证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 09 年 月 日 哈尔斯（002615.SZ ） 保温杯制造龙头，制造+客户壁垒深厚，盈利水平有望逐渐恢复 ➢ 公司介绍：保温杯制造龙头，外销代工为主，自主品牌同步发力 公司创立于 1985 年，专注于不锈钢真空保温器皿（收入占比 80%+）、 玻璃杯壶、铝瓶、塑杯的研发、设计、制造与销售，公司销售模式包括 OEM （为主）和自主品牌销售，自主品牌主要包含国内自主品牌"哈尔斯"、 2016 年收购的瑞士杯壶品牌"SIGG"等，收入以外销为主（24 年收入占 比 87%），产品远销全球 80 多个国家和地区。公司收入持续增长，利润 因海外生产基地爬坡、关税扰动等因素短期有所承压。 ➢ 保温杯行业：结构升级、稳定增长，中国供给处于核心地位 2025 年全球杯壶市场规模有望达 48 亿美元，呈现稳健增长的态势。随着 消费者对情绪价值的追求，杯壶产品已逐渐由传统的耐用品向快消品、时 尚品、收藏品以及生活方式的象征转变，这些趋势不仅成为产品高溢价的 重要因素，更拓宽了行业的市场边界。从区域分布来看，北美、欧洲和亚 太地区是全球杯壶市场的主要消费区 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨海光信息（688041.SH） [Table_Title] 海光信息深度报告：双轮驱动，国产算力新生态 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 海光信息是我国国产高端 CPU 和 DCU 双领军企业，其高端通用 CPU 业务随着信创深入推进， 凭借生态优势、性能优势和安全优势等综合优势最大受益持续高速增长。DCU 业务在 AI 时代 国产算力总量和份额双升趋势下凭借产品持续迭代和"类 CUDA"环境兼容以及和中科曙光协 同有望迎来爆发。拟吸收合并中科曙光，将其具备从核心 AI 芯片到智算集群单点到全栈的产品 和综合能力，发布业界领先超节点产品，有望通过" AI 计算开放架构"打造国产算力新生态， 成长为我国 AI 时代算力综合平台。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 余庚宗 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490516030002 SFC：BUX668 %% %% %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 40 %% %% %% %% resear ...

2025年 12月 02 日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 中农立华（603970） 周期望好,攻守兼备 报告摘要 ◆ 25Q3 收入增长,盈利周期承压 2025 年前三季度,公司实现营业收入 89.50 亿元,同比增长 5.11% ;实现归母净利润 1.51 亿元,同比下降 13.63%;扣非归母净利润为 1.46 亿元,同比下降13.15%。单季度来看,O3 实现营业收入 22.05 亿元, 同比增长 11.16%。Q3 单季度实现归母净利润 907 万元,同比下滑。公 司盈利承压主要系价格周期、行业竞争、市场淡季、减值和毛利率降低 等因素所致。 ◆ 周期有望改善,攻守可以兼备 农药价格下行周期经历较长时间。据 iFind,截至 11 月 21 日当周原 药价格指数为 74.08 点,较 21 年高点累计下降 65.0%,原药价格下行周期 已超４年。农药价格周期积极因素正在积累。一是去库存基本完成。农药 头部企业终端库存去化基本完成,库存处于历史较低水平,下游刚性需求推 动补库存逐步开启。二是成本端推动。环保投入增加,叠加黄磷等原材料 涨价推动农药提价。三是政策端反内卷推进。今年，中国农药工业协会开 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company focuses on the energy and information sectors, specializing in the research, production, and sales of transformers and power supply products. Since its establishment in 1999, the company has seen significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2024, and net profit growth at a CAGR of 54% during the same period [1][18] - The transformer market is experiencing upward momentum, presenting historic overseas expansion opportunities for domestic manufacturers due to increasing demand driven by renewable energy integration and data center power needs [2][31] - The company has established a strong overseas presence, with 70% of its business in North America and Europe, and is expanding its global manufacturing and sales network to enhance supply chain efficiency [3][78] - The company has a rich product matrix based on power electronics technology, including energy products, lighting products, and other incubated products, which positions it well to seize market opportunities [4][23] - The company is strategically investing in the data center sector, with significant growth potential as it expands its transformer product offerings and market reach [5][49] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply rooted in the power supply industry since its inception, evolving its product offerings to align with global technological trends and market demands [17] Market Dynamics - The global energy transition is accelerating, with renewable energy installations expected to reach 4600 GW from 2025 to 2030, significantly increasing the demand for transformers [33][38] - The aging power grid in developed countries is creating a pressing need for equipment replacement, further driving transformer demand [58][61] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56.37 billion, 72.89 billion, and 91.96 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 29%, and 26% [6][11] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.76 billion, 5.03 billion, and 6.83 billion, with a CAGR of 33% [6][11] Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from lower production costs and a more efficient supply chain compared to overseas competitors, positioning it favorably for international expansion [72][66] - The establishment of overseas manufacturing bases enhances responsiveness to local market demands and mitigates potential trade and logistics risks [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

公司研究 当前价：21.68 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证 券 研 究 报 告 苏州规划（301505）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 拟收购东进航科，与低空数字化先锋军共建城市立体 规划新蓝图——华创交运|低空 60 系列研究（二十五） 建筑设计及服务Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 08 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 11, ...

铜陵有色(000630)公司研究报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 铜资源紧缺度上升，米拉多二期指引增长 ——铜陵有色(000630)首次覆盖报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 铜全产业链企业，受限铜加工费短期利润承压 [Table_Main] 公司研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 企业实现了铜全产业链布局，核心业务涵盖铜矿勘探、采选、冶炼及精深加 工等关键环节。联合旗下铜箔加工企业铜冠铜箔，成功实现了双主体上市。 近五年，企业营业收入与净利润稳步提升。2020-2024 年，公司营业收入年 均复合增长率为 9.99%，归母净利润年均复合增长率为 34.20%。 但受到铜加工费持续走低和海外子公司所得税政策调整事件影响，企业短 期利润承压。2025 年前三年度，企业实现营收 1218.93 亿元（同比 +14.66%），归母净利润 17.71 亿元（同比-35.13%）。2025 年半年度铜产 品毛利仅 34.45 亿元（同比-26.97%），占比下降至 56.91%。黄金、硫酸等 副产品成为利润新支撑点。 铜精矿供给增长放缓，新兴领域拉动铜产品需求 供给端，全球铜储量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is upgraded to "Buy" [6][8]. Core Views - 德昌股份 is a leading domestic enterprise in automotive EPS motors, extending its high-end motor technology barriers into the robotics sector, particularly in joint motors, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [1][5]. - The market currently perceives the company as a traditional home appliance manufacturer, underestimating its growth potential [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Transformation - The company's business focus has significantly shifted, with home appliance operations serving as a cash cow. The automotive EPS motor business, developed over the past five years, has entered a growth phase and is becoming the second growth curve for the company. The market's understanding of the automotive EPS motor sector is limited, as it has higher technical barriers compared to ordinary motors. Previously, the global market was dominated by foreign giants like Nidec and Bosch, but 德昌股份 has established itself as a leading domestic player with strong product capabilities and competitive advantages [3][5]. Robotics Sector Potential - The difficulty of entering the robotics joint motor market is higher than market expectations, and the company's capabilities in this area are significantly underestimated. There is little market anticipation regarding the company's foray into this sector [3][5]. Performance Indicators and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include the revenue share and profitability of automotive EPS motors, as well as customer acquisition and order status in the robotics sector. Catalysts for growth include an increase in revenue share from automotive EPS motors and successful breakthroughs in customer acquisition for the robotics business [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 德昌股份 from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 46.9 billion, 53.9 billion, and 63.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 14.8%, and 17.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.0 billion, 4.0 billion, and 5.7 billion yuan, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a regional leader to a national player in the hybrid corn seed market, driven by high-quality varieties and strategic expansion [3][5]. - The company has a strong research and development foundation, with its actual controllers holding over 51% of the shares, ensuring effective management and strategic direction [17][18]. Financial Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 288.24 million yuan in 2023 to 660.40 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from 2020 to 2024 [4][31]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 53.22 million yuan in 2023 to 155.94 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 20.3% [4][31]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain stable, with values around 17% to 19% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company specializes in hybrid corn seed production, research, and sales, with a focus on high yield, stability, and comprehensive resistance [11][12]. - The company has expanded its market presence from the Southwest region to nationwide, with significant growth in the Central China region, which has become its largest revenue source [5][23]. Industry Context - The domestic corn seed market is characterized by oversupply and severe homogenization, with a supply-demand ratio of 175% for the 2024/2025 season [50]. - The global seed market is expected to grow steadily, with China's market projected to reach 893 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% [37][39]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality corn seeds, as the average yield in China is only 60% of that in the United States [42].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The portable energy storage industry continues to grow, with the company's new product launches expected to drive market share growth. The company aims for revenue growth of no less than 39%/40.3%/39.5% for 2025-2027, reflecting confidence in business expansion [2][4]. - The household energy storage market presents significant opportunities, with the company's 5 kWh portable home storage product expected to contribute to incremental performance. The global household storage market is projected to reach approximately $16 billion in 2023 [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its brand influence and profitability through channel expansion and product innovation, with expected revenue of 50.11 billion, 76.32 billion, and 94.83 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabao New Energy is a leading portable energy storage brand, primarily selling products under the Jackery brand in multiple countries, with North America accounting for about 50% of sales. The company plans to launch large-capacity, lightweight new products in 2025 to capture differentiated market segments [2][4]. Portable Energy Storage - The industry shows sustained growth potential, with projected penetration rates of approximately 10% in the U.S. and 11% in Japan by 2025. The decline in lithium iron phosphate prices in 2023 is expected to stabilize, allowing the company's gross margin to gradually return to a steady state [2][3][4]. - The company is expanding its channel matrix, with significant growth in independent website revenue, which increased by 55.25% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3]. Household Energy Storage - The global household storage market is expected to reach a scale of approximately $16 billion in 2023, with the company's 5 kWh portable home storage product offering differentiated advantages [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its channels and has seen significant revenue growth in its independent website, which is expected to enhance profitability [3]. Financial Analysis - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 50.11 billion, 76.32 billion, and 94.83 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.85 billion, 4.06 billion, and 6.14 billion RMB [4][8].