volatility periods in the stock and bond markets indicates that the underlying reasons are linked to low economic growth and restrained policy measures [8] - The current market shows a trend of both stock and bond markets experiencing volatility reduction, with investors adopting a cautious stance and trading volumes declining [8] Banking Sector Strategy - The report emphasizes a long-term trend of low interest rates leading to an asset shortage, which is beneficial for banks [10] - There is a positive outlook for bank stock valuations to recover, with quality banks expected to achieve price-to-book ratios above 1 [10] - The stability of bank earnings is highlighted as a key factor, with low valuations and low volatility supporting the recovery of bank stock values [10] Computer Industry Insights - Major events include updates from companies like Microsoft and Google regarding AI advancements [11] - The commercialization of AI cloud services is accelerating, with the Agent ecosystem expected to create significant opportunities [11] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies involved in Agent applications and AI vertical applications, including Keda Xunfei, Focus Technology, and Kingsoft Office [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural opportunity in external demand while emphasizing the new consumption trends in domestic demand [1] - The performance of various sectors is expected to diverge, with companies that embrace transformation entering a new growth phase [5] - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a significant shift, with Douyin surpassing Tmall as the leading online platform for cosmetics sales [16] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is facing pressure on profit margins due to rising traffic costs on platforms like Douyin, leading to a general decline in profitability in the second half of 2024 [21] - Key companies such as 毛戈平, 巨子生物, and 上美股份 have shown strong revenue growth, with 毛戈平 achieving a 35% increase in revenue for 2024 [19] - The overall revenue for the cosmetics sector in 2024 was 605.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, while net profit decreased by 9% [20] 2. Medical Beauty - The medical beauty sector reported a revenue of 126.1 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12%, and a net profit of 31.3 billion RMB, up 20% [18] - Companies like 锦波生物 have shown exceptional performance, with net profit growth of 144% in 2024 [18] - The outlook for 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of slight revenue declines in the first quarter [18] 3. Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is benefiting from the demand for cost-effective products, maintaining steady revenue growth despite profit divergence [6] - The report suggests closely monitoring changes in U.S. tariff policies and the performance of platforms like Amazon and Shein [6] 4. Other Sectors - The mother and baby retail sector is experiencing positive growth due to an increase in birth rates and an expansion of product categories [6] - The report recommends focusing on companies that are adapting their business models in response to changing policies and market conditions [6] 5. Investment Strategy - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong operational capabilities and those that are showing signs of recovery in their performance metrics [26] - Specific companies to watch include 锦波生物, 毛戈平, and 巨子生物 in the cosmetics sector, and companies like 锦波生物 and 拉芳家化 in the medical beauty sector [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock and bond markets' persistent low - volatility conditions highlight the value of gold as a "buy - on - dip" opportunity. Short - term trading should focus on odds, with high - selling and low - buying for band trading, while long - term allocation should emphasize probability, expecting gold prices to rise after short - term shocks and adjustments [1]. Summary by Directory 1 Low Volatility Environment Highlights the "Buy - on - Dip" Value of Gold - Since May 12, 2025, after the China - US joint statement, the main trading line of the financial market around trade frictions has ended. The domestic stock and bond markets show low trading sentiment and reduced volatility. The A - share market's trading volume has declined, and the daily amplitude of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been within 2BP for many days [2][11]. - The lack of a macro trading mainline may be the main reason for the reduced volatility. In 2025, it is a typical macro trading year, but currently, the market may be in a transition period between old and new trading mainlines. Gold's value may be further highlighted due to its relatively higher volatility compared to stocks and bonds [2][12]. 2 Short - Term Trading Focuses on Odds, Long - Term Allocation Focuses on Probability Short - Term Trading - Tariff frictions drove the rise in gold prices, but the market has priced them relatively fully. In the short - term, with the easing of China - US trade frictions, the risk is controllable, and it's difficult for gold prices to break through upwards. Gold prices show a rise - oscillation pattern, and this round of adjustment may last until July, similar to previous adjustments [3][15][19]. - Trump's 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs ends on July 9. If tariff negotiations fail, the resurgence of trade risks may drive gold prices up. In the short - term, odds thinking should be adopted, buying at lows below $3150 per ounce and selling at highs above $3350 per ounce [3][19][20]. Long - Term Allocation - The global multi - polar pattern may be reconstructed, and geopolitical frictions are increasing. Trump's government pursues "America First" and isolationism, and European populism is rising, increasing geopolitical risks [22][23]. - The credit of the US dollar is collapsing. After the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US dollar's credit had cracks, and Trump's trade frictions accelerated its decline. The US dollar index has fallen, reflecting international capital's distrust of US dollar assets [23]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases support the bullish view on gold. Since the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks have increased gold purchases, and China's central bank restarted gold purchases in 2025 [28]. - Investors' long - term bullish sentiment on gold is strong. Since late April, gold prices have been oscillating, but the market remains bullish. The long - term probability of gold price increases is high, and a "buy - on - dip" strategy can be adopted [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that bank profitability is stabilizing and aligning more closely with the real economy, while exhibiting lower volatility compared to other sectors [3][4][28] - The trend of asset scarcity continues, with a shift in funding evaluation criteria from short-term profits to long-term stable earnings [5][30] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in bank stock valuations, with high-quality banks expected to see their price-to-book (PB) ratios exceed 1 [6] Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - Regulatory policies are shifting towards a more sustainable support for the real economy, with a focus on the health of the banking system [3][14] - The real return on equity (ROE) for the 16 major listed banks is projected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 26.4% in 2010, indicating a significant decline over the past 15 years [17][22] - The core business profitability of banks is expected to stabilize, with new return on assets (ROA) for corporate and retail banking showing signs of recovery [21][27] Volatility Assessment - The banking sector's profit growth has been more stable than that of growth stocks, with a 10-year average net profit growth rate of 4.5% and a low coefficient of variation of 78.6% [4][28][29] Market Dynamics - The ongoing asset scarcity is characterized by low-risk interest rates and narrow spreads between various safe assets and government bonds [5][31] - The risk appetite among investors is shifting towards stability, with bank stocks being underrepresented in portfolios, estimated at a shortfall of 230.9 billion [6][30] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the low interest rate environment and asset scarcity will favor bank stocks, which are expected to benefit from increased insurance company investments in equities [39] - High dividend yields from bank stocks are attractive, with the four major banks offering a dividend yield of 4.29%, which is above historical averages [31][32] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the banking sector is likely to see a shift towards equity investments as dividends alone may not meet the needs of absolute return-focused funds [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the AI cloud industry [7]. Core Insights - Major cloud providers are experiencing significant revenue growth driven by AI integration, with Q1 2025 revenues for Amazon AWS, Google GCP, and Microsoft Azure reaching $68.278 billion, a year-over-year increase of 20.4% [1][14]. - The global public cloud market is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 24.10% from 2017 to 2023, with a forecasted CAGR of 19.13% from 2023 to 2029 [2][35]. - Microsoft is accelerating its AI cloud revenue contribution, with AI accounting for 16% of Azure's revenue in Q3 FY25, reflecting a significant increase in AI-related product adoption [3][77]. - Google's Gemini model has become a leading player in the industry, with Q1 2025 cloud revenue reaching $12.26 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.1% [4][64]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Driving Cloud Providers' Performance - Major cloud providers are maintaining rapid growth, with Q1 2025 revenues for Amazon AWS, Google GCP, and Microsoft Azure at $29.267 billion, $12.260 billion, and $26.751 billion respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 16.9%, 28.4%, and 20.8% [14]. - The profitability of cloud services is improving, with operating profit margins for Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at 39.45%, 17.76%, and 41.48% respectively [17][18]. Section 2: Microsoft - Accelerating AI Cloud Growth - Microsoft reported a 33% revenue growth for Azure & Other Cloud in FY25Q3, with AI contributions increasing significantly [3][77]. - The company has launched multiple AI agents, enhancing productivity and user engagement across its platforms [3][71]. Section 3: Google - Building the Gemini Model and Agent Ecosystem - Google is actively developing its AgentSpace and A2A protocol, aiming to enhance automation and efficiency in enterprise applications [4][5]. - The Gemini model has shown significant advancements in programming capabilities, outperforming competitors in various benchmarks [5][71]. Section 4: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with a combined Q1 2025 Capex of $77 billion, a year-over-year increase of 67.53% [26][30]. - Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are leading in Capex growth, reflecting their commitment to AI infrastructure [30][33]. Section 5: Market Outlook - The global public cloud market is expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2029, driven by increasing enterprise adoption of cloud services [35][46]. - The SaaS segment is projected to maintain a significant market share, with expected annual spending per employee reaching $220.3 by 2029 [46][47].

Market Overview - On May 28, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.02%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.08%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.23%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.31%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.51% [3][4] - The best-performing industries on May 28 were textiles and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), coal (+0.74%), transportation (+0.71%), and communications (+0.62%). The worst-performing industries were basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.78%), national defense and military industry (-0.72%), automotive (-0.72%), and real estate (-0.68%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on May 28 was 10,338.73 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.578 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Recommendations - The report highlights the deep dive into Robotech (300757), which has successfully acquired ficonTEC, a global leader in coupling packaging equipment, positioning itself in the silicon photonics and CPO (Chip-on-Package) market, projected to be worth hundreds of billions [2][5] - The recommendation logic indicates that the accelerating penetration rates of silicon photonics modules and CPO technology will drive the demand for precision coupling packaging equipment, benefiting the company from industry upgrades [5] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 1,218 million yuan in 2025 to 1,724 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 10.1%, 26.8%, and 11.7% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 136 million yuan in 2025 to 317 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 112.9%, 87.7%, and 24.2% respectively [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 28 日 *ST 松发重组成功，向"中国最具成长力造船厂"迈进 ——船舶行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ *ST 松发重组成功，恒力重工成为国内民船上市第一股 1、2025 年 5 月 26 日盘后，松发股份发布《重大资产置换及发行股份购买资产并 募集配套资金暨关联交易实施情况暨新增股份上市公告书》等公告。本次交易标 的资产的交割事项已实施完毕，具体如下： 1）中坤投资、苏州恒能、恒能投资、陈建华所持有的置入资产恒力重工 100%股权 过户至松发股份名下的工商变更登记手续已办理完毕。 2）松发股份所持松发品牌家居 100%股权过户至中坤投资的工商变更登记手续已 办理完毕。 3）2025 年 5 月 22 日，松发股份与中坤投资、苏州恒能、恒能投资、陈建华等相 关方签署了《资产交割确认书》，约定本次置出资产及置入资产的交割日为 2025 年 5 月 22 日，自置出资产及置入资产的交割日起，即完成交付义务。 2、后续上市公司拟向不超过 35 名特定投资者发行股份募集不超过 40 亿的配套 资金，募集配套资金在扣除发行费用后，拟用于标 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 28 日 *ST 松发重组成功，向"中国最具成长力造船厂"迈进 ——船舶行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ *ST 松发重组成功，恒力重工成为国内民船上市第一股 1、2025 年 5 月 26 日盘后，松发股份发布《重大资产置换及发行股份购买资产并 募集配套资金暨关联交易实施情况暨新增股份上市公告书》等公告。本次交易标 的资产的交割事项已实施完毕，具体如下： 1）中坤投资、苏州恒能、恒能投资、陈建华所持有的置入资产恒力重工 100%股权 过户至松发股份名下的工商变更登记手续已办理完毕。 2）松发股份所持松发品牌家居 100%股权过户至中坤投资的工商变更登记手续已 办理完毕。 3）2025 年 5 月 22 日，松发股份与中坤投资、苏州恒能、恒能投资、陈建华等相 关方签署了《资产交割确认书》，约定本次置出资产及置入资产的交割日为 2025 年 5 月 22 日，自置出资产及置入资产的交割日起，即完成交付义务。 2、后续上市公司拟向不超过 35 名特定投资者发行股份募集不超过 40 亿的配套 资金，募集配套资金在扣除发行费用后，拟用于标 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 28 日 如何理解股债的低波动？ ——债市策略思考 核心观点 我们通过复盘历史上股债低波动状态的典型时期，发现其深层原因是经济增速进入低 波动、政策托而不举。展望未来，我们认为下一阶段破局点可能是：①中美关税谈判 的后续进展；②二季度经济基本面的成色。 分析师：覃汉 执业证书号：S1230523080005 qinhan@stocke.com.cn 分析师：陈婷婷 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《震荡行情下的应对策略》 2025.05.25 2 《央行延续呵护，资金面迎来 跨月》 2025.05.25 3 《债市脉冲式行情下的应对策 略》 2025.05.24 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 回顾过去 5 个股市和债市处于低波动的时期，我们发现几个结论: 1. 股债同时处于低波动时期持续时间一般为 1-2 个季度。历史上股市和债市分别处 于震荡、低波动的时期不少， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a slight decline in net profit of approximately 0.2% in 2024, but saw a growth of about 6% in Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.53%, while the net profit was 120 million yuan [1][5] - The company is expanding into the screw rod sector through the acquisition of 51% of Tongzhan Precision Technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and extend its industrial chain [3] - The growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market is anticipated to drive rapid performance growth for the company, with projections indicating a market size of approximately 104.2 billion yuan for wheel hub units and reducer bearings by 2026 [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of approximately 31.61% and a net margin of 16.24%, both showing a decline compared to the previous year. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 30.82%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.052 billion, 1.483 billion, and 1.740 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 41%, and 17% respectively. The net profit is expected to be 128 million, 147 million, and 154 million yuan for the same period [5][12]