公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 星环科技-U（688031）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 25Q1 亏损同比收窄，大模型业务初现突破 目标价：52.93 元 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 事项： 星环科技发布 2025 年一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 6436 万元，同比增长 2.59%；归母净利润-8358 万元；扣非净利润-8785 万元。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入 3.71 亿元，同比下降 24.31%；归母净利润-3.43 亿元；扣非净利润-3.80 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 371 | 427 | 508 | 605 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -343 | -238 | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in waste-to-energy in Hunan Province, focusing on stable revenue growth and profitability through its waste incineration projects and strategic acquisitions [9][14]. - The integration of waste incineration with IDC (Intelligent Data Center) presents significant collaboration potential, especially in the Changsha region, and the company is actively expanding its overseas projects [9][14]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, supporting high dividend payouts, with a commitment to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 50% in the long term [9][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Hunan Province Waste-to-Energy Leader - The company focuses on waste incineration power generation, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% in revenue and 11.0% in net profit from 2019 to 2024 [9][18]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has a waste incineration capacity of 11,800 tons per day, contributing significantly to local energy needs and carbon reduction [14][18]. 2. Strong Asset Base and Expansion - The company holds a 46.31% market share in Hunan's waste incineration market, with ongoing projects enhancing its competitive edge [30][31]. - The acquisition of 63% of Renhe Environment allows for vertical integration in the waste management chain, enhancing operational efficiency [52][54]. 3. Synergy of Waste Incineration and IDC - The company is leveraging its waste incineration capabilities to support IDC operations, which is expected to benefit from government policies promoting green computing [57][75]. - The integration of waste-to-energy solutions with data centers is projected to improve energy efficiency and reduce operational costs [57][63]. 4. Profitability and Financial Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 750 million, 797 million, and 841 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7, 14.7, and 13.9 [9][11]. - The company maintains a robust cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching 971 million yuan in 2024, supporting its high dividend payout policy [22][27].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology, setting a target price of 11.06 CNY, representing a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 8.28 CNY [6][58]. Core Insights - Qianli Technology, formerly known as Lifan Technology, is undergoing a significant transformation towards AI and smart vehicle integration, particularly after the entry of founder Yin Qi from Megvii Technology [1][2]. - The company is leveraging partnerships with Geely and Cao Cao Mobility to enhance its smart driving capabilities and develop a comprehensive ecosystem for autonomous vehicles [3][36]. - Financial projections indicate substantial growth in net profit, with expected figures of 0.81 billion CNY, 1.33 billion CNY, and 2.36 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 64.6%, and 78.4% [3][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Management Changes and Strategic Transformation - Qianli Technology has evolved from Lifan Technology, which was established in 1992, initially focusing on motorcycle engines and later expanding into passenger vehicles [1][13]. - The company underwent two major restructurings, with Geely and the Chongqing Liangjiang Fund becoming significant stakeholders post-bankruptcy in 2020, facilitating a shift towards AI-driven automotive solutions [1][16]. - In 2024, the company rebranded to Qianli Technology, emphasizing its commitment to smart vehicle technology and international expansion [1][19]. 2. AI and Smart Driving Strategy - The partnership with Geely has led to the development of the "Qianli Haohan" smart driving system, which aims to provide a full-stack technology ecosystem for autonomous driving [2][28]. - Qianli Technology is collaborating with Cao Cao Mobility to launch Robotaxi services, marking a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving in China [3][36]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly in large model applications, to improve smart cockpit solutions and user interaction [48][51]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for Qianli Technology indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 8.33 billion CNY, 10.02 billion CNY, and 12.44 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.4%, 20.3%, and 24.1% [53][54]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, reaching 9.99%, 10.66%, and 11.08% over the same period, driven by economies of scale [54]. - The valuation analysis suggests a price-to-sales ratio of 6x for 2025, aligning with comparable companies in the smart driving and Robotaxi sectors [56][58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11] Core Viewpoints - The current marine power strategy is being advanced, with policies increasingly focusing on underwater defense and deep-sea technology, indicating that underwater capabilities may become a key investment direction [3][7] - The company, China Marine Defense (600764.SH), is a leading player in underwater acoustic electronic defense equipment under the China Shipbuilding Group, possessing a full industrial chain capability in underwater acoustic equipment and is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of marine equipment [3][9] - The company is positioned as the capital operation platform for the electronic information sector of the China Shipbuilding Group, with potential to develop into a flagship platform for electronic information through professional integration [6][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Marine Defense is a core listed platform for the electronic information industry of the China Shipbuilding Group, directly controlled by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, and encompasses several specialized enterprises with strong technical capabilities [6][19] - The company operates in three main segments: electronic defense equipment, electronic information industry, and specialized technical services, with a core advantage in underwater acoustic electronic defense equipment [6][24] Market Trends - The emphasis on underwater defense is increasingly significant in the context of great power competition, highlighting the importance of controlling underwater battlefields [7][41] - Deep-sea technology has been recognized as an emerging industry in the 2025 government work report, indicating a shift towards resource exploration and development in deep-sea environments [52][54] Financial Performance - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations from 2022 to 2024, with revenue growth rates of -11.95%, -16.31%, and -11.65%, respectively, while net profit growth rates were -31.09%, -47.23%, and -26.11% [30] - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of improvement with revenue and net profit growth rates of 42.73% and 700.30%, respectively [30] Product and Technology - Underwater acoustic technology is essential for underwater detection, communication, navigation, and defense, with a wide range of applications in naval vessels, UUVs, and underwater observation networks [8][9] - The company is a key supplier of underwater acoustic equipment in China, with its products covering various aspects of underwater information detection and transmission [24][25] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from multiple investment projects scheduled for completion between 2025 and 2026, which will support future demand [38][40] - The integration of specialized electronic and underwater acoustic businesses is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge and operational efficiency [9][35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.31 CNY based on a PE of 20 for 2025 [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of photovoltaic conductive pastes, with a focus on low-silver and high-copper paste solutions, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years [3][13]. - The transition from PERC to N-type TOPCon technology in 2024 presents a significant opportunity for the company, as it has a first-mover advantage in developing conductive pastes for this new technology [2][34]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 164 billion CNY in 2025 and 210 billion CNY in 2027, alongside a steady increase in net profit [4][64]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 96 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 155%, and is expected to reach 154 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 60% increase [1][4]. - The gross margin has remained stable around 10%, with net profit margins showing fluctuations, expected to be 3.9% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024 [1][4]. - R&D expenses accounted for 3.2% and 3.1% of total revenues in 2023 and 2024, respectively, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift in the photovoltaic conductive paste market, where domestic manufacturers are gaining market share from international players, with a projected market share of 82% by 2024 for leading domestic companies [2][30]. - The introduction of high-copper paste solutions is part of the company's strategy to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the photovoltaic industry, which is under pressure to lower production costs [3][40]. - The company has developed a unique low-silver metallization solution that combines seed layer paste with high-copper paste, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [3][51].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology, targeting a price of 11.06 CNY, representing a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 8.28 CNY [6][58]. Core Insights - Qianli Technology, formerly known as Lifan Technology, is undergoing a significant transformation towards AI and smart vehicle integration, particularly after the entry of founder Yin Qi from Megvii Technology [1][2]. - The company is leveraging partnerships with Geely and Cao Cao Mobility to enhance its smart driving capabilities and develop a comprehensive ecosystem for autonomous vehicles [3][36]. - Financial projections indicate substantial growth in net profit, with expected figures of 0.81 billion CNY, 1.33 billion CNY, and 2.36 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 64.6%, and 78.4% respectively [3][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Management Changes and Strategic Transformation - Qianli Technology has evolved from Lifan Technology, which was established in 1992, initially focusing on motorcycle engines and later expanding into passenger vehicles [1][13]. - The company underwent two major restructurings, with Geely and the Chongqing Liangjiang Fund becoming significant stakeholders post-bankruptcy in 2020, leading to a strategic pivot towards AI and smart vehicles [1][16]. - In 2024, the company rebranded to Qianli Technology, emphasizing its commitment to smart and international development [1][19]. 2. AI and Smart Driving Strategy - The partnership with Geely has enabled Qianli Technology to develop the "Qianli Haohan" smart driving system, which encompasses various levels of autonomous driving capabilities [2][28]. - The company is also collaborating with Cao Cao Mobility to launch Robotaxi services, marking a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving in China [3][36]. - Qianli Technology is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly in large model applications and smart cockpit solutions, to improve user interaction and vehicle intelligence [48][51]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for Qianli Technology indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 8.33 billion CNY, 10.02 billion CNY, and 12.44 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 20.3%, and 24.1% respectively [53][54]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve, reaching 9.99%, 10.66%, and 11.08% over the same period [54]. - Valuation comparisons with peers in the smart driving and Robotaxi sectors suggest a favorable outlook, with a target market capitalization of 500 billion CNY by 2025 [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in waste-to-energy in Hunan Province, focusing on stable revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% in revenue and 11.0% in net profit from 2019 to 2024 [9][18]. - The company has a strong cash flow that supports high dividend payouts, with a commitment to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 50% in the long term [9][27]. - The integration of waste incineration and IDC (Intelligent Data Center) presents significant collaboration potential, especially in the Changsha project and overseas market expansion [9][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Hunan Province Waste-to-Energy Leader - The company has established itself as a leader in solid waste treatment, focusing on waste incineration power generation, with operational capacity reaching 11,800 tons per day as of Q1 2025 [14][30]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 536.28 million yuan, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [9][18]. 2. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The operating cash flow has shown a steady increase, with a CAGR of 7.5% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 971 million yuan in 2024 [22][27]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with total dividends exceeding 1.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [27][29]. 3. Domestic and International Expansion - The company has a significant market share in Hunan, with a 46.31% share in the waste incineration market as of 2023, and is expanding its international footprint with projects in Kyrgyzstan [30][34]. - The acquisition of 63% of Renhe Environment enhances the company's operational capabilities and market reach, allowing for better integration of waste management services [52][54]. 4. Profitability and Competitive Advantage - The company benefits from high electricity prices and efficient operations, with a gross profit margin of 68.45% in 2024, significantly higher than industry peers [41][42]. - The average electricity price in Hunan is 0.45 yuan per kWh, ranking second nationally, which contributes to the company's strong profitability [41][42]. 5. Synergy with IDC - The collaboration between waste incineration and IDC is expected to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operational costs, with a focus on sustainable and clean energy solutions [57][60]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage government policies promoting green computing and energy efficiency, aiming for a PUE of 1.3 by 2030 [75].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][7][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 297 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 2.59 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue for the full year 2024, with a total of 1.736 billion yuan, down 9.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.586 million yuan, down 42.18% year-on-year [1][7]. - The report highlights that the company is building momentum for future growth through increased contracts and inventory, with a significant rise in new sales contracts and inventory levels [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue was 1,736 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, down 42.2% [3][8]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 11.2% to 1,932 million yuan, with net profit projected to increase significantly by 582.2% to 127 million yuan [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is 0.16 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 89 [3][8]. Business Segment Analysis - **Digital Finance**: Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.043 billion yuan, a decline of 9.2%, accounting for 60.1% of total revenue [7]. - **Big Data**: Anticipated revenue of 574 million yuan in 2024, down 7.4%, representing 33.1% of total revenue [7]. - **Comprehensive Financial Services**: Expected revenue of 119 million yuan, down 20.3%, making up 6.8% of total revenue [7]. Market Expansion - The company has established a foothold in Southeast Asia, with overseas revenue of 129 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and overseas contracts now account for 20% of total contracts [7][8]. - The report notes that the company has secured significant contracts in Thailand and Malaysia, indicating a strategic push for global expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, a significant increase of 971.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 49.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investment, with a 38.7% growth in R&D expenses in Q1 2025, aimed at enhancing core technologies [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 240 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 500 million yuan, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, but a non-recurring net profit loss of 20 million yuan [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 49.6%, and the net profit margin was 10.8%, affected by increased expense ratios and significant credit impairment losses [2] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which is reflected in the growth of R&D expenses [2] Strategic Developments - The company is implementing a group strategy that has led to significant revenue growth across various product lines, with GEOVIS technology services generating 2.3 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [3] - The company plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through a private placement to support the construction of various platforms, including the "Sky Information Cloud" and "Low Altitude Cloud" services [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.26 billion yuan, 5.58 billion yuan, and 7.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 492 million yuan, 657 million yuan, and 854 million yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on operational improvements and performance potential [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the fourth largest airline in China, with a significant restructuring following its bankruptcy in 2021, leading to improved operational efficiency and performance recovery [7]. - The company benefits from a high proportion of operating lease aircraft, providing greater flexibility and resilience compared to competitors, alongside investments in various industry chain companies that are expected to enhance profitability as the aviation sector improves [7]. - The company is expected to leverage its geographical advantages, particularly from the Hainan Free Trade Port development, to capitalize on growth opportunities [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a significant increase from 58,641 million RMB in 2023 to 92,311 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.68% [6]. - The net profit forecast indicates a recovery from a loss of 921 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 5,684 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a strong turnaround in profitability [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.02 RMB in 2024 to 0.13 RMB in 2027, indicating a positive trend in shareholder returns [6]. Operational Metrics - The company achieved a passenger volume of 23.06 million in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with international passenger volume surging by 78.3% [7]. - The passenger load factor reached 83% in 2023, showing an improvement of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the aircraft utilization rate surpassed the industry average for the first time in seven years [7]. - The company’s unit revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK) reached 0.53 RMB, ranking third in the industry and reflecting a significant increase compared to 2019 levels [7].