24Q4 业绩超预期，25 年国补红利持续释 放 ——京东集团 24Q4 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测 2024-2026 年收入为 11588/12586/13322 亿元（原 2024- 2026 年预测为 11385/12098/12878 亿元，因以旧换新政策效果超预期上调收 入），经调整归母净利润为 436/483/510 亿元（原 2024-2026 年预测为 421/472/507 亿元，因带电类等高毛利商品占比增加上调利润率）。参考可比公 司，给予京东零售业务 2025 年 12xPE，分部估值计算公司市值 6480 亿元，对应每 股股价 220.48 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.083），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧，行业监管趋严。 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 09618.HK | | --- | --- | | | 买入（维持） | | 股价（2025年03月12日） | 156.7 港元 | | 目标价格 | 220.5 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 192.3/94.65 港元 | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 361 Degrees (1361.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.63, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 4.59 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a net profit growth of 19% for 2024, aligning with expectations. The end-of-period inventory increased by 56% to HKD 2.1 billion due to early stocking for the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The company plans to expand its "super product stores" to 100 by the end of 2025, aiming to create a store model similar to "Uniqlo" in the sports industry [7][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% for 2025, with a net profit margin projected between 10-12% [8]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 10.07 billion, with a gross profit margin of 41.5% and a net profit margin of 11.4% [5][9]. - The forecast for 2025E-2027E indicates revenues of HKD 11.24 billion, HKD 12.41 billion, and HKD 13.66 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 10.4%, and 10.1% respectively [8][9]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be HKD 1.28 billion, HKD 1.41 billion, and HKD 1.57 billion, with growth rates of 11.3%, 10.5%, and 11.0% respectively [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has seen strong performance in its running and basketball categories, with year-on-year growth rates of 30% and 20% respectively. High-end products have also made significant contributions to sales [6][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its inventory management and improving cash flow, with a projected operating cash flow of HKD 70 million for 2024 [5][8].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 京东集团-SW（9618）公司季报点评 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 分析师:汪立亭 Tel:(021)23219399 | 3[T月ab12le日_S收t盘oc价kI（nf港o元] ） | 156.7 | | --- | --- | | 周股价波动（港元） 52 | 93.4-192.3 | | 总股本/流通股（百万股） | 3183/2860 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） | 498844/448197 | 相关研究 [《Ta京bl东e_集Re团po3rQtIn20fo24] 季 报 点 评 ： 3Q24 Non-GAAP 净利同比增 24%，看好消费品"以 旧换新"带动收入景气延续》2024.11.27 《 京 东 集 团 2Q2024 季 报 点 评 ： 2Q24 Non-GAAP 净利增 69%超预期》2024.08.21 《京东集团 1Q2024 季报点评：1Q24 收入增 7 超预期，供需两侧正向飞轮转动》2024.06.09 市场表现 资料来源：海通证券研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.12, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 504 million for 2024, a significant increase of 2544% year-on-year, primarily due to a USD 70 million upfront payment from Merck. The net profit for 2024 was HKD 28.3 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 107% [1]. - The clinical trial results for ABSK021 in the treatment of TGCT in Phase III were positive, achieving a 54.0% overall response rate (ORR) compared to 3.2% in the placebo group, with significant improvements in key secondary endpoints [2]. - The company is advancing its clinical trials for ABSK011, which has received approval for Phase III registration trials, showing promising results in earlier phases with an ORR of 44.8% in HCC patients [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of HKD 630 million in 2025, with an upward revision of 2026 revenues from HKD 617 million to HKD 684 million, and projected revenues of HKD 634 million in 2027. The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to HKD 45 million and HKD 68 million, respectively, with a forecast of HKD 98 million for 2027 [6]. Clinical Development - ABSK021 has shown excellent efficacy and safety in its Phase III clinical trials for TGCT, with a low rate of treatment-related adverse events and no evidence of cholestatic liver toxicity [2]. - The company is also progressing with ABSK011, which has received approval for Phase III trials, targeting advanced or unresectable HCC patients [4]. Market Potential - The ACH indication presents a significant unmet medical need, with a global prevalence of approximately 360,000 affected individuals. The report highlights the potential of FGFR2/3 inhibitors like ABSK061 in addressing this need [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.10, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion. This growth is partly attributed to the increase in market trading volume and a decrease in the fire power price difference [2][7]. - The target price adjustment reflects a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 22% and 21% respectively, due to anticipated limitations on wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices [2][7]. - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio of 6.8 for 2025 is below the historical average, suggesting that the market has partially priced in uncertainties regarding electricity prices and utilization hours for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecasts - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.132 billion, with a slight decrease in the forecast for 2025 to HKD 105.084 billion, reflecting a 6.8% reduction from previous estimates [6][15]. - Operating profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 21.965 billion, with a decrease in 2025 to HKD 21.947 billion, indicating a 19.2% drop from prior forecasts [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.727 billion, with a forecasted decline to HKD 13.954 billion in 2025, representing a 21.9% reduction from earlier predictions [6][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s installed capacity is projected to increase significantly, with total capacity expected to reach 68,507 MW by 2024 and 78,507 MW by 2025, with a growing share of renewable energy [8]. - The report anticipates that the proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity will rise from 48% in 2024 to 53% in 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation breakdown indicates that the thermal power segment is valued at HKD 16.837 billion, while the renewable energy segment is valued at HKD 102.778 billion, leading to a total valuation of HKD 119.6 billion [9].

4[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 48.0 64.3 68.4 零跑汽车（9863）公司公告点评 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[3Ta月b1le3_日S收to盘ck价I（nf港o]币） | 50.10 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港币） | 18.64-50.40 | | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） | 1337/1116 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港币） | 55932/66982 | 相关研究 [《Ta提b前le一_R年e净p利or转tI正nf，o]Q4 毛利率预计 13%》 2025.01.14 《24Q3 销量创历史新高，毛利率环比大幅 改善》2024.11.15 《经营稳健向好，智驾投入加大，全方位与 Stellantis 开展合作》2024.08.16 市场表现 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 Email:lym15114@hai ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 157.2 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching 347 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus expectations. The company's Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was 11.3 billion CNY, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [1][4]. - The retail segment of JD Group saw revenue of 307.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by the optimization of product categories and enhanced service capabilities [2]. - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 52.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with a notable focus on international expansion and operational efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, JD Group's total revenue was 347 billion CNY, with product revenue at 281 billion CNY and service revenue at 66 billion CNY, marking increases of 14.0% and 10.8% respectively [1]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 1,158.8 billion CNY, a 6.8% increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 47.8 billion CNY, up 35.8% year-on-year [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue in Q4 2024 was 307.1 billion CNY, with a 14.7% year-on-year growth. The operating profit was 10 billion CNY, reflecting a 44.7% increase [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category generated 174.1 billion CNY, a 15.8% increase, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy and service upgrades [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics reported revenue of 52.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a 10.4% year-on-year growth and an operating profit of 1.8 billion CNY, up 37.1% [3]. - The company is expanding its international logistics capabilities, with a focus on enhancing service offerings globally [3]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has been actively repurchasing shares, completing a buyback of approximately 255 million A shares, representing 8.1% of the shares outstanding as of the end of 2023, with a total expenditure of about 3.6 billion USD [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period in 2023 [7][17] - The company expects a positive trend for its continuing business segments in 2025, with projected revenues of $938 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 58% [2][8] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [14][17] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14][15] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in the second half of 2024 [14][17] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [15][16] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year [14][17] Legend Biotech - After the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at approximately $3.231 billion [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The expected net profit for 2024 is HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation - The valuation of the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period last year [7][17] - The company expects a positive trend for its continuing business segments in 2025, with projected revenues of $938 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 58% [2][8] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million, also growing by 15% [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [14][17] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in the second half of 2024 [14][17] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [15][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year [14][17] Legend Biotech - Following the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was approximately $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at about $3.231 billion [16][17]