证 券 研 究 报 告 牧高笛（603908）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 经营短期承压，25Q1 代工业务回暖 目标价：27.1 元 事项： 公司公布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣 非归母净利润 13.0/0.8/0.6 亿元，同比-10.4%/-21.6%/-42.7%。25Q1，公司实现 营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 3.3/0.3/0.3 亿元，同比-6.1%/-2.7%/-14.4%。 分红方面，公司拟 10 股派发现金股利 6.5 元（含税），对应分红率 72%。 评论： 风险提示：市场竞争加剧，原材料波动风险；人民币汇率波动风险等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,304 | 1,344 | 1,449 | 1,604 | | 同比增速(%) | -10.4% | 3.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | | 归母净利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.62% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 863 million yuan, down 0.28% [4][5] - The compressor business showed steady growth, generating 2.030 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 55.26% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 4.31% [5] - The vacuum pump segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue of 1.346 billion yuan, a decline of 18.04% year-on-year, primarily due to overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry [5] - The company is focusing on R&D innovation to capture opportunities in the data center sector and is expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 706 million yuan, an increase of 8.32% [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 112 million yuan, a significant decrease of 85.50% [4] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.484 billion yuan, 3.568 billion yuan, and 3.774 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of 762 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [7] - The diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.42 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.89, 12.09, and 10.99 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 196.22% [1][3]. - The company continues to pursue a global strategy, achieving a revenue of 84.49 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.94%, despite challenging economic conditions [2][9]. - The European market has been a standout performer, with overseas revenue reaching 67.50 billion CNY in 2024, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the company expects continued growth in this region [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from mattress sales was 44.15 billion CNY, up 10.95% year-on-year, while other product lines showed mixed results [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025 [3][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to reach 2.61 billion CNY in 2025 [9][12][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic memory foam mattress market, focusing on global capacity expansion and brand internationalization [9][10]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production capabilities in the U.S. to enhance market share [8][9]. - The company plans to strengthen regional market development and channel construction to enhance competitiveness and drive stable growth in its ODM business [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance, with a 2024 annual revenue of 575 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 125 million yuan, up 23.07% year-on-year [5][8] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.39% to 22.18 million yuan [5] - The calibration testing products are evolving, and the digital platform business is providing growth momentum, with applications expanding into various sectors including biomedicine and new energy [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 665 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 892 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 158 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 221 million yuan [8][11] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.04 yuan respectively, with a current P/E ratio of 23, 20, and 16 for the respective years [8][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 64.7% in 2024 to 69.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading brand in the snack food sector, with a clear growth path for its major products. Fish products provide a stable foundation, while quail eggs are expected to create a second growth curve. Potential categories like tofu and konjac have significant growth opportunities, and the expansion into new channels in 2025 is anticipated to drive revenue and profit beyond expectations [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Major Product Growth - The company's major product, deep-sea fish, has shown double-digit growth in Q1 2025 despite a high base from the previous year. The company expects rapid growth in fish products due to channel deepening and breakthroughs in new high-potential channels [2] - Quail eggs are positioned as the second growth curve, with ongoing product upgrades such as selenium-enriched and soft-boiled quail eggs. The company aims to enhance profitability and gross margin through differentiated products and brand innovation [2] - Potential products like tofu and konjac are in a rapid cultivation phase, with innovative offerings like short-shelf-life tofu and new flavors of konjac sauce expected to drive significant growth [2] New Channel Expansion - The company has a clear omnichannel strategy, with successful offline channel expansion and stable growth in distribution channels. High-potential channels like membership-based supermarkets are progressing well, and the snack wholesale channel is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025 [3] - Although online channels saw a decline in Q1 2025, they are entering a recovery phase, with expectations for future growth. The entry into new high-potential channels is expected to further enhance profitability [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The market anticipates the company will achieve mid-double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with profit growth lagging behind revenue due to adjustments in online channels and competition in the quail egg sector. However, the company is expected to exceed market expectations for revenue and slightly improve net profit margins [4] - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 28.9 billion, 34.34 billion, and 41.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.82%, 18.83%, and 19.51% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 3.43 billion, 4.18 billion, and 5.15 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.85%, 21.82%, and 23.18% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 3.036 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.53%, with a net profit of 429 million yuan, up 6.49% year-over-year [1][4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline to 39.20% in 2024, down 1.81 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin is projected to decrease to 13.98%, down 1.15 percentage points year-over-year [1][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and market coverage, particularly in energy storage and charging stations, while actively participating in AIDC construction [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from new energy power conversion equipment is expected to be 857 million yuan, down 5.80% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 29.64%, a decrease of 3.49 percentage points [2]. - Revenue from electric vehicle charging equipment is projected to reach 1.216 billion yuan, up 43.04% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 38.15%, down 1.46 percentage points [2]. - Industrial power supply revenue is expected to be 603 million yuan, up 13.11% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 54.23%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company aims to develop products and technologies suitable for grid-side energy storage and is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence [3]. - In the charging station segment, the company plans to enhance product coverage in commercial vehicle scenarios and increase penetration in the fast-charging field [3]. - The industrial power supply segment is expected to benefit from the accelerated development of AIDC, with the company positioning itself as a comprehensive power solution provider for data centers [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 3.98576 billion yuan, with a net profit of 564.56 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 31.61% [4][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.45 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 23.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year. The main business operations remained stable, with a decline in investment income impacting overall performance [2][6] - The company experienced a 36.1% year-on-year decline in net investment income to 310 million yuan, primarily due to pressure on the performance of its subsidiary, Sinotrans DHL [2][6] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the cancellation of small package exemptions, which are expected to affect air and sea freight demand on European and American routes. Close attention is needed on the subsequent tariff policies affecting the company's agency business and its subsidiary [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross profit increased by 10.3% year-on-year to 1.38 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.7 percentage points to 5.8%. The operating expenses ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1% [2][11] - The company's logistics volume showed mixed results, with contract logistics down 2.0% year-on-year, while project logistics and chemical logistics increased by 21.6% and 13.9%, respectively [11] Market Outlook - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets in Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of tariff shocks. Strategic overseas network development is underway, with the completion of the second phase of the warehouse in Thailand [2][11] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 3.56 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2, 9.8, and 9.0 times [2][11]

公司研究丨点评报告丨厦门国贸（600755.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩显著承压，股东回报积极 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年，公司实现营收 3544.4 亿元，同比下降 24.3%，归母净利润 6.3 亿元，同比下降 67.3%。 2024 年第四季度，公司实现营收 681.1 亿元，同比增长 0.9%，归母净利润-0.9 亿元，同比下 降 275.4%。尽管 1Q25 经营环境依然复杂，但公司持续推进"三链融合"新模式，优化业务结 构，主要经营品种稳中有进。公司经营底部逐步明朗，期待拐点来临，建议积极把握底部布局 机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 厦门国贸（600755.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩显著承压，股东回报积极 [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous year despite a decline in revenue [6] - The semiconductor segment has seen substantial growth, with sales revenue increasing by 94.65% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and successful product development [7] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and enhancing its R&D efforts, particularly in the semiconductor field, which is expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -98 million yuan, a decline of 165.02% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 39.97%, down 8.98 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -8.69%, a decrease of 12.37 percentage points [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 689 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.92%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 336.06% to 38 million yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.039 billion yuan, 3.554 billion yuan, and 4.369 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 194 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 521 million yuan [11] - The projected diluted EPS for the same period is 0.69 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, respectively [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the semiconductor testing equipment market, with a strategic partnership and investment in related companies to enhance its competitive edge [8] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings in the display and new energy sectors, although these segments are currently facing challenges [9][10]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月18日 立讯精密（002475.SZ） 优于大市 收购闻泰产品集成业务，汽车和 ODM 业务高增长 内生外延支撑公司 2024 业绩稳健增长。公司公布 2024 年业绩，实现营收 2687.95 亿(YoY +15.91%)，归母净利润 133.66 亿(YoY +22.03%)，毛利率 10.41%(YoY -1.17pct)，净利率 5.42(YoY +0.14pct)。毛利率下滑主要因个 别智能可穿戴产品产能利用率不足、全球布局导致国内产能短期过剩及海外 扩展前期空档等，目前已基本正常。1Q25 营收 617.88 亿(YoY +17.90%)，归 母净利润 36.79 亿(YoY +21.88%，QoQ +25.76%)，毛利率 11.18%(YoY +0.43pct，QoQ +3.31pct)，净利率 5.47%(YoY +0.56pct，QoQ +0.24pct)。 收购闻泰科技部分产品集成业务，ODM 业务快速增长。闻泰科技拟将公司旗 下产品集成业务相关 9 家标的公司和资产转让给立讯精密。1 月 26 日立讯通 讯完成收购闻泰通讯持有的嘉兴永瑞、上海闻泰电子和 ...