Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the economic bottom line may have improved compared to the period of increased trade friction, with government investment accelerating and consumer promotion measures continuing to exert influence on demand expansion [1][5][39] - It emphasizes a balanced allocation between growth and value, with a focus on large-cap stocks due to their stronger earnings certainty in the current market environment [1][5][43] Market Style Rotation - The report indicates that large-cap stocks are outperforming small-cap stocks, with a balanced valuation style observed across growth and value indices [2][12] - It highlights that consumer, growth, and large-cap styles are expected to dominate, suggesting a preference for these sectors in the current market [2][13] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on four key sectors: coal, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and finance [3][5] - In the coal sector, prices are expected to stabilize due to supply contraction and the upcoming peak demand season [3][5] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its potential valuation re-rating, supported by record-breaking investment and favorable policy trends [3][5] - The military industry is noted for its growth potential driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for self-sufficiency [3][5] - In finance, the report points out that both banks and non-bank financial institutions are currently underweighted, with the securities sector showing higher value compared to insurance [3][5] Calendar Effect - Historical data from June 2010 to 2024 indicates that large-cap growth styles tend to outperform during this month, with specific sectors like electronics, home appliances, and food and beverage showing strong performance [4][12] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on large-cap stocks, suggesting a balanced approach between growth and value, with an emphasis on coal, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and financial sectors [5][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a slight decline of approximately 0.2% in net profit attributable to the parent in 2024, but saw a growth of about 6% in Q1 2025 [1] - The company is expanding into the screw rod sector through the acquisition of a 51% stake in Tongzhan Precision Technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and extend its industrial chain [3] - The domestic market for hub units and reducer bearings is projected to reach approximately 104.2 billion yuan by 2026, with the company expected to benefit significantly from the growth in the new energy vehicle market [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.05 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 41%, and 17% respectively [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.53%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, which was a slight decline of 0.18% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 31.61%, down by 0.41 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.24%, down by 2.23 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.55%, and a net profit of 34.94 million yuan, a growth of 6.22% [1][2] Market Outlook - The company is expected to capture over 20% market share in the domestic new energy vehicle hub unit and reducer bearing front-end market after the third factory reaches full capacity [4] - The company has established partnerships with several major automotive manufacturers, which is expected to translate into significant orders [4]

Market Overview - On May 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.54%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.95%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.34%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.43% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 27 were textiles and apparel (+1.3%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+0.97%), beauty and personal care (+0.88%), environmental protection (+0.76%), and real estate (+0.63%). The worst-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (-2.07%), electronics (-1.28%), automotive (-1.05%), machinery and equipment (-0.88%), and telecommunications (-0.82%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on May 27 was 1,024.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 11.975 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Wuzhou Xinchun (603667), identified as a leading domestic bearing manufacturer, strategically positioned in high-growth sectors such as humanoid robots and EMB systems [5] - A significant event noted was the visit of the General Secretary to Wuzhou Xinchun's affiliated company, Luozhou Company, on May 19, 2025 [5] - The company is accelerating its layout in humanoid robot components, while also deepening its focus on high-value-added markets in its core bearing business. The EMB system's ball screw is expected to see increased production [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted, with the company's performance expected to grow rapidly alongside the mass production of humanoid robots and EMB systems [5] - Catalysts for growth include the accelerated mass production of humanoid robots and exceeding market share expectations [5]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 21,170.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[3] - The profit growth rate accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first three months of 2025[3] - In April 2025, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March 2025[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies have significantly contributed to the recovery of industrial profits, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors[4] - Specialized equipment and general equipment industries saw profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 9.0%, surpassing the average industrial growth rate by 7.6 percentage points[6] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating persistent low prices that hinder profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% in the first four months of 2025, showing a slight recovery but still with significant room for improvement[5] - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[8] Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The U.S. tariff war is expected to have a controllable impact on overall industrial profits, with an estimated profit loss of CNY 200 billion, accounting for 2.7% of total industrial profits in 2024[8] - Industries with high export exposure to the U.S., such as textiles and footwear, are facing significant pressure, with some experiencing negative growth[8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 27 日 工业利润: 新动能引领突出，应对关税战扰动 ——2025 年 1-4 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策持续发力，新动能行业拉动 工业利润增速作用增强，装备制造业、高技术制造业对利润增长贡献较为显著，积极 应对关税战扰动（部分轻工业承压负增长）。但工业品价格中枢仍处低位，以价换量特 征仍较为显著，工业企业利润增速在价格方面仍有较大改善空间。我们认为，工业企 业利润增速修复的持续性需要有效需求持续助力，同时推动工业品价格合理回升。美 国关税战对工业利润或有所冲击，但在总量层面或较为可控，结构上部分轻工业压力 较大，未来或主要依靠新动能行业持续发力应对。 ❑ "两新"政策持续助力盈利修复，价格偏低是主要拖累 2025 年 1-4 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%， 利润增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。其中 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润 同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company, a subsidiary of the State Grid, is driven by a dual business model of "finance + manufacturing," positioning it to benefit from accelerated investments in the power grid [1][4]. - The carbon asset management business is expected to see sustained high growth due to the establishment of a carbon market framework and increasing trading volumes [2][36]. - The electrical manufacturing segment is poised to benefit from rising investments in distribution networks, with the company being a leader in amorphous transformers [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of the State Grid Corporation and has diversified into financial services through significant asset restructuring completed in 2020, which included trust, securities, and futures businesses [1][14]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.574 billion yuan, up 15.39% [1][24]. Carbon Asset Management - The carbon asset management business has shown promising growth, with revenue reaching 0.70 billion yuan in 2024, a 13.39% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 0.10 billion yuan, up 14.51% [2][40]. - The company is the only specialized carbon asset management firm within the State Grid system, focusing on carbon trading and management services [2][40]. Electrical Manufacturing - The company’s subsidiary, ZhiXin Electric, is a leader in amorphous alloy transformers, which are expected to benefit from increasing demand due to their energy efficiency advantages [3][46]. - From 2020 to 2024, ZhiXin Electric's revenue grew from 5.001 billion yuan to 7.375 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, and net profit increased from 0.16 billion yuan to 1.49 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 75% [3][24]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.487 billion yuan, 13.908 billion yuan, and 15.578 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 12% respectively [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to be 1.731 billion yuan, 1.850 billion yuan, and 1.961 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10%, 7%, and 6% respectively [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company, a subsidiary of the State Grid, is driven by a dual business model of "finance + manufacturing," which positions it to benefit from accelerated investments in the power grid [1][4]. - The carbon asset management business is expected to continue its high growth due to the establishment of a carbon market framework and increasing trading volumes [2][38]. - The electrical manufacturing segment is poised to benefit from rising investments in distribution networks, particularly in amorphous transformers, which are more energy-efficient compared to traditional silicon steel transformers [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of the State Grid Corporation and has diversified into financial services through significant asset restructuring completed in 2020, which included trust, securities, and futures businesses [1][14]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.574 billion yuan, up 15.39% [1][24]. Carbon Asset Management - The carbon asset management business has shown promising growth, with revenue reaching 0.70 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.39%, and net profit of 0.10 billion yuan, up 14.51% [2][40]. - The company is the only specialized carbon asset management firm within the State Grid system, focusing on carbon trading and management services [2][40]. Electrical Manufacturing - The company’s subsidiary, ZhiXin Electric, is a leader in the production of amorphous alloy transformers, which are expected to gain market share as distribution network investments increase [3][46]. - From 2020 to 2024, ZhiXin Electric's revenue grew from 5.001 billion yuan to 7.375 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, and net profit increased from 0.16 billion yuan to 1.49 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 75% [3][24]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.487 billion yuan, 13.908 billion yuan, and 15.578 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 12% [4][8]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.731 billion yuan, 1.850 billion yuan, and 1.961 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 7%, and 6% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]

Market Overview - On May 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.05%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.57%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.17%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.65%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.8%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 1.35% [4][3] - The best-performing sectors on May 26 were Media (+2.14%), Computer (+1.39%), Environmental Protection (+1.22%), Communication (+1.1%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.04%). The worst-performing sectors were Automotive (-1.78%), Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.08%), Comprehensive (-0.86%), Banking (-0.75%), and Home Appliances (-0.71%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 26 was 1,033.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.507 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Key Insights - From the production side, high-frequency indicators for the service and industrial sectors remained generally stable compared to the previous week. On the demand side, there was a divergence in variables, with consumption strengthening, fixed asset investment showing mixed strength, and exports showing signs of recovery [5] - Price-wise, marginal pressure on prices was observed this week, with a systemic rebound dependent on a demand-side recovery. Following the China-US trade talks, the fundamental pressure has eased [5]