m 2026 年 2 月 11 日 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 366.5 | 买进 | | | 产品组合 | | | | | 动力电池 | | | 74% | | 储能电池 | | | 16% | | 电池材料 | | | 4% | 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 宁德时代 (03750.HK) Buy 买进 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 沈嘉婕 目标价(港币) | 456 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 电力设备 | H 股价(2026/02/10) | 511.00 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数(2026/02/10) | 27,183.2 | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 610.5/0 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | 4,563.85 | H 股数(百万) | 155.92 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888.HK) [5] Core Insights - Kingsoft is expected to experience a structural differentiation in its performance, with gaming business under pressure while office software shows strong growth driven by AI and digital transformation [1][3] - The gaming revenue is projected to decline by 29% year-on-year in 4Q25, while the office business is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year in the same period [2][3] - The company has a strong cash position and significant undervaluation of its core equity holdings, providing a safety net against short-term performance fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 4Q25, Kingsoft's revenue is expected to be 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1] - The operating profit margin is projected to improve to 19% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with an annual operating profit margin of approximately 19% for 2025 [1] Gaming Business Outlook - The gaming segment is forecasted to see a revenue drop of 27% year-on-year for 2025, totaling 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The new game "Goose Duck" is expected to drive recovery in 2026, having shown strong user engagement with 5 million new users on its first day of public testing [2] Office Business Performance - The office software segment is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital transformation in government and enterprises, with WPS Office achieving 669 million monthly active devices [3] - The integration of AI features is anticipated to enhance user engagement and conversion rates, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025 to 1.29 billion RMB, down from a previous estimate of 2.07 billion RMB, while introducing a 2027 net profit forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [4] - The company is seen to have a high safety margin due to its robust cash reserves and significant equity undervaluation, suggesting potential for performance rebound post-2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Geekplus, indicating potential for over 15% return in the next 12 months [1][17]. Core Insights - Geekplus has officially launched Gino 1, the world's first general-purpose robot designed for warehousing, which is expected to enhance its position in the warehouse automation market [1]. - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimates of RMB 2,409 million for FY24, RMB 3,176 million for FY25, and RMB 4,316 million for FY26, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 31.9%, and 35.9% respectively [2]. - The revenue from AMR solutions is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 70.3% in FY24 and 32.0% in FY25 [13]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Geekplus reported revenue of RMB 2,143 million, with a year-on-year growth of 47.6% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive by FY25, reaching RMB 112 million, and further increasing to RMB 401.6 million in FY26 [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve from 30.8% in FY23 to 39.0% by FY27 [15]. Market Position and Strategy - Geekplus is positioned to capitalize on the increasing penetration of warehouse fulfillment AMRs, with 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets in the first half of FY25 [7]. - The company aims to expand its solutions offering by integrating embodied intelligence, which includes AI-powered robotic arms for picking and packaging tasks [7]. Share Performance - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 11.3% and a 6-month increase of 50.2% [6]. - The current market capitalization of Geekplus is approximately HK$ 37.88 billion [4]. Target Price - The target price for Geekplus is set at HK$ 26.70, indicating a downside of 4.4% from the current price of HK$ 27.94 [3].

2026年02月10日 证券研究报告 | 哔哩哔哩（9626.HK)深度 跨越盈利拐点，A I应用与游戏品类扩张加速商业化价值释放 公司研究 · 深度研究 传媒 · 传媒 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 财务越过盈亏平衡线，利润进入加速释放期。1）财务数据的质变是B站重要的拐点时刻。受惠于高毛利广告及游戏业务占比的提升，公司毛利率与净利率自2023年起持续改善， 成功在2024年Q3实现单季利润转正，并预计在2025年实现全年扭亏为盈，开启利润加速释放期 ；2）B站独特的PUGV生态使其在成本端具备天然优势：2024年内容成本仅占营收 的10%，远低于传统长视频平台。同时营销费用率已降至16%，表明平台已脱离"烧钱换增长"阶段，依靠内生社区动力即可实现用户的长效留存 ；3）在现金流方面，公司经营 性现金流于2023年转正，2025年前三季度进一步增长至53.08亿元，健康的自身造血能力结合持续优化的治理结构，正推动B站从流量平台向高利润商业体演进。 投资逻辑：短期具备安全边际，长线成长空间持续打开；1）我们维持盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。预计公司2025/26/27年经调后净利润分别为25.48/33.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - In 2025, Yum China achieved revenue of $11.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, up 2% year-on-year. The core operating profit reached $1.292 billion, reflecting an 11% increase [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising 24% to $140 million, and core operating profit increasing 23% to $185 million [1] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 1,706 stores during the year, and the proportion of franchised stores increased to 31% [1] - For 2026, the company aims to exceed 20,000 stores, with a net increase of over 1,900 stores, and targets for KFC and Pizza Hut franchised stores to reach 40%-50% [1] Financial Performance - Same-store sales growth for the company, KFC, and Pizza Hut in Q4 2025 was 3%, 3%, and 1% respectively, with same-store transaction volume increasing by 4% [2] - The overall restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting improvements due to reduced costs in raw materials and rent [2] - The company expects revenues of $12.301 billion, $13.343 billion, and $14.382 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits projected at $1.003 billion, $1.091 billion, and $1.196 billion [5] Strategic Initiatives - New brands are expanding, with K Coffee reaching 2,200 locations and KPRO expanding to over 200 locations, while Pizza Hut's WOW stores are entering approximately 100 new towns [3] - Single-store investment has been optimized, with KFC's investment decreasing from approximately $1.5 million in 2024 to $1.3 million in 2025, and Pizza Hut's from $1.2 million to $1 million [3] - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns at $1.5 billion in 2026, with expectations of average annual returns of $900 million to $1 billion in 2027-2028 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [5]. Core Insights - H&H International Holdings is positioned as a leader in family nutrition, with a fundamental upward turning point anticipated. The company has undergone significant growth and expansion through acquisitions, but has faced challenges in recent years due to market pressures and debt burdens. However, recent adjustments and a favorable interest rate environment are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - H&H International Holdings, established in 1999, has evolved from a probiotic-focused company to a comprehensive family nutrition leader, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.1% in revenue and 89.9% in net profit from 2007 to 2013. The company has since diversified through acquisitions, including brands like Swisse and Solid Gold, but faced a downturn from 2021 onwards due to pressures in the milk powder segment and increased debt [1][16][18]. Business Structure - The company operates through three main segments: Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC), Infant Nutrition and Care (BNC), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC). ANC is the largest segment, projected to generate revenue of 67.0 billion RMB in 2024, a 9.0% increase year-on-year. BNC is expected to decline by 25.8% to 43.8 billion RMB, while PNC is anticipated to grow by 5.3% to 19.7 billion RMB [21][22]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report revenues of 130.5 billion RMB and a net loss of 0.5 billion RMB in 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated with projected net profits of 4.2 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 886.3% [9][11]. Market Trends - The health supplement market is experiencing robust growth, particularly in China, where e-commerce channels are gaining prominence. The company is leveraging this trend through its Swisse brand, which has a diversified product matrix targeting various consumer segments [2][21]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery trajectory for the company, driven by improved operational efficiency, a reduction in interest expenses due to a favorable interest rate cycle, and a rebound in sales across its segments. The anticipated net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 886.3%, 38.2%, and 22.3%, respectively [9][11][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company reported total revenue of $2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% excluding foreign currency effects, and adjusted net profit of $140 million, a year-on-year increase of 22% excluding foreign currency effects [2][6]. - For the full year 2025, total revenue reached $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% excluding foreign currency effects, with adjusted net profit of $929 million, a year-on-year increase of 2% excluding foreign currency effects [2][6]. - The company is expected to open 1,900 new stores in 2026, maintaining a high store opening pace, which is anticipated to drive continued revenue growth [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, system sales increased by 7% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3% and same-store transaction volume growth of 4%, marking the twelfth consecutive quarter of growth [9]. - KFC's system sales grew by 8% year-on-year in Q4, with same-store sales increasing by 3% [9]. - Pizza Hut's system sales increased by 6% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 1% and same-store transaction volume growth of 13% [9]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, the highest for that quarter, with 36% being franchise stores [9]. - For the full year, KFC's store count grew by 12% to 12,997, while Pizza Hut's store count also grew by 12% to 4,168 [9]. Profitability - The operating profit margin and restaurant profit margin for KFC improved to 10.5% and 14%, respectively, while for Pizza Hut, they improved to 3.7% and 9.9% [9]. - The overall operating profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6% [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 35.30 and a target value of HKD 44.25 [6]. Core Views - The increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity. With improved demand for electrolytic aluminum and constrained supply, the upward potential for aluminum prices should not be overlooked. The average price of Shanghai aluminum futures for 2025 is projected to be RMB 20,750 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected cash dividend ratios of 49%, 48%, and 64% for the years 2022-2024. Assuming a price of RMB 23,000 for aluminum in 2026, the company's net profit could reach RMB 32.74 billion, leading to a dividend yield of 6.7% [8]. - The forecasted EPS for the company for 2025-2027 is expected to be RMB 2.20, RMB 3.28, and RMB 3.29 per share, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable value of HKD 44.25 per share [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company's main revenue is projected to be RMB 133.62 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 156.17 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to RMB 151.18 billion in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 159.87 billion in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 26.91 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.64 billion in 2024, before decreasing to RMB 40.85 billion in 2025, and then increasing to RMB 54.92 billion in 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 11.46 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.37 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, and then a substantial increase to RMB 32.74 billion in 2026 and RMB 32.84 billion in 2027 [4][31]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the booming global renewable energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative, which will support long-term demand growth. The automotive sector is increasingly adopting aluminum for lightweighting, while the photovoltaic sector will continue to drive aluminum demand [9][10]. - On the supply side, the growth of electrolytic aluminum production is limited due to energy constraints and existing capacity ceilings in China. The expected growth rate for electrolytic aluminum supply from 2025 to 2027 is around 1% [10][11]. - Overall, the combination of sustained demand growth and limited supply increases the potential for upward price elasticity in aluminum, which is expected to open up profit growth opportunities for electrolytic aluminum companies [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for MGM China [5]. Core Insights - The report aligns with the views of Citic Lyon Research, indicating that MGM International's recent management comments justify the higher licensing and brand fees charged to MGM China, although prior communications could have been handled better [5]. - The market is now focused on whether MGM China will increase its dividend payout ratio to offset the impact of rising costs on profitability, which Citic Lyon believes is a manageable threshold [5][8]. - The significant increase in licensing and brand fee revenue is attributed to MGM China's improved market share and Ebitdar, with total gaming revenue expected to grow 1.7 times to 16.2% and Ebitdar by 1.6 times to $1.203 billion by 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Licensing Fee Debate - The report discusses the rationale behind MGM International's decision to charge higher fees to MGM China, supported by reverse engineering analysis [5][7]. Dividend Payout Focus - Investors are expected to closely monitor the potential increase in the dividend payout ratio from 50% to above 53% to mitigate the effects of higher fees [8]. Catalysts for Growth - Continuous growth in the mid-market gaming segment, expansion of dividend payout ratios, and supportive Chinese policies are seen as factors driving profit recovery [9]. Company Overview - MGM China operates two casinos in Macau, focusing on high-quality mid-market strategies, with approximately 750 gaming tables, 1,920 slot machines, and 2,003 hotel rooms/suites [11]. Financial Metrics - As of February 9, 2026, MGM China's stock price is HKD 13.14, with a market capitalization of $6.39 billion and a consensus target price of HKD 18.17 [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Innovent Biologics [4]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics announced a milestone deal with Eli Lilly on February 8, 2026, granting overseas rights to certain oncology and immunology pipeline assets, receiving an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments of up to $8.5 billion [4][5]. - This transaction is viewed positively, reinforcing the recognition of Innovent's R&D capabilities by global pharmaceutical companies, which is a significant differentiator in the Chinese biotech sector [6]. - The company is expected to release at least nine Phase I/II data assets in oncology, cardiovascular/metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases between 2026 and early 2027, which could unlock substantial option value [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Innovent Biologics is a China-based biopharmaceutical company with a global perspective, focusing on the comprehensive development and commercialization of innovative drugs [10]. Recent Developments - The deal with Eli Lilly involves early development led by Innovent from proof of concept to Phase II, after which Eli Lilly will handle late-stage development and commercialization outside China [5]. - The assets involved in this transaction are undisclosed clinical projects, and the number of projects is fewer than the 11 preclinical assets involved in a previous deal between Hengrui Medicine and GSK [5]. Financial Performance - Innovent's product sales for Q4 2025 reached 3.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60%, exceeding market consensus expectations [6]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for 2026 include updates on proof of concept data for IBI363 in frontline non-small cell lung cancer and the initiation of multiple global Phase III projects led by Takeda [7].