炬芯科技（688049.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 28 日收盘价） 把握端侧 AI 化机遇，存内计算架构赋能业绩增长 glmszqdatemark 事件：1 月 25 日，炬芯科技发布 2025 年年度业绩预告，2025 年全年营业收入 预计为 9.22 亿元，同比增加 41.44%；预计实现归母净利润 2.04 亿元，同比增 长 91.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.92 亿元，同比增长 144.42%。 其中，4Q25 单季度公司预计营收 2.00 亿元，同比增长 8.11%，环比减少 26.74%； 预计归母净利润 0.52 亿元，同比增长 44.44%，环比减少 13.72%。 多元布局与产品结构优化驱动业绩高增。2025 年期间，公司以端侧产品 AI 化转 型为核心战略，通过加大研发资源投入、加快新品迭代速度，经营业绩呈现高速 增长态势，公司预计全年营业收入同比增长 41.44%，净利润同比增长 91.40%， 实现盈利规模与盈利质量的双向进阶。 顺应端侧产品 AI 化行业浪潮，公司持续拓展产品矩阵版图。分产品线来看 ...

投资逻辑 公司基本盘复苏，国产替代打开主业增长空间。谐波减速器是技术 密集型行业，材料、加工工艺、加工设备等方面均存在较高技术壁 垒，以公司为首的国产谐波减速器厂商经过多年发展，打破了国际 品牌在国内机器人谐波减速器领域的垄断、并持续深化国产替代。 公司技术+成本优势领先，中商情报局披露，2024 年公司市占率 达到全球 12%，位居全球第二，国产第一。受公共安全事件结束和新 能源汽车、3C 电子等下游需求拉动影响，2024-2025 年行业持续回 暖，国家统计局披露，2024/2025 年中国工业机器人产量分别同比提 升 14.2%/28.0%，2025 年产量达到 77 万台，创历史新高。 人形机器人风口将至，公司是人形领域谐波减速器的龙头。人形机 器人市场随着 AI 技术的进步和以特斯拉为首的科技巨头加码，有望 迎来快速爆发，人形机器人自由度有持续增长趋势，将带动谐波减 速器行业数倍增长的需求。以特斯拉 Optimus 为例，单台人形机器 人谐波减速器需求量为 14 台，后续有望提升到 20 个以上。国产厂商 具备较强的创新及降本能力，相对优势显著，有望充分受益人形机 器人市场爆发带来的产业机遇。公司在 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 城商行Ⅱ 青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 业绩全面超预期 ——青岛银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 投资要点 ❑ 青岛银行 25A 利润高增，ROE 逆势提升，同时贷款投放提速，不良额率双降。 ❑ 业绩概览 青岛银行快报显示，25A 营业收入、归母净利润同比分别增长 8.0%、21.7%，增 速较 25Q1-3 提升 2.9pc、6.1pc。25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；拨备 覆盖率为292%，环比提升22pc。25A青岛银行ROE为12.68%，同比提升1.2pc。 25Q4 末青岛银行贷款、存款分别同比增长 16.5%、16.4%，增速环比分别提升 3.2pc、3.9pc。存贷增速均提升，判断主要得益于青岛银行采取早投放早收益策 略，在 25Q4 加大了贷款投放以及存款揽存，提前开启开门红投放。 ❑ 不良额率双降 25Q4 末不良率为 0.97%，环比下降 13bp；不良额为 38.41 亿元，环比下降 7%； 25Q4 末拨备覆盖率为 292%，环比提升 22pc，拨备进一步增厚。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 青岛银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is focusing on the transformation of traditional cultural IP through immersive consumption scenarios and diversified business models to drive revenue growth, despite facing operating losses in 2025 due to rigid labor and operational costs [4] - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading tech firms to enhance its AI and 3D strategy, aiming to integrate culture, technology, and consumption [5] - The company is expected to enter a new phase in 2026, leveraging technological advancements to create digital experience spaces and interactive IP-themed experiences, thus upgrading the industry from traditional displays to immersive and intelligent experiences [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.525 billion, 1.814 billion, and 2.160 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of -0.26 billion, 1.63 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be -0.04, 0.27, and 0.36 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [7][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -208.8 for 2025, 33.4 for 2026, and 25.6 for 2027, reflecting the company's position as a leader in the digital entrepreneurship sector [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 67.05 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.32 CNY [3][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with net profit projected between 785 million CNY and 950 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 70% [8][9]. - The commercialization of AI large models is progressing steadily, with a project bid amount of 2.316 billion CNY for 2025 [9][10]. - The developer community for the company's open platform has surpassed 10 million, including 564,000 overseas developers, indicating strong ecosystem growth [9][10]. - The company has improved its cash collection, with total sales receipts expected to exceed 27 billion CNY in 2025, an increase of over 4 billion CNY from 2024 [9][10]. - R&D investment is projected to grow by over 20% in 2025, supporting the performance of the company's AI large models across various industries [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 19.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 40.205 billion CNY by 2027, with annual growth rates of 4.4%, 18.8%, 18.7%, 20.4%, and 20.5% respectively [2][12]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 657 million CNY in 2023 to 1.426 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 17.1%, -14.8%, 55.5%, 48.3%, and 10.4% [2][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2023 to 0.62 CNY in 2027 [2][12]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic AI technology application sector, with a strong market presence and a broad customer base across various industries, including education, healthcare, and finance [12][13]. - Compared to peers, the company has made significant investments in AI large models and has achieved faster product iteration, creating a competitive edge [12][13]. - The integration of B2B and B2C business models enhances the company's revenue potential and market positioning [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 55.37 RMB and a fair value of 69.74 RMB [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted growth of 27.6% to 37.9%, reaching 370 to 400 million RMB. The non-recurring net profit is projected to grow by 24.9% to 36.0%, amounting to 340 to 370 million RMB [7][8]. - The company has established a new division focused on computing power support, which is anticipated to be a key growth area. The global demand for new generation computing center products is high, and the company aims to leverage its overseas production capabilities to meet this demand [8][9]. - The company has made progress in its European standard pre-installation business, having already launched its products in the European market, which is expected to create a significant annual revenue opportunity of 1 to 1.5 billion USD [8][9]. - In the autonomous driving sector, the company is promoting its Robobus solution for various applications, including public transport and logistics, indicating a strategic expansion into new market opportunities [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 2.68 billion RMB, 3.51 billion RMB, and 4.36 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of -3.5%, 31.0%, and 24.1% [4][10]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 390 million RMB, 500 million RMB, and 620 million RMB, with growth rates of 33.5%, 30.2%, and 22.8% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.14 RMB, 2.79 RMB, and 3.43 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 21.04 RMB for the company, based on a 13x PE for 2027 [5]. Core Insights - The company has effectively integrated its forestry, pulp, and paper operations, demonstrating strong profitability across industry cycles. Its core advantages stem from cost advantages through integrated operations, differentiated products, and precise market control, maintaining a leading profitability level in the industry [3][15]. - The pulp supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, providing a moderate recovery in paper prices. Domestic pulp production is nearing its peak, and limited new overseas capacity is anticipated, which will support pulp prices and consequently paper prices [3][30]. - The company is set to achieve significant capacity growth from 2025 to 2027, with 1.7 million tons of packaging paper and 470,000 tons of cultural paper expected to come online, ensuring a high degree of certainty in future earnings growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Profitability - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.20% in revenue and 12.71% in net profit from 2015 to 2024, showcasing stable growth [15]. - The company operates three major production bases, ensuring a balanced supply to both northern and southern markets, with a total pulp capacity of nearly 5 million tons and paper capacity exceeding 7 million tons [15]. 2. Pulp Supply-Demand Dynamics - The domestic pulp production capacity is projected to reach 36.05 million tons by 2025, reflecting a 67.67% increase from 2021, while the growth rate of pulp production capacity significantly outpaces that of paper production [30]. - The report anticipates that the pulp price will experience a moderate recovery due to reduced supply from international producers and increased demand from domestic paper manufacturers [30][32]. 3. Integrated Operations and Cost Advantages - The company plans to launch 1.1 million tons of self-produced pulp, enhancing its integrated operations and ensuring stable profitability in the short term [4][19]. - The company benefits from a 300 RMB/ton energy cost advantage through its self-supplied power and steam, further solidifying its competitive edge [4][19]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 471.22 billion, 473.10 billion, and 516.25 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 33.60 billion, 38.67 billion, and 45.24 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 8.34%, 15.11%, and 16.97% respectively [5][9].

投资逻辑： 国产海风机组龙头，短中长三重逻辑支撑业绩进入向上通道。短 期维度，国内陆风重回通胀，我们不完全统计 2025 年各功率段陆 风机组不含塔筒中标均价同比提升超 10%，随着 2026-2027 年高价 订单交付占比提升，预计公司制造端业绩弹性有望持续释放。中期 维度，国内海风建设在经历三年调整后，需求景气度有望逐步回 暖，我们预计"十五五"阶段国内海风年平均装机有望从"十四五" 的 8GW 提升至 15-20GW，看好公司作为国内海风龙头充分受益。长 期维度，欧洲海风进入高速建设阶段，预计 2030 年后年均装机有 望提升至 15GW 以上，而当前欧洲本土海上大风机产能仅 4GW，叠 加欧洲开发商对项目降本的强烈诉求，预计公司凭借英国本土基 地实现欧洲海风市场突破，从而打开长期成长空间。 收购卫星能源系统研制商，太空光伏技术路线全面布局。2026 年 1 月 22 日，公司公告拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式收购中山 德华芯片 100%的股权，并募集配套资金。德华芯片业务主要聚焦 于柔性空间太阳电池芯片、柔性太阳电池电路等产品，具备砷化镓 组件级供应能力，总经理为蓝箭航天前高级副总裁杨文奕。2025 ...

业绩承压中海外稳健，AI 与 IP 布局持续深化 ——博纳影业点评报告 影视院线 执业证书编号：S0740525020002 Email：xianglan@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,374.52 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,374.52 | | 市价(元) | 9.49 | | 市值(百万元) | 13,044.19 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 13,044.19 | 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 博纳影业（001330.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：冯胜 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,608 | 1,461 | 1,590 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is focusing on cash recovery and its core elevator media business, which is expected to demonstrate long-term performance resilience [7] - The advertising market is anticipated to see dynamic adjustments, with major companies competing for AI traffic, which is expected to boost demand for offline marketing [9] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% of its net profit excluding non-recurring items, despite short-term profit impacts from asset impairment [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 130.85 billion, 2026E at 146.07 billion, and 2027E at 164.87 billion, with growth rates of 6.7%, 11.6%, and 12.9% respectively [9] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 34.14 billion, 61.32 billion, and 61.73 billion, reflecting a significant recovery in 2026 after a decline in 2025 [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.24, 0.38, and 0.39 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4][9] Market and Industry Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the elevator media sector, which is characterized by scarce high-quality resources [7] - The report highlights the positive outlook for consumer spending driven by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand [9] - Upcoming major sporting events in 2026 are expected to enhance marketing opportunities and consumer spending in related sectors [9][12]