证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,412 | 3,509 | 3,506 | 3,591 | 3,672 | | 同比增长率（%） | -1.12% | 2.87% | -0.11% | 2.44% | 2.25% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 859 | 659 | 817 | 853 | 874 | | 同比增长率（%） | -9.00% | -23.29% | 24.00% | 4.43% | 2.43% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.39 | | ROE（%） | 7.78% | 6.11% | 7.30% | 7.34% | 7.25% | | 市盈率（P/E） | 16.12 | 21.01 | 16.95 | 16.23 | 15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.295 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.79%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 261 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 316 million yuan, up 27.08%, with net profit increasing by 75.85% to 76 million yuan [1][3]. - The company is focusing on strategic investments in four key areas: industrial measurement and control, smart logistics, energy and environmental measurement, and robotic sensors. In Q1 2025, it completed a strategic investment in Kepler Robotics [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.530 billion yuan, 1.830 billion yuan, and 2.231 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 18.2%, 19.6%, and 21.9% [3][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 364 million yuan in 2025, 420 million yuan in 2026, and 505 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 40.0%, 15.2%, and 20.1% respectively [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 1.30 yuan in 2025, 1.49 yuan in 2026, and 1.79 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is assigned a target price of 78.0 yuan based on a 60x PE ratio for 2025, with the current price at 65.87 yuan [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is developing a "sensor forest" strategy, focusing on multi-physical quantity sensors, with significant growth in the mechanical sensor and instrument segment, which generated 631 million yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 41.81% [7][8]. - The company has sent samples of its six-dimensional force sensors to over 50 clients, with some entering the bulk order phase, indicating strong market demand [7][8].

公司报告 | 季报点评 中炬高新（600872） 证券研究报告 25Q1 业绩承压，毛利率有所提升 事件：25Q1 实现营收/归母净利润 11.02/1.81 亿元，同比-25.81%/-24.24%。 低于预期。 鸡精粉实现较快增长，美味鲜利润有所增长。25Q1 美味鲜营收/归母净利 润 10.82/1.77 亿元，同比-25.94%/-27.61%。其中酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其 他收入 6.48/1.30/0.51/1.99 亿元，同比-32%/-29%/-50%/-7%，主要品类收 入均有下降。 主要区域均有下滑，经销商数量快速增加。25Q1 美味鲜东部/南部/中西部 /北部收入分别为 1.95/4.19/2.30/1.83 亿元（同比-47%/-20%/-29%/-19%）。 25Q1 末美味鲜公司经销商同比净增 491 家至 2672 家，经销商数量快速增 长；平均经销商收入同-42%至 38 万元/家。 毛利率有所提升，费用投放减少。25Q1 年公司毛利率/净利率同比 +1.75/-1.17pct 至 38.73%/16.46%，毛利率显著提升。销售费用率/管理费用 率/财务费用率分别同比变动+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 31.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 80 million yuan, reflecting a 41.3% decrease year-on-year [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased due to weak industry demand, with a significant drop in sales during the Spring Festival promotional period. The gross profit margin remained stable at 10.4% year-on-year, while operating profit fell by 33% to 110 million yuan [12] - The company aims to focus on high-quality development by leveraging its brand advantages and enhancing product and channel construction. It plans to implement a strategy of "de-stocking, promoting sales, stabilizing prices, adjusting structure, optimizing models, and strengthening teams" from 2025 to 2027 [12] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.49 yuan, respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - In 2024, the company's revenue was 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.3%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year. The proposed dividend for the 2024 annual report is 0.65 yuan per share, combined with the 2024 interim dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, totaling 0.95 yuan per share [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company faced industry demand disruptions, leading to pressure on wholesale business, while self-operated business performed relatively well. The total number of stores in 2024 was 5,008 (net decrease of 98), with 4,655 franchise stores (net decrease of 120) and 353 self-operated stores (net increase of 22). In Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 4,831 (net decrease of 177), with 4,435 franchise stores (net decrease of 220) and 396 self-operated stores (net increase of 43) [12]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The total revenue in 2024 decreased by 15%, with a gross profit of 2.89 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year. The decline in gross profit was significantly smaller than the revenue decline. In the wholesale segment, gross profit from wholesale shipments was 600 million yuan (down 13% year-on-year), while self-operated segments showed growth, with offline self-operated gross profit of 500 million yuan (up 29% year-on-year) and online self-operated gross profit of 700 million yuan (up 19% year-on-year) [12][12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see EPS of 1.01, 1.11, and 1.26 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Despite the pressure on wholesale business due to industry fluctuations, the self-operated channels and e-commerce have achieved gross profit growth. The company is positioned to benefit from high dividend attributes and structural highlights, indicating potential for performance improvement [12][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 67.6 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 14.1%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, which is an increase in loss by 140 million yuan compared to the previous year. The net loss excluding non-recurring items was 2.41 billion yuan, an increase of 430 million yuan year-on-year. For the first quarter of 2025, the revenue was 17.5 billion yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million yuan, a decline of 80% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 140 million yuan, down 77% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 67.6 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 20.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expenses, management expenses, R&D expenses, and financial expenses accounted for 19.3%, 2.7%, 0.3%, and 1.7% of revenue respectively, with changes of +0.7, +0.3, -0.1, and stable year-on-year. The operating loss for 2024 was 2.56 billion yuan, an increase of 840 million yuan year-on-year [11]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a quality retail strategy and is focusing on upgrading its supply chain. It has developed 120 self-owned brand products in 2024, with 20 products achieving annual sales exceeding 50 million yuan. The company aims to collaborate with the supply chain to incubate 100 billion-level products in the future [11]. Future Outlook - The company expects significant improvements in profitability as the results of its store reform initiatives are released over the next 12-18 months. As of April 28, 2025, 62 reform stores have been opened, and the company anticipates that by the end of June 2025, the number of reform stores will exceed 124, with a target of 300 stores before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 41.9% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, in addition to the 0.1 yuan per share dividend proposed for the mid-year report, totaling 0.35 yuan per share [2][6]. - The company maintained a net increase of 111 stores in 2024, with a total of 1,511 jewelry stores, outperforming the industry in terms of store expansion [11]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 23.6% in 2024, with total gross profit remaining stable at 1.5 billion yuan [11]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company has adjusted its product structure based on demand, with a notable increase in the proportion of franchise business and traditional gold jewelry products, which saw a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year [11]. - In Q1 2025, the company benefited from a significant increase in gold prices, leading to a revenue growth of 25% year-on-year, primarily driven by new store openings and strong sales of fashion jewelry and traditional gold products [11]. Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core business, implement a "1+N brand" strategy, and enhance its international marketing efforts, which is expected to expand market share and achieve high-quality growth in the medium to long term [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to reach 0.52, 0.63, and 0.75 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable growth outlook [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 56.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 17.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.6%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 610 million yuan, down 23.6% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is experiencing pressure on performance but is accelerating strategic upgrades to adapt to market changes [12] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 56.79 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 8.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company's gold sales volume was 83 tons in 2024, a decline of 43% year-on-year, which is weaker than the industry average [12] - The company plans to expand its online business and develop new products that appeal to younger consumers [12] Future Outlook - The company expects to see improvements in performance as it transitions to a more refined and differentiated growth phase [12] - EPS is projected to reach 3.06, 3.41, and 3.73 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, which is a 1.7% increase year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.22 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.2%, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue reached 20.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.22 billion yuan, marking a 30.2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 320 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2][6]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved a total of 100 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 13 stores. Offline revenue was 15.1 billion yuan, growing 13% year-on-year, accounting for 75% of total revenue. E-commerce revenue reached 4.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60% year-on-year, representing 24% of total revenue [11]. Product Performance - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. The company experienced a structural increase in gross profit due to the strong sales of investment gold products, despite a decline in the gross profit margin [11]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its steady expansion across all channels in 2025, with expectations for stable growth in overall performance. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is maintained at a high level of 78%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.05, 1.16, and 1.27 yuan respectively [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [7][13]. Core Insights - The company has secured a significant order worth RMB 1 billion for offshore wind power projects in Europe, marking a period of rapid growth in its overseas business [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue and profit growth, with projected net profits of RMB 926 million, RMB 1.242 billion, and RMB 1.56 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 95.4%, 34%, and 26% [8][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to meet increasing demand, with plans to enhance output at its facilities [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the machinery and equipment sector, focusing primarily on wind power equipment, which constitutes 93% of its product mix [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the company's A-share price was RMB 28.28, with a market capitalization of RMB 178.42 billion [3]. - The company has a strong shareholder base, with the largest shareholder holding 38.93% of the shares [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 146%, and a net profit of RMB 230 million, up 336% year-on-year [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.45, RMB 1.95, and RMB 2.45 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 19, 14, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8][12]. Market Dynamics - The European offshore wind market is experiencing accelerated growth, with new approvals for offshore wind projects increasing by 46.3% year-on-year in 2024 [10]. - The company has established strong relationships with key clients in Europe, positioning itself as a leading player in the offshore wind supply chain [10].