Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [6] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, with a focus on operational efficiency [1] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in North America, with a significant increase in store count [2] - The gross margin remains stable, but profits are under pressure due to increased operational costs [3] - The company is positioned as a global leader in the retail sector, leveraging its supply chain and light asset model for rapid expansion [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 416 million yuan, a decrease of 28.52% [1] - The number of domestic stores decreased by 111, totaling 4,275 stores, but same-store sales showed a slight decline in the single digits, indicating improved performance [1] Overseas Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO added 95 overseas stores, bringing the total to 3,213, a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, with an average store revenue growth of 4.6% [2] - The overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3] - Operating expenses increased significantly, with sales expenses rising by 71.4% due to investments in direct stores and related costs [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.012 billion yuan, 24.608 billion yuan, and 28.044 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.951 billion yuan, 3.653 billion yuan, and 4.325 billion yuan [4][5] - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory with a focus on optimizing various business segments and supply chains [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 293.9, indicating a potential upside of 26.0% from the current price of HKD 233.2 [6][16]. Core Insights - The launch of the Labubu 3.0 series has created a global phenomenon, significantly increasing the brand's visibility and popularity, particularly in the collectible toy market [1][2]. - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated growth in Q2 2025, driven by the popularity of Labubu 3.0, with projected revenue growth of 95%-100% year-on-year [2]. - The company is shifting its focus to the North American and European markets, which are expected to become the main engines of overseas expansion in 2025, with significant revenue growth anticipated [3]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards, with revenue projections increased by 17% and 15%, respectively, and profit forecasts raised by 20% and 18% [4][13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 25,732 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.4% [5][12]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 7,030 million, with a year-on-year increase of 124.9% [5][12]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the U.S. market saw a revenue increase of 895%-900% in Q1 2025, while Europe experienced a growth of 600%-605%, surpassing Southeast Asia's growth of 345%-350% [3]. - The company's strategy includes relocating a majority of U.S. orders to Vietnam to mitigate potential supply chain risks associated with tariffs [3]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 26.7 for 2026, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.4x, which is lower than most Chinese consumer stocks [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly year-on-year, contributing to the overall profitability of the company [4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 迈富时（02556.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 专精 CRM 软件，软件 Agentic 时代领军 1. AI+SaaS 模块：考虑公司 AI+SAAAS 业务仍处于快速成长阶段，利润率尚 未释放，因此采用 PS 法估值。选择美股 CRM、HUBS 作为 AI+SaaS 模块的 可比公司，2025 年可比公司平均 PS 为 8.55 倍，取可比公司平均估值 8.55x， 对应 AI+SaaS 部分估值为 124.23 亿元。 2. 精准营销模块：精准营销模块具有一定利润率，因此采用可比公司结合 PE 估值方法作为估值依据，选择蓝色光标、易点天下作为精准营销服务的可比公 司，2025 年可比公司平均 PE 为 43.0x，取可比公司平均估值 43.0x，取蓝色光 标与易点天下 2015-2024 年净利率均值，对应精准营销部分净利率约为 6%， 对应估值约为 23.27 亿元。 ❖ 风险提示：竞争加剧；宏观经济波动；研发进度不及预期，大模型及 AIGC 商 业化不及预期。 [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core partner of Huawei, benefiting from the dual drivers of HarmonyOS and AI for performance recovery. Huawei accounted for 41% of the company's revenue in 2024, anchoring its business in the Harmony ecosystem and AI computing operations [5][8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 onwards, driven by the commercial launch of HarmonyOS PCs and the maturation of AI computing networks [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Huawei Chain Core Positioning and Business Diversification - The company has established a deep partnership with Huawei, which is its largest customer, contributing approximately 41% of its revenue in 2024 [19] - The business structure is clear, with the Technology Professional Group (TPG) dominating revenue, accounting for 87% in 2024 [28] - The company is expected to recover from a revenue low in 2023, with a projected revenue of 169.5 billion RMB in 2024, showing a significant improvement from a -14% decline in 2023 [29] 2. Innovation in Trustworthy Computing: Huawei as a Pioneer - The HarmonyOS has undergone significant evolution, with the release of the fully autonomous version expected in October 2024, marking a key milestone in the ecosystem's development [39] - The company has contributed over 485 million lines of code to the open-source HarmonyOS, positioning itself as a leading player in the ecosystem [62] 3. AI: Dual Drivers of Computing Operations and Agent Implementation - The company is positioned as a "computing operator + agent implementer," operating multiple AI computing centers to enhance utilization rates [5][8] - The AI business is expected to become a new growth engine, with projected revenue from AI-related value-added services anticipated to increase significantly by 2025 [5][8] 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 178 billion, 194.6 billion, and 221.4 billion RMB, with net profits of 6.1 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.9 billion RMB respectively [6][8] - The report employs a relative valuation method, comparing the company to peers in the Huawei chain, with an average PE of 50x for 2025E, applying a 56% discount for its Hong Kong listing, resulting in a target market value of 170 billion RMB [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 293.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26.0% from the current price of 233.2 HKD [6][16]. Core Insights - The launch of Labubu 3.0 has created a global phenomenon, significantly boosting the brand's visibility and popularity, leading to long queues outside stores and endorsements from celebrities [1][2]. - The overseas popularity of Labubu is expected to drive domestic sales growth, with projections indicating a year-on-year revenue increase of 95%-100% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is shifting its focus to the North American and European markets, with significant revenue growth reported in these regions, outpacing Southeast Asia [3]. - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been raised by 17%, with profit estimates increased by 20%, reflecting strong growth expectations [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25,732 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.4% [5][12]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 7,030 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 124.9% [5][12]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's stock is currently trading at 26.7 times the estimated P/E for 2026, suggesting a PEG ratio of approximately 0.4x, which is lower than most Chinese consumer stocks [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is reported at 2,127 million HKD, indicating strong market interest [6]. Strategic Focus - The company is actively relocating a majority of its U.S. orders to Vietnam and expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia and Mexico to mitigate potential supply chain risks [3]. - The brand's strong market presence allows it to pass on potential tariff costs to consumers, reducing concerns about trade tensions affecting its U.S. market prospects [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Meituan is actively responding to competition in the food delivery sector while awaiting the release of long-term value [3] - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and profit metrics [11] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 866 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [11] - Operating profit reached 106 billion RMB, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Net profit was 101 billion RMB, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA stood at 123 billion RMB, a 52% year-over-year increase [11] Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: In Q1 2025, the food delivery segment saw a steady growth with a year-over-year increase in order volume of 9.3%. The company plans to invest 100 billion RMB over the next three years to enhance the quality of the food service industry [7] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: This segment maintained strong growth, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users by the end of March 2025. The daily order volume for non-food items exceeded 18 million [7] - **In-store and Travel Business**: The in-store and travel segment reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2025, with active merchant numbers increasing by over 25% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion RMB, 447.7 billion RMB, and 510.6 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are 40.9 billion RMB, 54.7 billion RMB, and 67.6 billion RMB for the same years [18] - The target market capitalization for Meituan in 2025 is set at 830.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 136 RMB per share [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.9 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The core local business revenue reached 643 billion CNY, growing 17.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit of 135 billion CNY, reflecting a 39.1% increase and an operating profit margin of 21%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The report highlights the healthy growth in food delivery and strong momentum in instant retail, although increased competition in Q2 may impact profits [3] - New business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year to 222 billion CNY, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% to 2.3 billion CNY [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3862 billion CNY, 4461 billion CNY, and 4979 billion CNY respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 405 billion CNY, 530 billion CNY, and 706 billion CNY [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 17.93, 13.69, and 10.28 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 17.249 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.24% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 2.063 billion, down 10.41% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit increased by 1.3% to HKD 2.350 billion [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, with a payout ratio of 50.80% [2] Revenue Analysis - The company experienced a decline in revenue from the Chinese market by 16.49% year-on-year, while the North American market grew by 3.17% and the European market increased by 19.19% [3] - The Chinese market accounted for 58.70% of total revenue, indicating its continued importance despite current challenges [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline channels, increasing the number of stores to 7,367 in the Chinese market [3] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin was 40.49%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.75%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for different product lines varied, with the sofa and related products seeing an increase, while the bedding segment faced a decline [4] - Overall, the company managed to control its operating expenses effectively, resulting in a total expense ratio decrease of 0.78 percentage points to 23.51% [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned in a large consumer market with significant growth potential, particularly in its domestic sales and recovering export business [5] - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to HKD 18.063 billion, HKD 19.369 billion, and HKD 20.889 billion respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected at HKD 0.59, HKD 0.65, and HKD 0.71, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and adjusted net profit of 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2][4] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - The company is prioritizing long-term ecological investments over short-term profit margins, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in profitability but is expected to strengthen market share and ecological balance in the long run [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations by 1.4% and 1.3% from the report and market respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 18% and 13% [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] - New business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 18% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Core local business maintained steady growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year respectively [3] - The management emphasized a commitment to compete effectively in the instant retail sector, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company reported strong growth in the takeaway and flash purchase segments, with daily order volume growth accelerating to approximately 10% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - For the full year 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 15%, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is adjusted to 177 HKD, representing a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.9 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 3.2 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's total electricity sales volume for the first four months of 2025 increased by 0.33% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while hydropower saw a decline due to seasonal factors [7][8]. - The integration of hydropower assets is progressing smoothly, with the company expected to hold a 55.13% stake in Yuanda Environmental Protection post-restructuring, enhancing asset value and ensuring long-term control [3][8]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50%, with a projected dynamic dividend yield of approximately 6% for 2025, reflecting a strong focus on shareholder returns [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 44,262 million, with projections of RMB 54,213 million for FY2024 and RMB 55,346 million for FY2025, indicating a growth rate of 1.3% in FY2023 and 22.5% in FY2024 [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 2,660 million in FY2023 to RMB 4,338 million in FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28.9% [6][16]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 0.22 in FY2023 to RMB 0.35 in FY2025, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio from 13.6 to 8.4 [6][16]. Asset Management - The restructuring plan includes a significant increase in the company's stake in hydropower assets, with the National Power Investment Corporation planning to complete the integration of additional hydropower assets within three years [3][8]. - The transaction's price-to-book ratio is estimated at 1.87, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 20 for 2024, indicating favorable valuation metrics [3][8]. Dividend Policy - The company has a history of generous dividend payouts, achieving a payout ratio of 60% in 2024 and committing to maintain a minimum payout ratio of 50% in the future [4][9]. - The recent increase in shareholding by major stakeholders further underscores the long-term investment value of the company [4][9].